Hurricane risk assessment in a multi-hazard context for Dominica in the Caribbean

Hurricanes can trigger widespread landslides and flooding creating compound hazards and multiple risks for vulnerable populations. An example is the island of Dominica in the Caribbean, where the population lives predominantly along the coast close to sea level and is subject to storm surge, with steep topography rising behind, with a propensity for landslides and flash river flooding. The simultaneous occurrence of the multiple hazards amplifies their impacts and couples with physical and social vulnerabilities to threaten lives, livelihoods, and the environment. Neglecting compound hazards underestimates overall risk. Using a whole island macroscale, (level-I) analysis, susceptibility scenarios for hurricanes, triggered landslides, and floods were developed by incorporating physical process parameters. The susceptibilities were combined with vulnerability indicators to map spatial patterns of hurricane multi-risks in Dominica. The analysis adopted a coupled approach involving the frequency ratio (FR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and geographic information system (GIS). Detailed hazard modelling was done at selected sites (level-II), incorporating storm surge estimates, landslide runout simulations, and steady flow analysis for floods. High-resolution terrain data and simulation models, the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) and the hydrologic engineering center's river analysis system (HEC-RAS), were employed. Ground validation confirmed reasonable agreement between projected and observed scenarios across different spatial scales. Following the United Nations Office for disaster risk reduction (UNDRR) call for the inclusion of local, traditional, and indigenous knowledge, feedback, and expert opinion to improve understanding of disaster risk, 17 interviews with local experts and 4 participatory workshops with residents were conducted, and findings were incorporated into the analysis, so as to gain insights into risk perceptions. The study's outcomes encompass projections and quantification of hurricane compound hazards, vulnerabilities, accumulated risks, and an understanding of local priorities. These findings will inform decision-making processes for risk mitigation choices and community actions by providing a new framework for multi-hazard risk assessment that is easy to implement in combining different data forms.

Household food insecurity, income loss, and symptoms of psychological distress among adults following the Cyclone Amphan in coastal Bangladesh

Introduction

Cyclone Amphan swept into Bangladesh’s southwestern coast at the end of May 2020, wreaking havoc on food security and economic stability, as well as possibly worsening mental health. We studied the prevalence of post-cyclone stressors in adults following the cyclone and its association with symptoms of psychological distress.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study in a coastal district of Bangladesh. A five-item brief symptom rating scale was used to measure the symptoms of psychological distress. Household food insecurity was measured using the USAID Household Food Insecurity Access Scale questionnaire. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) using robust log-linear models adjusted for potential confounders.

Results

A total of 478 adults (mean [SD] age, 37.0[12.6] years; 169[35.4%] women) participated in the study. The prevalence of moderate-to-severe psychological symptoms and suicidal ideation was 55.7% and 10.9%, respectively. Following the cyclone, 40.8% of the adults reported severe food insecurity, and 66% of them reported moderate-to-severe mental health symptoms. Also, 54.4% of women and 33.7% of men reported severe food insecurity in the households. Moreover, 25.5% of respondents reported no income or a significant income loss after the cyclone, and 65.5% of them had moderate-to-severe psychological symptoms. Also, 13.8% of respondents reported housing displacement because of severely damaged houses, and 68.2% of them reported moderate-to-severe psychological symptoms. The high prevalence of mental health symptoms was found in women (aPR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.06–1.82), people with severe food insecurity (aPR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.01–2.64), and people who lost jobs or lost a major income source (aPR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.02–1.54).

Conclusion

Following cyclone Amphan, many low-income individuals saw their income drop drastically while others were unemployed and living with severe food insecurity. The result suggests gender inequalities in food-security after the cyclone. Immediate action is needed to ensure household food-security for reducing the burden of mental illness. Rising opportunities of paid-jobs and decreasing income-loss, especially for the poor people, can have a protective impact on psychological distress. However, due to the high prevalence of severe psychological symptoms, long-term mental health services are required among the population of coastal Bangladesh.

Disaster risk reduction in conflict contexts: Lessons learned from the lived experiences of Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is currently hosting more than one million stateless Rohingya refugees, who fled from the Rakhine State to avoid genocide and serious crimes against humanity persecuted by the Myanmar Army. The newly arrived Rohingyas were accommodated in overcrowded refugee camps in Cox's Bazar District (CBD). The camps are highly vulnerable to landslides, tropical cyclones, flash-flooding, and communicable disease outbreak. Although a number of improvement measures are ongoing, however, no study to date has addressed Rohingyas' self-adopted strategies to mitigate disaster risks. Consequently, this paper aims to explore how refugees cope with risks associated with environmental hazards in the Kutupalong Rohingya Camp in CBD. A mixed-methods research strategy incorporating both quantitative household questionnaire survey and qualitative focus group discussions (FGDs) techniques were applied. In total 250 Rohingya refugees were selected for the questionnaire survey using a stratified random sampling method from camps 17 and 19, and two FGDs (male and female-only) were carried out in camp 13 involving 21 Rohingya participants. Results derived from the study show that responding to early warning systems, storing dried food and medicine, utilising available resources, relocating to safer shelters, and keeping hopes high were some of the coping strategies practised by the respondents. Literacy level imposed a significant impact over respondents' perception to accept various measures. For instance, the probability of storing dried food in preparation for disasters was 4 times higher among literate Rohingya compared to their illiterate counterparts. Similarly, for literate respondents, the probability was 20 times higher to store medicine than for illiterate. Guaranteed distribution of shelter strengthening kits among all refugee households, the inclusion of disaster risk awareness and preparedness training, ensuring safe and dignified return in Myanmar, and global and regional cooperation to address the refugee crisis are some of the propositions recommended in this study for improving Rohingyas' future adaptation strategies in a humanitarian context.

