Overturning circulation, nutrient limitation, and warming in the Glacial North Pacific

Although the Pacific Ocean is a major reservoir of heat and CO₂, and thus an important component of the global climate system, its circulation under different climatic conditions is poorly understood. Here, we present evidence that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the North Pacific was better ventilated at intermediate depths and had surface waters with lower nutrients, higher salinity, and warmer temperatures compared to today. Modeling shows that this pattern is well explained by enhanced Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC), which brings warm, salty, and nutrient-poor subtropical waters to high latitudes. Enhanced PMOC at the LGM would have lowered atmospheric CO₂-in part through synergy with the Southern Ocean-and supported an equable regional climate, which may have aided human habitability in Beringia, and migration from Asia to North America.

Assessing whether universal coverage with insecticide-treated nets has been achieved: is the right indicator being used?

Background/methods

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the primary tool for malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa, and have been responsible for an estimated two-thirds of the reduction in the global burden of malaria in recent years. While the ultimate goal is high levels of ITN use to confer protection against infected mosquitoes, it is widely accepted that ITN use must be understood in the context of ITN availability. However, despite nearly a decade of universal coverage campaigns, no country has achieved a measured level of 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people in a national survey. Eighty-six public datasets from 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2005–2017) were used to explore the causes of failure to achieve universal coverage at the household level, understand the relationships between the various ITN indicators, and further define their respective programmatic utility.

Results

The proportion of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people did not exceed 60% at the national level in any survey, except in Uganda’s 2014 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). At 80% population ITN access, the expected proportion of households with 1 ITN for 2 people is only 60% (p = 0.003 R² = 0.92), because individuals in households with some but not enough ITNs are captured as having access, but the household does not qualify as having 1 ITN for 2 people. Among households with 7–9 people, mean population ITN access was 41.0% (95% CI 36.5–45.6), whereas only 6.2% (95% CI 4.0–8.3) of these same households owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people. On average, 60% of the individual protection measured by the population access indicator is obscured when focus is put on the household “universal coverage” indicator. The practice of limiting households to a maximum number of ITNs in mass campaigns severely restricts the ability of large households to obtain enough ITNs for their entire family.

Conclusions

The two household-level indicators—one representing minimal coverage, the other only ‘universal’ coverage—provide an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of personal protection and the success of an ITN distribution programme. Under current ITN distribution strategies, the global malaria community cannot expect countries to reach 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people at a national level. When programmes assess the success of ITN distribution activities, population access to ITNs should be considered as the better indicator of “universal coverage,” because it is based on people as the unit of analysis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2505-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Design, Implementation, and Evaluation of a School Insecticide-Treated Net Distribution Program in Cross River State, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

In 2013, the World Health Organization recommended distribution through schools, health facilities, community health workers, and mass campaigns to maintain coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). We piloted school distribution in 3 local government areas (LGAs) of Cross River State, Nigeria.

METHODS

From January to March 2011, all 3 study sites participated in a mass ITN campaign. Baseline data were collected in June 2012 (N=753 households) and school distribution began afterward. One ITN per student was distributed to 4 grades once a year in public schools. Obubra LGA distributed ITNs in 2012, 2013, and 2014 and Ogoja LGA in 2013 and 2014 while Ikom LGA served as a comparison site. Pregnant women in all sites were eligible to receive ITNs through standard antenatal care (ANC). Endline survey data (N=1,450 households) were collected in March 2014. Data on ITN ownership, population access to an ITN, and ITN use were gathered and analyzed. Statistical analysis used contingency tables and chi-squared tests for univariate analysis, and a concentration index was calculated to assess equity in ITN ownership.

