Motion compensated cone-beam CT reconstruction using ana priorimotion model from CT simulation: a pilot study

Objective. To combat the motion artifacts present in traditional 4D-CBCT reconstruction, an iterative technique known as the motion-compensated simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (MC-SART) was previously developed. MC-SART employs a 4D-CBCT reconstruction to obtain an initial model, which suffers from a lack of sufficient projections in each bin. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of introducing a motion model acquired during CT simulation to MC-SART, coined model-based CBCT (MB-CBCT).Approach. For each of 5 patients, we acquired 5DCTs during simulation and pre-treatment CBCTs with a simultaneous breathing surrogate. We cross-calibrated the 5DCT and CBCT breathing waveforms by matching the diaphragms and employed the 5DCT motion model parameters for MC-SART. We introduced the Amplitude Reassignment Motion Modeling technique, which measures the ability of the model to control diaphragm sharpness by reassigning projection amplitudes with varying resolution. We evaluated the sharpness of tumors and compared them between MB-CBCT and 4D-CBCT. We quantified sharpness by fitting an error function across anatomical boundaries. Furthermore, we compared our MB-CBCT approach to the traditional MC-SART approach. We evaluated MB-CBCT's robustness over time by reconstructing multiple fractions for each patient and measuring consistency in tumor centroid locations between 4D-CBCT and MB-CBCT.Main results. We found that the diaphragm sharpness rose consistently with increasing amplitude resolution for 4/5 patients. We observed consistently high image quality across multiple fractions, and observed stable tumor centroids with an average 0.74 ± 0.31 mm difference between the 4D-CBCT and MB-CBCT. Overall, vast improvements over 3D-CBCT and 4D-CBCT were demonstrated by our MB-CBCT technique in terms of both diaphragm sharpness and overall image quality.Significance. This work is an important extension of the MC-SART technique. We demonstrated the ability ofa priori5DCT models to provide motion compensation for CBCT reconstruction. We showed improvements in image quality over both 4D-CBCT and the traditional MC-SART approach.

Efforts needed for preventing breast and colorectal cancer through changes in dietary patterns

BACKGROUND

Prospective cohort studies on diet and cancer report risk associations as hazard ratios. But hazard ratios do not inform on the number of people who need to alter their dietary behaviours for preventing cancer. The objective of this study is to estimate the number of people that need to alter their diet for preventing one additional case of female breast or colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Based on the largest prospective studies done in the USA and in Europe, we computed the number of subjects who need to alter their diet.

RESULTS

For preventing one case of breast cancer, European women should increase their fruit consumption by 100 g/day during 33 000 person-years, and US women by 60 g/day during 10 600 person-years. For vegetables, European women should increase their consumption by 160 g/day during 26 900 person-years and US women by 100 g/day during 19 000 person-years. For preventing one case of colorectal cancer, European subjects should decrease their red meat consumption by 20 g/day during 26 100 person-years, and US subjects by 30 g/day during 8170 person-years. For processed meat, European subjects should decrease their consumption by 20 g/day during 17 400 person-years, and US subjects by 10 g/day during 7940 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Large number of subjects would need to alter their intake of fruits, vegetables, red and processed meat during many years in order to prevent one additional breast or colorectal cancer.

Dataset of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) risk associated with serum polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) by age at diagnosis and histologic types

In a population-based case control study of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT), we reported a strong positive association between serum levels of Wolff's Group 1 (potentially estrogenic) polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) and risk of TGCT, and the observed associations were similar for both seminoma and non-seminoma. While the observed specific associations between TGCT and Wolff's Group 1 PCBs cannot be easily explained by bias or confounding, a question can still be asked, that is, could the relationship between PCBs and TGCT differ by age at diagnosis? PCBs tend to bioaccumulate, with more heavily chlorinated PCB congeners tending to have longer half-lives. Half-lives of PCB congeners were reported ranging from 4.6 years for PCB-28 to 41.0 years for PCB-156. The half-life for the heavy PCB congeners (17.8 years) was found to be approximately twice that for the light PCBs (9.6 years) in early studies. Therefore, the same PCB concentration measured in a 20-year-old vs. a 55-year-old is unlikely to represent the same lifetime PCB exposure or type of PCB exposure. In this analysis, we stratified the data by median age of diagnosis of TGCT and further stratified by histologic type of TGCT (seminoma vs non-seminoma) to explore if the risk of TGCT associated with PCB exposures differs by age.