Cyclone risk assessment of the Cox's Bazar district and Rohingya refugee camps in southeast Bangladesh

Bangladesh has a long history of devastating tropical cyclones. In view of the effects of the storms on the country, risk assessment is essential for devising the mitigation strategies at various levels. By way of bringing the conceptual structure of general risk model in practice, this work aims to examine the spatial patterns of cyclone risk in the Cox's Bazar district (I) and Rohingya refugee camps (II) located on the southeastern coast of Bangladesh. We use 14 parameters representing the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as the components of risk. The selected parameters were analyzed and integrated though the complementary use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) for depicting the cyclone risk situation comprehensively at both the spatial scales. The status of the cyclone risk was identified and quantified as very high (6.84%, 3.43%), high (45.78%, 27.82%), moderate (5.97%, 39.42%), low (40.62%, 28.70%), and very low (0.81%, 0.61%) for the spatial scale I and II respectively. In general, northwestern and southern peripheral areas exhibited higher risk than the central and northeastern parts of the Cox's Bazar district; and in the refugee settlements, camp number 1E, 1W, 7, and 13 revealed relatively higher levels of the risk. The results of the assessment (I) were correlated with experiential damage from the 1991 cyclone; a reasonable consistency was noticed between the simulated scenario and the observed impacts. We assume that the deliverables of this spatial analysis could be useful to stakeholders while formulating the cyclone risk mitigation policies for the region. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that the applied method would deliver reliable results if tested in other coastal environments.

The UCL-Lancet Commission on Migration and Health: the health of a world on the move

With one billion people on the move or having moved in 2018, migration is a global reality, which has also become a political lightning rod. Although estimates indicate that the majority of global migration occurs within low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the most prominent dialogue focuses almost exclusively on migration from LMICs to high-income countries (HICs). Nowadays, populist discourse demonises the very same individuals who uphold economies, bolster social services, and contribute to health services in both origin and destination locations. Those in positions of political and economic power continue to restrict or publicly condemn migration to promote their own interests. Meanwhile nationalist movements assert so-called cultural sovereignty by delineating an us versus them rhetoric, creating a moral emergency.

In response to these issues, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Migration and Health was convened to articulate evidence-based approaches to inform public discourse and policy. The Commission undertook analyses and consulted widely, with diverse international evidence and expertise spanning sociology, politics, public health science, law, humanitarianism, and anthropology. The result of this work is a report that aims to be a call to action for civil society, health leaders, academics, and policy makers to maximise the benefits and reduce the costs of migration on health locally and globally. The outputs of our work relate to five overarching goals that we thread throughout the report.

First, we provide the latest evidence on migration and health outcomes. This evidence challenges common myths and highlights the diversity, dynamics, and benefits of modern migration and how it relates to population and individual health. Migrants generally contribute more to the wealth of host societies than they cost. Our Article shows that international migrants in HICs have, on average, lower mortality than the host country population. However, increased morbidity was found for some conditions and among certain subgroups of migrants, (eg, increased rates of mental illness in victims of trafficking and people fleeing conflict) and in populations left behind in the location of origin. Currently, in 2018, the full range of migrants’ health needs are difficult to assess because of poor quality data. We know very little, for example, about the health of undocumented migrants, people with disabilities, or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, or intersex (LGBTI) individuals who migrate or who are unable to move.

Second, we examine multisector determinants of health and consider the implication of the current sector-siloed approaches. The health of people who migrate depends greatly on structural and political factors that determine the impetus for migration, the conditions of their journey, and their destination. Discrimination, gender inequalities, and exclusion from health and social services repeatedly emerge as negative health influences for migrants that require cross-sector responses.

Third, we critically review key challenges to healthy migration. Population mobility provides economic, social, and cultural dividends for those who migrate and their host communities. Furthermore, the right to the highest attainable standard of health, regardless of location or migration status, is enshrined in numerous human rights instruments. However, national sovereignty concerns overshadow these benefits and legal norms. Attention to migration focuses largely on security concerns. When there is conjoining of the words health and migration, it is either focused on small subsets of society and policy, or negatively construed. International agreements, such as the UN Global Compact for Migration and the UN Global Compact on Refugees, represent an opportunity to ensure that international solidarity, unity of intent, and our shared humanity triumphs over nationalist and exclusionary policies, leading to concrete actions to protect the health of migrants.

Fourth, we examine equity in access to health and health services and offer evidence-based solutions to improve the health of migrants. Migrants should be explicitly included in universal health coverage commitments. Ultimately, the cost of failing to be health-inclusive could be more expensive to national economies, health security, and global health than the modest investments required.

Finally, we look ahead to outline how our evidence can contribute to synergistic and equitable health, social, and economic policies, and feasible strategies to inform and inspire action by migrants, policy makers, and civil society. We conclude that migration should be treated as a central feature of 21st century health and development. Commitments to the health of migrating populations should be considered across all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and in the implementation of the Global Compact for Migration and Global Compact on Refugees. This Commission offers recommendations that view population mobility as an asset to global health by showing the meaning and reality of good health for all. We present four key messages that provide a focus for future action.

Recrystallization and damage of ice in winter sports

Ice samples, after sliding against a steel runner, show evidence of recrystallization and microcracking under the runner, as well as macroscopic cracking throughout the ice. The experiments that produced these ice samples are designed to be analogous to sliding in the winter sport of skeleton. Changes in the ice fabric are shown using thick and thin sections under both diffuse and polarized light. Ice drag is estimated as 40-50% of total energy dissipation in a skeleton run. The experimental results are compared with visual inspections of skeleton tracks, and to similar behaviour in rocks during sliding on earthquake faults. The results presented may be useful to athletes and designers of winter sports equipment.This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.