RESULTS

Between baseline and endline, household ownership of at least 1 ITN increased in the intervention sites, from 50% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44.7, 54.3) to 76% (95% CI: 71.2, 81.0) in Ogoja and from 51% (95% CI: 35.3, 66.7) to 78% (95% CI: 71.5, 83.1) in Obubra, as did population access to ITN, from 36% (95% CI: 32.0, 39.5) to 53% (95% CI: 48.0, 58.0) in Ogoja and from 34% (95% CI: 23.2, 45.6) to 55% in Obubra (95% CI: 48.4, 60.9). In contrast, ITN ownership declined in the comparison site, from 64% (95% CI: 56.4, 70.8) to 43% (95% CI: 37.4, 49.4), as did population ITN access, from 47% (95% CI: 40.0, 53.7) to 26% (95% CI: 21.9, 29.9). Ownership of school ITNs was nearly as equitable (concentration index 0.06 [95% CI: 0.02, 0.11]) as for campaign ITNs (-0.03 [95% CI: -0.08, 0.02]), and there was no significant oversupply or undersupply among households with ITNs. Schools were the most common source of ITNs at endline and very few households (<2%) had nets from both school and ANC.

CONCLUSION

ITN distribution through schools and ANC provide complementary reach and can play an effective role in achieving and maintaining universal coverage. More research is needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such continuous distribution channels in combination with, or as a potential replacement for, subsequent mass campaigns.

Impact of a 15-month multi-channel continuous distribution pilot on ITN ownership and access in Eastern Region, Ghana

Background

Insecticide-treated nets are a key intervention for malaria prevention. While mass distribution can rapidly scale up ITN coverage, multiple channels may be needed to sustain high levels of ITN access and ownership. In Ghana’s Eastern Region, a continuous ITN distribution pilot, started in October 2012, 18–24 months after a mass campaign. The pilot distributed ITNs through antenatal care services (ANC), child welfare clinic services (CWC) through the Expanded Programme on Immunization, and to students in two classes of primary schools.

Methods

ITN ownership and access were evaluated through two cross-sectional surveys, conducted at baseline in April 2012, 11–15 months after the mass campaign, and at endline in December 2013, after 1 year of continuous distribution. A representative sample was obtained using a multi-stage cluster sampling design. Household heads were interviewed using a structured questionnaire.

Results

Household ownership of at least one ITN was 91.3% (95% CI 88.8–93.9) at baseline and was not statistically significant at endline 18 months later at 88.3% (95% CI 84.9–91.0) (p = 0.10). Ownership of at least 1 ITN per two people significantly decreased from 51.3% (95% CI 47.1–55.4) to 40.2% (95% CI 36.4–44.6) (p < 0.01). Population access to an ITN within the household also significantly decreased from 74.5% (95% CI 71.2–77.7) at baseline to 66.4% (95% CI 62.9–69.9) at endline (p < 0.01). The concentration index score for any CD channel was slightly positive (0.10; 95% CI 0.04–0.15).

Conclusion

Thirty-one months after the mass campaign, the 15 months of continuous distribution activities had maintained levels of household ownership at least one ITN, but household ownership of one ITN for every two people and population access to ITN had declined. Ownership and access were higher with the CD programme than without. However, the number of ITNs delivered via ANC, CWC and two primary school classes were insufficient to sustain coverage targets. Future programmes should implement continuous distribution strategies fully within 1 year after a campaign or widen eligibility criteria (such as increase the number of classes) during the first year of implementation to make up for programme delays.

Evaluation of a continuous community-based ITN distribution pilot in Lainya County, South Sudan 2012-2013

Background

Continuous distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) has now been accepted as one way of sustaining ITN universal coverage. Community-based channels offer an interesting means of delivering ITNs to households to sustain universal ITN coverage. The objective of this study was to provide proof of concept for this channel.

Methods

A 9-month, community-based, distribution pilot was implemented beginning 1 year after a mass campaign in Lainya County, South Sudan from 2012 to 2013. Following social mobilization, community members could request an ITN from a net coupon holder. Eligibility criteria included having lost an ITN, giving birth outside of the health facility, or not having enough ITNs for all household members. After verification, households could exchange the coupon for an ITN at a distribution point. The evaluation was a pre/post design using representative household surveys with two-stage cluster sampling and a sample size of 600 households per survey.