Serum polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) levels and risk of testicular germ cell tumors: A population-based case-control study in Connecticut and Massachusetts

The incidence rate of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) has continuously increased in Western countries over the last several decades. Some epidemiologic studies have reported that the endocrine disrupting polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in serum may be associated with TGCT risk, but the evidence is inconsistent. Our goal was to investigate whether serum levels of PCBs are associated with the increase of TGCT risk. We conducted a population-based case-control study of 308 TGCT cases and 323 controls, all residents of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Serum levels of 56 PCBs congeners were measured using gas chromatography and unconditional logistic regression model was used to evaluate the risk of TGCT associated with total PCBs exposure, groups of PCBs categorized by Wolff's functional groups, and individual PCB congeners. The results showed that there was no association between total serum levels of PCBs and risk of TGCT overall (quartile 4 (Q4) vs. quartile 1 (Q1) odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (C.I.) = 1.0 (0.6-1.9), ρ trend = 0.9). However, strong positive association was observed between total serum levels of Wolff's Group 1 (potentially estrogenic) PCBs and risk of overall TGCT (Q4 vs. Q1 OR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.3-4.7, ρ trend <0.05) as well as seminoma and non-seminoma subtypes. Wolff's Group 1 PCB congeners that showed an increased risk of TGCT included: 25, 44, 49, 52, 70, 101, 174, and 201/177. Considering the continuing increase of TGCT, these associations should be replicated in different populations with larger sample size.

The Profile of Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) research in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Analyzing the NCD burden, research outputs and international research collaboration

Objectives

Despite the rising risk factor exposure and non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality across the Middle East and the North African (MENA) region, public health policy responses have been slow and appear discordant with the social, economic and political circumstances in each country. Good health policy and outcomes are intimately linked to a research-active culture, particularly in NCD. In this study we present the results of a comprehensive analysis of NCD research with particular a focus on cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease in 10 key countries that represent a spectrum across MENA between 1991 and 2018.

Methods

The study uses a well validated bibliometric approach to undertake a quantitative analysis of research output in the ten leading countries in biomedical research in the MENA region on the basis of articles and reviews in the Web of Science database. We used filters for each of the three NCDs and biomedical research to identify relevant papers in the WoS. The countries selected for the analyses were based on the volume of research outputs during the period of analysis and stability, included Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

Results

A total of 495,108 biomedical papers were found in 12,341 journals for the ten MENA countries (here we consider Turkey in the context of MENA). For all three NCDs, Turkey's output is consistently the highest. Iran has had considerable growth in research output to occupy second place across all three NCDs. It appears that, relative to their wealth (measured by GDP), some MENA countries, particularly Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, are substantially under-investing in biomedical research. In terms of investment on particular NCDs, we note the relatively greater commitment on cancer research compared with diabetes or cardiovascular disease in most MENA countries, despite cardiovascular disease causing the greatest health-related burden. When considering the citation impact of research outputs, there have been marked rises in citation scores in Qatar, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates and Oman. However, Turkey, which has the largest biomedical research output in the Middle East has the lowest citation scores overall. The level of intra-regional collaboration in NCD research is highly variable. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the dominant research collaborators across the MENA region. However, Turkey and Iran, which are amongst the leading research-active countries in the area, show little evidence of collaboration. With respect to international collaboration, the United States and United Kingdom are the dominant research partners across the region followed by Germany and France.

Conclusion

The increase in research activity in NCDs across the MENA region countries during the time period of analysis may signal both an increasing focus on NCDs which reflects general global trends, and greater investment in research in some countries. However, there are several risks to the sustainability of these improvements that have been identified in particular countries within the region. For example, a lack of suitably trained researchers, low political commitment and poor financial support, and minimal international collaboration which is essential for wider global impact.

The long-term rapid increase in incidence of adenocarcinoma of the kidney in the USA, especially among younger ages

BACKGROUND

We previously observed a rapid increase in the incidence of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in men and women between 1935 and 1989 in the USA, using data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. This increase appeared to be largely explained by a positive cohort effect, but no population-based study has been conducted to comprehensively examine age-period-cohort effects by histologic types for the past decade.

METHODS

We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of the two major kidney-cancer subtypes RCC and renal urothelial carcinoma, and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 114 138 incident cases of kidney cancer reported between 1992 and 2014 to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted incidence rates of RCC have been increasing consistently in the USA among both men and women (from 12.18/100 000 in 1992-1994 to 18.35/100 000 in 2010-2014 among men; from 5.77/100 000 in 1992-1994 to 8.63/100 000 in 2010-2014 among women). Incidence rates generally increased in successive birth cohorts, with a continuing increase in rates among the younger age groups (ages 0-54 years) in both men and women and among both Whites and Blacks. These observations were confirmed by age-period-cohort modelling, which suggested an increasing birth-cohort trend for RCC beginning with 1955 birth cohorts, regardless of the assumed value for the period effect for both men and women and for Whites and Blacks.

