Fit for Purpose? The Suitability of Oral Health Outcome Measures to Inform Policy

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

Oral health research and program evaluation should consider alternative outcome measures for population oral health other than the DMFT index.

Determinants of multimorbidity in older adults in Iran: a cross-sectional study using latent class analysis on the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity, defined as the presence of two or more long-term health conditions in an individual, is one of the most significant challenges facing health systems worldwide. This study aimed to identify determinants of classes of multimorbidity among older adults in Iran.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a cross-sectional sample of older adults (aged ≥ 60 years) from the second stage of the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program in southern Iran, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify patterns of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to investigate factors associated with each multimorbidity class, including age, gender, education, household income, physical activity, smoking status, and polypharmacy.

RESULTS

In 2,426 study participants (mean age 69 years, 52% female), the overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 80.2%. Among those with multimorbidity, 3 latent classes were identified. These comprised: class 1, individuals with a low burden of multisystem disease (56.9%); class 2, individuals with predominantly cardiovascular-metabolic disorders (25.8%) and class 3, individuals with predominantly cognitive and metabolic disorders (17.1%). Compared with men, women were more likely to belong to class 2 (odds ratio [OR] 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-2.54) and class 3 (OR 4.52, 95% CI 3.22-6.35). Polypharmacy was associated with membership class 2 (OR 3.52, 95% CI: 2.65-4.68) and class 3 (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.28-2.63). Smoking was associated with membership in class 3 (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.01-2.08). Individuals with higher education levels (59%) and higher levels of physical activity (39%) were less likely to belong to class 3 (OR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.28-0.62) and to class 2 (OR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.38-0.97), respectively. Those at older age were less likely to belong to class 2 (OR 0.95).

DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS

A large proportion of older adults in Iran have multimorbidity. Female sex, polypharmacy, sedentary lifestyle, and poor education levels were associated with cardiovascular-metabolic multimorbidity and cognitive and metabolic multimorbidity. A greater understanding of the determinants of multimorbidity may lead to strategies to prevent its development.

Health outcomes after myocardial infarction: A population study of 56 million people in England

BACKGROUND

The occurrence of a range of health outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following MI and generate sociodemographic stratified risk charts in order to inform care recommendations in the post-MI period and underpin shared decision making.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This nationwide cohort study includes all individuals aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 229 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between 1 January 2008 and 31 January 2017 (final follow-up 27 March 2017). We analysed 11 non-fatal health outcomes (subsequent MI and first hospitalisation for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, dementia, depression, and cancer) and all-cause mortality. Of the 55,619,430 population of England, 34,116,257 individuals contributing to 145,912,852 hospitalisations were included (mean age 41.7 years (standard deviation [SD 26.1]); n = 14,747,198 (44.2%) male). There were 433,361 individuals with MI (mean age 67.4 years [SD 14.4)]; n = 283,742 (65.5%) male). Following MI, all-cause mortality was the most frequent event (adjusted cumulative incidence at 9 years 37.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [37.6,37.9]), followed by heart failure (29.6%; 95% CI [29.4,29.7]), renal failure (27.2%; 95% CI [27.0,27.4]), atrial fibrillation (22.3%; 95% CI [22.2,22.5]), severe bleeding (19.0%; 95% CI [18.8,19.1]), diabetes (17.0%; 95% CI [16.9,17.1]), cancer (13.5%; 95% CI [13.3,13.6]), cerebrovascular disease (12.5%; 95% CI [12.4,12.7]), depression (8.9%; 95% CI [8.7,9.0]), dementia (7.8%; 95% CI [7.7,7.9]), subsequent MI (7.1%; 95% CI [7.0,7.2]), and peripheral arterial disease (6.5%; 95% CI [6.4,6.6]). Compared with a risk-set matched population of 2,001,310 individuals, first hospitalisation of all non-fatal health outcomes were increased after MI, except for dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI [0.99,1.02];p = 0.468) and cancer (aHR 0.56; 95% CI [0.56,0.57];p < 0.001). The study includes data from secondary care only-as such diagnoses made outside of secondary care may have been missed leading to the potential underestimation of the total burden of disease following MI.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, up to a third of patients with MI developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had another MI, and 38% died within 9 years (compared with 35% deaths among matched individuals). The incidence of all health outcomes, except dementia and cancer, was higher than expected during the normal life course without MI following adjustment for age, sex, year, and socioeconomic deprivation. Efforts targeted to prevent or limit the accrual of chronic, multisystem disease states following MI are needed and should be guided by the demographic-specific risk charts derived in this study.

Perspectives of Healthcare Professionals on the Management and Treatment of Advanced Ovarian Cancer in the UK: Results From the KNOW-OC Survey

AIMS

New treatment options for advanced ovarian cancer have the potential to significantly change the treatment pathway in the UK. Understanding the structures and responsibilities of multidisciplinary teams/tumour boards (MDT) and regional variations will enable services to adapt more effectively to these changes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The KNOW-OC survey was conducted in 2020 to understand the views of a selected group of 66 healthcare professionals (HCPs) involved in advanced ovarian cancer care in UK hospitals.

RESULTS

The results showed that MDT involvement in the management of advanced ovarian cancer varied depending on pathway stage and line of relapse, with 98.5% of HCPs responding that the MDT was involved in decisions at initial presentation, but only 40.9% for patients with multiple relapses. The MDT was mostly responsible for determining whether the patients would undergo primary or interval cytoreductive surgery according to 75.8% of respondents, and most HCPs (80.3%) stated that tumour dissemination patterns were the most important factor influencing this decision. The most commonly assessed biomarkers at the time of the survey were CA125, gBRCA and tBRCA. Homologous recombination deficiency was viewed as the second most important factor for determining prognosis, but few centres had access to testing at the time of survey completion. The use of active surveillance was expected to decrease in favour of first-line targeted therapies. Nearly all (98.5%) HCPs agreed there is a role for secondary cytoreductive surgery for the treatment of recurrence (for carefully selected patients).

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlighted UK-specific geographical variation in the views of HCPs on MDT involvement and specific practices, such as molecular biomarker testing, and the overall treatment approach. Together, these findings improve the understanding of reported clinical practice across the UK for ovarian cancer and provide insight into decision-making associated with updates to recommendations for best practice (e.g. European Society for Medical Oncology/European Society of Gynaecological Oncology consensus statements) and the introduction of new treatment options.

Disease trajectories following myocardial infarction: insights from process mining of 145 million hospitalisation episodes

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of post-myocardial infarction (MI) disease risk to date is limited-yet the number of survivors of MI has increased dramatically in recent decades. We investigated temporally ordered sequences of all conditions following MI in nationwide electronic health record data through the application of process mining.

