Ensemble model for predicting chronic non-communicable diseases using Latin square extraction and fuzzy-artificial neural networks from 2013 to 2019

Background

The presented study tracks the increase or decrease in the prevalence of seventeen different chronic non-communicable diseases in Serbia. This analysis considers factors such as region, age, and gender and is based on data from two national cross-sectional studies conducted in 2013 and 2019. The research aims to accurately identify the regions with the highest percentage of affected individuals, as well as their respective age and gender groups. The ultimate goal is to facilitate organized, free preventive screenings for these population categories within a very short time-frame in the future.

Materials and methods

The study analyzed two cross-sectional studies conducted between 2013 and 2019, using data obtained from the Institute of Public Health of Serbia. Both studies involved a total of 27801 participants. The study compared the performance of Decision Tree and Support Vector Regressor models with artificial neural network (ANN) models that employed two encoding functions. The new methodology for the ANN-L36 model was based on artificial neural networks constructed using a Latin square (L36) design, incorporating Taguchi's robust design optimization.

Results

The results of the analysis from three different models have shown that cardiovascular diseases are the most prevalent illnesses among the population in Serbia, with hypertension as the leading condition in all regions, particularly among individuals aged 64 to 75 years, and more prevalent among females. In 2019, there was a decrease in the percentage of the leading disease, hypertension, compared to 2013, with a decrease from 34.0% to 32.2%. The ANN-L36 model with Fuzzy encoding function demonstrated the highest precision, achieving the smallest relative error of 0.1%.

Conclusion

To date, no studies have been conducted at the national level in Serbia to comprehensively track and identify chronic diseases in the manner proposed by this study. The model presented in this research will be implemented in practice and is set to significantly contribute to the future healthcare framework in Serbia, shaping and advancing the approach towards addressing these conditions. Furthermore, experimental evidence has shown that Taguchi's optimization approach yields the best results for identifying various chronic non-communicable diseases.

Unveiling the Comorbidities of Chronic Diseases in Serbia Using ML Algorithms and Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps for Personalized Healthcare Frameworks

In previous years, significant attempts have been made to enhance computer-aided diagnosis and prediction applications. This paper presents the results obtained using different machine learning (ML) algorithms and a special type of a neural network map to uncover previously unknown comorbidities associated with chronic diseases, allowing for fast, accurate, and precise predictions. Furthermore, we are presenting a comparative study on different artificial intelligence (AI) tools like the Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM) neural network, random forest, and decision tree for predicting 17 different chronic non-communicable diseases such as asthma, chronic lung diseases, myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, arthrosis, lower back diseases, cervical spine diseases, diabetes mellitus, allergies, liver cirrhosis, urinary tract diseases, kidney diseases, depression, high cholesterol, and cancer. The research was developed as an observational cross-sectional study through the support of the European Union project, with the data collected from the largest Institute of Public Health "Dr. Milan Jovanovic Batut" in Serbia. The study found that hypertension is the most prevalent disease in Sumadija and western Serbia region, affecting 9.8% of the population, and it is particularly prominent in the age group of 65 to 74 years, with a prevalence rate of 33.2%. The use of Random Forest algorithms can also aid in identifying comorbidities associated with hypertension, with the highest number of comorbidities established as 11. These findings highlight the potential for ML algorithms to provide accurate and personalized diagnoses, identify risk factors and interventions, and ultimately improve patient outcomes while reducing healthcare costs. Moreover, they will be utilized to develop targeted public health interventions and policies for future healthcare frameworks to reduce the burden of chronic diseases in Serbia.