CONCLUSIONS

Known risk factors for kidney cancer may not fully account for the observed increasing rates or the birth-cohort pattern for RCC, prompting the need for additional etiologic hypotheses (such as environmental exposures) to investigate these descriptive patterns.

Alignment with Indices of A Care Pathway Is Associated with Improved Survival: An Observational Population-based Study in Colon Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

Causes of variations in outcomes from cancer care in developed countries are often unclear. Australia has developed health system pathways describing consensus standards of optimal cancer care across the phases of prevention through to follow-up or end-of-life. These Optimal Care Pathways (OCP) were introduced from 2013 to 14. We investigated whether care consistent with the OCP improved outcomes for colon cancer patients.

METHODS

Colon patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2014 were identified from the Australian State of Victoria Cancer Registry (VCR) and cases linked with State and Federal health datasets. Surrogate variables describe OCP alignment in our cohort, across three phases of the pathway; prevention, diagnosis and initial treatment and end-of-life. We assessed the impact of alignment on (1) stage of disease at diagnosis and (2) overall survival.

FINDINGS

Alignment with the prevention phase of the OCP occurred for 88% of 13,539 individuals and was associated with lower disease stage at diagnosis (OR = 0.33, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.42), improved crude three-year survival (69.2% versus 62.2%; p < 0.001) and reduced likelihood of emergency surgery (17.7% versus 25.6%, p < 0.001). For patients treated first with surgery (n = 10,807), care aligned with the diagnostic and treatment phase indicators (44% of patients) was associated with a survival benefit (risk-adjusted HR_{non-aligned vs aligned} = 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.35), better perioperative outcomes and higher alignment with follow-up and end-of-life care. The survival benefit persists adjusting for potential confounding factors, including age, sex, disease stage and comorbidity.Interpretation.This population-based study shows that care aligned to a pathway based on best principles of cancer care is associated with improved outcomes for patients with colon cancer.

FUNDING

None.

Cancer in Africa: the way forward

While progress in oncology has been remarkable in recent decades, not every cancer patient is benefitting from the advances made in treating their disease. The contrast in diagnosis, treatment and its outcome between high-resource and low-resource countries is dramatic. Africa presents an enormous challenge with population growth and life expectancy increasing in many countries as the toll of AIDS and other communicable diseases declines. However, there has been little investment in capacity of any sort to deal with the current cancer problem, never mind the rapid increase in incidence which is underway. This is a critical area for investment and not only of a purely financial nature. It is bad to have cancer and worse to have cancer if you are poor. The gap between rich and poor, highly educated and less educated and the North–South divide is substantial and continuing to grow. Radical solutions are urgently needed: the status quo is not an appropriate response to the current situation. Recognising that no single government or source of philanthropy has the means to solve this problem, new models are needed to cope with and improve this situation.

Novel |V_{us}| Determination Using Inclusive Strange τ Decay and Lattice Hadronic Vacuum Polarization Functions

We propose and apply a new approach to determining |V_{us}| using dispersion relations with weight functions having poles at Euclidean (spacelike) momentum which relate strange hadronic τ decay distributions to hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) functions obtained from lattice quantum chromodynamics. We show examples where spectral integral contributions from the region where experimental data have large errors or do not exist are strongly suppressed but accurate determinations of the relevant lattice HVP combinations remain possible. The resulting |V_{us}| agrees well with determinations from K physics and three-family Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa unitarity. Advantages of this new approach over the conventional hadronic τ decay determination employing flavor-breaking sum rules are also discussed.

Some Further Consideration on the Role of Oral Contraceptives in Breast Carcinogenesis

Available evidence concerning oral contraceptives and their potential interaction with reproductive history on breast cancer risk Is reviewed. The relative risks in 15 out of 15 studies were above unity among younger women (i.e., below age 35 and perhaps up to 45) for long-term oral contraceptive use, although apparent heterogeneities emerged in the risk estimates. The overall evidence is reassuring in subsequent age groups, whereas the modifying effects or interactions between oral contraceptives, reproductive factors and breast cancer risk are still largely undefined. Thus we suggest that, besides chance and bias, the apparent discrepancies between various studies should be considered within the framework of the complex time- and age-effects of hormone-related risk factors on breast carcinogenesis.