METHODS

We conducted a national retrospective cohort study of all hospitalisations (145,670,448 episodes; 34,083,204 individuals) admitted to NHS hospitals in England (1st January 2008-31st January 2017, final follow-up 27th March 2017). Through process mining, we identified trajectories of all major disease diagnoses following MI and compared their relative risk (RR) and all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) to a risk-set matched non-MI control cohort using Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric survival models.

FINDINGS

Among a total of 375,669 MI patients (130,758 females; 34.8%) and 1,878,345 matched non-MI patients (653,790 females; 34.8%), we identified 28,799 unique disease trajectories. The accrual of multiple circulatory diagnoses was more common amongst MI patients (RR 4.32, 95% CI 3.96-4.72) and conferred an increased risk of death (HR 1.32, 1.13-1.53) compared with matched controls. Trajectories featuring neuro-psychiatric diagnoses (including anxiety and depression) following circulatory disorders were markedly more common and had increased mortality post MI (HR ranging from 1.11 to 1.73) compared with non-MI individuals.

INTERPRETATION

These results provide an opportunity for early intervention targets for survivors of MI-such as increased focus on the psychological and behavioural pathways-to mitigate ongoing adverse disease trajectories, multimorbidity, and premature mortality.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation; Alan Turing Institute.

Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005-2019), by area deprivation profile: linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals

Background

Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK.

Methods

Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000-2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups.

Findings

In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5-104 were included, from a possible 2.9 m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13.2 years (12.7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69.7%) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (-0.45 years (99% CI: -0.45, -0.44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (-1.98 years (99% CI: -2.01, -1.95)).

Interpretation

This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and Administrative Data Research Wales.

A content review of state tobacco pre-emption laws in the US

OBJECTIVES

State ceiling pre-emption laws effectively limit the authority of local governments to regulate numerous public health issues, including tobacco. While general trends in the number of state tobacco pre-emption laws have been well-documented, less is known about the specific content of these laws. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the content of current state tobacco pre-emption laws and captures the salient features of these laws.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a comparative analysis of tobacco pre-emption laws in the United States.

METHODS

The study team collected data about tobacco pre-emption laws from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's State Tobacco Activities Tracking and Evaluation System. Trained legal researchers further verified and reviewed each law's content using the Westlaw database. A coding scheme was developed to capture and analyse these laws' most salient features.

RESULTS

State tobacco pre-emption laws use various terms to indicate the pre-emption of a local authority, including supersede, pre-empt, uniform, exclusive, and consistent. State laws cover numerous general topics and vary widely in explicit terminology of authorities and fields pre-empted. Several state laws included grandfathering exceptions and a few allowed exceptions for particular local jurisdictions.

CONCLUSIONS

State laws that undermine local tobacco control efforts from implementing more stringent laws pose a threat to public health. These laws vary widely in their scope across the U.S., and local jurisdictions should be empowered to enact and maintain tobacco control measures that protect their communities from the harms of tobacco use and exposure.

Cohort profile: Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE) Longitudinal Cohort

AIMS

The Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE) longitudinal cohort study aims to investigate health trajectories of individuals following hospitalization for myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

EMMACE is a linked multicentre prospective cohort study of 14 899 patients with MI admitted to 77 hospitals in England who participated in the EMMACE-3 and -4 studies between 1st November 2011 and 24th June 2015. Long-term follow-up of the EMMACE cohorts was conducted through the EMMACE-XL (27th September 2020 to 31st March 2022) and EMMACE-XXL (1st July 2021 to 1st July 2023) studies. EMMACE collected individual participant data for health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measured by three-level EuroQol five-dimension and visual analogy scale at admission, 1 month, 6 months, 12 months, and 10 years follow-up, as well as medications, medication adherence, beliefs about medicines, Satisfaction with Information about Medicines Scale, and illness perceptions. Participant data were deterministically linked to the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) for information on baseline treatments and comorbidities, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (for cause-specific hospitalization data), and the Office for National Statistics (for mortality data) up to 2020.

CONCLUSION

EMMACE is a nationwide prospective cohort that will provide unique insights into fatal and non-fatal outcomes, medication adherence, and HRQoL following MI.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01808027 and NCT01819103.

Impact of a Prior Cancer Diagnosis on Quality of Care and Survival Following Acute Myocardial Infarction: Retrospective Population-Based Cohort Study in England

BACKGROUND

An increasing proportion of patients with cancer experience acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We investigated differences in quality of AMI care and survival between patients with and without previous cancer diagnoses.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using Virtual Cardio-Oncology Research Initiative data. Patients aged 40+ years hospitalized in England with AMI between January 2010 and March 2018 were assessed, ascertaining previous cancers diagnosed within 15 years. Multivariable regression was used to assess effects of cancer diagnosis, time, stage, and site on international quality indicators and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 512 388 patients with AMI (mean age, 69.3 years; 33.5% women), 42 187 (8.2%) had previous cancers. Patients with cancer had significantly lower use of ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (mean percentage point decrease [mppd], 2.6% [95% CI, 1.8-3.4]) and lower overall composite care (mppd, 1.2% [95% CI, 0.9-1.6]). Poorer quality indicator attainment was observed in patients with cancer diagnosed in the last year (mppd, 1.4% [95% CI, 1.8-1.0]), with later stage disease (mppd, 2.5% [95% CI, 3.3-1.4]), and with lung cancer (mppd, 2.2% [95% CI, 3.0-1.3]). Twelve-month all-cause survival was 90.5% in noncancer controls and 86.3% in adjusted counterfactual controls. Differences in post-AMI survival were driven by cancer-related deaths. Modeling improving quality indicator attainment to noncancer patient levels showed modest 12-month survival benefits (lung cancer, 0.6%; other cancers, 0.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Measures of quality of AMI care are poorer in patients with cancer, with lower use of secondary prevention medications. Findings are primarily driven by differences in age and comorbidities between cancer and noncancer populations and attenuated after adjustment. The largest impact was observed in recent cancer diagnoses (<1 year) and lung cancer. Further investigation will determine whether differences reflect appropriate management according to cancer prognosis or whether opportunities to improve AMI outcomes in patients with cancer exist.

The time is now: making the case for a UK registry of deployment of radiology artificial intelligence applications

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based healthcare applications (apps) are rapidly evolving, and radiology is a target specialty for their implementation. In this paper, we put the case for a national deployment registry to track the spread of AI apps into clinical use in radiology in the UK. By gathering data on the specific locations, purposes, and people associated with AI app deployment, such a registry would provide greater transparency on their spread in the radiology field. In combination with other regulatory and audit mechanisms, it would provide radiologists and patients with greater confidence and trust in AI apps. At the same time, coordination of this information would reduce costs for the National Health Service (NHS) by preventing duplication of piloting activities. This commentary discusses the need for a UK-wide registry for such apps, its benefits and risks, and critical success factors for its establishment. We conclude by noting that a critical window of opportunity has opened up for the development of a deployment registry, before the current pattern of localised clusters of activity turns into the widespread proliferation of AI apps across clinical practice.

