The Etiology of Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease in Southeast Asia: A Meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) etiology varies greatly between developed and developing countries. In addition, differences in underlying pathogenesis and therapeutic options affect the progression towards advanced-CKD. This meta-analysis aims to identify the etiology of advanced-CKD in Southeast Asia.

METHODS

A systematic search in four electronic-databases and complementary search on national kidney registries and repository libraries was conducted until July 20, 2023. The risk of bias was assessed using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies and Version-2 of Cochrane for intervention studies. A random-effects model was used to estimate pooled prevalence. The protocol is registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews PROSPERO; Registration ID:CRD42022300786.

RESULTS

We analyzed 81 studies involving 32,834 subjects. The pooled prevalence of advanced-CKD etiologies are diabetic kidney disease (DKD) 29.2% (95%CI 23.88-34.78), glomerulonephritis 20.0% (95%CI 16.84-23.38), hypertension 16.8% (95%CI 14.05-19.70), other 8.6% (95%CI 6.97-10.47), unknown 7.5% (95%CI 4.32-11.50), and polycystic kidney disease 0.7% (95%CI 0.40-1.16). We found a significant increase in DKD prevalence from 21% (9.2%, 95%CI 0.00-33.01) to 30% (95%CI 24.59-35.97) before and after the year 2000. Among upper-middle-income and high-income countries, DKD is the most prevalent (26.8%, 95%CI 21.42-32.60 and 38.9%, 95%CI 29.33-48.79, respectively), while glomerulonephritis is common in lower-middle-income countries (33.8%, 95%CI 15.62-54.81).

CONCLUSION

The leading cause of advanced-CKD in Southeast Asia is DKD, with a substantial proportion of glomerulonephritis. An efficient screening program targeting high-risk populations (diabetes mellitus and glomerulonephritis) is needed, with the aim to delay CKD progression.

Prognostic Models in Nephrology: Where Do We Stand and Where Do We Go from Here? Mapping Out the Evidence in a Scoping Review

Prognostic models can strongly support individualized care provision and well-informed shared decision making. There has been an upsurge of prognostic research in the field of nephrology, but the uptake of prognostic models in clinical practice remains limited. Therefore, we map out the research field of prognostic models for kidney patients and provide directions on how to proceed from here. We performed a scoping review of studies developing, validating, or updating a prognostic model for patients with CKD. We searched all published models in PubMed and Embase and report predicted outcomes, methodological quality, and validation and/or updating efforts. We found 602 studies, of which 30.1% concerned CKD populations, 31.6% dialysis populations, and 38.4% kidney transplantation populations. The most frequently predicted outcomes were mortality ( n =129), kidney disease progression ( n =75), and kidney graft survival ( n =54). Most studies provided discrimination measures (80.4%), but much less showed calibration results (43.4%). Of the 415 development studies, 28.0% did not perform any validation and 57.6% performed only internal validation. Moreover, only 111 models (26.7%) were externally validated either in the development study itself or in an independent external validation study. Finally, in 45.8% of development studies no useable version of the model was reported. To conclude, many prognostic models have been developed for patients with CKD, mainly for outcomes related to kidney disease progression and patient/graft survival. To bridge the gap between prediction research and kidney patient care, patient-reported outcomes, methodological rigor, complete reporting of prognostic models, external validation, updating, and impact assessment urgently need more attention.

A tool to predict the risk of lower extremity amputation in patients starting dialysis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Non-traumatic lower extremity amputation (LEA) is a severe complication during dialysis. To inform decision-making for physicians, we developed a multivariable prediction model for LEA after starting dialysis.

METHODS

Data from the Swedish Renal Registry (SNR) between 2010 and 2020 were geographically split into a development and validation cohort. Data from NECOSAD between 1997 and 2009 were used for validation targeted at Dutch patients. Inclusion criteria were no previous LEA and kidney transplant and age ≥ 40 years at baseline. A Fine-Gray model was developed with LEA within 3 years after starting dialysis as outcome of interest. Death and kidney transplant were treated as competing events. One coefficient, ordered by expected relevance, per 20 events was estimated. Performance was assessed with calibration and discrimination.

RESULTS

SNR was split into an urban development cohort with 4 771 individuals experiencing 201 (4.8%) events and a rural validation cohort with 4.876 individuals experiencing 155 (3.2%) events. NECOSAD contained 1 658 individuals experiencing 61 (3.7%) events. Ten predictors were included: female sex, age, diabetes mellitus, peripheral artery disease, cardiovascular disease, congestive heart failure, obesity, albumin, haemoglobin and diabetic retinopathy. In SNR, calibration intercept and slope were -0.003 and 0.912 respectively. The C-index was estimated as 0.813 (0.783-0.843). In NECOSAD, calibration intercept and slope were 0.001 and 1.142 respectively. The C-index was estimated as 0.760 (0.697-0.824). Calibration plots showed good calibration.

CONCLUSION

A newly developed model to predict LEA after starting dialysis showed good discriminatory performance and calibration. By identifying high-risk individuals this model could help select patients for preventive measures.

Level of Overestimation Among Dutch Recreational Skiers: Unskilled Tourists in the Mountains

OBJECTIVE

To examine the level of overestimation (LO), associated factors, and identify the group of severe overestimators, among recreational skiers.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

SETTING

An intermediate difficulty slope in an artificial snow indoor ski hall, and one in the mountains (Flachau, Austria).

PARTICIPANTS

Dutch recreational skiers.

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Participants were asked to rate themselves (SRSS, self-reported skill score). While skiing downhill they were objectively evaluated by 2 expert assessors (OSS, observed skill score). Potential associated factors and predictors for severe overestimation were assessed by a questionnaire.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The LO, calculated by subtracting the OSS from the SRSS, was categorized into "no," "mild," and "severe." Potential differences between these groups were analyzed, and regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with severe overestimation. To construct a profile of severe overestimators, the dataset was stratified based on 3 variables.

RESULTS

Overestimation was largely present (79.8%), and was severe in 32%. The LO decreased toward the more skilled skiers. Severe overestimators were mainly male, skied the least hours per day, were more avoidant, and showed the highest proportions of beginners and slightly advanced skiers. The profile of "severe overestimator" is characterized by physically unprepared males, avoidant for certain weather circumstances.

CONCLUSIONS

Overestimation among recreational Dutch skiers is largely present, particularly among physically unprepared males, avoidant of certain snow and weather conditions. These features may function as a proxy to identify "severe overestimators" in comparable populations. Preventive strategies should focus to increase awareness particularly among these subjects.

Considerable Variability Among Transplant Nephrologists in Judging Deceased Donor Kidney Offers

Introduction

Transplant clinicians may disagree on whether or not to accept a deceased donor kidney offer. We investigated the interobserver variability between transplant nephrologists regarding organ acceptance and whether the use of a prediction model impacted their decisions.

Methods

We developed an observational online survey with 6 real-life cases of deceased donor kidneys offered to a waitlisted recipient. Per case, nephrologists were asked to estimate the risk of adverse outcome and whether they would accept the offer for this patient, or for a patient of their own choice, and how certain they felt. These questions were repeated after revealing the risk of adverse outcome, calculated by a validated prediction model.

Results

Sixty Dutch nephrologists completed the survey. The intraclass correlation coefficient of their estimated risk of adverse outcome was poor (0.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.62). Interobserver agreement of the decision on whether or not to accept the kidney offer was also poor (Fleiss kappa 0.13, 95% CI 0.129-0.130). The acceptance rate before and after providing the outcome of the prediction model was significantly influenced in 2 of 6 cases. Acceptance rates varied considerably among transplant centers.

Conclusion

In this study, the estimated risk of adverse outcome and subsequent decision to accept a suboptimal donor kidney varied greatly among transplant nephrologists. The use of a prediction model could influence this decision and may enhance nephrologists' certainty about their decision.