Results

At endline, 78% of respondents were aware of the scheme and 89% of those also received an ITN through community-based distribution. Population access to ITNs nearly doubled, from 38% at baseline to 66% after the pilot. Household ownership of any ITN and enough ITNs (1 for 2 people) also increased significantly, from 66 to 82% and 19 to 46%, respectively. Community-based distribution was the only source of ITNs for 53.4% of households. The proportion of the population using an ITN last night increased from 22.7% at baseline to 53.9% at endline. A logistic regression model indicates that although behaviour change communication was positively associated with an increase in ITN use, access to enough nets was the greatest determinant of use.

Conclusions

ITN access and use improved significantly in the study area during the pilot, coming close to universal coverage targets. This pilot serves as proof of concept for the community-based distribution methodology implemented as a mechanism to sustain ITN universal coverage. Longer periods of implementation should be evaluated to determine whether community-based distribution can successfully maintain ITN coverage beyond the short term, and reach all wealth quintiles equitably.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2020-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluation of community-based continuous distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets in Toamasina II District, Madagascar

Background

Continuous distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) is thought to be an effective mechanism to maintain ITN ownership and access between or in the absence of mass campaigns, but evidence is limited. A community-based ITN distribution pilot was implemented and evaluated in Toamasina II District, Madagascar, to assess this new channel for continuous ITN distribution.

Methods

Beginning 9 months after the December 2012 mass campaign, a community-based distribution pilot ran for an additional 9 months, from September 2013 to June 2014. Households requested ITN coupons from community agents in their village. After verification by the agents, households exchanged the coupon for an ITN at a distribution point. The evaluation was a two-stage cluster survey with a sample size of 1125 households. Counterfactual ITN ownership and access were calculated by excluding ITNs received through the community pilot.

Results

At the end of the pilot, household ownership of any ITN was 96.5%, population access to ITN was 81.5 and 61.5% of households owned at least 1 ITN for every 2 people. Without the ITNs provided through the community channel, household ownership of any ITN was estimated at 74.6%, population access to an ITN at 55.5%, and households that owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people at only 34.7%, 18 months after the 2012 campaign. Ownership of community-distributed ITNs was higher among the poorest wealth quintiles. Over 80% of respondents felt the community scheme was fair and simple to use.

Conclusions

Household ITN ownership and population ITN access exceeded RBM targets after the 9-month community distribution pilot. The pilot successfully provided coupons and ITNs to households requesting them, particularly for the least poor wealth quintiles, and the scheme was well-perceived by communities. Further research is needed to determine whether community-based distribution can sustain ITN ownership and access over the long term, how continuous availability of ITNs affects household net replacement behaviour, and whether community-based distribution is cost-effective when combined with mass campaigns, or if used with other continuous channels instead of mass campaigns.

Impact of a behaviour change communication programme on net durability in eastern Uganda

Background

The importance of net durability and the average useful life of a net is increasingly recognized as one of the critical factors that determine how often nets need to be replaced. A study to assess the effect of a net care and repair behaviour change communication (BCC) programme on net durability was conducted in one district in Eastern Uganda with a district in a neighbouring region serving as a comparison. Both districts had received LLINs in September of 2012.

Methods

The intervention was comprised of radio programmes, school and community events. Two-stage cluster sampling household surveys to assess net condition, exposure to BCC messages, and attitudes towards net care and repair were conducted in both districts at baseline (2–3 months post net distribution) and endline (20–21 months post distribution). Net condition was assessed using the proportionate hole index, with nets being classified as either serviceable or too torn.