Using set visualisation to find and explain patterns of missing values: a case study with NHS hospital episode statistics data

OBJECTIVES

Missing data is the most common data quality issue in electronic health records (EHRs). Missing data checks implemented in common analytical software are typically limited to counting the number of missing values in individual fields, but researchers and organisations also need to understand multifield missing data patterns to better inform advanced missing data strategies for which counts or numerical summaries are poorly suited. This study shows how set-based visualisation enables multifield missing data patterns to be discovered and investigated.

DESIGN

Development and evaluation of interactive set visualisation techniques to find patterns of missing data and generate actionable insights. The visualisations comprised easily interpretable bar charts for sets, heatmaps for set intersections and histograms for distributions of both sets and intersections.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Anonymised admitted patient care health records for National Health Service (NHS) hospitals and independent sector providers in England. The visualisation and data mining software was run over 16 million records and 86 fields in the dataset.

RESULTS

The dataset contained 960 million missing values. Set visualisation bar charts showed how those values were distributed across the fields, including several fields that, unexpectedly, were not complete. Set intersection heatmaps revealed unexpected gaps in diagnosis, operation and date fields because diagnosis and operation fields were not filled up sequentially and some operations did not have corresponding dates. Information gain ratio and entropy calculations allowed us to identify the origin of each unexpected pattern, in terms of the values of other fields.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show how set visualisation reveals important insights about multifield missing data patterns in large EHR datasets. The study revealed both rare and widespread data quality issues that were previously unknown, and allowed a particular part of a specific hospital to be pinpointed as the origin of rare issues that NHS Digital did not know exist.

Sex differences in health-related quality of life trajectories following myocardial infarction: national longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate sex-based differences in baseline values and longitudinal trajectories of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a large cohort of myocardial infarction (MI) survivors after adjusting for other important factors.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Population-based longitudinal study the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events study linked with national cardiovascular registry. Data were collected from 77 hospitals in England between 1 November 2011 and 24 June 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

9551 patients with MI. Patients were eligible for the study if they were ≥18 years of age.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

HRQoL was measured by EuroQol five-dimension, visual analogue scale (EQ-5D, EQ VAS) survey at baseline, 1, 6 and 12 months after discharge. Multi-level linear and logistic regression models coupled with inverse probability weighted propensity scoring were used to evaluate sex differences in HRQoL following MI.

RESULTS

Of the 9551 patients with MI and complete data on sex, 25.1% (2,397) were women. At baseline, women reported lower HRQoL (EQ VAS (mean (SD) 59.8 (20.4) vs 64.5 (20.9)) (median (IQR) 60.00 (50.00-75.00) vs 70.00 (50.00-80.00))) (EQ-5D (mean (SD) 0.66 (0.31) vs 0.74 (0.28)) (median (IQR) 0.73 (0.52-0.85) vs 0.81 (0.62-1.00))) and were more likely to report problems in each HRQoL domain compared with men. In the covariate balanced and adjusted multi-level model sex differences in HRQoL persisted during follow-up, with lower EQ VAS and EQ-5D scores in women compared with men (adjusted EQ VAS model sex coefficient: -4.41, 95% CI -5.16 to -3.66 and adjusted EQ-5D model sex coefficient: -0.07, 95% CI -0.08 to -0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Women have lower HRQoL compared with men at baseline and during 12 months follow-up after MI. Tailored interventions for women following an MI could improve their quality of life.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04598048, NCT01808027, NCT01819103.

Risk scores in anaesthesia: the future is hard to predict

External validation helps to assess whether a given risk prediction model will perform well in a target population. Validation is an important step in maintaining the utility of risk prediction models, as their ability to provide reliable risk estimates will deteriorate over time (calibration drift).

POS1521-HPR UNDERSTANDING AND IDENTIFYING KEY CONTEXTUAL FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE PRACTITIONER-PATIENT ENCOUNTER IN THE MANAGEMENT OF OSTEOARTHRITIS: A QUALITATIVE SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Background

Contextual factors (CFs) related to the patient, healthcare practitioners, and their therapeutic relationship are integral to the overall treatment effect of any given intervention (1). In osteoarthritis (OA), around 75% of the treatment effect is directly attributable to CFs (2). Identifying and understanding the role of CFs may encourage healthcare practitioners to develop and enhance the contextual aspects of care.

Objectives

To explore and understand the experience and perspectives of patients and health practitioners regarding CFs in consultations for OA.

Methods

A systematic search was conducted between March 15 and May 18, 2020, on the following databases: MEDLINE via Ovid, EMBASE, AMED, PsycINFO and CINAHL. The search for unpublished studies included ProQuest Dissertations and Google Scholar. The search was not limited to any language or publication year. The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) methodology for quality assessment, study selection, data extraction and synthesis were used. Findings were assessed for credibility, categorised based on similarity in meaning and subjected to a meta-aggregation. The ConQual approach was used to assess the confidence of the synthesised findings (3).

Results

Of 1808 records generated from the systematic search of databases and grey literature, eight studies were included in the meta-aggregation (Figure 1). All included papers were moderate to high quality based on the JBI qualitative critical appraisal tool. Meta-aggregation generated three synthesised findings. According to the ConQual criteria, all the synthesised findings’ level of evidence was rated as moderate (Table 1). The key, potentially modifiable, factors identified were positive communication; clear and relevant information provided by the health practitioner; patient expectation concerning their outcome and the consultation experience; sufficient consultation time; and easy access to consultations.

Table 1.

ConQual summary of findings

Synthesized findingType of researchDependabilityCredibilityConQual scoreI. People with OA will likely experience comprehensive and satisfactory management of their condition if the key contextual enhancers are implemented.QualitativeUnchanged*Downgrade 1 level**ModerateII. Health providers acknowledged that information provision and efficient communication skills are likely to enhance management during consultations for OA.QualitativeUnchanged*Downgrade 1 level**ModerateIII. Effective consultations are affected by an intersection of organizational challenges and patient and provider characteristics. Limited experience with OA of some practitioners, unrealistic patients’ expectations, and short consultation duration are barriers that need to be adjusted for better management.QualitativeUnchanged*Downgrade 1 level**Moderate

* The average score was (4/5) for dependability.

** Downgraded one level due to a mix of unequivocal and credible findings.

Figure 1.

PRISMA flowchart of the study selection and inclusion process

Conclusion

This qualitative systematic review has defined three synthesized findings. Identification of modifiable CFs that are deemed important by both patients and health practitioners can inform the development of a training package for healthcare professional.

References

[1]Di Blasi Z, Harkness E, Ernst E, Georgiou A, Kleijnen J. Influence of context effects on health outcomes: a systematic review. The Lancet. 2001;357(9258):757-762.