Systematic metareview of prediction studies demonstrates stable trends in bias and low PROBAST inter-rater agreement

OBJECTIVES

To (1) explore trends of risk of bias (ROB) in prediction research over time following key methodological publications, using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and (2) assess the inter-rater agreement of the PROBAST.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

PubMed and Web of Science were searched for reviews with extractable PROBAST scores on domain and signaling question (SQ) level. ROB trends were visually correlated with yearly citations of key publications. Inter-rater agreement was assessed using Cohen's Kappa.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty nine systematic reviews were included, of which 85 reviews (containing 2,477 single studies) on domain level and 54 reviews (containing 2,458 single studies) on SQ level. High ROB was prevalent, especially in the Analysis domain, and overall trends of ROB remained relatively stable over time. The inter-rater agreement was low, both on domain (Kappa 0.04-0.26) and SQ level (Kappa -0.14 to 0.49).

CONCLUSION

Prediction model studies are at high ROB and time trends in ROB as assessed with the PROBAST remain relatively stable. These results might be explained by key publications having no influence on ROB or recency of key publications. Moreover, the trend may suffer from the low inter-rater agreement and ceiling effect of the PROBAST. The inter-rater agreement could potentially be improved by altering the PROBAST or providing training on how to apply the PROBAST.

Predicting mortality after start of long-term dialysis-International validation of one- and two-year prediction models

BACKGROUND

Mortality prediction is critical on long-term kidney replacement therapy (KRT), both for individual treatment decisions and resource planning. Many mortality prediction models already exist, but as a major shortcoming most of them have only been validated internally. This leaves reliability and usefulness of these models in other KRT populations, especially foreign, unknown. Previously two models were constructed for one- and two-year mortality prediction of Finnish patients starting long-term dialysis. These models are here internationally validated in KRT populations of the Dutch NECOSAD Study and the UK Renal Registry (UKRR).

METHODS

We validated the models externally on 2051 NECOSAD patients and on two UKRR patient cohorts (5328 and 45493 patients). We performed multiple imputation for missing data, used c-statistic (AUC) to assess discrimination, and evaluated calibration by plotting average estimated probability of death against observed risk of death.

RESULTS

Both prediction models performed well in the NECOSAD population (AUC 0.79 for the one-year model and 0.78 for the two-year model). In the UKRR populations, performance was slightly weaker (AUCs: 0.73 and 0.74). These are to be compared to the earlier external validation in a Finnish cohort (AUCs: 0.77 and 0.74). In all tested populations, our models performed better for PD than HD patients. Level of death risk (i.e., calibration) was well estimated by the one-year model in all cohorts but was somewhat overestimated by the two-year model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prediction models showed good performance not only in the Finnish but in foreign KRT populations as well. Compared to the other existing models, the current models have equal or better performance and fewer variables, thus increasing models' usability. The models are easily accessible on the web. These results encourage implementing the models into clinical decision-making widely among European KRT populations.

Estimating skills level in recreational skiing: Development and validation of a practical multidimensional instrument

Skiing and snowboarding are both popular recreational alpine sports, with substantial injury risk of variable severity. Although skills level has repeatedly been associated with injury risk, a validated measure to accurately estimate the actual skills level without objective assessment is missing. This study aimed to develop a practical validated instrument, to better estimate the actual skills level of recreational skiers, based on the criteria of the Dutch Skiing Federation (DSF), and covering five different skill domains. A sample of Dutch recreational skiers (n = 84) was asked to fill in a questionnaire reflecting seven, a priori chosen predictors by expert opinion, to ski downhill and to be objectively evaluated by expert assessors. The instrument was developed to have a multidimensional character and was validated according to the TRIPOD guideline (Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis). The sample reported an overall incorrect self-reported estimation of their skills, compared with the observed skill score. The instrument showed good calibration and underwent multiple validation methods. The estimated skills score showed to be closer to the observed scores, than self-reportage. Our study provides a practical, multidimensional, and validated instrument to estimate the actual skills level. It proved to better reflect the actual skills levels compared with self-reportage among recreational skiers.

Use of guideline-recommended medical therapy in patients with heart failure and chronic kidney disease: from physician's prescriptions to patient's dispensations, medication adherence and persistence

AIM

Half of heart failure (HF) patients have chronic kidney disease (CKD) complicating their pharmacological management. We evaluated physicians' and patients' patterns of use of evidence-based medical therapies in HF across CKD stages.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied HF patients with reduced (HFrEF) and mildly reduced (HFmrEF) ejection fraction enrolled in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry in 2009-2018. We investigated the likelihood of physicians to prescribe guideline-recommended therapies to patients with CKD, and of patients to fill the prescriptions within 90 days of incident HF (initiating therapy), to adhere (proportion of days covered ≥80%) and persist (continued use) on these treatments during the first year of therapy. We identified 31 668 patients with HFrEF (median age 74 years, 46% CKD). The proportions receiving a prescription for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ACEi/ARB/ARNi) were 96%, 92%, 86%, and 68%, for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60, 45-59, 30-44, and <30 ml/min/1.73 m² , respectively; for beta-blockers 94%, 93%, 92%, and 92%, for mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) 45%, 44%, 37%, 24%; and for triple therapy (combination of ACEi/ARB/ARNi + beta-blockers + MRA) 38%, 35%, 28%, and 15%. Patients with CKD were less likely to initiate these medications, and less likely to adhere to and persist on ACEi/ARB/ARNi, MRA, and triple therapy. Among stoppers, CKD patients were less likely to restart these medications. Results were consistent after multivariable adjustment and in patients with HFmrEF (n = 15 114).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with HF and CKD are less likely to be prescribed and to fill prescriptions for evidence-based therapies, showing lower adherence and persistence, even at eGFR categories where these therapies are recommended and have shown efficacy in clinical trials.

The association between TMAO, CMPF, and clinical outcomes in advanced chronic kidney disease: results from the European QUALity (EQUAL) Study

BACKGROUND

Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO), a metabolite from red meat and fish consumption, plays a role in promoting cardiovascular events. However, data regarding TMAO and its impact on clinical outcomes are inconclusive, possibly due to its undetermined dietary source.

OBJECTIVES

We hypothesized that circulating TMAO derived from fish intake might cause less harm compared with red meat sources by examining the concomitant level of 3-carboxy-4-methyl-5-propyl-2-furanpropionate (CMPF), a known biomarker of fish intake, and investigated the association between TMAO, CMPF, and outcomes.

METHODS

Patients were recruited from the European QUALity (EQUAL) Study on treatment in advanced chronic kidney disease among individuals aged ≥65 y whose estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) had dropped for the first time to ≤20 mL/min per 1.73 m2 during the last 6 mo. The association between TMAO, CMPF, and outcomes including all-cause mortality and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) was assessed among 737 patients. Patients were further stratified by median cutoffs of TMAO and CMPF, suggesting high/low red meat and fish intake.

RESULTS

During a median of 39 mo of follow-up, 232 patients died. Higher TMAO was independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (multivariable HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.83). Higher CMPF was associated with a reduced risk of both all-cause mortality (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.71, 0.89) and KRT (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.71, 0.90), independently of TMAO and other clinically relevant confounders. In comparison to patients with low TMAO and CMPF, patients with low TMAO and high CMPF had reduced risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.31, 0.73), whereas those with high TMAO and high CMPF showed no association across adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

High CMPF conferred an independent role in health benefits and might even counteract the unfavorable association between TMAO and outcomes. Whether higher circulating CMPF concentrations are due to fish consumption, and/or if CMPF is a protective factor, remains to be verified.

External validation of risk scores to predict in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized due to coronavirus disease 2019

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents an urgent threat to global health. Prediction models that accurately estimate mortality risk in hospitalized patients could assist medical staff in treatment and allocating limited resources.

AIMS

To externally validate two promising previously published risk scores that predict in-hospital mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Two prospective cohorts were available; a cohort of 1028 patients admitted to one of nine hospitals in Lombardy, Italy (the Lombardy cohort) and a cohort of 432 patients admitted to a hospital in Leiden, the Netherlands (the Leiden cohort). The endpoint was in-hospital mortality. All patients were adult and tested COVID-19 PCR-positive. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed.

