Machine learning-based clinical decision support system for treatment recommendation and overall survival prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma: a multi-center study

The treatment decisions for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are determined by a wide range of factors, and there is a significant difference between the recommendations of widely used staging systems and the actual initial treatment choices. Herein, we propose a machine learning-based clinical decision support system suitable for use in multi-center settings. We collected data from nine institutions in South Korea for training and validation datasets. The internal and external datasets included 935 and 1750 patients, respectively. We developed a model with 20 clinical variables consisting of two stages: the first stage which recommends initial treatment using an ensemble voting machine, and the second stage, which predicts post-treatment survival using a random survival forest algorithm. We derived the first and second treatment options from the results with the highest and the second-highest probabilities given by the ensemble model and predicted their post-treatment survival. When only the first treatment option was accepted, the mean accuracy of treatment recommendation in the internal and external datasets was 67.27% and 55.34%, respectively. The accuracy increased to 87.27% and 86.06%, respectively, when the second option was included as the correct answer. Harrell's C index, integrated time-dependent AUC curve, and integrated Brier score of survival prediction in the internal and external datasets were 0.8381 and 0.7767, 91.89 and 86.48, 0.12, and 0.14, respectively. The proposed system can assist physicians by providing data-driven predictions for reference from other larger institutions or other physicians within the same institution when making treatment decisions.

Impact of Intrahepatic External Beam Radiotherapy in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors

Introduction

We aimed to investigate whether concurrent use of intrahepatic external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) is a viable option for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy.

Methods

A total of 453 patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C (BCLC C) HCC, who started first-line treatment with TKI with intrahepatic EBRT (TKI + RT, n = 97) or TKI without intrahepatic EBRT (TKI, n = 356) were analyzed. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared in the overall cohort, patients who received at least 8 weeks of TKI treatment and a propensity score-matched cohort.

Results

OS and PFS were better in those treated with TKI + RT than TKI (8.6 vs. 4.4 months and 4.5 vs. 2.3 months, respectively, with p < 0.001). Of note, the TKI + RT group demonstrated significantly longer time to intrahepatic tumor progression. In subgroup analysis, TKI + RT led to better OS than TKI in all subgroups and PFS was significantly improved in patients without extrahepatic metastasis and those with portal vein invasion. There was no significant difference in treatment discontinuation due to adverse events between the TKI + RT and TKI groups (32.0% vs. 37.9%, p = 0.34). Furthermore, patients treated with TKI + RT showed better liver function preservation over time compared to TKI without intrahepatic EBRT. Comparable treatment outcomes were observed between patients who received at least 8 weeks of TKI treatment and the propensity score-matched cohort.

Conclusion

Concurrent intrahepatic EBRT targeting the liver and/or macrovascular invasion can be a viable option to improve outcomes of BCLC stage C patients receiving TKI therapy with an aim to control intrahepatic progression and preserving the liver function.

External validation of subclassification system and progression pattern analysis in hepatocelluar carcinoma with macroscopic vascular invasion

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The present study aimed to validate the performance of a previously proposed subclassification model to predict prognosis after combined transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and external beam radiotherapy (RT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with macrovascular invasion (MVI) in an independent cohort that received the same first-line treatment for the patients with the similar disease extent characteristics, and analyzed the progression patterns as well as progression-free survival (PFS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was conducted using prospectively collected data from the XXXXX HCC registry for newly diagnosed, previously untreated HCC between 2005 and 2018. Finally, 417 patients who satisfied the eligibility criteria were included and analyzed.

RESULTS

The median PFS and overall survival (OS) were 5.2 and 13.9 months, respectively. Similar to a previous study, subclassification of patients into very low-, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups showed a median OS of 98.4, 18.3, 9.7, and 5.8 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Additionally, subclassification of patients into the very low-, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups showed median PFS of 18.7, 6.7, 3.3, and 2.3 months, respectively (p < 0.001). Overall, intrahepatic progression was the most common pattern of progression; however, extrahepatic progression was more common in the intermediate- and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSION

The previously proposed subclassification model was successfully validated in an independent cohort. Treatment modification should be considered in the intermediate- and high-risk patient groups because of their frequent extrahepatic as well as intrahepatic progressions after combined TACE and RT.

Pretransplant Functional Status Predicts Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality after Liver Transplantation in Patients with Cirrhosis

Background/Aims

This study aimed to investigate whether pretransplant frailty can predict postoperative morbidity and mortality after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 242 patients who underwent LT between 2018 and 2020 at a tertiary hospital in Korea.