Projections to the end of the Century of Mortality from Major Cancer Sites in Italy

We used an age-period-cohort model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters, fitted to the mortality data for the period 1955-84, to project rates in mortality from all cancers and 11 major cancer sites in Italy for the period 1985-1999. For all neoplasms considered, using estimated age and cohort values, two models were fitted, one based on constant period effects, and one on a linear regression on the logarithm of the six calendar periods. Furthermore, « a priori » defined coefficients based on epidemiologic inferences were given to period values for tobacco-related neoplasms (below unity for males, above unity for females, on the basis of recent trends in tobacco prevalence in the two sexes), for breast and ovarian cancer (in relation to the potentially different effect of oral contraceptives, other female hormones, reproductive factors and treatment on these neoplasms), and for total cancer mortality. This produced a range of potential estimates, which were reasonably similar for neoplasms (such as stomach, intestines, breast, ovary or prostate) for which no major change in slope of the cohort effects was evident, but wider (i.e., between 188 and 264/100,000 males aged 40 to 79 in 1995-99) for lung or other tobacco-related cancers. Although this range of variation is far from negligible, the estimated values indicate that lung cancer among Italian males aged 40 to 79, even under the more optimistic assumption, will probably be higher at the end of the century than in the early 1980′s, and that lung cancer alone will account for 35 to 42% of all cancer deaths in males between 40 and 79 years. Though any prediction has, by definition, inherent difficulties and uncertainties, cancer mortality in the near future will be strongly influenced by age and cohort effects already known, and hence its projections may offer some indication of public health relevance.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Hodgkin's Disease in Italy

Death certification data on Hodgkin's disease in Italy over the period 1955-84 were studied in terms of age-standardized and age-specific national trends, and of geographical variation in mortality. There were substantial declines in death rates from the early 1970's onward, which can be largely attributed to therapeutic improvements. These led to avoidance of about 350 deaths, with a total 950 reported, which is probably the major absolute therapeutic advance identified for any cancer site. The declines started earlier in childhood and young adult age, and were restricted to population below age 60. The age distribution of the disease was different in the two sexes, since the age curve for males showed steady rises up to age 75, whereas that for females was clearly bimodal, with a peak around age 30, and another at oldest age. This divergent pattern is consistent with different exposure to (infectious) agent(s) in children of the two sexes, but also to occupational exposures potentially related to the risk of the disease. Examination of rates in various geographical areas showed generally higher rates in the North, and a few provinces with exceedingly high mortality in the central part of Northern Italy, particularly in a chiefly rural province (Mantua). This excess mortality (and, more in general, the observation that rates for Northern Italy are higher than in any other area of the EEC) could not be explained by obvious diagnostic or classification problems, were evident in both sexes, appeared to be consistent over the last decade and are reflected in available Italian cancer registration data.

An Estimate of Prostate Cancer Prevalence in Italy

Estimates of the total number of men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in Italy range from 55,000 to 135,000. This wide range of variation is largely due to uncertainties on the number of protein-specific antigen-detected, asymptomatic cases. The number of clinically detected cases, including cases with advanced disease, is less subject to uncertainty, with reasonable estimates ranging from 45,000 to 60,000.

Testing algorithms for critical slowing down

We present the preliminary tests on two modifications of the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. Both algorithms are designed to travel much farther in the Hamiltonian phase space for each trajectory and reduce the autocorrelations among physical observables thus tackling the critical slowing down towards the continuum limit. We present a comparison of costs of the new algorithms with the standard HMC evolution for pure gauge fields, studying the autocorrelation times for various quantities including the topological charge.

|Vus| determination from inclusive strange tau decay and lattice HVP

We propose and apply a novel approach to determining |Vus| which uses inclusive strange hadronic tau decay data and hadronic vacuum polarization functions (HVPs) computed on the lattice. The experimental and lattice data are related through dispersion relations which employ a class of weight functions having poles at space-like momentum. Implementing this approach using lattice data generated by the RBC/UKQCD collaboration, we show examples of weight functions which strongly suppress spectral integral contributions from the region where experimental data either have large uncertainties or do not exist while at the same time allowing accurate determinations of relevant lattice HVPs. Our result for |Vus| is in good agreement with determinations from K physics and 3-family CKM unitarity. The advantages of the new approach over the conventional sum rule analysis will be discussed.

BSM Kaon Mixing at the Physical Point

We present a progress update on the RBC-UKQCD calculation of beyond the standard model (BSM) kaon mixing matrix elements at the physical point. Simulations are performed using 2+1 flavour domain wall lattice QCD with the Iwasaki gauge action at 3 lattice spacings and with pion masses ranging from 430 MeV to the physical pion mass.