[2]Zou K, Wong J, Abdullah N, Chen X, Smith T, Doherty M et al. Examination of overall treatment effect and the proportion attributable to contextual effect in osteoarthritis: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. 2016;75(11):1964-1970.

[3]Munn, Z., Porritt, K., Lockwood, C., Aromataris, E. & Pearson, A. 2014. Establishing confidence in the output of qualitative research synthesis: the ConQual approach. BMC medical research methodology, 14, 1-7.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Walking-related knee contact forces and associations with knee pain across people with mild, moderate and severe radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate knee contact forces (KCFs), and their relationships with knee pain, across grades of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) severity.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional exploratory analysis of 164 participants with medial knee OA. Radiographic severity was classified as mild (grade 2), moderate (grade 3) or severe (grade 4) using the Kellgren & Lawrence (KL) scale. Walking knee pain was assessed using an 11-point numerical rating scale. External knee adduction moment (external KAM) and internal muscle forces were used to calculate medial, lateral and total KCFs using a musculoskeletal computational model. Force-time series across stance phase of gait were compared across KL grades using Statistical Parametric Mapping. Associations between KCFs and pain across KL grades were assessed using linear models.

RESULTS

Medial KCFs during early and middle stance were higher in participants with KL3 and KL4 compared to those with KL2. In contrast, lateral KCFs were higher in those with KL2 compared to KL3 and KL4 in middle to late stance. The external loading component (i.e., KAM) of the medial KCF during middle to late stance was also greater in participants with KL3 and KL4 compared to those with KL2, whereas the internal (i.e., muscle) component was greater in those with KL3 and KL4 compared to KL3 during early stance. There were no associations between medial KCF and knee pain in any KL grade.

CONCLUSIONS

Medial and lateral KCFs differ between mild, moderate and severe radiographic knee OA but are not associated with knee pain severity for any radiographic OA grade.

Differentiating border-zone tissue from post-infarct scar using ripple mapping during VT ablation

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Areas of post-infarct ventricular scar and border-zone slow conduction are often highlighted on a bipolar voltage map with generalized values 0.5mV–1.5mV. The true voltage that differentiates regions of conducting from non-conducting tissue is unknown. Ripple Mapping (RM)displays allows conducting tissue to be seen as areas supporting Ripple activation, and non-conducting tissue as areas devoid of Ripple activation.

Purpose

We describe application of Ripple Maps to differentiate areas of scar from conducting tissue during ischemic VT ablation.

Methods

Dense bipolar voltage maps were created (Pentaray catheter, pacing 80-100bpm) and presented as a single value (e.g. 0.5mV-0.5mV) to binarize the color display (red and purple). RMs were superimposed on the voltage map and played above a pre-set noise threshold (&gt;0.05mV). The voltage map mV limit was sequentially reduced ("border-zone threshold") until only those areas devoid of Ripple bars appeared red. The surrounding border-zone supporting ripple activation thus appeared purple. We performed off-line analysis of border-zone voltage thresholds from a series of RM guided VT ablations.

Results

10 consecutive patients (LVEF 32.3±7.5%) with remote myocardial infarction underwent VT ablation (median 19days (IQR 8-33) since last VT). Bipolar voltage mapping (5873±2841 points, median shell area 224cm2), revealed voltages&lt;0.5mV covered a median 11% (IQR 7-17%) of the shell. The border-zone voltage threshold was median 0.2mV (range 0.12mV - 0.3mV). Non-conducting tissue below this value covered only median 5% (IQR 3-7%) of the entire shell. VT was mappable in 4 patients, and the isthmus was bordered by tissue below the same border-zone threshold as found in normal rhythm. The border-zone was homogenized with ablation(40-50W, median 29 mins (IQR 22-33), and clinical VT was non-inducible in all, and 9 pts (91%) remain sustained VT-free at median 90-day follow-up (IQR 23-139), 2-weeks blanking period).

Picture 1 presents an infero-lateral LV infarct collected in an RV paced rhythm (7340points) and displayed at conventional bipolar voltage settings 0.5-1.5mV. Tissue with voltages&lt;0.5mV appear red and cover 30% of the total area. In this case, this border-zone voltage threshold was defined as 0.25mV. Non-conducting tissue, seen as areas devoid of ripple bars below this value, now appeared as red, and covered only 11% of the total area. Picture 2 demonstrates the morphologies of 4 poorly tolerated induced VTs during this case. Each had near perfect pacemaps to the exit sites of border-zone tissue defined using this approach, and were targets for ablation resulting in complete non-inducibility and no VT recurrence in early follow-up.

Conclusion

The bipolar voltage that differentiates putative scar from bordering conducting tissue is unique to each patient, and far lower than 0.5mV-1.5mV. RM presents a practical approach to visualize the border-zone activation to guide ablation.

How does hip osteoarthritis differ from knee osteoarthritis?

Hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) are leading causes of global disability. Most research to date has focused on the knee, with results often extrapolated to the hip, and this extends to treatment recommendations in clinical guidelines. Extrapolating results from research on knee OA may limit our understanding of disease characteristics specific to hip OA, thereby constraining development and implementation of effective treatments. This review highlights differences between hip and knee OA with respect to prevalence, prognosis, epigenetics, pathophysiology, anatomical and biomechanical factors, clinical presentation, pain and non-surgical treatment recommendations and management.

Maintenance therapy of patients with recurrent epithelial ovarian carcinoma with the anti-tumor-associated-mucin-1 antibody gatipotuzumab: results from a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, phase II study

BACKGROUND

Gatipotuzumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody recognizing the carbohydrate-induced epitope of the tumor-associated mucin-1 (TA-MUC1). This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of switch maintenance therapy with gatipotuzumab in patients with TA-MUC1-positive recurrent ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary high-grade serous peritoneal cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase II trial, patients with at least stable disease (SD) following chemotherapy were randomized 2:1 to receive intravenous gatipotuzumab (500 mg followed by 1700 mg 1 week later) or placebo every 3 weeks until tumor progression or unacceptable toxicity occurred. Stratification factors were the number of prior chemotherapy lines (2 versus 3-5), response versus SD after the most recent chemotherapy, and progression-free survival (PFS) <6 versus 6-12 months following the prior therapy. Primary endpoint was PFS according to modified immune-related RECIST 1.1 response criteria. Secondary endpoints were PFS at 6 months, safety, overall response rate, CA-125 progression, overall survival, quality of life, and pharmacokinetics.