Results

Among them, 189 patients (78.1%) received LT from a living donor. Physical frailty at baseline was assessed by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), by which patients were categorized into two groups: frail (SPPB <10) and non-frail (SPPB ≥10). Among the whole cohort (age, 55.0±9.2 years; male, 165 [68.2%]), 182 patients were classified as non-frail and 60 patients were classified as frail. Posttransplant survival was shorter in the frail group than the non-frail group (9.3 months vs 11.6 months). Postoperative intensive care unit stay was longer in the frail group than in the non-frail group (median, 6 days vs 4 days), and the 30-day complication rate was higher in the frail group than in the non-frail group (78.3% vs 59.3%). Frailty was an independent risk factor for posttransplant mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 5.57). In subgroup analysis, frail patients showed lower posttransplant survival regardless of history of hepatocellular carcinoma and donor type.

Conclusions

Assessment of pretransplant frailty, as measured by SPPB, provides important prognostic information for clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients undergoing LT.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma based on real-world practice

BACKGROUND/AIM

Patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have limited treatment options, thus necessitating the identification of prognostic factors and the development of predictive tools. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and to construct a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in patients with large HCC.

METHODS

A cohort of 438 patients, who were diagnosed with large HCC at a tertiary hospital between 2015 and 2018, was analyzed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify key prognosticators of overall survival (OS), and an independent set of prognostic factors was used to develop a nomogram. The discrimination and calibration abilities of the nomogram were assessed and internal validation was performed using cross-validation and bootstrapping methods.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.3 months, the median OS was 9.9 months, and the 1-year OS rate was 43.9%. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that performance status, modified albumin-bilirubin grade, tumor size, extent of portal vein tumor thrombosis, and initial treatment significantly affected OS. The newly developed nomogram incorporating these variables demonstrated favorable accuracy (Harrell's concordance index, 0.807).

CONCLUSIONS

The newly developed nomogram facilitated the estimation of individual survival outcomes in patients with large HCC, providing an acceptable level of accuracy.

Validation of non-invasive diagnosis of CSPH in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease according to Baveno VII

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Baveno VII consensus introduced the non-invasive criteria of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) using liver stiffness measurement (LSM). We evaluated the usefulness of the Baveno VII criteria to predict the risk of decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1966 patients with cACLD. Patients were categorized into four groups (CSPH excluded (n = 619), grey zone (low risk of CSPH (n = 699), high risk of CSPH (n = 207)), and CSPH included (n = 441)) according to Baveno VII consensus. The risk of events was estimated using a Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis, with liver transplantation and death as competing events. We calculated standardized hazard ratios (sHR) to assess the relative risk of decompensation.

RESULTS

Among 1966 patients, 178 developed decompensations over a median follow-up of 3.06 (IQR: 1.03-6.00) years. Patients with CSPH had the highest decompensation risk, followed by the grey zone high-risk group, grey zone low-risk group, and those without CSPH with 3-year cumulative risks of 22%, 12%, 3.3%, and 1.4% respectively (p < .001). Compared to CSPH excluded group, CSPH included group (sHR: 8.00, 95% CI: 4.00-16.0), grey zone high-risk group (sHR: 6.57, 95% CI: 3.16-13.6), grey zone low-risk group (sHR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.04-4.41) had significantly higher risk of decompensation (Gray's test p < .01).

CONCLUSION

Non-invasive diagnosis of CSPH according to the Baveno VII criteria can stratify the risk of decompensation.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background & Aims

The metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a new inclusive term proposed to replace non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We analysed whether hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk differs by MAFLD or NAFLD status in a large sample of asymptomatic adults.

Methods

A cohort comprising 73,691 adults were followed up for the development of HCC. NAFLD was diagnosed among participants without other liver diseases (n = 65,992).

Results

Participants with MAFLD showed higher incidence of HCC than those without MAFLD (0.37 and 0.24 per 1,000 person-years, respectively; p = 0.006). However, MAFLD was not an independent factor associated with HCC in multivariable adjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21; 95% CI 0.92-1.60). When stratified according to presence of other liver diseases, MAFLD was not associated with HCC in participants with other liver diseases. In participants without other liver diseases, both MAFLD (adjusted HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.09-3.11) and NAFLD (adjusted HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.01-2.90) were independent factors associated with HCC. When stratified according to NAFLD and MAFLD status, there was no HCC development among participants with NAFLD only during 8,936 person-years of follow-up, but this NAFLD-only group comprised 3.4%, and the majority of participants with hepatic steatosis fulfilled both NAFLD and MAFLD criteria.