Results

The intervention led to an additional 31.2 % increased exposure to net care and repair messages in the intervention district. Respondents in the intervention district had a more positive attitude towards net care and repair (32 % of respondents were classified as having a very positive attitude compared to 10 % in the comparison district), which was positively associated with the number of channels through which messages had been received (P < 0.001). Nets belonging to respondents with a very positive attitude were more often categorized as serviceable (80.2 %) compared to respondents with a poor/average attitude (66.4 %; odds ratio: 2.05, P = 0.028); however, this was only observed for the net brand with the greater physical integrity. Additionally, socio-economic status was a significant predictor of net condition. Although nets in the intervention district had significantly more repairs done per net, the act of repairing alone did not improve net condition.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the evaluation showed that the BCC programme resulted in improved knowledge and attitudes towards care and repair, which impacted positively on net condition. Repairs alone were not sufficient to improve net condition. Additional research on which care behaviours and attitudes are most associated with improved net condition would help BCC planners hone their campaigns.

Field durability of the same type of long-lasting insecticidal net varies between regions in Nigeria due to differences in household behaviour and living conditions

Background

With the recent publication of WHO-recommended methods to estimate net survival, comparative analyses from different areas have now become possible. With this in mind, a study was undertaken in Nigeria to compare the performance of a specific long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) product in three socio-ecologically different areas. In addition, the objective was to assess the feasibility of a retrospective study design for durability.

Methods

In three states, Zamfara in the north, Nasarawa in the centre and Cross River in the south, four local government areas were selected one year after mass distribution of 100-denier polyester LLINs. From a representative sample of 300 households per site that had received campaign nets, an assessment of net survival was made based on rate of loss of nets and the physical condition of surviving nets measured by the proportionate hole index (pHI). Surveys were repeated after two and three years.

Results

Over the three-year period 98% of the targeted sample size of 3,720 households was obtained and 94% of the 5,669 campaign nets found were assessed for damage. With increasing time since distribution, recall of having received campaign nets dropped by 11-22% and only 31-87% of nets actually lost were reported. Using a recall bias adjustment, attrition rates were fairly similar in all three sites. The proportion of surviving nets in serviceable condition differed dramatically, however, resulting in an estimated median net survival of 3.0 years in Nasarawa, 4.5 years in Cross River and 4.7 years in Zamfara. Although repairs on damaged nets increased from around 10% at baseline to 21-38% after three years, the average pHI value for each of the four hole size categories did not differ between repaired and unrepaired nets.

Conclusions

First, the differences observed in net survival are driven by living conditions and household behaviours and not the LLIN material. Second, recall bias in a retrospective durability study can be significant and while adjustments can be made, enough uncertainty remains that prospective studies on durability are preferable wherever possible. Third, repair does not seem to measurably improve net condition and focus should, therefore, be on improving preventive behaviour.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0640-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of a behaviour change intervention on long-lasting insecticidal net care and repair behaviour and net condition in Nasarawa State, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

While some data on net durability have been accumulating in recent years, including formative qualitative research on attitudes towards net care and repair, no data are available on how the durability of a net is influenced by behaviour of net maintenance, care and repair, and whether behavioural change interventions (BCC) could substantially impact on the average useful life of the net.

METHODS

The study used an intervention-control design with before-after assessment through repeated cross-sectional household surveys with two-stage cluster sampling following Nasarawa State's December 2010 mass campaign. All campaign nets were 100-denier polyester, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN). Baseline, midline, and endline surveys occurred at one-year intervals, in March 2012, March 2013, and April 2014, respectively. Outcome measures were the proportion of confirmed campaign nets with observed repairs, and the proportion in serviceable condition, measured with proportionate hole index (pHI) and according to WHO guidelines.

RESULTS

For all respondents, exposure to BCC messages was strongly correlated with increased positive attitude towards care and repair, and increases in attitude were positively correlated with observed net repairs, and with the proportion of nets in serviceable condition. In a multivariate regression model, positive care and repair attitude (OR 6.17 p = 0.001) and level of exposure (1 source: OR 4.00 p = 0.000; 3 sources: OR 9.34 p = 0.000) remained the most significant predictors of net condition, controlling for background and environmental factors. Nets that were tied up had 2.70 higher odds of being in serviceable condition (p = 0.001), while repairs made to nets were not sufficient to improve their pHI category. Estimated median net lifespan was approximately one full year longer for nets in households with a positive compared to a negative attitude.

