Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, part 2: Early assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

With access to cancer care services limited because of coronavirus disease 2019 control measures, cancer diagnosis and treatment have been delayed. The authors explored changes in the counts of US incident cases by cancer type, age, sex, race, and disease stage in 2020.

METHODS

Data were extracted from selected US population-based cancer registries for diagnosis years 2015-2020 using first-submission data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. After a quality assessment, the monthly numbers of newly diagnosed cancer cases were extracted for six cancer types: colorectal, female breast, lung, pancreas, prostate, and thyroid. The observed numbers of incident cancer cases in 2020 were compared with the estimated numbers by calculating observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios. The expected numbers of incident cases were extrapolated using Joinpoint trend models.

RESULTS

The authors report an O/E ratio <1.0 for major screening-eligible cancer sites, indicating fewer newly diagnosed cases than expected in 2020. The O/E ratios were lowest in April 2020. For every cancer site except pancreas, Asians/Pacific Islanders had the lowest O/E ratio of any race group. O/E ratios were lower for cases diagnosed at localized stages than for cases diagnosed at advanced stages.

CONCLUSIONS

The current analysis provides strong evidence for declines in cancer diagnoses, relative to the expected numbers, between March and May of 2020. The declines correlate with reductions in pathology reports and are greater for cases diagnosed at in situ and localized stage, triggering concerns about potential poor cancer outcomes in the coming years, especially in Asians/Pacific Islanders.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

To help control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), health care organizations suspended nonessential medical procedures, including preventive cancer screening, during early 2020. Many individuals canceled or postponed cancer screening, potentially delaying cancer diagnosis. This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of newly diagnosed cancer cases in 2020 using first-submission, population-based cancer registry database. The monthly numbers of newly diagnosed cancer cases in 2020 were compared with the expected numbers based on past trends for six cancer sites. April 2020 had the sharpest decrease in cases compared with previous years, most likely because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact on the Volume of Pathology Reports Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in SEER Cancer Registries

INTRODUCTION

Health care procedures including cancer screening and diagnosis were interrupted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The extent of this impact on cancer care in the United States is not fully understood. We investigated pathology report volume as a reflection of trends in oncology services pre-pandemic and during the pandemic.

METHODS

Electronic pathology reports were obtained from 11 U.S. central cancer registries from NCI's SEER Program. The reports were sorted by cancer site and document type using a validated algorithm. Joinpoint regression was used to model temporal trends from January 2018 to February 2020, project expected counts from March 2020 to February 2021 and calculate observed-to-expected ratios. Results were stratified by sex, age, cancer site, and report type.

RESULTS

During the first 3 months of the pandemic, pathology report volume decreased by 25.5% and 17.4% for biopsy and surgery reports, respectively. The 12-month O/E ratio (March 2020-February 2021) was lowest for women (O/E 0.90) and patients 65 years and older (O/E 0.91) and lower for cancers with screening (melanoma skin, O/E 0.86; breast, O/E 0.88; lung O/E 0.89, prostate, O/E 0.90; colorectal, O/E 0.91) when compared with all other cancers combined.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate a decrease in cancer diagnosis, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This decrease in the number of pathology reports may result in a stage shift causing a subsequent longer-term impact on survival patterns.

IMPACT

Investigation on the longer-term impact of the pandemic on pathology services is vital to understand if cancer care delivery levels continue to be affected.

Body fatness and mTOR pathway activation of breast cancer in the Women's Circle of Health Study

Energy imbalance has an important role in breast cancer prognosis. Hyperactive mechanistic Target of Rapamycin (mTOR) pathway is associated with breast tumor growth, but the extent to which body fatness is associated with mTOR pathway activities in breast cancer is unclear. We performed immunostaining for mTOR, phosphorylated (p)-mTOR, p-AKT, and p-p70S6K in tumor tissue from 590 women (464 African Americans/Blacks and 126 Whites) with newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer in the Women's Circle of Health Study. Anthropometric measures were taken by study staff, and body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Linear regressions were used to estimate percent differences in protein expression between categories of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist/hip ratio, fat mass, fat mass index, and percent body fat. We observed that BMI ≥ 35.0 vs. <25 kg/m2 was associated with 108.3% (95% CI = 16.9%-270.9%) and 101.8% (95% CI = 17.0%-248.8%) higher expression in p-mTOR and normalized p-mTOR, i.e., p-mTOR/mTOR, respectively. Quartiles 4 vs. 1 of waist/hip ratio was associated with 41.8% (95% CI = 5.81%-89.9%) higher mTOR expression. Similar associations were observed for the body fat measurements, particularly in patients with estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) tumors, but not in those with ER+ tumors, although the differences in associations were not significant. This tumor-based study found positive associations between body fatness and mTOR pathway activation, evident by a p-mTOR expression, in breast cancer. Our findings suggest that mTOR inhibition can be a treatment strategy to prevent the recurrence of these tumors in obese individuals.

A robust xenotransplantation model for acute myeloid leukemia

Xenotransplantation of human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in immunocompromised animals has been critical for defining leukemic stem cells. However, existing immunodeficient strains of mice have short life spans and low levels of AML cell engraftment, hindering long-term evaluation of primary human AML biology. A recent study suggested that NOD/LtSz-scid IL2Rgammac null (NSG) mice have enhanced AML cell engraftment, but this relied on technically challenging neonatal injections. Here, we performed extensive analysis of AML engraftment in adult NSG mice using tail vein injection. Of the 35 AML samples analyzed, 66% showed bone marrow engraftment over 0.1%. Further, 37% showed high levels of engraftment (>10%), with some as high as 95%. A 2-44-fold expansion of AML cells was often seen. Secondary and tertiary recipients showed consistent engraftment, with most showing further AML cell expansion. Engraftment did not correlate with French-American-British subtype or cytogenetic abnormalities. However, samples with FLT3 mutations showed a higher probability of engraftment than FLT3 wild type. Importantly, animals developed organomegaly and a wasting illness consistent with advanced leukemia. We conclude that the NSG xenotransplantation model is a robust model for human AML cell engraftment, which will allow better characterization of AML biology and testing of new therapies.

BCR/ABL induces chromosomal instability after genotoxic stress and alters the cell death threshold

Earlier reports have suggested that the BCR/ABL oncogene, associated with chronic myeloid leukemia, induces a mutator phenotype; however, it is unclear whether this leads to long-term changes in chromosomes and whether the phenotype is found in primary chronic myelogeneous leukemia (CML) cells. We have addressed both these issues. BCR/ABL-expressing cell lines show an increase in DNA breaks after treatment with etoposide as compared to control cells. However, although BCR/ABL-expressing cell lines have an equivalent cell survival, they have an increase in chromosomal translocations after DNA repair as compared to control cells. This demonstrates that BCR/ABL expression decreases the fidelity of DNA repair. To see whether this is true in primary CML samples, normal CD34+ progenitor cells and CML progenitor cells were treated with etoposide. CML progenitor cells have equivalent survival but have an increase in DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs). Spectral karyotyping demonstrates new chromosomal translocations in CML cells, but not normal progenitor cells, consistent with error-prone DNA repair. Taken together, these data demonstrate that BCR/ABL enhances the accumulation of DSBs and alters the apoptotic threshold in CML leading to error-prone DNA repair.

Nuclear export of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 Vpr is not required for virion packaging

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 Vpr protein is both packaged into virions and efficiently localized to the nucleus. In this report, we show that a significant fraction of Vpr also accumulates in the cytoplasm of virus-producing cells. Although Vpr shuttles between the nucleus and the cytoplasm, studies with an export-deficient Vpr mutant reveal that nuclear export is not required for virion incorporation.