Conclusions

In patients with other chronic liver diseases, the presence of MAFLD is not independently associated with an increased risk of HCC. For those without other chronic liver diseases, MAFLD largely overlaps with NAFLD and is associated with an increased risk of HCC.

Impact and Implications

This study investigated the usefulness of newly proposed nomenclature, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), over non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), in terms of predicting hepatocellular carcinoma. In patients with other chronic liver diseases, the presence of MAFLD is not independently associated with an increased risk of HCC. However, for those without chronic liver disease, MAFLD largely overlaps with NAFLD and is associated with an increased risk of HCC.

Improved on-treatment fibrosis-4 during antiviral therapy and lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B

Normalization of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels is one of the goals of hepatitis B treatment. However, ALT levels in cirrhosis patients might be normal or mildly elevated regardless of ongoing inflammation. Therefore, we examined whether on-treatment ALT and other potential on-treatment indicators could be clinical surrogates of antiviral therapy in HBV-related cirrhosis. A total of 911 patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis who started treatment with entecavir or tenofovir were analyzed. At 1 year of antiviral therapy, we evaluated 'ALT normalization', 'undetectable serum HBV DNA', 'fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index improvement', and 'serum HBeAg loss' as potential biomarkers for HCC development. During 6.6 (3.8-10.2) years of follow-up, 222 patients (24.3%) newly developed HCC. Undetectable HBV DNA levels at 1 year were observed in 667 patients (73.2%), and the HCC incidence was significantly lower in this population (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.87). Improvement of the FIB-4 index (< 3.25) was associated with a lower risk of HCC in 478 patients with an elevated FIB-4 index (adjusted HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.55-0.82). However, there was no significant difference in HCC risk between those with and without normalization of ALT levels (p = 0.39) among those with elevated ALT levels or between those with and without HBeAg seroconversion (p = 0.55) among HBeAg-positive patients. Therefore, on-treatment FIB-4 levels at 1 year are clinically useful surrogates of antiviral therapy for HBV-related cirrhosis patients.

Radiotherapy trend in elderly hepatocellular carcinoma: retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed between 2005 and 2017

PURPOSE

To report the trends of radiotherapy in the management of elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients who entered HCC registry of Samsung Medical Center between 2005 and 2017. Patients who were 75 years or older at the time of registration were defined as elderly. They were categorized into three groups based on the year of registration. Radiotherapy characteristics were compared between the groups to observe differences by age groups and period of registration.

RESULTS

Out of 9,132 HCC registry patients, elderly comprised 6.2% (566 patients) of the registry, and the proportion increased throughout the study period (from 3.1% to 11.4%). Radiotherapy was administered to 107 patients (18.9%) in elderly group. Radiotherapy utilization in the early treatment process (within 1 year after registration) has rapidly increased from 6.1% to 15.3%. All treatments before 2008 were delivered with two-dimensional or three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy, while more than two-thirds of treatments after 2017 were delivered with advanced techniques such as intensity-modulated radiotherapy, stereotactic body radiotherapy, or proton beam therapy. Overall survival (OS) of elderly was significantly worse than younger patients. However, for patients who received radiotherapy during the initial management (within one month after registration), there was no statistically significant difference in OS between age groups.

CONCLUSION

The proportion of elderly HCC is increasing. Radiotherapy utilization and adoption of advanced radiotherapy technique showed a consistently increasing trend for the group of patients, indicating that the role of radiotherapy in the management of elderly HCC is expanding.

Clinical Outcomes and Validation of Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response Scores in Patients with Korean Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Background/Aims

The ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) response score (URS) was developed to identify poor responders to UDCA before treatment, in order to offer timely and proactive intervention. However, validation of the URS in Asian population is warranted.

Methods

A total of 173 Asian patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) between 2007 and 2016 at seven academic institutions in Korea who started UDCA treatment were analyzed to validate the performance of URS. UDCA response was defined as an alkaline phosphatase level less than 1.67 times the upper limit of normal after 1-year of UDCA treatment. In addition, prognostic performance of URS for liver-related events, defined as newly developed hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma was evaluated.

Results

After 1 year of UDCA treatment, 133 patients (76.9%) achieved UDCA response. UDCA response rate was 98.7% for those with URS ≥1.41 (n=76) and 58.8% for those with URS <1.41 (n=97). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of URS in predicting UDCA response was 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.78 to 0.88). During a median follow-up of 6.5 years, liver-related events developed in 18 patients (10.4%). Among 117 patients with PBC stage I-III by histological evaluation, the 5-year liver-related event-free survival rate differed according to the URS; 100% for URS ≥1.41 and 86.5% for URS <1.41 (p=0.005).