RESULTS

Overall, 216 patients were randomized to gatipotuzumab (n  =  151) or placebo (n  =  65). Median PFS with gatipotuzumab was 3.5 months as compared with 3.5 months with placebo (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33, P  =  0.80). No advantage for gatipotuzumab over placebo was seen in the secondary efficacy endpoints or in any stratified subgroups. Gatipotuzumab was well tolerated, with mild to moderate infusion-related reactions being the most common adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Gatipotuzumab switch maintenance therapy does not improve outcome in TA-MUC1-positive ovarian cancer patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.govNCT01899599; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01899599.

Association of multimorbidity and changes in health-related quality of life following myocardial infarction: a UK multicentre longitudinal patient-reported outcomes study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is prevalent for people with myocardial infarction (MI), yet previous studies investigated single-health conditions in isolation. We identified patterns of multimorbidity in MI survivors and their associations with changes in HRQoL.

METHODS

In this national longitudinal cohort study, we analysed data from 9566 admissions with MI from 77 National Health Service hospitals in England between 2011 and 2015. HRQoL was measured using EuroQol 5 dimension (EQ5D) instrument and visual analogue scale (EQVAS) at hospitalisation, 6, and 12 months following MI. Latent class analysis (LCA) of pre-existing long-term health conditions at baseline was used to identify clusters of multimorbidity and associations with changes in HRQoL quantified using mixed effects regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 9566 admissions with MI (mean age of 64.1 years [SD 11.9], 7154 [75%] men), over half (5119 [53.5%] had multimorbidities. LCA identified 3 multimorbidity clusters which were severe multimorbidity (591; 6.5%) with low HRQoL at baseline (EQVAS 59.39 and EQ5D 0.62) which did not improve significantly at 6 months (EQVAS 59.92, EQ5D 0.60); moderate multimorbidity (4301; 47.6%) with medium HRQoL at baseline (EQVAS 63.08, EQ5D 0.71) and who improved at 6 months (EQVAS 71.38, EQ5D 0.76); and mild multimorbidity (4147, 45.9%) at baseline (EQVAS 64.57, EQ5D 0.75) and improved at 6 months (EQVAS 76.39, EQ5D 0.82). Patients in the severe and moderate groups were more likely to be older, women, and presented with NSTEMI. Compared with the mild group, increased multimorbidity was associated with lower EQ-VAS scores (adjusted coefficient: -5.12 [95% CI -7.04 to -3.19] and -0.98 [-1.93 to -0.04] for severe and moderate multimorbidity, respectively. The severe class was more likely than the mild class to report problems in mobility, OR 9.62 (95% confidence interval: 6.44 to 14.36), self-care 7.87 (4.78 to 12.97), activities 2.41 (1.79 to 3.26), pain 2.04 (1.50 to 2.77), and anxiety/depression 1.97 (1.42 to 2.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Among MI survivors, multimorbidity clustered into three distinct patterns and was inversely associated with HRQoL. The identified multimorbidity patterns and HRQoL domains that are mostly affected may help to identify patients at risk of poor HRQoL for which clinical interventions could be beneficial to improve the HRQoL of MI survivors.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01808027 and NCT01819103.

Prescription of oral anticoagulants and antiplatelets for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation: nationwide time series ecological analysis

AIMS

To investigate trends in the prescription of oral anticoagulants (OACs) and antiplatelet agents for atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prescription data for 450 518 patients with AF from 3352 General Practices in England, was obtained from the GRASP-AF registry, 2009-2018. Annualized temporal trends for OAC and antiplatelet prescription were reported according to eligibility based on stroke risk (CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥1 or >2, respectively). From 2009 to 2018, the prevalence of AF increased from 1.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-1.7%] to 2.4% (2.3-2.5%), and for those with AF the proportion prescribed OAC increased from 47.6% to 75.0% (P-trend < 0.001; relative risk 1.57, 95% CI 1.55-1.60) and for antiplatelet decreased from 37.4% to 9.2% (P-trend < 0.001). In early-years (2009-2013), eligible patients aged ≥80 years were less likely to be prescribed OAC than patients aged <80 years [odds ratio (OR) 0.55, 95% CI 0.51-0.59 for CHADS2≥1 in 2009] (all P-trends < 0.001). This 'OAC prescription gap' reduced over the study period (OR 0.93, 0.90-0.96 in 2018). Whilst the prescription of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) as a proportion of all OAC increased from 0.1% (95% CI 0.0-0.2%) in 2011 to 58.8% (58.4-59.2%) in 2018, it was inversely associated with patient age (P-trend < 0.001) and their risk of stroke.

CONCLUSION

Between 2009 and 2018, in England, the use of OAC for stroke prophylaxis in AF increased, with DOAC accounting for over half of OAC uptake in 2018. Despite a reduction in the OAC-prescription gap, a new paradox exists relating to DOAC prescription for the elderly and those at higher risk of stroke.

OP0302-HPR IDENTIFYING THE CONTEXTUAL FACTORS IN THE PATIENT-PRACTITIONER ENCOUNTER THAT HAVE THERAPEUTIC EFFECT: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS

Background:

Placebo or contextual effect is an integral part of the treatment effect (1). The factors related to this effect are “contextual factors” (CFs) (2). CFs may be categorised into five groups as factors related to practitioner, patient, practitioner-patient interaction, treatment and therapeutic environment (3). Several CFs have demonstrated their therapeutic effect, whereas others not (4). The majority of musculoskeletal pain relief result from CFs (5). Identifying the key CFs may encourage health practitioners to optimize the contextual aspects of care.

Objectives:

To identify the modifiable CFs that can improve clinical outcomes in published randomised controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods:

A systematic search was carried out, up until April 18th 2019, on the following databases: MEDLINE via Ovid, EMBASE, AMED, PsycINFO and Cochrane library. RCTs comparing contextual enhanced interventions versus non-enhanced control in adults for any health conditions were searched. The outcomes included both self-reported outcomes and objectively measured outcomes. The effect size and 95%confidence interval were calculated using the standard mean difference. Risk of bias was evaluated using the modified Cochrane tool. The random effects model was used to pool the results.

Results:

Of 3900 records generated from the systematic search, 15 trials (4615 participants) met the inclusion criteria, and 13 were included in this meta-analysis (Figure 1). Conditions studied included musculoskeletal [4], cardiovascular [2], irritable bowel syndrome [1], diabetes [1], asthma [1], GP or hospital patients [6]. Three CFs have been identified from these trials, including empathy, patient involvement and positive communication. All were found to be effective for patient experience i.e. satisfaction. Positive communication was also effective for symptoms but not objective outcomes (Table 1).

Table 1.

Summary of results.