RESULTS

The C-statistic of the 4C mortality score was good in the Lombardy cohort (0.85, 95CI: 0.82-0.89) and in the Leiden cohort (0.87, 95CI: 0.80-0.94). Model calibration was acceptable in the Lombardy cohort but poor in the Leiden cohort due to the model systematically overpredicting the mortality risk for all patients. The C-statistic of the CURB-65 score was good in the Lombardy cohort (0.80, 95CI: 0.75-0.85) and in the Leiden cohort (0.82, 95CI: 0.76-0.88). The mortality rate in the CURB-65 development cohort was much lower than the mortality rate in the Lombardy cohort. A similar but less pronounced trend was found for patients in the Leiden cohort.

CONCLUSION

Although performances did not differ greatly, the 4C mortality score showed the best performance. However, because of quickly changing circumstances, model recalibration may be necessary before using the 4C mortality score.

Comprehensive comparison of stroke risk score performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis among 6 267 728 patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2. Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2, pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS2 demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies.

CONCLUSION

Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ID CRD4202161247 (PROSPERO).

Stopping Versus Continuing Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors After Acute Kidney Injury and Adverse Clinical Outcomes; An Observational Study From Routine Care Data

Background

The risk–benefit ratio of continuing with renin–angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi) after an episode of acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. While stopping RASi may prevent recurrent AKI or hyperkalaemia, it may deprive patients of the cardiovascular benefits of using RASi.

Methods

We analysed outcomes of long-term RASi users experiencing AKI (stage 2 or 3, or clinically coded) during hospitalization in Stockholm and Sweden during 2007–18. We compared stopping RASi within 3 months after discharge with continuing RASi. The primary study outcome was the composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Recurrent AKI was our secondary outcome and we considered hyperkalaemia as a positive control outcome. Propensity score overlap weighted Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), balancing 75 confounders. Weighted absolute risk differences (ARDs) were also determined.

Results

We included 10 165 individuals, of whom 4429 stopped and 5736 continued RASi, with a median follow-up of 2.3 years. The median age was 78 years; 45% were women and median kidney function before the index episode of AKI was 55 mL/min/1.73 m². After weighting, those who stopped had an increased risk [HR, 95% confidence interval (CI)] of the composite of death, MI and stroke [1.13, 1.07–1.19; ARD 3.7, 95% CI 2.6–4.8] compared with those who continued, a similar risk of recurrent AKI (0.94, 0.84–1.05) and a decreased risk of hyperkalaemia (0.79, 0.71–0.88).

Discussion

Stopping RASi use among survivors of moderate-to-severe AKI was associated with a similar risk of recurrent AKI, but higher risk of the composite of death, MI and stroke.

Lessons learnt when accounting for competing events in the external validation of time-to-event prognostic models

Background

External validation of prognostic models is necessary to assess the accuracy and generalizability of the model to new patients. If models are validated in a setting in which competing events occur, these competing risks should be accounted for when comparing predicted risks to observed outcomes.

Methods

We discuss existing measures of calibration and discrimination that incorporate competing events for time-to-event models. These methods are illustrated using a clinical-data example concerning the prediction of kidney failure in a population with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), using the guideline-recommended Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The KFRE was developed using Cox regression in a diverse population of CKD patients and has been proposed for use in patients with advanced CKD in whom death is a frequent competing event.

Results

When validating the 5-year KFRE with methods that account for competing events, it becomes apparent that the 5-year KFRE considerably overestimates the real-world risk of kidney failure. The absolute overestimation was 10%age points on average and 29%age points in older high-risk patients.

Conclusions

It is crucial that competing events are accounted for during external validation to provide a more reliable assessment the performance of a model in clinical settings in which competing risks occur.

Associations between depressive symptoms and disease progression in older patients with chronic kidney disease: results of the EQUAL study

Background

Depressive symptoms are associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with end-stage kidney disease; however, few small studies have examined this association in patients with earlier phases of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We studied associations between baseline depressive symptoms and clinical outcomes in older patients with advanced CKD and examined whether these associations differed depending on sex.

Methods

CKD patients (≥65 years; estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤20 mL/min/1.73 m²) were included from a European multicentre prospective cohort between 2012 and 2019. Depressive symptoms were measured by the five-item Mental Health Inventory (cut-off ≤70; 0–100 scale). Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to study associations between depressive symptoms and time to dialysis initiation, all-cause mortality and these outcomes combined. A joint model was used to study the association between depressive symptoms and kidney function over time. Analyses were adjusted for potential baseline confounders.

Results

Overall kidney function decline in 1326 patients was –0.12 mL/min/1.73 m²/month. A total of 515 patients showed depressive symptoms. No significant association was found between depressive symptoms and kidney function over time (P = 0.08). Unlike women, men with depressive symptoms had an increased mortality rate compared with those without symptoms [adjusted hazard ratio 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.03–1.93)]. Depressive symptoms were not significantly associated with a higher hazard of dialysis initiation, or with the combined outcome (i.e. dialysis initiation and all-cause mortality).

Conclusions

There was no significant association between depressive symptoms at baseline and decline in kidney function over time in older patients with advanced CKD. Depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with a higher mortality rate in men.

The relationship between uremic toxins and symptoms in older men and women with advanced chronic kidney disease

Background

Patients with stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) suffer from various symptoms. The retention of uremic solutes is thought to be associated with those symptoms. However, there are relatively few rigorous studies on the potential links between uremic toxins and symptoms in patients with CKD.

Methods

The EQUAL study is an ongoing observational cohort study of non-dialyzed patients with stage 4/5 CKD. EQUAL patients from Germany, Poland, Sweden and the UK were included in the present study (n = 795). Data and symptom self-report questionnaires were collected between April 2012 and September 2020. Baseline uric acid and parathyroid hormone and 10 uremic toxins were quantified. We tested the association between uremic toxins and symptoms and adjusted P-values for multiple testing.

Results

Symptoms were more frequent in women than in men with stage 4/5 CKD, while levels of various uremic toxins were higher in men. Only trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO; positive association with fatigue), p-cresyl sulfate (PCS) with constipation and 3-carboxy-4-methyl-5-propyl-2-furanpropionic acid (negative association with shortness of breath) demonstrated moderately strong associations with symptoms in adjusted analyses. The association of phenylacetylglutamine with shortness of breath was consistent in both sexes, although it only reached statistical significance in the full population. In contrast, TMAO (fatigue) and PCS and phenylacetylglutamine (constipation) were only associated with symptoms in men, who presented higher serum levels than women.

Conclusion

Only a limited number of toxins were associated with symptoms in persons with stage 4/5 CKD. Other uremic toxins, uremia-related factors or psychosocial factors not yet explored might contribute to symptom burden.

Timing of dialysis initiation to reduce mortality and cardiovascular events in advanced chronic kidney disease: nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at which to initiate dialysis in people with advanced chronic kidney disease.

DESIGN

Nationwide observational cohort study.

SETTING

National Swedish Renal Registry of patients referred to nephrologists.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients had a baseline eGFR between 10 and 20 mL/min/1.73 m2 and were included between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016, with follow-up until 1 June 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The strict design criteria of a clinical trial were mimicked by using the cloning, censoring, and weighting method to eliminate immortal time bias, lead time bias, and survivor bias. A dynamic marginal structural model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and absolute risks for five year all cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke) for 15 dialysis initiation strategies with eGFR values between 4 and 19 mL/min/1.73 m2 in increments of 1 mL/min/1.73 m2. An eGFR between 6 and 7 mL/min/1.73 m2 (eGFR6-7) was taken as the reference.