Conclusions

URS demonstrated good performance in predicting a UDCA treatment response in Asian PBC patients. In addition, the risk of liver-related events differed according to the URS for the PBC stage. Thus, URS can be used to predict the response and clinical outcome in patients with PBC.

Clinical practice guideline and real-life practice in hepatocellular carcinoma: Korea perspective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of death in many countries including Korea. To provide useful and sensible advice for clinical management of patients with HCC, the Korean Liver Cancer Association and National Cancer Center (KLCA-NCC) Korea Practice Guideline Revision Committee has recently revised practice guidelines for the management of HCC. However, there are some differences between practice guidelines and real-life clinical practice for several reasons. In this review, we will describe some key recommendations of the 2022 version of practice guidelines and real-life clinical situation in Korea together with a discussion about efforts needed to reduce the gap between practice guidelines and real-life clinical practice.

Real Life Study of Lenvatinib Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: RELEVANT Study

INTRODUCTION

In the REFLECT trial, lenvatinib was found to be noninferior compared to sorafenib in terms of overall survival. Here, we analyze the effects of lenvatinib in the real-life experience of several centers across the world and identify clinical factors that could be significantly associated with survival outcomes.

METHODS

The study population was derived from retrospectively collected data of HCC patients treated with lenvatinib. The overall cohort included western and eastern populations from 23 center in five countries.

RESULTS

We included 1,325 patients with HCC and treated with lenvatinib in our analysis. Median OS was 16.1 months. Overall response rate was 38.5%. Multivariate analysis for OS highlighted that HBsAg positive, NLR >3, and AST >38 were independently associated with poor prognosis in all models. Conversely, NAFLD/NASH-related etiology was independently associated with good prognosis. Median progression-free survival was 6.3 months. Multivariate analysis for progression-free survival revealed that NAFLD/NASH, BCLC, NLR, and AST were independent prognostic factors for progression-free survival. A proportion of 75.2% of patients suffered from at least one adverse effect during the study period. Multivariate analysis exhibited the appearance of decreased appetite grade ≥2 versus grade 0-1 as an independent prognostic factor for worse progression-free survival. 924 patients of 1,325 progressed during lenvatinib (69.7%), and 827 of them had a follow-up over 2 months from the beginning of second-line treatment. From first-line therapy, the longest median OS was obtained with the sequence lenvatinib and immunotherapy (47.0 months), followed by TACE (24.7 months), ramucirumab (21.2 months), sorafenib (15.7 months), regorafenib (12.7 months), and best supportive care (10.8 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirms in a large and global population of patients with advanced HCC, not candidates for locoregional treatment the OS reported in the registration study and a high response rate with lenvatinib.

Safety and Efficacy of Liver-Directed Radiotherapy in Combination With Lenvatinib for Hepatocelluar Carcinoma With Macroscopic Tumor Thrombosis

Background

This study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and macroscopic tumor thrombosis who were treated with lenvatinib with or without combined liver-directed radiotherapy (LRT).

Methods

From the institutional registry, we enrolled 82 patients diagnosed with HCC involving macroscopic tumor thrombosis and treated with lenvatinib monotherapy (non-LRT group, n = 54, 65.9%) or lenvatinib in combination with LRT (LRT group, n = 28, 34.1%). Patients were classified into the LRT group if LRT was performed within 8 weeks of lenvatinib initiation.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 5.4 (range 1.4 to 17.5) months, there was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of overall adverse events. Although there was no statistical difference between the two groups in terms of overall response rate (32.1% vs. 20.4%, p = 0.15), a significantly higher treatment response was observed in the LRT group in terms of intrahepatic tumor response (67.9% vs. 20.4%, p < 0.001). In the LRT group, there was a slight difference in overall survival compared to the non-LRT group (64.1% in the LRT group vs. 37.7% in the non-LRT group at 12 months, hazard ratio [HR], 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28–1.03; p = .06), although it did not reach a statistically significant level. However, progression-free survival (PFS, 67.2% in the LRT group vs. 35.0% in the non-LRT group at 6 months, HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.27–0.82; p = 0.008) and intrahepatic progression-free survival (IHPFS, 74.3% in the LRT group vs. 43.3% in the non-LRT group at 6 months, HR 0.45; 95% CI 0.25–0.81; p = 0.008) were significantly superior in the LRT group. This result was also reproduced in the multivariate analysis adjusted for α-fetoprotein, another significant prognostic factor in this study, and the well-known prognostic factors, namely the presence of main portal vein tumor thrombosis and albumin-bilirubin grade.