OutcomeInterventionNumber of studies (Number of participants) SMD (95% CI)I2Patient experience outcomes,e.g. satisfactionEmpathy2 (137)0.45 (0.11, 0.79)42.2 %Patient involvement4 (1596)0.31 (0.21, 0.41)93.0 %Positive communication3 (793)0.38 (0.24, 0.52)93.9 %Symptomatic outcomes,e.g. painEmpathy1 (221)-0.18 (-0.45, 0.08)0.0 %Patient involvement1 (314)-0.05 (-0.27, 0.17)0.0 %Positive communication3 (658)0.20 (0.05, 0.35)64.8 %Objective outcomes,e.g. peak expiratory flowPositive communication2 (266)0.10 (-0.14, 0.34)66.6 %

Positive SMD favours intervention group. SMD= Standard mean difference, CI= Confidence interval, I2= heterogeneity.

Figure 1.

Summary of screening process.

Conclusion:

This systematic review has identified three CFs (empathy, patient involvement and positive communication) that have therapeutic effects for different conditions in trials, especially for self-reported outcomes. More research is needed to examine the clinical outcomes of CFs and to understand the influence of health practitioners on disease processes.

References:

[1]Zou K, Wong J, Abdullah N, Chen X, Smith T, Doherty M et al. Examination of overall treatment effect and the proportion attributable to contextual effect in osteoarthritis: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. 2016;75(11):1964-1970.

[2]Miller F, Kaptchuk T. The power of context: reconceptualizing the placebo effect. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine. 2008;101(5):222-225.

[3]Di Blasi Z, Harkness E, Ernst E, Georgiou A, Kleijnen J. Influence of context effects on health outcomes: a systematic review. The Lancet. 2001;357(9258):757-762.

[4]Howick J, Moscrop A, Mebius A, R Fanshawe T, Lewith G, L Bishop F et al. Effects of empathic and positive communication in healthcare consultations: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine. 2018;111(7):240–252.

[5]Rossettini G, Carlino E, Testa M. Clinical relevance of contextual factors as triggers of placebo and nocebo effects in musculoskeletal pain. BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders. 2018;19(1).

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared.

Assessing atrial fibrillation ablation priority during COVID-19 -does use of patient questionnaires help in stratification above physician assessment?

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) is largely offered for symptomatic relief. The ORBIT registry has shown that patients with a higher EHRA class and lower quality of life (QoL) scores (AFEQT score <65.7) are more likely to suffer emergency hospital admissions. To help prevent unplanned AF admissions and to best utilise the reduced capacity for elective work during the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become even more important to prioritise the most symptomatic AF patients for ablation. Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of a subjective symptom-based clinician prioritisation schema compared to objective patient-completed quality of life (QoL) scores. Methods: In July 2020, all elective cases awaiting AF ablation at our institution were categorised by their cardiologist as either category 1 (C1-urgent), category 2 (C2–priority, procedure to be done during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic) or category 3 (C3–routine, procedure may be delayed until post pandemic). This categorisation was based on review of clinic letters where EHRA AF symptom class or PROMS are not routinely recorded.  All patients in C2 and C3 were then posted an AF specific (AFEQT) and a generic (EQ5D) QoL questionnaire to complete. Physicians were blinded to patient responses on the QoL questionnaires. Results: Details of physician prioritisation and completed questionnaires were available for 85 patients (62 ± 10 years, PAF in 61%, males 66%). The 18 patients that had been categorised in C2 (priority) group were found to have a significantly lower AFEQT score (30.4, IQR 17.2-51.9) compared to the 67 patients classed in C3 (routine) group (56.5, IQR 32.1-74.1; p < 0.01)(Figure 1a). EQ5D scores also tended to be lower in the C2 patients (0.7, IQR 0.4-0.8) compared to C3 (0.8, IQR 0.6-0.9; p = 0.056) (Figure 1c). 16 (89%) patients in C2 had significant AF-related impact on QoL (as defined as AFEQT score <65.7) compared to 42 (63%) of patients in C3.  However, there was significant overlap between groups (Figure 1b). 4 patients in C3 had unplanned AF related hospital admissions while awaiting ablation, as compared to none in C2. The median AFEQT score of these 4 patients was 23.3, indicating that they were highly symptomatic despite being classified in C3 by their cardiologist. Conclusion : Physician assessments are moderately accurate in prioritising patients awaiting AF ablation. The addition of formal patient-completed QoL assessment such as with AFEQT, helps to identify the most symptomatic patients at risk of emergency hospital admission, and physicians should consider using these as part of routine assessment, especially during the COVID pandemic.

Atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulation in older people with frailty: a nationwide primary care electronic health records cohort study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in older people and is associated with increased stroke risk that may be reduced by oral anticoagulation (OAC). Frailty also increases with increasing age, yet the extent of OAC prescription in older people according to extent of frailty in people with AF is insufficiently described.

METHODS

An electronic health records study of 536,955 patients aged ≥65 years from ResearchOne in England (384 General Practices), over 15.4 months, last follow-up 11th April 2017. OAC prescription for AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, adjusted (demographic and treatments) risk of all-cause mortality, and subsequent cerebrovascular disease, bleeding and falls were estimated by electronic frailty index (eFI) category of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty.

RESULTS

AF prevalence and mean CHA2DS2-Vasc for those with AF increased with increasing eFI category (fit 2.9%, 2.2; mild 11.2%, 3.2; moderate 22.2%, 4.0; and severe 31.5%, 5.0). For AF with CHA2DS2-Vasc ≥2, OAC prescription was higher for mild (53.2%), moderate (55.6%) and severe (53.4%) eFI categories than fit (41.7%). In those with AF and eligible for OAC, frailty was associated with increased risk of death (HR for severe frailty compared with fit 4.09, 95% confidence interval 3.43-4.89), gastrointestinal bleeding (2.17, 1.45-3.25), falls (8.03, 4.60-14.03) and, among women, stroke (3.63, 1.10-12.02).

CONCLUSION

Among older people in England, AF and stroke risk increased with increasing degree of frailty; however, OAC prescription approximated 50%. Given competing demands of mortality, morbidity and stroke prevention, greater attention to stratified stroke prevention is needed for this group of the population.

Risk of cerebrovascular disease among 13 457 five-year survivors of childhood cancer: A population-based cohort study

Survivors of childhood cancer treated with cranial irradiation are at risk of cerebrovascular disease (CVD), but the risks beyond age 50 are unknown. In all, 13457 survivors of childhood cancer included in the population-based British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. Risk of CVD related hospitalisation was quantified by standardised hospitalisation ratios (SHRs), absolute excess risks and cumulative incidence. Overall, 315 (2.3%) survivors had been hospitalised at least once for CVD with a 4-fold risk compared to that expected (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7-4.3). Survivors of a central nervous system (CNS) tumour and leukaemia treated with cranial irradiation were at greatest risk of CVD (SHR = 15.6, 95% CI: 14.0-17.4; SHR = 5.4; 95% CI: 4.5-6.5, respectively). Beyond age 60, on average, 3.1% of CNS tumour survivors treated with cranial irradiation were hospitalised annually for CVD (0.4% general population). Cumulative incidence of CVD increased from 16.0% at age 50 to 26.0% at age 65 (general population: 1.4-4.2%). In conclusion, among CNS tumour survivors treated with cranial irradiation, the risk of CVD continues to increase substantially beyond age 50 up to at least age 65. Such survivors should be: counselled regarding this risk; regularly monitored for hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes; advised on life-style risk behaviours. Future research should include the recall for counselling and brain MRI to identify subgroups that could benefit from pharmacological or surgical intervention and establishment of a case-control study to comprehensively determine risk-factors for CVD.

