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Md Nadzri MN, Md Zamri ASS, Singh S, Sumarni MG, Lai CH, Tan CV, Aris T, Mohd Ibrahim H, Gill BS, Mohd Ghazali N, Md Iderus NH, Lim MC, Ahmad LCRQ, Kamarudin MK, Ahmad NAR, Tee KK, Zulkifli AA. Description of the COVID-19 epidemiology in Malaysia. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1289622. [PMID: 38544725 PMCID: PMC10968133 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1289622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, it has spread rapidly across the world and has resulted in recurrent outbreaks. This study aims to describe the COVID-19 epidemiology in terms of COVID-19 cases, deaths, ICU admissions, ventilator requirements, testing, incidence rate, death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and test positivity rate for each outbreak from the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 till endemicity of COVID-19 in 2022 in Malaysia. Methods Data was sourced from the GitHub repository and the Ministry of Health's official COVID-19 website. The study period was from the beginning of the outbreak in Malaysia, which began during Epidemiological Week (Ep Wk) 4 in 2020, to the last Ep Wk 18 in 2022. Data were aggregated by Ep Wk and analyzed in terms of COVID-19 cases, deaths, ICU admissions, ventilator requirements, testing, incidence rate, death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and test positivity rate by years (2020 and 2022) and for each outbreak of COVID-19. Results A total of 4,456,736 cases, 35,579 deaths and 58,906,954 COVID-19 tests were reported for the period from 2020 to 2022. The COVID-19 incidence rate, death rate, CFR and test positivity rate were reported at 1.085 and 0.009 per 1,000 populations, 0.80 and 7.57%, respectively, for the period from 2020 to 2022. Higher cases, deaths, testing, incidence/death rate, CFR and test positivity rates were reported in 2021 and during the Delta outbreak. This is evident by the highest number of COVID-19 cases, ICU admissions, ventilatory requirements and deaths observed during the Delta outbreak. Conclusion The Delta outbreak was the most severe compared to other outbreaks in Malaysia's study period. In addition, this study provides evidence that outbreaks of COVID-19, which are caused by highly virulent and transmissible variants, tend to be more severe and devastating if these outbreaks are not controlled early on. Therefore, close monitoring of key epidemiological indicators, as reported in this study, is essential in the control and management of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Malaysia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadzri
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Sarbhan Singh
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Ghazali Sumarni
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Chee Herng Lai
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Cia Vei Tan
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Tahir Aris
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | | | - Balvinder Singh Gill
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur’Ain Mohd Ghazali
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mei Cheng Lim
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur Ar Rabiah Ahmad
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Kok Keng Tee
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Asrul Anuar Zulkifli
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
- International Medical School, Management and Science University, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
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Lim MC, Singh S, Lai CH, Gill BS, Kamarudin MK, Md Zamri ASS, Tan CV, Zulkifli AA, Nadzri MNM, Mohd Ghazali N, Mohd Ghazali S, Md Iderus NH, Ahmad NARB, Suppiah J, Tee KK, Aris T, Ahmad LCRQ. Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models. Epidemiol Health 2023; 45:e2023093. [PMID: 37905314 PMCID: PMC10867513 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2023093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak. METHODS SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison. RESULTS In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario). CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mei Cheng Lim
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Sarbhan Singh
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Chee Herng Lai
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Balvinder Singh Gill
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Cia Vei Tan
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Asrul Anuar Zulkifli
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadzri
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur'ain Mohd Ghazali
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Sumarni Mohd Ghazali
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur Ar Rabiah Binti Ahmad
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Jeyanthi Suppiah
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Kok Keng Tee
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Tahir Aris
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
| | - Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad
- Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
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Md Iderus NH, Singh SSL, Ghazali SM, Zulkifli AA, Ghazali NAM, Lim MC, Ahmad LCRQ, Md Nadzri MN, Tan CV, Md Zamri ASS, Lai CH, Nordin NS, Kamarudin MK, Wan MK, Mokhtar N, Jelip J, Gill BS, Ahmad NAR. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on dengue cases in Malaysia. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1213514. [PMID: 37693699 PMCID: PMC10484591 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1213514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the transmission dynamics and distribution of dengue. Therefore, this study aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the geographic and demographic distribution of dengue incidence in Malaysia. Methods This study analyzed dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2021 and COVID-19 confirmed cases from January 2020 to December 2021 which was divided into the pre (2014 to 2019) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) phases. The average annual dengue case incidence for geographical and demographic subgroups were calculated and compared between the pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic phases. In addition, Spearman rank correlation was performed to determine the correlation between weekly dengue and COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic phase. Results Dengue trends in Malaysia showed a 4-year cyclical trend with dengue case incidence peaking in 2015 and 2019 and subsequently decreasing in the following years. Reductions of 44.0% in average dengue cases during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase was observed at the national level. Higher dengue cases were reported among males, individuals aged 20-34 years, and Malaysians across both phases. Weekly dengue cases were significantly correlated (ρ = -0.901) with COVID-19 cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion There was a reduction in dengue incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic phase. Significant reductions were observed across all demographic groups except for the older population (>75 years) across the two phases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nuur Hafizah Md Iderus
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Sarbhan Singh Lakha Singh
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Sumarni Mohd Ghazali
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Asrul Anuar Zulkifli
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur Ain Mohd Ghazali
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mei Cheng Lim
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Lonny Chen Rong Qi Ahmad
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mohamad Nadzmi Md Nadzri
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Cia Vei Tan
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Chee Herng Lai
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur Shuhada Nordin
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Kamarulariffin Kamarudin
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Ming Keong Wan
- Vector-Borne Disease Sector, Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - Norhayati Mokhtar
- Vector-Borne Disease Sector, Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - Jenarun Jelip
- Vector-Borne Disease Sector, Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - Balvinder Singh Gill
- Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Nur Ar Rabiah Ahmad
- Biomedical Epidemiology Unit, Special Resource Centre, Institute for Medical Research, National Institutes of Health, Ministry of Health, Shah Alam, Malaysia
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