Conclusions

The combination of lenvatinib and LRT is relatively safe and effective in increasing the intrahepatic tumor response and improving PFS and IHPFS in patients with HCC and macroscopic tumor thrombosis.

Statin and aspirin for chemoprevention of hepatocellular carcinoma: Time to use or wait further?

Preclinical studies highlighted potential therapeutic applications of aspirin and statins as anticancer agents based on their pleiotropic effects. Epidemiologic studies suggested the role of aspirin and statins in the chemoprevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, observational data is prone to bias, and no prospective randomized trials are currently available to assess the risks and benefits of statin or aspirin therapy for chemoprevention of HCC. It is therefore important for clinicians and researchers to be aware of the quality of current evidence regarding this issue. In this review, we summarize currently available evidence to assist clinicians with their decision to use statin or aspirin and provide information for further clinical investigations.

Incidence and risk factors for development of hepatocellular carcinoma at young age in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Some young adults with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection might be at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), enough to justify regular HCC surveillance despite the young age of the patients. However, ways to identify at-risk individuals who may benefit from HCC surveillance need further evaluations.

METHODS

A hospital-based retrospective cohort of 2757 chronic HBV mono-infected young adults (median age: 34 years, males 66%) were analyzed. The primary outcome was young-onset HCC, defined as a diagnosis made under 40 years of age. We calculated the HCC incidence/1000 person-years in the overall cohort and pre-defined subgroups of patients assessed the independent risk factors that can be used to identify surveillance targets.

RESULTS

The HCC incidence was low (2.55/1000 person-years) in the overall cohort. However, the HCC incidence varied widely according to baseline characteristics: lowest among young adults with FIB-4 ≤ 0.70 (0.17/1000 person-years) and highest in young adults with radiological cirrhosis (30.7/1000 person-years). In multivariable analysis, radiological cirrhosis, the FIB-4 index, and serum HBV DNA level were independent factors associated with HCC development at a young age. Performance for prediction of young-onset HCC in radiological cirrhotic patients showed the highest specificity but sensitivity was <70%. Combination with FIB-4 index and HBV DNA levels increased sensitivity to 90%.

CONCLUSION

Risk stratification using FIB-4 index, HBV DNA levels, and either combining radiological cirrhosis or gender and AFP levels would be helpful to stratify young patients who would and would not benefit from regular HCC surveillance.

The Association Between Breastfeeding and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Parous Women: A Nation-wide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Breastfeeding has multiple effects on maternal health outcomes. However, the effect of breastfeeding on NAFLD in parous women remains unclear.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A total of 6,893 Korean parous women aged 30-50 years who participated in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were assessed for the association between breastfeeding and NAFLD. Duration of lactation was calculated by dividing the total lactation period by the number of breastfed children. NAFLD was defined by the hepatic steatosis index. Of 6,893 women, 1,049 (15.2%) had NAFLD. Prevalence of NAFLD was 18.3%, 14.3%, 12.3%, 14.4%, and 15.8% in women with a breastfeeding period of <1, ≥1-<3, ≥3-<6, ≥6-<12, and ≥12 months, respectively. In a fully adjusted model, breastfeeding (≥1 month) was associated with reduced NAFLD prevalence (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.51-0.89) after adjusting for metabolic, socioeconomic, and maternal risk factors. Fully adjusted ORs (95% CI) decreased with an increase of breastfeeding duration: 0.74 (0.49-1.11), 0.70 (0.47-1.05), 0.67 (0.48-0.94), and 0.64 (0.46-0.89) for women with ≥1-<3, ≥3-<6, ≥6-<12, and ≥12 months of breastfeeding duration, respectively, compared to women with <1 month of breastfeeding duration. Such an association was also observed in all predefined subgroups without interaction.

CONCLUSIONS

Breastfeeding showed a protective effect against NAFLD in later life of parous women, suggesting a maternal benefit of breastfeeding on NAFLD.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in hepatocarcinoma: new insights about its prognostic role in patients treated with lenvatinib

