Communicable diseases in northwest Syria in the context of protracted armed conflict and earthquakes

The earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria in February, 2023, have caused further devastation in northwest Syria-an area already affected by protracted armed conflict, mass forced displacement, and inadequate health and humanitarian provision. The earthquake damaged infrastructure supporting water, sanitation, and hygiene, and health-care facilities. The disruptions to epidemiological surveillance and ongoing disease control measures resulting from the earthquake will accelerate and expand ongoing and new outbreaks of many communicable diseases including measles, cholera, tuberculosis, and leishmaniasis. Investing in existing early warning and response network activities in the area is essential. Antimicrobial resistance, which had already been an increasing concern in Syria before the earthquake, will also be exacerbated given the high number of traumatic injuries and breakdown of antimicrobial stewardship, and the collapse of infection prevention and control measures. Tackling communicable diseases in this setting requires multisectoral collaboration at the human-animal-environment nexus given the effect of the earthquakes on all these sectors. Without this collaboration, communicable disease outbreaks will further strain the already overburdened health system and cause further harm to the population.

"Actually, the psychological wounds are more difficult than physical injuries:" a qualitative analysis of the impacts of attacks on health on the personal and professional lives of health workers in the Syrian conflict

INTRODUCTION

Attacks on healthcare in armed conflict have far-reaching impacts on the personal and professional lives of health workers, as well as the communities they serve. Despite this, even in protracted conflicts such as in Syria, health workers may choose to stay despite repeated attacks on health facilities, resulting in compounded traumas. This research explores the intermediate and long-term impacts of such attacks on healthcare on the local health professionals who have lived through them with the aim of strengthening the evidence base around such impacts and better supporting them.

METHODS

We undertook purposive sampling of health workers in northwest and northeast Syria; we actively sought to interview non-physician and female health workers as these groups are often neglected in similar research. In-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted in Arabic and transcribed into English for framework analysis. We used an a priori codebook to explore the short- and long-term impacts of attacks on the health workers and incorporated emergent themes as analysis progressed.

RESULTS

A total of 40 health workers who had experienced attacks between 2013 and 2020 participated in IDIs. 13 were female (32.5%). Various health cadres including doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists, students in healthcare and technicians were represented. They were mainly based in Idlib (39.5%), and Aleppo (37.5%) governorates. Themes emerged related to personal and professional impacts as well as coping mechanisms. The key themes include firstly the psychological harms, second the impacts of the nature of the attacks e.g. anticipatory stress related to the 'double tap' nature of attacks as well as opportunities related to coping mechanisms among health workers.

CONCLUSION

Violence against healthcare in Syria has had profound and lasting impacts on the health workforce due to the relentless and intentional targeting of healthcare facilities. They not only face the challenges of providing care for a conflict-affected population but are also part of the community themselves. They also face ethical dilemmas in their work leading to moral distress and moral injury. Donors must support funding for psychosocial support for health workers in Syria and similar contexts; the focus must be on supporting and enhancing existing context-specific coping strategies.

Politicization of water, humanitarian response, and health in Syria as a contributor to the ongoing cholera outbreak

In September 2022, the Syrian Ministry of Health declared a cholera outbreak after a surge of acute watery diarrhea cases. Since then, cases have been reported across Syria, particularly in the northwest. This ongoing outbreak reflects a pattern of politicizing water, humanitarian response, and health throughout the country's protracted conflict. Interference with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure has been a key component of this politicization, impeding detection, prevention, case management, and control. Droughts and floods have exacerbated the WASH situation, as have the early-2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquakes. Humanitarian response following the earthquakes has also faced politicization, leading to increased risk of surges in cases of cholera and other waterborne diseases. This has all occurred in a conflict where healthcare has been weaponized, attacks on healthcare and related infrastructure are the norm, and syndromic surveillance and outbreak response have been influenced and restricted by politics. Cholera outbreaks are entirely preventable; what we see in Syria is cholera reflecting the myriad ways in which the right to health has been brought under fire in the Syrian conflict. The recent earthquakes are an additional assault which raise urgent concerns that a surge of cholera cases, particularly in northwest Syria, may now become uncontrolled.