Protocol for the development of the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC): data sources and methods to construct a population-based research platform to investigate multimorbidity

INTRODUCTION

Multimorbidity is widely recognised as the presence of two or more concurrent long-term conditions, yet remains a poorly understood global issue despite increasing in prevalence.We have created the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC) to provide an accessible research ready data asset to further the understanding of multimorbidity. Our objectives are to create a platform to support research which would help to understand prevalence, trajectories and determinants in multimorbidity, characterise clusters that lead to highest burden on individuals and healthcare services, and evaluate and provide new multimorbidity phenotypes and algorithms to the National Health Service and research communities to support prevention, healthcare planning and the management of individuals with multimorbidity.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The WMC has been created and derived from multisourced demographic, administrative and electronic health record data relating to the Welsh population in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. The WMC consists of 2.9 million people alive and living in Wales on the 1 January 2000 with follow-up until 31 December 2019, Welsh residency break or death. Published comorbidity indices and phenotype code lists will be used to measure and conceptualise multimorbidity.Study outcomes will include: (1) a description of multimorbidity using published data phenotype algorithms/ontologies, (2) investigation of the associations between baseline demographic factors and multimorbidity, (3) identification of temporal trajectories of clusters of conditions and multimorbidity and (4) investigation of multimorbidity clusters with poor outcomes such as mortality and high healthcare service utilisation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The SAIL Databank independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study (SAIL Project: 0911). Study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation and frailty: insights from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in older people with frailty and is associated with an increased risk of stroke and systemic embolism. Whilst oral anticoagulation is associated with a reduction in this risk, there is a lack of data on the safety and efficacy of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in people with frailty. This study aims to report clinical outcomes of patients with AF in the Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48 (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48) trial by frailty status.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis of 20,867 participants in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, representing 98.8% of those randomised. This double-blinded double-dummy trial compared two once-daily regimens of edoxaban (a DOAC) with warfarin. Participants were categorised as fit, living with pre-frailty, mild-moderate, or severe frailty according to a standardised index, based upon the cumulative deficit model. The primary efficacy endpoint was stroke or systemic embolism and the safety endpoint was major bleeding.

RESULTS

A fifth (19.6%) of the study population had frailty (fit: n = 4459, pre-frailty: n = 12,326, mild-moderate frailty: n = 3722, severe frailty: n = 360). On average over the follow-up period, the risk of stroke or systemic embolism increased by 37% (adjusted HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.19-1.58) and major bleeding by 42% (adjusted HR 1.42, 1.27-1.59) for each 0.1 increase in the frailty index (four additional health deficits). Edoxaban was associated with similar efficacy to warfarin in every frailty category, and a lower risk of bleeding than warfarin in all but those living with severe frailty.

CONCLUSIONS

Edoxaban was similarly efficacious to warfarin across the frailty spectrum and was associated with lower rates of bleeding except in those with severe frailty. Overall, with increasing frailty, there was an increase in stroke and bleeding risk. There is a need for high-quality, frailty-specific population randomised control trials to guide therapy in this vulnerable population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00781391 . First registered on 28 October 2008.

Spatio-temporal distribution of spinetail devil ray Mobula mobular in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean

The distribution of the spinetail devil ray Mobula mobular in the eastern tropical Atlantic remains poorly known compared to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. We used fishery-dependent data and generalized additive models to examine the environmental characteristics associated with the presence of M. mobular in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Results revealed that the distribution of M. mobular is significantly associated with seasonal upwelling systems in coastal and pelagic areas. Our model predicted the presence of the species in areas where there is evidence of its occurrence, such as the Angolan upwelling system and the coast of Ghana. In addition, our model predicted new hotspot areas, including locations around the Mauritanian upwelling system, the Guinea coast, offshore Ghana and the south coast of Angola and Brazil, where sample sizes are limited. Those areas, as well as the environmental preferences depicted by the model, provide valuable information about the habitat and ecology of the spinetail devil ray. Future research lines derived from this study, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Furthermore, in light of our results we discuss the improvements that are needed to contribute to the conservation and management of this vulnerable species.

Effect of exercise on pain processing and motor output in people with knee osteoarthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Guidelines recommend exercise as a core treatment for knee osteoarthritis. However, it is unclear how exercise affects measures of pain processing and motor function. The aim was to evaluate the effect of exercise on measures of pain processing and motor function in people with knee osteoarthritis.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, SCOPUS and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) for studies on knee osteoarthritis, of any design, evaluating pain processing and motor function before and after exercise. Data were pooled with random-effects meta-analysis. Study quality was assessed using the Downs and Black and quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies were eligible and 16 were included. Following acute exercise, pressure pain threshold increased local to the study limb (standardised mean difference [95% confidence interval (CI)] 0.26, [0.02, 0.51], n = 159 from 5 studies), but there was no statistically significant change remote from the study limb (0.09, [-0.11, 0.29], n = 90 from 4 studies). Following an exercise program (range 5-12 weeks) there were no statistically significant changes in pressure pain threshold (local 0.23, [-0.01, 0.47], n = 218 from 8 studies; remote 0.33 [-0.13, 0.79], n = 76 from 4 studies), temporal pain summation (0.38 [-0.08, 0.85], n = 122 from 3 studies) or voluntary quadriceps muscle activation (4.23% [-1.84 to 10.30], n = 139 from 4 studies).

CONCLUSION

Very-low quality evidence suggests that pressure pain threshold increases following acute exercise. Very-low quality evidence suggests that pressure pain threshold, temporal pain summation or voluntary quadriceps activation do not change statistically significantly following exercise programs.

Prescription of oral anticoagulation for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation according to frailty status: a national study of 536,995 primary care records

Background

At least 10 million people in Europe have a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF). People with AF commonly have concomitant frailty, rendering them vulnerable to various adverse outcomes. Whilst appropriate prescription of oral anticoagulation (OAC) is associated with reduced risk of stroke and mortality, there are fears of iatrogenic harm in older people with frailty.

Purpose

Previous studies give conflicting evidence of the association between frailty and OAC prescription and are based on small samples from select cohorts. Therefore, we provide data of the association between OAC prescription and frailty for a large representative cohort of patients with AF.