RESULTS

Among 10 290 incident patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (median age 73 years; 3739 (36%) women; median eGFR 16.8 mL/min/1.73 m2), 3822 started dialysis, 4160 died, and 2446 had a major adverse cardiovascular event. A parabolic relation was observed for mortality, with the lowest risk for eGFR15-16. Compared with dialysis initiation at eGFR6-7, initiation at eGFR15-16 was associated with a 5.1% (95% confidence interval 2.5% to 6.9%) lower absolute five year mortality risk and 2.9% (0.2% to 5.5%) lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event, corresponding to hazard ratios of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 0.92) and 0.94 (0.91 to 0.98), respectively. This 5.1% absolute risk difference corresponded to a mean postponement of death of 1.6 months over five years of follow-up. However, dialysis would need to be started four years earlier. When emulating the intended strategies of the Initiating Dialysis Early and Late (IDEAL) trial (eGFR10-14 v eGFR5-7) and the achieved eGFRs in IDEAL (eGFR7-10 v eGFR5-7), hazard ratios for all cause mortality were 0.96 (0.94 to 0.99) and 0.97 (0.94 to 1.00), respectively, which are congruent with the findings of the randomised IDEAL trial.

CONCLUSIONS

Very early initiation of dialysis was associated with a modest reduction in mortality and cardiovascular events. For most patients, such a reduction may not outweigh the burden of a substantially longer period spent on dialysis.

Conducting correlation analysis: important limitations and pitfalls

The correlation coefficient is a statistical measure often used in studies to show an association between variables or to look at the agreement between two methods. In this paper, we will discuss not only the basics of the correlation coefficient, such as its assumptions and how it is interpreted, but also important limitations when using the correlation coefficient, such as its assumption of a linear association and its sensitivity to the range of observations. We will also discuss why the coefficient is invalid when used to assess agreement of two methods aiming to measure a certain value, and discuss better alternatives, such as the intraclass coefficient and Bland-Altman's limits of agreement. The concepts discussed in this paper are supported with examples from literature in the field of nephrology.

Person centred care provision and care planning in chronic kidney disease: which outcomes matter? A systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative studies : Care planning in CKD: which outcomes matter?

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Explore priorities related to outcomes and barriers of adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) regarding person centred care and care planning.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review of qualitative studies.

SEARCH STRATEGY & SOURCES

In July 2018 six bibliographic databases, and reference lists of included articles were searched for qualitative studies that included adults with CKD stages 1-5, not on dialysis or conservative management, without a previous kidney transplantation.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Three independent reviewers extracted and inductively coded data using thematic synthesis. Reporting quality was assessed using the COREQ and the review reported according to PRISMA and ENTREQ statements.

RESULTS

Forty-six studies involving 1493 participants were eligible. The period after diagnosis of CKD is characterized by feelings of uncertainty, social isolation, financial burden, resentment and fear of the unknown. Patients show interest in ways to return to normality and remain in control of their health in order to avoid further deterioration of kidney function. However, necessary information is often unavailable or incomprehensible. Although patients and healthcare professionals share the predominant interest of whether or not dialysis or transplantation is necessary, patients value many more outcomes that are often unrecognized by their healthcare professionals. We identified 4 themes with 6 subthemes that summarize these findings: 'pursuing normality and control' ('pursuing normality'; 'a search for knowledge'); 'prioritizing outcomes' ('reaching kidney failure'; 'experienced health'; 'social life'; 'work and economic productivity'); 'predicting the future'; and 'realising what matters'. Reporting quality was moderate for most included studies.

LIMITATIONS

Exclusion of non-English articles.

CONCLUSIONS

The realisation that patients' priorities do not match those of the healthcare professionals, in combination with the prognostic ambiguity, confirms fatalistic perceptions of not being in control when living with CKD. These insights may contribute to greater understanding of patients' perspectives and a more person-centred approach in healthcare prioritization and care planning within CKD care.

Academic Success Experiences: Promoting Research Motivation andSelf-Efficacy Beliefs among Medical Students

THEORY

Medicine is facing a physician-scientist shortage. Medical training could contribute to developing physician-scientists by stimulating student research involvement, as previous studies showed this is related to research involvement in professional practice. Motivation for research and research self-efficacy beliefs are related to student research involvement. Based on social cognitive theory, success experiences in doing research may enhance research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs. However, the role and type of success experiences in promoting research self-efficacy beliefs and motivation especially early in medical training has not yet been investigated. Therefore, we examined if academic success experiences within an undergraduate course in academic and scientific skills increased research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs among medical students. Furthermore, type of success experience was taken into account by looking at the effects of academic success experiences within standard (i.e., exam) versus authentic (i.e., research report and oral presentation) assessments.

HYPOTHESES

It was hypothesized that academic success experiences increase intrinsic motivation for research and self-efficacy beliefs. Furthermore, we hypothesized that authentic assessments influence intrinsic motivation for research and self-efficacy beliefs to a larger degree than standard assessments, as the authentic assessments mirror real-world practices of researchers.

METHOD

First-year undergraduate medicine students followed a course in academic and scientific skills in which they conducted research individually. Their academic success experiences were operationalized as their grades on two authentic research assessments (written report and oral presentation) and one less authentic assessment (written exam). We surveyed students before the course when entering medical school (i.e., baseline measure) and 1 year after the course in their 2nd year (i.e., postmeasure). Both the baseline and postmeasure surveys measured intrinsic motivation for research, extrinsic motivation for research, and research self-efficacy beliefs. Linear regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between academic success experiences and intrinsic motivation for research, extrinsic motivation for research, and research self-efficacy beliefs on the postmeasure. We adjusted for prior research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs at baseline. Therefore, this adjusted effect can be interpreted as an increase or decrease in motivation. In addition, we adjusted for age, gender, and grade point average (GPA) of the first 4 months, as these variables were seen as possible confounders.

RESULTS

In total, 243 of 275 students participated (88.4%). Academic success experiences in writing and presenting research were related to a significant increase in intrinsic motivation for research. After adjusting for prior GPA, only the effect of presenting remained. Experiencing success in presenting enhanced research self-efficacy beliefs, also after adjusting for prior GPA. Higher grades on the exam did not affect intrinsic motivation for research or research self-efficacy significantly. Also, none of the success experiences influenced extrinsic motivation for research.

CONCLUSIONS

Academic success experiences on authentic research tasks, especially presenting research, may be a good way to enhance intrinsic motivation for research and research self-efficacy beliefs. In turn, research motivation and self-efficacy beliefs promote research involvement, which is a first step in the physician-scientist pipeline. Furthermore, this study established the applicability of the social cognitive theory in a research context within the medical domain.

Appraising prediction research: a guide and meta-review on bias and applicability assessment using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST)

Over the past few years, a large number of prediction models have been published, often of poor methodological quality. Seemingly objective and straightforward, prediction models provide a risk estimate for the outcome of interest, usually based on readily available clinical information. Yet, using models of substandard methodological rigour, especially without external validation, may result in incorrect risk estimates and consequently misclassification. To assess and combat bias in prediction research the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was published in 2019. This risk of bias (ROB) tool includes four domains and 20 signalling questions highlighting methodological flaws, and provides guidance in assessing the applicability of the model. In this paper, the PROBAST will be discussed, along with an in‐depth review of two commonly encountered pitfalls in prediction modelling that may induce bias: overfitting and composite endpoints. We illustrate the prevalence of potential bias in prediction models with a meta‐review of 50 systematic reviews that used the PROBAST to appraise their included studies, thus including 1510 different studies on 2104 prediction models. All domains showed an unclear or high ROB; these results were markedly stable over time, highlighting the urgent need for attention on bias in prediction research. This article aims to do just that by providing (1) the clinician with tools to evaluate the (methodological) quality of a clinical prediction model, (2) the researcher working on a review with methods to appraise the included models, and (3) the researcher developing a model with suggestions to improve model quality.

Most published prediction models have limited clinical uptake, are not externally validated and come with methodological issues. The PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASssessment Tool) guides the researcher writing a review, or the clinician interested in a model for risk calculation in a clinical setting. This review examines the aspects of bias in prediction research, and provides information on the prevalence of bias in published models.

Validation of risk scores for ischaemic stroke in atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of kidney function

Aims 

The increasing prevalence of ischaemic stroke (IS) can partly be explained by the likewise growing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk scores have been developed to identify high-risk patients, allowing for personalized anticoagulation therapy. However, predictive performance in CKD is unclear. The aim of this study is to validate six commonly used risk scores for IS in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients across the spectrum of kidney function.