Epidemiology of Mouth Cancer in 1989: A Review

The oral cavity and pharynx combined is the sixth commonest site of cancer in both sexes. In many countries the mortality rate is increasing among younger men born since approximately 1910-1920. A causal role in the aetiology of mouth cancer has been established for tobacco use, both smoking and chewing, separately and in conjunction with betel-quid chewing; with alcohol consumption and, less certainly, with other factors such as poor oral hygiene, nutritional factors and certain occupational exposures. In Western countries, there is convincing evidence that a large attributable risk can be ascribed to the joint habits of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. In Asian societies, a high attributable risk can be ascribed to cigarette smoking and betel chewing. Mouth cancer is at the same time an important form of cancer, and one for which practical prospects for prevention already exist. Against this background of a continually increasing trend among younger persons, it seems essential to engage upon programmes of prevention, including increasing awareness for early detection, against mouth cancer at the present time.

Oral Complaints Related to Climacteric Symptoms in Oöphorectomized Women

Numerous oral complaints have been attributed to the female climacteric including altered taste, a burning sensation and xerostomia. However, the data relating these symptoms to the climacteric require elucidation as there have been no adequately controlled studies. In the present investigation, a group of 145 oöphorectomized women were followed for one year. Approximately half were treated with oestrogen replacement and the remainder with a placebo. The results indicate that the hormone had no direct effect upon the oral symptoms but that there was a general increase in somatic complaints which appeared to be related to the degree of neurosis experienced. This is turn can be attributed to vasomotor changes which are under the control of oestrogen.

Intelligence and global health: assessing the role of open source and social media intelligence analysis in infectious disease outbreaks

Purpose

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) from the clandestine intelligence sector are being increasingly employed in infectious disease outbreaks. The purpose of this article is to explore how such tools might be employed in the detection, reporting, and control of outbreaks designated as a 'threat' by the global community. It is also intended to analyse previous use of such tools during the Ebola and SARS epidemics and to discuss key questions regarding the ethics and legality of initiatives that further blur the military and humanitarian spaces.

Methods

We undertake qualitative analysis of current discussions on OSINT and SIGINT and their intersection with global health. We also review current literature and describe the debates. We built on quantitative and qualitative research done into current health collection capabilities.

Results

This article presents an argument for the use of OSINT in the detection of infectious disease outbreaks and how this might occur.

Conclusion

We conclude that there is a place for OSINT and SIGINT in the detection and reporting of outbreaks. However, such tools are not sufficient on their own and must be corroborated for the intelligence to be relevant and actionable. Finally, we conclude that further discussion on key ethical issues needs to take place before such research can continue. In particular, this involves questions of jurisdiction, data ownership, and ethical considerations.

Incretin-Based Therapies and the Short-term Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: Results From Two Retrospective Cohort Studies

OBJECTIVE

Concerns have been raised about a possible increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with incretin-based therapies. We examined the risk of pancreatic cancer among patients with diabetes prescribed incretin drugs.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

With the use of public health insurance databases of Belgium and the Lombardy Region, Italy, we created two retrospective cohorts that included adult patients who were first prescribed an incretin drug or another noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) from 1 July 2008 to 31 December 2013 in Belgium and from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 in the Lombardy Region. The risk of pancreatic cancer was evaluated by multivariate-adjusted Cox models that included time-dependent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) from Belgium and Italy were pooled by using fixed-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

The cohorts included 525,733 patients with diabetes treated with NIADs and 33,292 with incretin drugs. Results in both cohorts were similar. Eighty-five and 1,589 subjects who developed pancreatic cancer were registered among the incretin and NIAD new users, respectively, which represented an aHR of pancreatic cancer of 2.14 (95% CI 1.71-2.67) among those prescribed an incretin compared with an NIAD. The aHR with a drug use lag exposure of 6 months was 1.69 (1.24-2.32). The aHR decreased from 3.35 (2.32-4.84) in the first 3 months after the first incretin prescription to 2.12 (1.22-3.66) in months 3-5.9, 1.95 (1.20-3.16) in months 6-11.9, and 1.69 (1.12-2.55) after 12 months. Among those prescribed an NIAD, pancreatic cancer occurred mostly within the year after the first prescription. The risk of pancreatic cancer among patients subsequently prescribed insulin was 6.89 (6.05-7.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The recent prescription of incretin therapy is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer. The reason for such an increase is likely the consequence of an occult pancreatic cancer that provokes or aggravates diabetes. Studies are warranted for assessing the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with long-term use of incretin drugs.

Isospin Breaking Corrections to the HVP with Domain Wall Fermions

We present results for the QED and strong isospin breaking corrections to the hadronic vacuum polarization using Nf = 2 + 1 Domain Wall fermions. QED is included in an electro-quenched setup using two different methods, a stochastic and a perturbative approach. Results and statistical errors from both methods are directly compared with each other.