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment remains a big challenge in the field of oncology. The liver disease (viral or not viral) underlying HCC turned out to be crucial in determining the biologic behavior of the tumor, including its response to treatment. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the role of the etiology of the underlying liver disease in survival outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a multicenter retrospective study on a large cohort of patients treated with lenvatinib as first-line therapy for advanced HCC from both Eastern and Western institutions. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Among the 1232 lenvatinib-treated HCC patients, 453 (36.8%) were hepatitis C virus positive, 268 hepatitis B virus positive (21.8%), 236 nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) correlate (19.2%) and 275 had other etiologies (22.3%). The median progression-free survival (mPFS) was 6.2 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9-6.7 months] and the median overall survival (mOS) was 15.8 months (95% CI 14.9-17.2 months). In the univariate analysis for OS NASH-HCC was associated with longer mOS [22.2 versus 15.1 months; hazard ratio (HR) 0.69; 95% CI 0.56-0.85; P = 0.0006]. In the univariate analysis for PFS NASH-HCC was associated with longer mPFS (7.5 versus 6.5 months; HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.71-0.99; P = 0.0436). The multivariate analysis confirmed NASH-HCC (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.48-0.86; P = 0.0028) as an independent prognostic factor for OS, along with albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, extrahepatic spread, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, portal vein thrombosis, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status and alpha-fetoprotein. An interaction test was performed between sorafenib and lenvatinib cohorts and the results highlighted the positive predictive role of NASH in favor of the lenvatinib arm (P = 0.0047).

CONCLUSION

NASH has been identified as an independent prognostic factor in a large cohort of patients with advanced HCC treated with lenvatinib, thereby suggesting the role of the etiology in the selection of patients for tyrosine kinase treatment. If validated, this result could provide new insights useful to improve the management of these patients.

Different Performance of Liver Stiffness Measurement According to Etiology and Outcome for the Prediction of Liver-Related Events

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) has shown promising results for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). However, whether prognostic performance of TE differs according to etiology or type of outcome remains further clarification.

METHODS

Performance of LSM for the prediction of HCC and hepatic decompensation was analyzed in a cohort of 4026 patients with asymptomatic CLD.

RESULTS

During median 4.5 years of follow-up (range 3.0-6.2 years), liver-related events (LRE) were observed in 196 patients (166 with HCC, 45 with hepatic decompensation, and 15 with both). In the multivariate analysis, LSM was independent factor associated with LRE and showed high AUROC (0.78). When stratified by type of outcome and etiology of liver disease, LSM showed high AUROC for the prediction of HCC for patients with non-viral hepatitis (0.89), while it showed relatively low AUROC for the prediction of HCC for patients with viral hepatitis (0.75). For the prediction of hepatic decompensation, LSM showed high AUROC for patients with both viral- and non-viral hepatitis (0.90, 0.90, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

LSM showed powerful prognostic role for the prediction of LRE in patients with CLD. Notably, HCC risk was not negligible in patients with viral hepatitis who showed LSM value < 10 kPa, indicating watchful attention for HCC is still needed for viral hepatitis patients with low LSM.

Recurrence pattern and surveillance strategy for rectal neuroendocrine tumors after endoscopic resection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Endoscopic resection is highly effective treatment option for rectal neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) as they usually present as small localized tumors. However, there are no well-established surveillance strategies following endoscopic resection. We established our own protocol for the surveillance of rectal NETs after endoscopic resection since 2013. This study aimed to assess the outcome and to optimize the surveillance strategies after endoscopic resection.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients with endoscopically treated rectal NETs between January 2013 and April 2018 at Samsung Medical Center. We analyzed 337 patients with a median follow-up duration of 35.0 months (min-max: 12.0-88.3).

RESULTS

A total of 329 (97.6%) patients had tumors ≤ 1 cm in size, and eight (2.4%) patients had tumors > 1 cm in diameter. Synchronous rectal NETs were diagnosed in nine (2.7%) patients. Thirteen (3.9%) patients were identified as having positive resection margins. Regardless of the salvage treatment, none of these patients developed recurrence. Metachronous rectal NETs were diagnosed in nine (2.7%) patients. Metachronous lesions were associated with the number of synchronous lesions at initial diagnosis (P < 0.001, hazard ratio = 1.75, 95% confidence interval = 1.38-2.23). Extracolonic metastasis was not detected in this study.

CONCLUSION

Although initial screening for detecting metastatic lesions using computed tomography is recommended, repeated imaging for detecting extracolonic recurrence was not necessary for small non-metastatic rectal NETs. However, regular endoscopic follow-up seems reasonable, especially in case of synchronous rectal NETs, for detecting metachronous rectal NETs.

Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients diagnosed under regular surveillance: potential implications for surveillance goal

AIMS

The goal of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is to diagnose cancer at an early stage when treatment is likely to provide the best outcome and thereby, reduce mortality. However, no specific criteria define the 'early stage' for tumors diagnosed under HCC surveillance. We aimed to analyze factors that determined the outcome of HCC patients diagnosed under regular surveillance, to find out how early it is necessary to detect tumors during surveillance.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 874 HCC patients with preserved liver function (Child-Pugh A) who were diagnosed under regular HCC surveillance at Samsung Medical Center from 2014 to 2016 and did not receive liver transplantation as an initial treatment were analyzed. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Tumor size, presence of vascular invasion, albumin-bilirubin grade, and initial treatment modality were independent factors for OS in multivariable analysis. When categorized according to the tumor size, the risk of mortality increased for tumors of > 3 cm, while tumors of 2-3 cm showed similar mortality risks as tumors of ≤2 cm. When categorized according to the tumor factors, curative-intent treatment (resection or ablation) can be applied to 84.5% with excellent outcomes (5-year OS rate, 93.4%), for tumors of ≤3 cm without vascular invasion.

CONCLUSIONS

When tumors of ≤3 cm were detected and had no vascular invasion, curative-intent treatment was applied for most patients and showed excellent OS. This finding suggests that to detect tumors of <3 cm without vascular invasion may be considered as the goal of HCC surveillance.

Efficacy and Safety of Lenvatinib Therapy for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Real-World Practice in Korea

BACKGROUND

Lenvatinib has been recently approved as a first-line treatment option for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Korea. We aimed to study the efficacy and safety of lenvatinib therapy in a real-world practice and to find prognostic factors related to survival and disease progression.

METHODS

A hospital-based retrospective study was conducted on 111 consecutive patients who had unresectable HCC and were treated with lenvatinib at Samsung Medical Center from October 2018 to March 2020. Efficacy was determined using the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) criteria in 111 patients who completed 1st tumor assessment. Safety was evaluated in 116 HCC patients including 5 patients who discontinued lenvatinib due to adverse events (AEs) before 1st tumor assessment using Common Terminology Criteria for AEs version 5.0.

RESULTS

A total of 111 patients with a median age of 59 years were analyzed during a median follow-up duration of 6.2 (4.4-9.0) months. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of overall survival was 10.5 months, and the median progression-free survival was 6.2 months. Based on mRECIST criteria, the objective response rate was 18.9% and disease control rate was 75.7%. AEs developed in 86/116 (74.1%) patients, and grade ≥3 AEs developed in 16/116 (13.8%) patients. Diarrhea, hand-foot skin rash, abdominal pain, hypertension, and anorexia were identified as the AEs with the highest frequencies of any grade. REFLECT eligibility criteria including tumor extent ≥50% liver occupation or inadequate bone marrow function and occurrence of anorexia were prognostic factors for survival, and occurrence of diarrhea was a favorable factor for disease progression.

CONCLUSION

Lenvatinib therapy showed a favorable efficacy and safety in a real-world practice. The REFLECT eligibility criteria and specific AEs could be one of the prognostic markers.

Advanced Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Successfully Treated with Transarterial Radioembolization and Multi-tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Therapy

Transarterial radioembolization (TARE) with yttrium-90 microspheres has become widely utilized in managing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The utility of TARE is expanding with new insights through experiences from real-world practice and clinical trials, and recently published data suggest that TARE in combination with sorafenib may improve the overall survival in selected patients. Here, we report a case of advanced stage HCC that was successfully treated with TARE and sorafenib. The patient achieved complete response (CR) at 12 months after the initial treatment with TARE and sorafenib, followed by additional transarterial chemoembolization and proton beam therapy for local tumor recurrence at 19-month post-TARE. The patient was followed up every 3 months thereafter and still achieved CR both biochemically and radiologically for the following 12 months. A combination strategy of TARE and systemic therapy may be a useful alternative treatment option for selected patients with advanced stage HCC.

Statin Use and the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Statins have pleiotropic effects that may include chemoprevention. Several observational studies have suggested that statins may prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but they have not yet been fully studied in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A hospital-based retrospective cohort of 7,713 chronic HBV-infected individuals between January 2008 and December 2012 were analyzed. The primary outcome was the development of HCC. Patients who used statins for at least 28 cumulative defined daily doses during the follow-up period were defined as statin users (n = 713). The association between the use of statin and the incidence of HCC was analyzed using the multivariable Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates. During a median follow-up of 7.2 years (min-max: 0.5-9.9), HCC newly developed in 702 patients (9.1%). Statin use was associated with a lower risk of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.19-0.68, adjusted for age, sex, cirrhosis, diabetes, hypertension, serum alanine aminotransferase, cholesterol, HBV DNA level, antiviral treatment, and antiplatelet therapy). The observed benefit of the statin use was dose-dependent (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.63 [0.31-1.29]; 0.51 [0.21-1.25]; 0.32 [0.07,1.36]; and 0.17 [0.06, 0.48] for patients with statin use of 28-365, 366-730, 731-1095, and more than 1,095 cumulative defined daily doses, respectively). In subgroup analysis, the association between statin use and reduced risk of HCC was observed in all prespecified subgroups analyzed.