Disruption to water supply and waterborne communicable diseases in northeast Syria: a spatiotemporal analysis

BACKGROUND

In Syria, disruption to water and sanitation systems, together with poor access to vaccination, forced displacement and overcrowding contribute to increases in waterborne diseases (WBDs). The aim of this study is to perform a spatiotemporal analysis to investigate potential associations between interruptions to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and WBDs in northeast Syria using data collected by the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) from Deir-ez-Zor, Raqqa, Hassakeh and parts of Aleppo governorates.

METHODS

We reviewed the literature databases of MEDLINE and Google Scholar and the updates of ReliefWeb to obtain information on acute disruptions and attacks against water infrastructure in northeast Syria between January 2015 and June 2021. The EWARN weekly trends of five syndromes representing waterborne diseases were plotted and analysed to identify time trends and the influence of these disruptions. To investigate a potential relationship, the Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare districts with and without disruptions. Time series analyses were carried out on major disruptions to analyse their effect on WBD incidence.

RESULTS

The literature review found several instances where water infrastructure was attacked or disrupted, suggesting that water has been deliberately targeted by both state and non-state actors in northeast Syria throughout the conflict. Over time, there was an overall upwards trend of other acute diarrhoea (OAD, p < 0.001), but downwards trends for acute jaundice syndrome, suspected typhoid fever and acute bloody diarrhoea. For the major disruption of the Alouk water plant, an interrupted time series analysis did not find a strong correlation between the disruption and changes in disease incidence in the weeks following the incident, but long-term increases in WBD were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

While no strong immediate correlation could be established between disruptions to WASH and WBDs in northeast Syria, further research is essential to explore the impact of conflict-associated damage to civil infrastructure including WASH. This is vital though challenging given confounding factors which affect both WASH and WBDs in contexts like northeast Syria. As such, research which includes exploration of mitigation after damage to WASH is essential to improve understanding of impacts on quantity and quality of WASH. More granular research which explores the origin of cases of WBDs and how such communities are affected by challenges to WASH is needed. One step towards research on this, is the implementation of adequate reporting mechanisms for real time tracking of the WASH attacks, damages, direct effects, and likely impact in conjunction with environmental and public health bodies and surveillance systems.

Syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections during protracted conflict: experiences from northern Syria 2016-2021

OBJECTIVE

Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations.

RESULTS

It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time.

CONCLUSION

Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria: modeling pandemic responses during political conflict

INTRODUCTION

Ten years of conflict has displaced more than half of Northwest Syria's (NWS) population and decimated the health system, water and sanitation, and public health infrastructure vital for infectious disease control. The first NWS COVID-19 case was declared on July 9, 2020, but impact estimations in this region are minimal. With the rollout of vaccination and emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 trajectory in NWS and the potential effects of vaccine coverage and hospital occupancy.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-method study, primarily including modeling projections of COVID-19 transmission scenarios with vaccination strategies using an age-structured, compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, supported by data from 20 semi-structured interviews with frontline health workers to help contextualize interpretation of modeling results.

RESULTS

Modeling suggested that existing low stringency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) minimally affected COVID-19 transmission. Maintaining existing NPIs after the Delta variant introduction is predicted to result in a second COVID-19 wave, overwhelming hospital capacity and resulting in a fourfold increased death toll. Simulations with up to 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 predict that a second wave is not preventable with current NPIs. However, 60% vaccination coverage by June 2022 combined with 50% coverage of mask-wearing and handwashing should reduce the number of hospital beds and ventilators needed below current capacity levels. In the worst-case scenario of a more transmissible and lethal variant emerging by January 2022, the third wave is predicted.

CONCLUSION

Total COVID-19 attributable deaths are expected to remain relatively low owing largely to a young population. Given the negative socioeconomic consequences of restrictive NPIs, such as border or school closures for an already deeply challenged population and their relative ineffectiveness in this context, policymakers and international partners should instead focus on increasing COVID-19 vaccination coverage as rapidly as possible and encouraging mask-wearing.

Weaponizing water as an instrument of war in Syria: Impact on diarrhoeal disease in Idlib and Aleppo governorates, 2011-2019

OBJECTIVES

Investigate the weaponization of water during the Syrian conflict and the correlation of attacks on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure in Idlib and Aleppo governorates with trends in waterborne diseases reported by Early Warning and Response surveillance systems.

METHODS

We reviewed literature and databases to obtain information on attacks on WASH in Aleppo and Idlib governorates between 2011 and 2019. We plotted weekly trends in waterborne diseases from two surveillance systems operational in Aleppo and Idlib governorates between 2015 and early 2020.