Methods and results 

Overall, 36 004 subjects with newly diagnosed AF from SCREAM (Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements), a healthcare utilization cohort of Stockholm residents, were included. Predictive performance of the AFI, CHADS₂, Modified CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, ATRIA, and GARFIELD-AF risk scores was evaluated across three strata of kidney function: normal kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/min/1.73 m²], mild CKD (eGFR 30–60 mL/min/1.73 m²), and advanced CKD (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m²). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. During 1.9 years, 3069 (8.5%) patients suffered an IS. Discrimination was dependent on eGFR: the median c-statistic in normal eGFR was 0.75 (range 0.68–0.78), but decreased to 0.68 (0.58–0.73) and 0.68 (0.55–0.74) for mild and advanced CKD, respectively. Calibration was reasonable and largely independent of eGFR. The Modified CHADS₂ score showed good performance across kidney function strata, both for discrimination [c-statistic: 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.77–0.79), 0.73 (0.71–0.74) and 0.74 (0.69–0.79), respectively] and calibration.

Conclusion 

In the most clinically relevant stages of CKD, predictive performance of the majority of risk scores was poor, increasing the risk of misclassification and thus of over- or undertreatment. The Modified CHADS₂ score performed good and consistently across all kidney function strata, and should therefore be preferred for risk estimation in AF patients.

Kidney Failure Prediction Models: A Comprehensive External Validation Study in Patients with Advanced CKD

BACKGROUND

Various prediction models have been developed to predict the risk of kidney failure in patients with CKD. However, guideline-recommended models have yet to be compared head to head, their validation in patients with advanced CKD is lacking, and most do not account for competing risks.

METHODS

To externally validate 11 existing models of kidney failure, taking the competing risk of death into account, we included patients with advanced CKD from two large cohorts: the European Quality Study (EQUAL), an ongoing European prospective, multicenter cohort study of older patients with advanced CKD, and the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR), an ongoing registry of nephrology-referred patients with CKD in Sweden. The outcome of the models was kidney failure (defined as RRT-treated ESKD). We assessed model performance with discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The study included 1580 patients from EQUAL and 13,489 patients from SRR. The average c statistic over the 11 validated models was 0.74 in EQUAL and 0.80 in SRR, compared with 0.89 in previous validations. Most models with longer prediction horizons overestimated the risk of kidney failure considerably. The 5-year Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) overpredicted risk by 10%-18%. The four- and eight-variable 2-year KFRE and the 4-year Grams model showed excellent calibration and good discrimination in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Some existing models can accurately predict kidney failure in patients with advanced CKD. KFRE performed well for a shorter time frame (2 years), despite not accounting for competing events. Models predicting over a longer time frame (5 years) overestimated risk because of the competing risk of death. The Grams model, which accounts for the latter, is suitable for longer-term predictions (4 years).

Pharmacoepidemiology for nephrologists (part 2): potential biases and how to overcome them

Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of medications. This review discusses a number of biases that may arise in such studies and proposes solutions to minimize them during the design or statistical analysis phase. We first describe designs to handle confounding by indication (e.g. active comparator design) and methods to investigate the influence of unmeasured confounding, such as the E-value, the use of negative control outcomes and control cohorts. We next discuss prevalent user and immortal time biases in pharmacoepidemiology research and how these can be prevented by focussing on incident users and applying either landmarking, using a time-varying exposure, or the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Lastly, we briefly discuss the common issues with missing data and misclassification bias. When these biases are properly accounted for, pharmacoepidemiological observational studies can provide valuable information for clinical practice.

Kidney function and symptom development over time in elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease: results of the EQUAL cohort study

BACKGROUND

Initiation of renal replacement therapy often results from a combination of kidney function deterioration and symptoms related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. We investigated the association between kidney function decline and symptom development in patients with advanced CKD.

METHODS

In the European Quality study on treatment in advanced CKD (EQUAL study), a European prospective cohort study, patients with advanced CKD aged ≥65 years and a kidney function that dropped <20 mL/min/1.73 m2 were followed for 1 year. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the association between kidney function decline and symptom development. The sum score for symptom number ranged from 0 to 33 and for overall symptom severity from 0 to 165, using the Dialysis Symptom Index.

RESULTS

At least one kidney function estimate with symptom number or overall symptom severity was available for 1109 and 1019 patients, respectively. The mean (95% confidence interval) annual kidney function decline was 1.70 (1.32; 2.08) mL/min/1.73 m2. The mean overall increase in symptom number and severity was 0.73 (0.28; 1.19) and 2.93 (1.34; 4.52) per year, respectively. A cross-sectional association between the level of kidney function and symptoms was lacking. Furthermore, kidney function at cohort entry was not associated with symptom development. However, each mL/min/1.73 m2 of annual kidney function decline was associated with an extra annual increase of 0.23 (0.07; 0.39) in the number of symptoms and 0.87 (0.35; 1.40) in overall symptom severity.

CONCLUSIONS

A faster kidney function decline was associated with a steeper increase in both symptom number and severity. Considering the modest association, our results seem to suggest that repeated thorough assessment of symptom development during outpatient clinic visits, in addition to the monitoring of kidney function decline, is important for clinical decision-making.

Bleeding risk of haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Dialysis patients have an increased bleeding risk as compared with the general population. However, there is limited information whether bleeding risks are different for patients treated with haemodialysis (HD) or peritoneal dialysis (PD). From a clinical point of view, this information could influence therapy choice. Therefore the aim of this study was to investigate the association between dialysis modality and bleeding risk.

METHODS

Incident dialysis patients from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis were prospectively followed for major bleeding events over 3 years. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for HD compared with PD using a time-dependent Cox regression analysis, with updates on dialysis modality.

RESULTS

In total, 1745 patients started dialysis, of whom 1211 (69.4%) received HD and 534 (30.6%) PD. The bleeding rate was 60.8/1000 person-years for HD patients and 34.6/1000 person-years for PD patients. The time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age, sex, primary kidney disease, prior bleeding, cardiovascular disease, antiplatelet drug use, vitamin K antagonist use, erythropoietin use, arterial hypertension, residual glomerular filtratin rate, haemoglobin and albumin levels, bleeding risk for HD patients compared with PD increased 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.0-2.2).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large prospective cohort of incident dialysis patients, HD patients had an increased bleeding risk compared with PD patients. In particular, HD patients with a history of prior bleeding had an increased bleeding risk.

Towards the best kidney failure prediction tool: a systematic review and selection aid

Background

Prediction tools that identify chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients at a high risk of developing kidney failure have the potential for great clinical value, but limited uptake. The aim of the current study is to systematically review all available models predicting kidney failure in CKD patients, organize empirical evidence on their validity and ultimately provide guidance in the interpretation and uptake of these tools.

Methods

PubMed and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles. Titles, abstracts and full-text articles were sequentially screened for inclusion by two independent researchers. Data on study design, model development and performance were extracted. The risk of bias and clinical usefulness were assessed and combined in order to provide recommendations on which models to use.

Results

Of 2183 screened studies, a total of 42 studies were included in the current review. Most studies showed high discriminatory capacity and the included predictors had large overlap. Overall, the risk of bias was high. Slightly less than half the studies (48%) presented enough detail for the use of their prediction tool in practice and few models were externally validated.

Conclusions

The current systematic review may be used as a tool to select the most appropriate and robust prognostic model for various settings. Although some models showed great potential, many lacked clinical relevance due to being developed in a prevalent patient population with a wide range of disease severity. Future research efforts should focus on external validation and impact assessment in clinically relevant patient populations.

Stopping Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors in Patients with Advanced CKD and Risk of Adverse Outcomes: A Nationwide Study

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether stopping renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitor therapy in patients with advanced CKD affects outcomes.

METHODS

We studied patients referred to nephrologist care, listed on the Swedish Renal Registry during 2007-2017, who developed advanced CKD (eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m²) while on RAS inhibitor therapy. Using target trial emulation techniques on the basis of cloning, censoring, and weighting, we compared the risks of stopping within 6 months and remaining off treatment versus continuing RAS inhibitor therapy. These included risks of subsequent 5-year all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events, and initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT).