CONCLUSION

Exposure to multiple channels of a comprehensive BCC intervention was associated with improved attitude scores, and with improved net condition at endline. It is possible for BCC interventions to change both attitudes and behaviours, and to have an important effect on overall median net lifespan. Care and repair messages are easily incorporated into existing malaria BCC platforms, and will help contribute to improved net condition, providing, in principle, more protection from malaria.

The use of mediation analysis to assess the effects of a behaviour change communication strategy on bed net ideation and household universal coverage in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

SBCC campaigns are designed to act on cognitive, social and emotional factors at the individual or community level. The combination of these factors, referred to as 'ideation', play a role in determining behaviour by reinforcing and confirming decisions about a particular health topic. This study introduces ideation theory and mediation analysis as a way to evaluate the impact of a malaria SBCC campaign in Tanzania, to determine whether exposure to a communication programme influenced universal coverage through mediating ideational variables.

METHODS

A household survey in three districts where community change agents (CCAs) were active was conducted to collect information on ITN use, number of ITNs in the household, and perceptions about ITN use and ownership. Variables relating to attitudes and beliefs were combined to make 'net ideation'. Using an ideational framework, a mediation analysis was conducted to see the impact exposure to a CCA only, mass media and community (M & C) messaging only, or exposure to both, had on household universal coverage, through the mediating variable net ideation.

RESULTS

All three levels of exposure (CCA, M & C messaging, or exposure to both) were significantly associated with increased net ideation (CCA: 0.283, 95% CI: 0.136-0.429, p-value: <0.001; M & C: 0.128, 95% CI: 0.032-0.334, p-value: 0.018; both: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.170-0.580, p-value: <0.001). Net ideation also significantly increased the odds of having universal coverage (CCAOR: 1.265, 95% CI: 1.118-1.433, p-value: <0.001; M & COR: 1.264, 95% CI: 1.117-1.432, p-value: <0.001, bothOR: 1.260, 95% CI: 1.114-1.428, p-value: <0.001). There were no significant direct effects between any exposure and universal coverage when controlling for net ideation.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate that mediation analysis is an applicable new tool to assess SBCC campaigns. Ideation as a mediator of the effects of communication exposure on household universal coverage has implications for designing SBCC to support both mass and continuous distribution efforts, since both heavily rely on consumer participation to obtain and maintain ITNs. Such systems can be strengthened by SBCC programming, generating demand through improving social norms about net ownership and use, perceived benefits of nets, and other behavioural constructs.

What happens to lost nets: a multi-country analysis of reasons for LLIN attrition using 14 household surveys in four countries

Background

While significant focus has been given to net distribution, little is known about what is done with nets that leave a household, either to be used by others or when they are discarded. To better understand the magnitude of sharing LLIN between households and patterns of discarding LLIN, the present study pools data from 14 post-campaign surveys to draw larger conclusions about the fate of nets that leave households.

Methods

Data from 14 sub-national post-campaign surveys conducted in Ghana, Senegal, Nigeria (10 states), and Uganda between 2009 and 2012 were pooled. Survey design and data collection methods were similar across surveys. The timing of surveys ranged from 2–16 months following their respective mass LLIN distributions.

Results

Among the 14 surveys a total of 14,196 households reported owning 25,447 nets of any kind, of which 23,955 (94%) were LLINs. In addition, a total of 4,102 nets were reported to have left the households in the sample: 63% were discarded, and 34% were given away. Only 255 of the discarded nets were reported used for other purposes, representing less than 1% of the total sample of nets. The majority (62.5%) of nets given away were given to or taken by relatives, while 31.1% were given to non-relatives. Campaign nets were almost six times (OR 5.95, 4.25-8.32, p < 0.0001) more likely to be given away than non-campaign nets lost during the same period. Nets were primarily given away within the first few months after distribution. The overall rate of net redistribution was 5% of all nets.