Numerical investigation of finite-volume effects for the HVP

It is important to correct for finite-volume (FV) effects in the presence of QED, since these effects are typically large due to the long range of the electromagnetic interaction. We recently made the first lattice calculation of electromagnetic corrections to the hadronic vacuum polarisation (HVP). For the HVP, an analytical derivation of FV corrections involves a two-loop calculation which has not yet been carried out. We instead calculate the universal FV corrections numerically, using lattice scalar QED as an effective theory. We show that this method gives agreement with known analytical results for scalar mass FV effects, before applying it to calculate FV corrections for the HVP. This method for numerical calculation of FV effects is also widely applicable to quantities beyond the HVP.

Physical activity and change in fasting glucose and HbA1c: a quantitative meta-analysis of randomized trials

AIMS

A systematic review was conducted of randomized trials which evaluated the impact of physical activity on the change in fasting glucose and HbA1c.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted in PubMed until December 2015. Studies reporting glucose or HbA1c at baseline and at the end of study were included, and the change and its variance were estimated from studies with complete data. Mixed-effect random models were used to estimate the change of fasting glucose (mg/dl) and HbA1c (%) per additional minutes of physical activity per week.

RESULTS

A total of 125 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Based on 105 studies, an increase of 100 min in physical activity per week was associated with an average change of -2.75 mg/dl of fasting glucose (95% CI -3.96; -1.55), although there was a high degree of heterogeneity (83.5%). When restricting the analysis on type 2 diabetes and prediabetes subjects (56 studies), the average change in fasting glucose was -4.71 mg/dl (95% CI -7.42; -2.01). For HbA1c, among 76 studies included, an increase of 100 min in physical activity per week was associated with an average change of -0.14% of HbA1c (95% CI -0.18; -0.09) with heterogeneity (73%). A large degree of publication bias was identified (Egger test p < 0.001). When restricting the analysis on type 2 diabetes and prediabetes subjects (60 studies), the average change in HbA1c was -0.16% (95% CI -0.21; -0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates that moderate increases in physical activity are associated with significant reductions in both fasting glucose and HbA1c.

Assessment of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and weight change: a prospective cohort study

Background

In prospective studies, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) have been associated with weight increase. However, most prospective studies examine changes in body weight over time according to amounts of SSB intake at baseline, generally without considering changes over time in SSB, energy intake and physical activity. The objective of the present study was to examine how SSB intakes influence changes in weight, according to the way SSB intakes are analysed.

Methods

For a prospective cohort study with two nutritional assessments in time, 46 Flemish municipalities were selected by clustered random sampling. Within these municipalities, a random sample of men and women between 18 and 75 years of age was selected and invited to participate. In total, 562 middle-aged Belgian adults were tested in 2002 and 2012 for the same anthropometric, lifestyle, nutrition and physical activity parameters. The main outcome measured were weight changes from 2002 to 2012 were analysed according to various ways to parametrise SSB intakes in 2002 and changes in SSB, energy intake, and physical activity from 2002 to 2012.

Results

In a multivariable model including age, sex, the best predictors of weight changes were the weight at baseline (P < 0.001), then the change in energy intake (p = 0.068). No association was found with SSB intake at baseline (P = 0.267) and the change in SSB intake (P = 0.130).

Conclusions

Results of prospective studies on SSB intake and body weight depend much on the way SSB intakes are analysed, and on the inclusion of changes in energy intake and physical activity in analyses.

Initiation and shift of antidiabetic therapy and pancreatic cancer

4126

Background: Concerns have been raised on the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with specific anti-diabetic therapies. We have examined the risk of pancreatic cancer among patients with diabetes prescribed with an oral anti-diabetic drug (OAD) or an incretin drug (DPP4i and GLP-1 RA) or insulin. Methods: The public health insurance databases of Belgium and of Lombardy Region, Italy include nearly 100% of the population living in these countries. We created within these databases two cohorts that included adult patients who were first prescribed an incretin drug or another noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) during 01/07/2008-31/12/2013 in Belgium and during 01/01/2008-31/12/2012 in Lombardy Region. The risk of pancreatic cancer after prescription of an anti-diabetic drug was evaluated using multivariate adjusted Cox models including time-dependent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) from Belgium and Italy were pooled using fixed effects meta-analyses. Results: Results in both cohorts were similar. Among those patients prescribed an OAD, 45% of pancreatic cancers occurred within the 6 months following first prescription, 20% in months 7 to 12 after first prescription and proportions decreased progressively during follow-up. The aHR of pancreatic cancer among subjects prescribed an incretin compared to an OAD was 2.14 [95% CI, 1.71 to 2.67]. The aHR decreased from 3.35 [CI, 2.32 to 4.84] in the first 3 months after first incretin prescription, 2.12 [CI, 1.22 to 3.66] in months 3 to 5.9, 1.95 [CI, 1.20 to 3.16] in months 6 to 11.9, to 1.69 [CI, 1.12 to 2.55] after 12 months. The risk of pancreatic cancer among subjects who were subsequently prescribed insulin was 6.89 [CI, 6.05 to 7.85]. The time from OAD prescription to a shift to incretins or to insulin was significantly lower in patients who were subsequently diagnosed with a pancreatic cancer. Conclusions: The increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with anti-diabetic therapies could be the consequence of an occult pancreatic cancer that provokes diabetes (reverse causation bias). The search for an occult pancreatic cancer in subjects with newly diagnosed diabetes or patients shifting to more potent anti-diabetic therapy may lead to earlier detection of this cancer.