RESULTS

Of 10,254 prevalent RAS inhibitor users (median age 72 years, 36% female) with new-onset eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m², 1553 (15%) stopped RAS inhibitor therapy within 6 months. Median eGFR was 23 ml/min per 1.73 m². Compared with continuing RAS inhibition, stopping this therapy was associated with a higher absolute 5-year risk of death (40.9% versus 54.5%) and major adverse cardiovascular events (47.6% versus 59.5%), but with a lower risk of KRT (36.1% versus 27.9%); these corresponded to absolute risk differences of 13.6 events per 100 patients, 11.9 events per 100 patients, and -8.3 events per 100 patients, respectively. Results were consistent whether patients stopped RAS inhibition at higher or lower eGFR, across prespecified subgroups, after adjustment and stratification for albuminuria and potassium, and when modeling RAS inhibition as a time-dependent exposure using a marginal structural model.

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide observational study of people with advanced CKD, stopping RAS inhibition was associated with higher absolute risks of mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events, but also with a lower absolute risk of initiating KRT.

Speckle-tracking echocardiography in comparison with ejection fraction for prediction of cardiovascular mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease

Background

Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To develop better means to assess cardiovascular risk in these patients, we compared conventional echocardiography-derived left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) with the novel method of 2D speckle-tracking echocardiography to determine cardiac strain.

Methods

Predictive performances of conventional EF and speckle-tracking echocardiography-derived global longitudinal strain (GLS) were compared using receiver-operator curve (ROC) analyses and calibration by calibration plots. We also took into account other known cardiovascular risk factors through multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The study comprised 171 ESRD patients (mean age 64 years, 64% male) on maintenance dialysis therapy (93% haemodialysis, 7% peritoneal dialysis) for an average period of 39 months. During 2.1 years of follow-up, 42 patients (25%) died from cardiovascular disease. ROC analysis of GLS resulted in an area under the curve of 0.700 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.603–0.797] compared with an area under the curve of EF of 0.615 (95% CI 0.514–0.716) (P = 0.059 for difference). The total absolute deviation between predicted and observed outcome frequencies obtained by calibration plots were 13.8% for EF compared with only 6.4% for GLS. Best results of ROC analysis (area under the curve = 0.759; P = 0.06), calibration and goodness-of-fit (χ² = 28.34, P ≤ 0.0001, R² = 0.25) were achieved for GLS added to a baseline model consisting of known cardiovascular risk factors in a multivariate regression analysis.

Conclusions

In summary, in chronic dialysis patients, GLS is a more precise predictor of cardiovascular mortality than conventional echocardiography-derived EF.

Comparative Effectiveness of Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors and Calcium Channel Blockers in Individuals With Advanced CKD: A Nationwide Observational Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

It is unknown whether initiating renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitor therapy in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) is superior to alternative antihypertensive agents such as calcium channel blockers (CCBs). We compared the risks for kidney replacement therapy (KRT), mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with advanced CKD in routine nephrology practice who were initiating either RAS inhibitor or CCB therapy.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational study in the Swedish Renal Registry, 2007 to 2017.

SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS

2,458 new users of RAS inhibitors and 2,345 CCB users with estimated glomerular filtration rates<30mL/min/1.73m² (CKD G4-G5 without KRT) who were being followed up by a nephrologist. As a positive control cohort, new users of the same drugs with CKD G3 (estimated glomerular filtration rate, 30-60mL/min/1.73m²) were evaluated.

EXPOSURES

RAS inhibitor versus CCB therapy initiation.

OUTCOME

Initiation of KRT (maintenance dialysis or transplantation), all-cause mortality, and MACE (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke).

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

HRs with 95% CIs were estimated using propensity score-weighted Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for demographic, clinical, and laboratory covariates.

RESULTS

Median age was 74 years, 38% were women, and median follow-up was 4.1 years. After propensity score weighting, there was significantly lower risk for KRT after new use of RAS inhibitors compared with new use of CCBs (adjusted HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.69-0.89]) but similar risks for mortality (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.88-1.07]) and MACE (adjusted HR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.88-1.15]). Results were consistent across subgroups and in as-treated analyses. The positive control cohort of patients with CKD G3 showed similar KRT risk reduction (adjusted HR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.56-0.80]) with RAS inhibitor therapy compared with CCBs.

LIMITATIONS

Potential confounding by indication.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide evidence from real-world clinical practice that initiation of RAS inhibitor therapy compared with CCBs may confer kidney benefits among patients with advanced CKD, with similar cardiovascular protection.

External validation of prognostic models: what, why, how, when and where?

Prognostic models that aim to improve the prediction of clinical events, individualized treatment and decision-making are increasingly being developed and published. However, relatively few models are externally validated and validation by independent researchers is rare. External validation is necessary to determine a prediction model’s reproducibility and generalizability to new and different patients. Various methodological considerations are important when assessing or designing an external validation study. In this article, an overview is provided of these considerations, starting with what external validation is, what types of external validation can be distinguished and why such studies are a crucial step towards the clinical implementation of accurate prediction models. Statistical analyses and interpretation of external validation results are reviewed in an intuitive manner and considerations for selecting an appropriate existing prediction model and external validation population are discussed. This study enables clinicians and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of how to interpret model validation results and how to translate these results to their own patient population.

Twelve tips to offer a short authentic and experiential individual research opportunity to a large group of undergraduate students

Engaging students in research during medical school could contribute to creating an academic attitude among students, which underlies practicing evidence-based medicine in future professional practice. However, attempts to involve undergraduate students in research during medical training remain inadequate. Most medical schools educate large numbers of students at the same time, especially in early phases of medical training. Large scale education on the one hand and individually providing students with authentic research experiences on the other hand is considered not that easy to achieve. Drawing on our own experiences, existing literature and theories we propose twelve tips to design and implement a course in which authentic individual research experiences can be provided to a large group of undergraduate students.

TRIPOD statement: a preliminary pre-post analysis of reporting and methods of prediction models

OBJECTIVES

To assess the difference in completeness of reporting and methodological conduct of published prediction models before and after publication of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement.

METHODS

In the seven general medicine journals with the highest impact factor, we compared the completeness of the reporting and the quality of the methodology of prediction model studies published between 2012 and 2014 (pre-TRIPOD) with studies published between 2016 and 2017 (post-TRIPOD). For articles published in the post-TRIPOD period, we examined whether there was improved reporting for articles (1) citing the TRIPOD statement, and (2) published in journals that published the TRIPOD statement.

RESULTS

A total of 70 articles was included (pre-TRIPOD: 32, post-TRIPOD: 38). No improvement was seen for the overall percentage of reported items after the publication of the TRIPOD statement (pre-TRIPOD 74%, post-TRIPOD 76%, 95% CI of absolute difference: -4% to 7%). For the individual TRIPOD items, an improvement was seen for 16 (44%) items, while 3 (8%) items showed no improvement and 17 (47%) items showed a deterioration. Post-TRIPOD, there was no improved reporting for articles citing the TRIPOD statement, nor for articles published in journals that published the TRIPOD statement. The methodological quality improved in the post-TRIPOD period. More models were externally validated in the same article (absolute difference 8%, post-TRIPOD: 39%), used measures of calibration (21%, post-TRIPOD: 87%) and discrimination (9%, post-TRIPOD: 100%), and used multiple imputation for handling missing data (12%, post-TRIPOD: 50%).

CONCLUSIONS

Since the publication of the TRIPOD statement, some reporting and methodological aspects have improved. Prediction models are still often poorly developed and validated and many aspects remain poorly reported, hindering optimal clinical application of these models. Long-term effects of the TRIPOD statement publication should be evaluated in future studies.

The Association Between Pain Perception and Care Dependency in Older Nursing Home Residents: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Maintenance of independence is a challenge for nursing home residents whose pain is often substantial. The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between pain perception and care dependency in a population of Dutch nursing home residents.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Dutch nursing home residents aged 65 or older, excluding residents with a severe cognitive impairment.

