Spatial analysis of HIV detection rates among Brazilian young men, 2007-2021

The main goal of this study was to spatially analyze the HIV epidemic scenario in young men in Brazil, 2007-2021. We used secondary data obtained from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases. Individuals aged 15-29 years with permanent residence in Brazil who were diagnosed with HIV during the study period were included in the analysis. Municipality HIV age-adjusted detection rates were analyzed through spatial distribution, autocorrelation, and spatiotemporal risk analyses. During the study period, 108,392 HIV cases were reported in young Brazilian men. The HIV epidemic increased territorially in the northern, northeastern, midwestern, and southeastern regions but decreased in the southern region. Although the number of clusters comprising municipalities with high HIV detection rates (hotspots) decreased, new ones appeared, expanded, or stopped changing size. Hotspots and spatio-temporal risk zones (spatial areas with increased HIV detection in a specific period) comprised economically developed municipalities with high demographic density surrounded by less developed municipalities. The period of the spatiotemporal risk zones was between 2008 and 2021. Our study showed that HIV detection rates continue to increase among young Brazilian men, and health authorities should reinforce efforts mainly in capitals and surrounded municipalities in the north, northeast, southeast, and midwest regions.