CONCLUSION

Statin use was associated with a reduced risk of HCC development in chronic HBV-infected patients, suggesting that statins may have a chemopreventive role in this population. These findings warrant a prospective evaluation.

Utility of intravoxel incoherent motion MR imaging for distinguishing recurrent metastatic tumor from treatment effect following gamma knife radiosurgery: initial experience

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Intravoxel incoherent motion MR imaging can simultaneously measure the diffusion and perfusion characteristics of brain tumors. Our aim was to determine the utility of intravoxel incoherent motion-derived perfusion and diffusion parameters for assessing the treatment response of metastatic brain tumor following gamma knife radiosurgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ninety-one consecutive patients with metastatic brain tumor treated with gamma knife radiosurgery were assessed by using intravoxel incoherent motion imaging. Two readers independently calculated the 90th percentile and the 10th percentile histogram cutoffs for perfusion, normalized CBV, diffusion, and ADC. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and interreader agreement were assessed.

RESULTS

With the combination of the 90th percentile histogram cutoff for perfusion and the 10th percentile histogram cutoff for diffusion, the sensitivity and specificity for differentiating recurrent tumor and treatment were 79.5% and 92.3% for reader 1 and 84.6% and 94.2% for reader 2, respectively. With the combination of the 90th percentile histogram cutoff for normalized CBV and the 10th percentile histogram cutoff for ADC, the sensitivity and specificity for differentiating recurrent tumor and treatment were 69.2% and 100.0% for reader 1 and 74.3% and 100.0% for reader 2, respectively. Compared with the combination of 90th percentile histogram cutoff for normalized CBV and the 10th percentile histogram cutoff for ADC, adding intravoxel incoherent motion to 90th percentile histogram cutoff for normalized CBV substantially improved the diagnostic accuracy for differentiating recurrent tumor and treatment from 86.8% to 92.3% for reader 1 and from 89.0% to 93.4% for reader 2, respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficients between readers were higher for perfusion parameters (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.84-0.89) than for diffusion parameters (intraclass correlation coefficient range, 0.68-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Following gamma knife radiosurgery, intravoxel incoherent motion MR imaging can be used as a noninvasive imaging biomarker for differentiating recurrent tumor from treatment effect in patients with metastatic brain tumor.

Clinical significance of an increased cochlear 3D fluid-attenuated inversion recovery signal intensity on an MR imaging examination in patients with acoustic neuroma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The increased cochlear signal on FLAIR images in patients with acoustic neuroma is explained by an increased concentration of protein in the perilymphatic space. However, there is still debate whether there is a correlation between the increased cochlear FLAIR signal and the degree of hearing disturbance in patients with acoustic neuroma. Our aim was to investigate the clinical significance of an increased cochlear 3D FLAIR signal in patients with acoustic neuroma according to acoustic neuroma extent in a large patient cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 102 patients with acoustic neuroma, who were divided into 2 groups based on tumor location; 22 tumors were confined to the internal auditory canal and 80 extended to the cerebellopontine angle cistern. Pure tone audiometry results and hearing symptoms were obtained from medical records. The relative signal intensity of the entire cochlea to the corresponding brain stem was calculated by placing regions of interest on 3D FLAIR images. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the cochlear relative signal intensity between the internal auditory canal acoustic neuroma and the cerebellopontine angle acoustic neuroma. The correlation between the cochlear relative signal intensity and the presence of hearing symptoms or the pure tone audiometry results was investigated.

RESULTS

The internal auditory canal acoustic neuroma cochlea had a significantly lower relative signal intensity than the cerebellopontine angle acoustic neuroma cochlea (0.42±0.15 versus 0.60±0.17, P<.001). The relative signal intensity correlated with the audiometric findings in patients with internal auditory canal acoustic neuroma (r=0.471, P=.027) but not in patients with cerebellopontine angle acoustic neuroma (P=.427). Neither internal auditory canal acoustic neuroma nor cerebellopontine angle acoustic neuroma showed significant relative signal intensity differences, regardless of the presence of hearing symptoms (P>.5).

CONCLUSIONS

The cochlear signal on FLAIR images may be an additional parameter to use when monitoring the degree of functional impairment during follow-up of patients with small acoustic neuromas confined to the internal auditory canals.