METHODS

The Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) was used to rate pain perception from 0 to 10 in half-point increments and the Care Dependency Scale (CDS) to measure care dependency, with scores ranging from 15 (completely care dependent) to 75 (fully independent). Both measurements were repeated after a 2-month follow-up. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders. Missing data were dealt with by performing tenfold multiple imputation.

RESULTS

A total of 1256 residents (65% women, mean age 83 years) were included. At baseline, the median NRS pain score was 3.0 (interquartile range 0.0-6.0) and the mean CDS score was 55.9 (SD 11.5). Cross-sectionally, for 1-point increase in pain score, care dependency increased 0.65 points [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.83]. More pain at baseline was associated with slightly lower care dependency after 2 months (beta 0.20, 95% CI 0.01-0.39). Compared with residents whose pain decreased over 2 months, residents with stable pain or increased pain had a 2.27-point (95% CI 0.83-3.70) and 2.39-point (95% CI 0.87-3.90) greater increase in care dependency, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Pain perception and care dependency are associated in a population of older nursing home residents, and stable or increased pain is associated with increased care dependency progression. The findings of this study emphasize that pain and care dependency should not be assessed nor treated independently.

Acute kidney injury and kidney replacement therapy in COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) can affect hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with estimates ranging between 0.5% and 40%. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting incidence, mortality and risk factors for AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

We systematically searched 11 electronic databases until 29 May 2020 for studies in English reporting original data on AKI and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Incidences of AKI and KRT and risk ratios for mortality associated with AKI were pooled using generalized linear mixed and random-effects models. Potential risk factors for AKI were assessed using meta-regression. Incidences were stratified by geographic location and disease severity.

RESULTS

A total of 3042 articles were identified, of which 142 studies were included, with 49 048 hospitalized COVID-19 patients including 5152 AKI events. The risk of bias of included studies was generally low. The pooled incidence of AKI was 28.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.8-39.5] among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from the USA and Europe (20 studies) and 5.5% (95% CI 4.1-7.4) among patients from China (62 studies), whereas the pooled incidence of KRT was 7.7% (95% CI 5.1-11.4; 18 studies) and 2.2% (95% CI 1.5-3.3; 52 studies), respectively. Among patients admitted to the intensive care unit, the incidence of KRT was 20.6% (95% CI 15.7-26.7; 38 studies). Meta-regression analyses showed that age, male sex, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic kidney disease were associated with the occurrence of AKI; in itself, AKI was associated with an increased risk of mortality, with a pooled risk ratio of 4.6 (95% CI 3.3-6.5).

CONCLUSIONS

AKI and KRT are common events in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with estimates varying across geographic locations. Additional studies are needed to better understand the underlying mechanisms and optimal treatment of AKI in these patients.

Stopping renin-angiotensin system blockers after acute kidney injury and risk of adverse outcomes: parallel population-based cohort studies in English and Swedish routine care

BACKGROUND

The safety of restarting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) after acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. There is concern that previous users do not restart ACEI/ARB despite ongoing indications. We sought to determine the risk of adverse events after an episode of AKI, comparing prior ACEI/ARB users who stop treatment to those who continue.

METHODS

We conducted two parallel cohort studies in English and Swedish primary and secondary care, 2006-2016. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for hospital admission with heart failure (primary analysis), AKI, stroke, or death within 2 years after hospital discharge following a first AKI episode. We compared risks of admission between people who stopped ACEI/ARB treatment to those who were prescribed ACEI/ARB within 30 days of AKI discharge. We undertook sensitivity analyses, including propensity score-matched samples, to explore the robustness of our results.

RESULTS

In England, we included 7303 people with AKI hospitalisation following recent ACEI/ARB therapy for the primary analysis. Four thousand three (55%) were classified as stopping ACEI/ARB based on no prescription within 30 days of discharge. In Sweden, we included 1790 people, of whom 1235 (69%) stopped treatment. In England, no differences were seen in subsequent risk of heart failure (HR 1.10; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.93-1.30), AKI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.77-1.05), or stroke (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.71-1.38), but there was an increased risk of death (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) in those who stopped ACEI/ARB compared to those who continued. Results were similar in Sweden: no differences were seen in risk of heart failure (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.73-1.13) or AKI (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.54-1.21). However, no increased risk of death was seen (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.78-1.13) and stroke was less common in people who stopped ACEI/ARB (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.93). Results were similar across all sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous ACEI/ARB users who continued treatment after an episode of AKI did not have an increased risk of heart failure or subsequent AKI compared to those who stopped the drugs.

Evidence-based medicine-When observational studies are better than randomized controlled trials

In evidence-based medicine, clinical research questions may be addressed by different study designs. This article describes when randomized controlled trials (RCT) are needed and when observational studies are more suitable. According to the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, study designs can be divided into analytic and non-analytic (descriptive) study designs. Analytic studies aim to quantify the association of an intervention (eg, treatment) or a naturally occurring exposure with an outcome. They can be subdivided into experimental (ie, RCT) and observational studies. The RCT is the best study design to evaluate the intended effect of an intervention, because the randomization procedure breaks the link between the allocation of the intervention and patient prognosis. If the randomization of the intervention or exposure is not possible, one needs to depend on observational analytic studies, but these studies usually suffer from bias and confounding. If the study focuses on unintended effects of interventions (ie, effects of an intervention that are not intended or foreseen), observational analytic studies are the most suitable study designs, provided that there is no link between the allocation of the intervention and the unintended effect. Furthermore, non-analytic studies (ie, descriptive studies) also rely on observational study designs. In summary, RCTs and observational study designs are inherently different, and depending on the study aim, they each have their own strengths and weaknesses.

Prediction meets causal inference: the role of treatment in clinical prediction models

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a 'predictimand' framework of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. We provide a formal definition of the estimands matching these questions, give examples of settings in which each is useful and discuss appropriate estimators including their assumptions. We illustrate the impact of the predictimand choice in a dataset of patients with end-stage kidney disease. We argue that clearly defining the estimand is equally important in prediction research as in causal inference.

A systematic review and external validation of stroke prediction models demonstrates poor performance in dialysis patients

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to systematically review and externally assess the predictive performance of models for ischemic stroke in incident dialysis patients.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Two reviewers systematically searched and selected ischemic stroke models. Risk of bias was assessed with the PROBAST. Predictive performance was evaluated within The Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD), a large prospective multicenter cohort of incident dialysis patients. For discrimination, c-statistics were calculated; calibration was assessed by plotting predicted and observed probabilities for stroke, and calibration-in-the-large.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven prediction models for stroke were identified, of which 15 were validated. Risk of bias was high, with all of these models scoring high risk in one or more domains. In NECOSAD, of the 1,955 patients, 127 (6.5%) suffered an ischemic stroke during the follow-up of 2.5 years. Compared with the original studies, most models performed worse with all models showing poor calibration and discriminative abilities (c-statistics ranging from 0.49 to 0.66). The Framingham showed reasonable calibration; however, with a c-statistic of 0.57 (95% CI 0.50-0.63), the discrimination was poor.

CONCLUSION

This external validation demonstrates the weak predictive performance of ischemic stroke models in incident dialysis patients. Instead of using these models in this fragile population, either existing models should be updated, or novel models should be developed and validated.

The impact of symptoms on health-related quality of life in elderly pre-dialysis patients: effect and importance in the EQUAL study

BACKGROUND

Quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients feel that symptoms are an important determinant of QoL. However, this relation is unknown. The aims of this study were to investigate the impact of the number and severity of symptoms on QoL in elderly pre-dialysis patients, assessed by both the effect of symptoms and their importance relative to kidney function, and other clinical variables on QoL.

METHODS

The European Quality study (EQUAL study) is an ongoing European prospective follow-up study in late Stage 4/5 CKD patients aged ≥65 years. We used patients included between March 2012 and December 2015. Patients scored their symptoms with the Dialysis Symptom Index, and QoL with the research and development-36 (RAND-36) item Health Survey (RAND-36). The RAND-36 results in a physical component summary (PCS) and a mental component summary (MCS). We used linear regression to estimate the relation between symptoms and QoL at baseline and after 6 months, and to calculate the variance in QoL explained by symptoms.