Discussion and conclusion

Intra-household re-allocation of nets does occur, but was sensitive to current household net ownership and the time elapsed since mass distribution. These factors can be addressed programmatically to further facilitate reallocation within a given community. Secondly, the overwhelming majority of nets were used for malaria prevention. Of the repurposed nets (<1% overall), the majority were already considered too torn, indicating they had already served out their useful life for malaria prevention. National programmes and donor agencies should remain confident that overall, their investments in LLIN are being appropriately used.

VSG gene control and infectivity strategy of metacyclic stage Trypanosoma brucei

As the metacyclic trypanosome stage develops in the tsetse fly salivary glands, it initiates expression of variant surface glycoproteins (VSGs) and does so by each cell activating, at random, one from a small subset of metacyclic VSG (M-VSG) genes. Whereas differential activation of individual VSG genes in the bloodstream occurs as a function of time, to evade waves of antibody, it is believed that the aim in the metacyclic stage is simultaneously to generate population diversity. M-VSG genes are activated in their telomeric loci and belong to monocistronic transcription units, unlike all other known trypanosome protein-coding genes, which appear to be transcribed polycistronically. The promoters of these metacyclic expression sites (M-ESs) have the unique property, in this organism, of being switched on and off in a life-cycle stage specific pattern. We have found that the 1.22 M-ES promoter is regulated according to life cycle stage, differential control being exerted through different elements of the promoter and under the influence of its genomic locus. We have characterized in detail the telomeres containing the 1.22 and 1.61 M-ESs. Upstream of the M-ES is a possibly haploid, non-transcribed region with some degenerate sequences homologous with expression site associated genes (ESAGs) that occur in bloodstream VSG expression sites. Further upstream (respectively, 22 and 13 kb upstream of the 1.22 and 1.61 VSG genes) are alpha-amanitin sensitive transcription units that may be polycistrons and are transcribed in all examined life cycle stages. They contain a number of genes. The differences between metacyclic and bloodstream ESs may have important consequences for life cycle regulation, genetic stability, phenotype complexity and adaptability of the metacyclic stage as it infects different host species.

The mental health status of adolescents released from custody: a preliminary study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of mental health problems and the social circumstances of young offenders after their release from custody in a juvenile detention centre.

METHOD

The subjects were 37 adolescents from an original sample of 101 adolescents who had been remanded in a juvenile detention centre in Adelaide, South Australia. The adolescents were evaluated at the time of their initial detention in custody and again 1 year later.

RESULTS

The adolescents reported having a large number of social and mental health problems after their release from custody. One year after their release, 32% of the adolescents scored above the recommended 'cut off' score on the Youth Self Report. This represents a rate of disorder three to four times higher than that reported by adolescents in the community and is comparable to the rate reported by adolescents attending mental health clinics.

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescents remanded in juvenile detention centres experience continuing mental health problems after their release from custody. As well, they experience considerable social dysfunction. There is an urgent need for more active therapeutic follow-up of these young people.

Paediatric hospital services: are we satisfying our adolescent patients?

This study evaluated the satisfaction of adolescents with general inpatient services in a paediatric hospital. The results suggest that the adolescents were generally satisfied with the services provided. However, a number of concerns were expressed about the physical characteristics of the wards, the day to day organization of the wards, and the lack of opportunity to participate in treatment planning. The results also suggest that adolescents' satisfaction with inpatient services will be improved if more attention is given to the physical surroundings in hospital wards and the level of privacy afforded to adolescent inpatients. Finally, the results draw attention to the importance adolescents place on being involved in decisions about their treatment planning. There is a great need for studies which focus on adolescents' perceptions of health services. This will help to ensure that adolescents receive services they perceive to be relevant and effective.