Changing global policy to deliver safe, equitable, and affordable care for women's cancers

Breast and cervical cancer are major threats to the health of women globally, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Radical progress to close the global cancer divide for women requires not only evidence-based policy making, but also broad multisectoral collaboration that capitalises on recent progress in the associated domains of women's health and innovative public health approaches to cancer care and control. Such multisectoral collaboration can serve to build health systems for cancer, and more broadly for primary care, surgery, and pathology. This Series paper explores the global health and public policy landscapes that intersect with women's health and global cancer control, with new approaches to bringing policy to action. Cancer is a major global social and political priority, and women's cancers are not only a tractable socioeconomic policy target in themselves, but also an important Trojan horse to drive improved cancer control and care.

Abstract P5-08-04: Overview of breast cancer mortality trends in the world

Background: Since the 1990s, important changes in the detection and management of breast cancer have taken place. We analysed breast cancer mortality trends from 1989 to 2012 in 47 countries with data available for most years since 1987.

Methods: Breast cancer deaths and populations were extracted from the WHO mortality database. Age-standardised mortality rates were computed using the World standard population over the period 1987-2012 for women of all ages and for women aged &lt;50 years, 50-69 years and ≥70 years. Percent changes in mortality trends were assessed over the period 1989-2012. Mortality rates are reported per 100,000 women. We constituted groups of comparable countries that are located in same region, have similar economic status and same mortality rates in 1987-89.

Results: Annual breast cancer mortality rates in 1987-89 ranged from 2.6 in South Korea to 29.3 in England and Wales (median rate of 18.5). In 2010-12, mortality rates ranged from 5.1 in South Korea to 18.4 in Denmark (median rate of 14.8). From 1989 to 2012 (23 years), declines in breast cancer mortality were observed in 39 out of 47 countries. Mortality changes ranged from a -45% reduction in England and Wales to a 79% increase in South Korea (median change of -28%). Mortality declines were more pronounced in countries with high mortality in 1987-89. In groups of comparable countries, sharp contrasts in mortality changes were observed, for instance -21% reduction in France against -37% reduction in Spain, or 5% increase in Latvia against -17% reduction in Slovakia. Although the mortality rates in 1987-89 were 20.9 in Australia and 27.4 in New Zealand, a mortality reduction of -38% was observed in both countries. Of note, in these groups of comparable countries, reductions in mortality were the same in countries that introduced mass breast screening around 1990 than in countries where breast screening was introduced in 2005 or after. Regarding age groups, the largest declines in mortality were observed in women less than 50 in all the countries except New Zealand and Hong Kong, and only three countries had an increased mortality in this age group (Brazil, Colombia, South Korea). Mortality changes in young women ranged from -59% reduction in Slovenia to 32% increase in South Korea (median change of -45%). Mortality changes in young women were not different in countries where breast screening before age 50 has always been uncommon (e.g., Norway, England and Wales) or is widespread since the late 1980's (e.g., the USA, Sweden). In women aged 50-69 years, mortality changes ranged from -49% reduction in England and Wales to 111% increase in South Korea (median change of -27%). In women aged 70 years or more, mortality changes ranged from a -33% reduction in the Netherlands to a 151% increase in South Korea (median of -11%).

Conclusions: Huge disparities in changes in breast cancer mortality rates are observed around the World, and across age groups. Downward trends in breast cancer mortality prevail in most of Europe, North America, Oceania, and in few countries of Latin America and Asia. The situation in high income Asian countries is not easy to interpret because access to efficient therapies is commonplace. There seems to be no discernible influence of screening on mortality trends.

Citation Format: Pizot C, Boniol M, Boyle P, Autier P. Overview of breast cancer mortality trends in the world [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2016 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2016 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-08-04.