RESULTS

The literature review noted several attacks on water and related infrastructure in both governorates, suggesting that WASH infrastructure was weaponized by state and non-state actors. Most interference with WASH in the Aleppo governorate occurred before 2019 and in the Idlib governorate in the summer of 2020. Other acute diarrhea represented >90% of cases of diarrhea; children under 5 years contributed 50% of cases. There was substantial evidence (p < 0.001) of an overall upward trend in cases of diarrheal disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Though no direct correlation can be drawn between the weaponization of WASH and the burden of waterborne infections due to multiple confounders, this research introduces important concepts on attacks on WASH and their potential impacts on waterborne diseases.

The need for protecting and enhancing TB health policies and services for forcibly displaced and migrant populations during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Disruption of health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to derail progress being made in tuberculosis control efforts. Forcibly displaced people and migrant populations face particular vulnerabilities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which leaves them at further risk of developing TB. They inhabit environments where measures such as “physical distancing” are impossible to realize and where facilities like camps and informal temporary settlements can easily become sites of rapid disease transmission. In this viewpoint we utilize three case studies—from Peru, South Africa, and Syria—to illustrate the lived experience of forced migration and mobile populations, and the impact of COVID-19 on TB among these populations. We discuss the dual pandemics of TB and COVID-19 in the context of migration through a syndemic lens, to systematically address the upstream social, economic, structural and political factors that - in often deleterious dynamics - foster increased vulnerabilities and risk. Addressing TB, COVID-19 and migration from a syndemic perspective, not only draws systematic attention to comorbidity and the relevance of social and structural context, but also helps to find solutions: the true reality of syndemic interactions can only be fully understood by considering a particular population and bio- social context, and ensuring that they receive the comprehensive care that they need. It also provides avenues for strengthening and expanding the existing infrastructure for TB care to tackle both COVID-19 and TB in migrants and refugees in an integrated and synergistic manner.

Attacks against health care in Syria, 2015-16: results from a real-time reporting tool

BACKGROUND

Collecting credible data on violence against health services, health workers, and patients in war zones is a massive challenge, but crucial to understanding the extent to which international humanitarian law is being breached. We describe a new system used mainly in areas of Syria with a substantial presence of armed opposition groups since November, 2015, to detect and verify attacks on health-care services and describe their effect.

METHODS

All Turkey health cluster organisations with a physical presence in Syria, either through deployed and locally employed staff, were asked to participate in the Monitoring Violence against Health Care (MVH) alert network. The Turkey hub of the health cluster, a UN-activated humanitarian health coordination body, received alerts from health cluster partners via WhatsApp and an anonymised online data-entry tool. Field staff were asked to seek further information by interviewing victims and other witnesses when possible. The MVH data team triangulated alerts to identify individual events and distributed a preliminary flash update of key information (location, type of service, modality of attack, deaths, and casualties) to partners, WHO, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and donors. The team also received and entered alerts from several large non-health cluster organisations (known as external partners, who do their own information-gathering and verification processes before sharing their information). Each incident was then assessed in a stringent process of information-matching. Attacks were deemed to be verified if they were reported by a minimum of one health cluster partner and one external partner, and the majority of the key datapoints matched. Alerts that did not meet this standard were deemed to be unverified. Results were tabulated to describe attack occurrence and impact, disaggregated where possible by age, sex, and location.

FINDINGS

Between early November, 2015, and Dec 31 2016, 938 people were directly harmed in 402 incidents of violence against health care: 677 (72%) were wounded and 261 (28%) were killed. Most of the dead were adult males (68%), but the highest case fatality (39%) was seen in children aged younger than 5 years. 24% of attack victims were health workers. Around 44% of hospitals and 5% of all primary care clinics in mainly areas with a substantial presence of armed opposition groups experienced attacks. Aerial bombardment was the main form of attack. A third of health-care services were hit more than once. Services providing trauma care were attacked more than other services.

INTERPRETATION

The data system used in this study addressed double-counting, reduced the effect of potentially biased self-reports, and produced credible data from anonymous information. The MVH tool could be feasibly deployed in many conflict areas. Reliable data are essential to show how far warring parties have strayed from international law protecting health care in conflict and to effectively harness legal mechanisms to discourage future perpetrators.

FUNDING

None.