Contact-tracing in cultural evolution: a Bayesian mixture model to detect geographic areas of language contact

When speakers of different languages interact, they are likely to influence each other: contact leaves traces in the linguistic record, which in turn can reveal geographical areas of past human interaction and migration. However, other factors may contribute to similarities between languages. Inheritance from a shared ancestral language and universal preference for a linguistic property may both overshadow contact signals. How can we find geographical contact areas in language data, while accounting for the confounding effects of inheritance and universal preference? We present sBayes, an algorithm for Bayesian clustering in the presence of confounding effects. The algorithm learns which similarities are better explained by confounders, and which are due to contact effects. Contact areas are free to take any shape or size, but an explicit geographical prior ensures their spatial coherence. We test sBayes on simulated data and apply it in two case studies to reveal language contact in South America and the Balkans. Our results are supported by findings from previous studies. While we focus on detecting language contact, the method can also be used to uncover other traces of shared history in cultural evolution, and more generally, to reveal latent spatial clusters in the presence of confounders.

Exploring correlations in genetic and cultural variation across language families in northeast Asia

Culture evolves in ways that are analogous to, but distinct from, genomes. Previous studies examined similarities between cultural variation and genetic variation (population history) at small scales within language families, but few studies have empirically investigated these parallels across language families using diverse cultural data. We report an analysis comparing culture and genomes from in and around northeast Asia spanning 11 language families. We extract and summarize the variation in language (grammar, phonology, lexicon), music (song structure, performance style), and genomes (genome-wide SNPs) and test for correlations. We find that grammatical structure correlates with population history (genetic history). Recent contact and shared descent fail to explain the signal, suggesting relationships that arose before the formation of current families. Our results suggest that grammar might be a cultural indicator of population history while also demonstrating differences among cultural and genetic relationships that highlight the complex nature of human history.

Can Bayesian phylogeography reconstruct migrations and expansions in linguistic evolution?

Bayesian phylogeography has been used in historical linguistics to reconstruct homelands and expansions of language families, but the reliability of these reconstructions has remained unclear. We contribute to this discussion with a simulation study where we distinguish two types of spatial processes: migration, where populations or languages leave one place for another, and expansion, where populations or languages gradually expand their territory. We simulate migration and expansion in two scenarios with varying degrees of spatial directional trends and evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art phylogeographic methods. Our results show that these methods fail to reconstruct migrations, but work surprisingly well on expansions, even under severe directional trends. We demonstrate that migrations and expansions have typical phylogenetic and spatial patterns, which in the one case inhibit and in the other facilitate phylogeographic reconstruction. Furthermore, we propose descriptive statistics to identify whether a real sample of languages, their relationship and spatial distribution, better fits a migration or an expansion scenario. Bringing together the results of the simulation study and theoretical arguments, we make recommendations for assessing the adequacy of phylogeographic models to reconstruct the spatial evolution of languages.

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is - on average - bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic 'overestimation of distance' becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.

How to compare movement? A review of physical movement similarity measures in geographic information science and beyond

In geographic information science, a plethora of different approaches and methods is used to assess the similarity of movement. Some of these approaches term two moving objects similar if they share akin paths. Others require objects to move at similar speed and yet others consider movement similar if it occurs at the same time. We believe that a structured and comprehensive classification of movement comparison measures is missing. We argue that such a classification not only depicts the status quo of qualitative and quantitative movement analysis, but also allows for identifying those aspects of movement for which similarity measures are scarce or entirely missing. In this review paper we, first, decompose movement into its spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal movement parameters. A movement parameter is a physical quantity of movement, such as speed, spatial path, or temporal duration. For each of these parameters we then review qualitative and quantitative methods of how to compare movement. Thus, we provide a systematic and comprehensive classification of different movement similarity measures used in geographic information science. This classification is a valuable first step toward a GIS toolbox comprising all relevant movement comparison methods.