RESULTS

The baseline questionnaire was filled in by 1079 (73%) patients (median age 75 years, 66% male, 98% Caucasian), and the follow up questionnaire by 627 (42%) patients. At baseline, every additional symptom changed MCS with -0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.91 to -0.71] and PCS with -0.50 (95% CI: -0.62 to -0.39). In univariable analyses, number of symptoms explained 22% of MCS variance and 11% of PCS variance, whereas estimated glomerular filtration rate only explained 1%.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly CKD Stage 4/5 patients, symptoms have a substantial impact on QoL. This indicates symptoms should have a more prominent role in clinical decision-making.

Predicting mortality risk on dialysis and conservative care: development and internal validation of a prediction tool for older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease

Background

Conservative care (CC) may be a valid alternative to dialysis for certain older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A model that predicts patient prognosis on both treatment pathways could be of value in shared decision-making. Therefore, the aim is to develop a prediction tool that predicts the mortality risk for the same patient for both dialysis and CC from the time of treatment decision.

Methods

CKD Stage 4/5 patients aged ≥70 years, treated at a single centre in the Netherlands, were included between 2004 and 2016. Predictors were collected at treatment decision and selected based on literature and an expert panel. Outcome was 2-year mortality. Basic and extended logistic regression models were developed for both the dialysis and CC groups. These models were internally validated with bootstrapping. Model performance was assessed with discrimination and calibration.

Results

In total, 366 patients were included, of which 126 chose CC. Pre-selected predictors for the basic model were age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Discrimination was moderate, with optimism-corrected C-statistics ranging from 0.675 to 0.750. Calibration plots showed good calibration.

Conclusions

A prediction tool that predicts 2-year mortality was developed to provide older advanced CKD patients with individualized prognosis estimates for both dialysis and CC. Future studies are needed to test whether our findings hold in other CKD populations. Following external validation, this prediction tool could be used to compare a patient’s prognosis on both dialysis and CC, and help to inform treatment decision-making.

Performance of bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Bleeding risk scores have been created to identify patients with an increased bleeding risk, which could also be useful in dialysis patients. However, the predictive performances of these bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients are unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to validate existing bleeding risk scores in dialysis patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 1745 incident dialysis patients was prospectively followed for 3 years during which bleeding events were registered. We evaluated the discriminative performance of the Hypertension, Abnormal kidney and liver function, Stroke, Bleeding, Labile INR, Elderly and Drugs or alcohol (HASBLED), the AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation (ATRIA), the Hepatic or kidney disease, Ethanol abuse, Malignancy, Older age, Reduced platelet count or Reduced platelet function, Hypertension, Anaemia, Genetic factors, Excessive fall risk and Stroke (HEMORR2HAGES) and the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment (ORBIT) bleeding risk scores by calculating C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals (CI). In addition, calibration was evaluated by comparing predicted and observed risks.

RESULTS

Of the 1745 dialysis patients, 183 patients had a bleeding event, corresponding to an incidence rate of 5.23/100 person-years. The HASBLED [C-statistic of 0.58 (95% CI 0.54-0.62)], ATRIA [C-statistic of 0.55 (95% CI 0.51-0.60)], HEMORR2HAGES [C-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI 0.52-0.61)] and ORBIT [C-statistic of 0.56 (95% CI 0.52-0.61)] risk scores had poor discriminative performances in dialysis patients. Furthermore, the calibration analyses showed that patients with a low risk of bleeding according to the HASBLED, ATRIA, HEMORR2HAGES and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had higher incidence rates for bleeding in our cohort than predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

The HASBLED, ATRIA, HEMORR2HAGES and ORBIT bleeding risk scores had poor predictive abilities in dialysis patients. Therefore, these bleeding risk scores may not be useful in this population.

Pitfalls of linear regression for estimating slopes over time and how to avoid them by using linear mixed-effects models

Clinical epidemiological studies often focus on investigating the underlying causes of disease. For instance, a nephrologist may be interested in the association between blood pressure and the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, instead of focusing on the mere occurrence of CKD, the decline of kidney function over time might be the outcome of interest. For examining this kidney function trajectory, patients are typically followed over time with their kidney function estimated at several time points. During follow-up, some patients may drop out earlier than others and for different reasons. Furthermore, some patients may have greater kidney function at study entry or faster kidney function decline than others. Also, a substantial heterogeneity may exist in the number of kidney function estimates available for each patient. This heterogeneity with respect to kidney function, dropout and number of kidney function estimates is important to take into account when estimating kidney function trajectories. In general, two methods are used in the literature to estimate kidney function trajectories over time: linear regression to estimate individual slopes and the linear mixed-effects model (LMM), i.e. repeated measures analysis. Importantly, the linear regression method does not properly take into account the above-mentioned heterogeneity, whereas the LMM is able to retain all information and variability in the data. However, the underlying concepts, use and interpretation of LMMs are not always straightforward. Therefore we illustrate this using a clinical example and offer a framework of how to model and interpret the LMM.

Low thyroid function is not associated with an accelerated deterioration in renal function

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is frequently accompanied by thyroid hormone dysfunction. It is currently unclear whether these alterations are the cause or consequence of CKD. This study aimed at studying the effect of thyroid hormone alterations on renal function in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in individuals from all adult age groups.

METHODS

Individual participant data (IPD) from 16 independent cohorts having measured thyroid stimulating hormone, free thyroxine levels and creatinine levels were included. Thyroid hormone status was defined using clinical cut-off values. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated by means of the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. For this IPD meta-analysis, eGFR at baseline and eGFR change during follow-up were computed by fitting linear regression models and linear mixed models in each cohort separately. Effect estimates were pooled using random effects models.

RESULTS

A total of 72 856 individuals from 16 different cohorts were included. At baseline, individuals with overt hypothyroidism (n = 704) and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 3356) had a average (95% confidence interval) -4.07 (-6.37 to -1.78) and -2.40 (-3.78 to -1.02) mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR as compared with euthyroid subjects (n = 66 542). In (subclinical) hyperthyroid subjects (n = 2254), average eGFR was 3.01 (1.50-4.52) mL/min/1.73 m2 higher. During 329 713 patient years of follow-up, eGFR did not decline more rapidly in individuals with low thyroid function compared with individuals with normal thyroid function.

CONCLUSIONS

Low thyroid function is not associated with a deterioration of renal function. The cross-sectional association may be explained by renal dysfunction causing thyroid hormone alterations.

Mortality after amputation in dialysis patients is high but not modified by diabetes status

Background

Survival among dialysis patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is inferior to survival of non-diabetic dialysis patients, probably due to the higher prevalence of diabetes-related comorbid conditions. One could hypothesize that these comorbid conditions also contribute to a decreased survival after amputation in diabetic patients compared with non-diabetic patients on dialysis.

Methods

Data were collected from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis, a multicentre, prospective cohort study in which new patients with end-stage renal disease were monitored until transplantation or death. Amputation rates (incident cases) were calculated in patients with and without DM. The primary endpoint was all-cause survival after first amputation during dialysis therapy in diabetic patients compared with non-diabetic dialysis patients with an amputation. This was formally assessed using interaction analysis (Poisson regression).

Results

During follow-up (mean duration 2.9 years), 50 of the 413 diabetic patients had a new amputation (12.1%), compared with 20 of 1553 non-diabetic patients (1.2%). Amputation rates/1000 person-years were 47.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 36.3–63.2] and 4.1 (95% CI 2.7–6.4), respectively, for diabetic patients and non-diabetic patients. Amputation increased mortality risk more than 4-fold in patients without diabetes [hazard ratio (HR) 4.6 (95% CI 2.8–7.6)] as well as in patients with diabetes [HR 4.6 (95% CI 3.3–6.4)]. No formal interaction between diabetes and amputation was found (P = 0.12).

Conclusions

Amputation in dialysis patients is associated with a 4-fold increased mortality risk; this mortality risk was similar for diabetes and non-diabetes patients. Importantly, the risk for amputation is 10-fold higher in DM compared with non-diabetic dialysis patients.