An assessment of the barriers to accessing the Basic Package of Health Services (BPHS) in Afghanistan: was the BPHS a success?

Afghanistan is one of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries in the world. It has experienced almost uninterrupted conflict for the last thirty years, with the present conflict now lasting over a decade. With no history of a functioning healthcare system, the creation of the Basic Package of Health Services (BPHS) in 2003 was a response to Afghanistan's dire health needs following decades of war. Its objective was to provide a bare minimum of essential health services, which could be scaled up rapidly through contracting mechanisms with Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). The central thesis of this article is that, despite the good intentions of the BPHS, not enough has been done to overcome the barriers to accessing its services. This analysis, enabled through a review of the existing literature, identifies and categorises these barriers into the three access dimensions of: acceptability, affordability and availability. As each of these is explored individually, analysis will show the extent to which these barriers to access are a critical issue, consider the underlying reasons for their existence and evaluate the efforts to overcome these barriers. Understanding these barriers and the policies that have been implemented to address them is critical to the future of health system strengthening in Afghanistan.

Eradicating polio in Pakistan: an analysis of the challenges and solutions to this security and health issue

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988 the global incidence of poliomyelitis has fallen by nearly 99 %. From a situation where wild type poliovirus was endemic in 125 countries across five continents, transmission is now limited to regions of just three countries – Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria. A sharp increase in Pakistan’s poliomyelitis cases in 2014 prompted the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee to declare the situation a ‘public health emergency of international concern’. Global polio eradication hinges on Pakistan’s ability to address the religious, political and socioeconomic barriers to immunisation; including discrepancies in vaccine coverage, a poor health infrastructure, and conflict in polio-endemic regions of the country. This analysis provides an overview of the GPEI, focusing on the historical and contemporary challenges facing Pakistan’s polio eradication programme and the impact of conflict and insecurity, and sheds light on strategies to combat vaccine hesitancy, engage local communities and build on recent progress towards polio eradication in Pakistan.

Maps and atlases of cancer mortality: a review of a useful tool to trigger new questions

In this review we illustrate our view on the epidemiological relevance of geographically mapping cancer mortality. In the first part of this work, after delineating the history of cancer mapping with a view on interpretation of Cancer Mortality Atlases, we briefly illustrate the 'art' of cancer mapping. Later we summarise in a non-mathematical way basic methods of spatial statistics. In the second part of this paper, we employ the 'Atlas of Cancer Mortality in the European Union and the European Economic Area 1993-1997' in order to illustrate spatial aspects of cancer mortality in Europe. In particular, we focus on the cancer related to tobacco and alcohol epidemics and on breast cancer which is of particular interest in cancer mapping. Here we suggest and reiterate two key concepts. The first is that a cancer atlas is not only a visual tool, but it also contain appropriate spatial statistical analyses that quantify the qualitative visual impressions to the readers even though at times revealing fallacy. The second is that a cancer atlas is by no means a book where answers to questions can be found. On the contrary, it ought to be considered as a tool to trigger new questions.

Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk.

RESULTS

The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56-0.94) and 0.98 (0.77-1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78-1.01) and 0.90 (0.80-1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62-0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75-1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70-0.97) if extra cancers were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.

The State of Lung Cancer Research: A Global Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Lung cancer is the leading cause of years of life lost because of cancer and is associated with the highest economic burden relative to other tumor types. Research remains at the cornerstone of achieving improved outcomes of lung cancer. We present the results of a comprehensive analysis of global lung cancer research between 2004 and 2013 (10 years).

METHODS

The study used bibliometrics to undertake a quantitative analysis of research output in the 24 leading countries in cancer research internationally on the basis of articles and reviews in the Web of Science (WoS) database.

RESULTS

A total of 32,161 lung cancer research articles from 2085 different journals were analyzed. Lung cancer research represented only 5.6% of overall cancer research in 2013, a 1.2% increase since 2004. The commitment to lung cancer research has fallen in most countries apart from China and shows no correlation with lung cancer burden. A review of key research types demonstrated that diagnostics, screening, and quality of life research represent 4.3%, 1.8%, and 0.3% of total lung cancer research, respectively. The leading research types were genetics (20%), systemic therapies (17%), and prognostic biomarkers (16%). Research output is increasingly basic science, with a decrease in clinical translational research output during this period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings have established that relative to the huge health, social, and economic burden associated with lung cancer, the level of world research output lags significantly behind that of research on other malignancies. Commitment to diagnostics, screening, and quality of life research is much lower than to basic science and medical research. The study findings are expected to provide the requisite knowledge to guide future cancer research programs in lung cancer.