Ecosystem service benefits and costs of deep-sea ecosystem restoration

Deep-sea ecosystems are facing degradation which could have severe consequences for biodiversity and the livelihoods of coastal populations. Ecosystem restoration as a natural based solution has been regarded as a useful means to recover ecosystems. The study provides a social cost-benefit analysis for a proposed project to restore the Dohrn Canyon cold water corals and the deep-sea ecosystem in the Bay of Naples, Italy. By incorporating ecosystem service benefits and uncertainties related to a complex natural-technological-social system surrounding restoration activities, the study demonstrated how to evaluate large-scale ecosystem restoration activities. The results indicate that an ecosystem restoration project can be economic (in terms of welfare improvement) even if the restoration costs are high. Our study shows the uncertainty associated with restoration success rate significantly affects the probability distribution of the expected net present values. Identifying and controlling the underlying factors to improve the restoration successful rate is thus crucial.

Skill Assessment for Coupled Biological/Physical Models of Marine Systems

Coupled biological/physical models of marine systems serve many purposes including the synthesis of information, hypothesis generation, and as a tool for numerical experimentation. However, marine system models are increasingly used for prediction to support high-stakes decision-making. In such applications it is imperative that a rigorous model skill assessment is conducted so that the model's capabilities are tested and understood. Herein, we review several metrics and approaches useful to evaluate model skill. The definition of skill and the determination of the skill level necessary for a given application is context specific and no single metric is likely to reveal all aspects of model skill. Thus, we recommend the use of several metrics, in concert, to provide a more thorough appraisal. The routine application and presentation of rigorous skill assessment metrics will also serve the broader interests of the modeling community, ultimately resulting in improved forecasting abilities as well as helping us recognize our limitations.