Methods

This cross-sectional study used EHR for 536,955 patients in England aged ≥65 years on 31/12/2015. Clinical Terms Version 3 (CTV-3) codes were used to identify AF and relevant past medical history (PMH, including: cancer, varices, intracranial or gastrointestinal haemorrhage). Frailty was determined according to the validated electronic frailty index (eFI, a cumulative deficit score of 36 possible deficits), and categorised into robust (0–0.12), mild (&gt;0.12–0.24), moderate (&gt;0.24–0.36) or severe (&gt;0.36) frailty.

Patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥2 were considered eligible for OAC prescription. Prescription of OAC among those eligible (warfarin or direct oral anticoagulant [DOAC]) or not was established using prescribing data within the EHR.

Poisson regression modelling was used to determine the odds of OAC prescription for each frailty category compared with non-frail (robust) individuals. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported with and without adjustment for sex, deprivation, PMH, concomitant prescription of medications that increase bleeding risk (including antiplatelets, steroids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatories).

Results

Of the cohort, 61,177 (11.4%) had AF. Of these, 58,204 (95.1%) were eligible for OAC, which was prescribed in 30,916 (53.1%) people. Individuals prescribed OAC were on average 5 months younger than those not prescribed OAC (80.1 vs 80.5 years, p&lt;0.001), and had a slightly higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (4.0 vs 3.8, p&lt;0.001). Frailty was identified in 54,734 (89.5%) patients with AF.

OAC was prescribed in 2,028 of 4,863 (41.7%) patients in the robust category; 10,221 of 19,198 (53.2%) with mild; 11,167 of 20,099 (55.6%) with moderate; and 7,500 of 14,044 (53.4%) with severe frailty. In comparison to the robust category, frailty was associated with higher odds of OAC prescription: mild frailty OR 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7); moderate 1.7 (1.6 to 1.9); severe 1.6 (1.5 to 1.7). Adjustment for confounding variables increased the magnitude of the association (Figure 1).

Conclusion

People with AF and advancing frailty were more likely to be prescribed an anticoagulant than those with AF who are robust. Specific safety and efficacy data for OAC are needed in people with AF and frailty to better inform clinical decision-making.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): CW was funded by the Hull-York Medical School. He is now an NIHR clinical lecturer.

First Direct Measurement of ^{22}Mg(α,p)^{25}Al and Implications for X-Ray Burst Model-Observation Comparisons

Type-I x-ray bursts can reveal the properties of an accreting neutron star system when compared with astrophysics model calculations. However, model results are sensitive to a handful of uncertain nuclear reaction rates, such as ^{22}Mg(α,p). We report the first direct measurement of ^{22}Mg(α,p), performed with the Active Target Time Projection Chamber. The corresponding astrophysical reaction rate is orders of magnitude larger than determined from a previous indirect measurement in a broad temperature range. Our new measurement suggests a less-compact neutron star in the source GS1826-24.

Association of cardiac rehabilitation and health-related quality of life following acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

To study the association of cardiac rehabilitation and physical activity with temporal changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS

Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events-3 is a nationwide longitudinal prospective cohort study of 4570 patients admitted with an AMI between 1 November 2011 and 17 September 2013. HRQoL was estimated using EuroQol 5-Dimension-3 Level Questionnaire at hospitalisation, 30 days, and 6 and 12 months following hospital discharge. The association of cardiac rehabilitation and self-reported physical activity on temporal changes in HRQoL was quantified using inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score and multilevel regression analyses.

RESULTS

Cardiac rehabilitation attendees had higher HRQoL scores than non-attendees at 30 days (mean EuroQol 5-Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-VAS) scores: 71.0 (SD 16.8) vs 68.6 (SD 19.8)), 6 months (76.0 (SD 16.4) vs 70.2 (SD 19.0)) and 12 months (76.9 (SD 16.8) vs 70.4 (SD 20.4)). Attendees who were physically active ≥150 min/week had higher HRQoL scores compared with those who only attended cardiac rehabilitation at 30 days (mean EQ-VAS scores: 79.3 (SD 14.6) vs 70.2 (SD 17.0)), 6 months (82.2 (SD 13.9) vs 74.9 (SD 16.7)) and 12 months (84.1 (SD 12.1) vs 75.6 (SD 17.0)). Cardiac rehabilitation and self-reported physical activity of ≥150 min/week were each positively associated with temporal improvements in HRQoL (coefficient: 2.12 (95% CI 0.68 to 3.55) and 4.75 (95% CI 3.16 to 6.34), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac rehabilitation was independently associated with temporal improvements in HRQoL at up to 12 months following hospitalisation, with such changes further improved in patients who were physically active.

Sex differences in health-related quality of life among acute myocardial infarction survivors: an inverse weighted propensity score analysis

Background

Over 800,000 women in the UK are living with coronary heart disease, which is the main cause of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Marked improvements have been noted in clinical outcomes following AMI due to improved use of evidence-based treatments. However, sex differences in outcomes following AMI persist, with limited evidence in the literature concerning patient reported outcomes such as health related quality of life (HRQoL).

Purpose

To investigate sex differences in HRQoL following AMI.

Methods

Data on HRQoL among 9,566 survivors of AMI were collected from 77 National Health Service hospitals in England between 1 November 2011 and 24 June 2015. HRQoL at time of hospitalisation with an AMI as well as at 1, 6 and 12 months post discharge were collected using the self-reported EuroQol five dimension questionnaire which contains a descriptive system (EQ-5D ranging from −0.5 “worse than death” to 1 “full health”) and a visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS ranging from 0 “worst imaginable health state” to 100 “best imaginable health state”). Multilevel regression modelling coupled with inverse probability weighting propensity score analysis was used to investigate longitudinal trajectories of sex differences in perceived HRQoL following AMI.

Results

Overall, there were 2,397 (25%) women in the study. HRQoL improved over time, however, women had a lower baseline HRQoL compared with men (EQ-VAS mean (SD) 59.8 (20.4) vs. 64.5 (20.9), and EQ-5D median (IQR) 0.73 (0.52 to 0.88) vs. 0.81 (0.62 to 1.00). Sex differences in HRQoL over time persisted, with women having a reduced HRQoL (EQ-VAS coefficient: −4.41, 95% CI: −5.16 to −3.66 and EQ-5D coefficient: −0.07, −0.08 to −0.06) and across the individual EQ-5D dimensions women were more likely to report problems with anxiety (odds ratio 2.03, 95% CI: 1.80 to 2.29), mobility (1.82, 1.58 to 2.09), self-care (1.75, 1.47 to 2.08), usual activities (1.70, 1.52 to 1.89) and pain (1.59, 1.45 to 1.75).

Conclusion

Although quality of life improves for AMI survivors, women have a lower baseline and worse recovery compared with men.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship