Treatment methods for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in England: A cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the cost-effectiveness of different treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN).

DESIGN

A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data available in the literature and expert opinion.

SETTING

England.

POPULATION

Women treated for CIN.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic model to simulate the clinical course of 1000 women who received local treatment for CIN and were followed up for 10 years after treatment. In the model we considered surgical complications as well as oncological and reproductive outcomes over the 10-year period. The costs calculated were those incurred by the National Health Service (NHS) of England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost per one CIN2+ recurrence averted (oncological outcome); cost per one preterm birth averted (reproductive outcome); overall cost per one adverse oncological or reproductive outcome averted.

RESULTS

For young women of reproductive age, large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ) was the most cost-effective treatment overall at all willingness-to-pay thresholds. For postmenopausal women, LLETZ remained the most cost-effective treatment up to a threshold of £31,500, but laser conisation became the most cost-effective treatment above that threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

LLETZ is the most cost-effective treatment for both younger and older women. However, for older women, more radical excision with laser conisation could also be considered if the NHS is willing to spend more than £31,500 to avert one CIN2+ recurrence.

New Zealand rickettsia-like organism and Tenacibaculum maritimum vaccine efficacy study

A cohort of Chinook salmon juveniles was vaccinated, with an autogenous bivalent vaccine against New Zealand RLOs (NZ-RLO1) and Tenacibaculum maritimum. A proportion of the cohort was not vaccinated to act as controls. At smoltification, the fish were challenged with NZ-RLO1, NZ-RLO2, or T. maritimum. We found that challenge with T. maritimum by immersion in (7.5 × 105  cfu/mL of water) did not yield any pathology. Challenge with RLOs produced clinical signs that were more or less severe depending on the challenge route, dose or vaccination status. Survival was significantly higher for vaccinated fish within the groups challenged with NZ-RLO1 by intraperitoneal injection with a relative percent survival (RPS) of 48.84%. Survival was not significantly different between vaccinated and non-vaccinated fish for groups challenged with NZ-RLO2 by intraperitoneal injection or by NZ-RLO1 by immersion. Yet, anecdotally the clinical disease presentation (manifesting as haemorrhagic, ulcerative skin lesions) was more severe for the non-vaccinated fish. This study demonstrates that autogenous vaccine against NZ-RLO is protective against severe disease and death by NZ-RLO1 challenge which warrants implementation and further evaluation under field conditions. Yet, this study also highlights the importance of the route of administration and dose when evaluating pathogenicity and vaccine efficacy.

Using simple clinical and ultrasound variables to develop a model to predict first trimester pregnancy viability

INTRODUCTION

Early prediction of pregnancies destined to miscarry will allow couples to prepare for this common but often unexpected eventuality, and clinicians to allocate finite resources. We aimed to develop a prediction model combining clinical, demographic, and sonographic data as a clinical tool to aid counselling about first trimester pregnancy outcome.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, UK from March 2014 to May 2019. Women with confirmed intrauterine pregnancies between 5 weeks and their dating scan (11-14 weeks) were recruited. Participants attended serial ultrasound scans in the first trimester and at each visit recorded symptoms of vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, nausea and vomiting using validated scoring tools. Pregnancies were followed up until the dating scan (11-14 weeks). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to predict first trimester viability. A model was developed with multivariable logistic regression, variables limited by feature selection, and bootstrapping with multiple imputation was used for internal validation.

RESULTS

1403 women were recruited and after exclusions, data were available for 1105. 160 women (14.5 %) experienced first trimester miscarriage and 945 women (85.5 %) had viable pregnancies at 11-14 weeks' gestation. The average gestational age at the initial visit (calculated from the menstrual dates) was 7 + 1 weeks (+/-12.2 days). A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict first trimester viability and included the variables: mean gestational sac diameter, presence of fetal heart pulsations, difference in gestational age from last menstrual period and from mean sac diameter on ultrasonography, current folic acid usage and maternal age. The model demonstrated good performance (optimism-corrected area under curve (AUC) 0.84, 95 % CI 0.81-0.87; optimism-corrected calibration slope 0.969).

CONCLUSION

We have developed and internally validated a model to predict first trimester viability with good accuracy prior to the 11-14 week dating scan, which now needs to be externally validated prior to clinical use.

Diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions and the risk of gynaecological and obstetric morbidity: an umbrella review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in recent years with serious health ramifications. The aim of this study was to evaluate the strength and validity of associations between diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions and the risk of any type of gynaecological or obstetric conditions.

METHODS

Design: Umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, manual screening of references.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies investigating the relationship between diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions with gynaecological or obstetric outcomes. Meta-analyses that did not include complete data from individual studies, such as relative risk, 95% confidence intervals, number of cases/controls, or total population were excluded.

DATA ANALYSIS

The evidence from meta-analyses of observational studies was graded as strong, highly suggestive, suggestive or weak according to criteria comprising the random effects estimate of meta-analyses and their largest study, the number of cases, 95% prediction intervals, I² heterogeneity index between studies, excess significance bias, small study effect and sensitivity analysis using credibility ceilings. Interventional meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials were assessed separately based on the statistical significance of reported associations, the risk of bias and quality of evidence (GRADE) of included meta-analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 117 meta-analyses of observational cohort studies and 200 meta-analyses of randomised clinical trials that evaluated 317 outcomes were included. Strong or highly suggestive evidence only supported a positive association between gestational diabetes and caesarean section, large for gestational age babies, major congenital malformations and heart defects and an inverse relationship between metformin use and ovarian cancer incidence. Only a fifth of the randomised controlled trials investigating the effect of anti-diabetic interventions on women's health reached statistical significance and highlighted metformin as a more effective agent than insulin on risk reduction of adverse obstetric outcomes in both gestational and pre-gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational diabetes appears to be strongly associated with a high risk of caesarean section and large for gestational age babies. Weaker associations were demonstrated between diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions with other obstetric and gynaecological outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework (OSF) (Registration https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/9G6AB ).

O-252 Next generation sequencing analysis of the seminal microbiome in male partners of women with idiopathic recurrent pregnancy loss: results of a prospective cohort study

Study question

Is there an association between the semen microbiome, seminal reactive oxygen species (ROS) and DNA fragmentation in men with recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL)?

Summary answer

This pilot study outlines the subtle role that microbiota play in influencing ROS and sperm DNA damage for male partners of women with RPL

What is known already

RPL is defined as the loss of two or more consecutive pregnancies. This devastating condition impacts approximately 1% of couples. Paternal causes are not routinely screened for and an underlying cause is not found in up to 50% of cases. Recent studies have reported an association between elevated seminal ROS and sperm DNA fragmentation in the male partner, and RPL. We hypothesised that seminal microbiota contribute to increased ROS and sperm DNA damage. To test this, we investigated the relationship between seminal bacterial composition and ROS levels in men with proven fertility versus men with a history of RPL.

Study design, size, duration

We conducted a prospective, case-control study and recruited participants between November 2018 and March 2020 at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust. A total of 109 men participated in the study; 46 men with RPL and 63 men with proven fertility and no history of RPL. Each participant attended for a single study visit which consisted of a full medical history, assessment of testicular volume, height, weight, blood samples and production of a semen sample.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Routine semen analysis (WHO) and endocrine and lipid profiles were performed for all patients. Semen ROS and DNA fragmentation were performed (luminol and TUNEL methodologies, respectively). ROS were classified as high (>3.77 RLU/s) or low (<3.77 RLU/s). Metataxonomic profiling of samples was performed using Illumina Miseq-based sequencing of the V1-V2 hypervariable regions of bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicons. Multivariate and univariate modelling was performed to explore associations between metataxonomic profiles, ROS levels and clinical metadata.

Main results and the role of chance

Men with RPL had higher mean semen volume (p = 0.02) and increased prevalence of high ROS (p = 0.02, Fisher's exact) compared with controls; but other clinical characteristics were similar between groups. A total of 3,700,136 high quality sequence reads were generated for the dataset with an average of 33,946 reads/sample. Hierarchical clustering of bacterial genera relative abundances identified 4 distinct microbial signatures characterised by high relative abundance of 1. Streptococcus, 2. Lactobacillus and Gardnerella, 3. polymicrobial (including Prevotella), and 4. Corynebacterium and Finegoldia. Prevalences of these groups were similar in control and RPL groups (p = 0.11). Additionally, no association between the bacterial genera groups and elevated ROS, DNA fragmentation, or clinical factors such as age, ethnicity, or semen volume were observed (chi-square tests). At species taxonomy level relative abundance of L. crispatus was higher in controls compared to RPL, but did not withstand false discovery rate correction for multiple testing (p = 0.006, q = 0.67). Higher relative abundance of Microbacterium was detected in semen samples with high DNA fragmentation (p = 8.7E-4, q = 0.08). This relationship was even stronger within the RPL cohort (p = 2.8E-5, q = 0.002). No significant enrichment of specific taxa was observed between high or low ROS samples however, low ROS was associated with Corynebacterium relative abundance >20%.

Limitations, reasons for caution

More patients are required to enhance statistical power. Duplicate sample collection may establish the robustness of seminal compositions observed. Time since last sexual intercourse samples may affect the analysis. Concomitant analysis of the vaginal microbiome of female partners may improve our understanding of how partners may affect each other’s fertility.

Wider implications of the findings

Our data suggests interactions between microbiota composition, ROS and sperm DNA damage which may be implicated in the pathogenesis of recurrent miscarriage. Further studies are needed to determine if seminal microbiota play causal roles in RPL, and whether interventions modifying the seminal microbiome may modify pregnancy outcomes in affected couples

Trial registration number

not applicable

Gradient boosted trees with individual explanations: An alternative to logistic regression for viability prediction in the first trimester of pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Clinical models to predict first trimester viability are traditionally based on multivariable logistic regression (LR) which is not directly interpretable for non-statistical experts like physicians. Furthermore, LR requires complete datasets and pre-established variables specifications. In this study, we leveraged the internal non-linearity, feature selection and missing values handling mechanisms of machine learning algorithms, along with a post-hoc interpretability strategy, as potential advantages over LR for clinical modeling.

METHODS

The dataset included 1154 patients with 2377 individual scans and was obtained from a prospective observational cohort study conducted at a hospital in London, UK, from March 2014 to May 2019. The data were split into a training (70%) and a test set (30%). Parsimonious and complete multivariable models were developed from two algorithms to predict first trimester viability at 11-14 weeks gestational age (GA): LR and light gradient boosted machine (LGBM). Missing values were handled by multiple imputation where appropriate. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework was applied to derive individual explanations of the models.

RESULTS

The parsimonious LGBM model had similar discriminative and calibration performance as the parsimonious LR (AUC 0.885 vs 0.860; calibration slope: 1.19 vs 1.18). The complete models did not outperform the parsimonious models. LGBM was robust to the presence of missing values and did not require multiple imputation unlike LR. Decision path plots and feature importance analysis revealed different algorithm behaviors despite similar predictive performance. The main driving variable from the LR model was the pre-specified interaction between fetal heart presence and mean sac diameter. The crown-rump length variable and a proxy variable reflecting the difference in GA between expected and observed GA were the two most important variables of LGBM. Finally, while variable interactions must be specified upfront with LR, several interactions were ranked by the SHAP framework among the most important features learned automatically by the LGBM algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

Gradient boosted algorithms performed similarly to carefully crafted LR models in terms of discrimination and calibration for first trimester viability prediction. By handling multi-collinearity, missing values, feature selection and variable interactions internally, the gradient boosted trees algorithm, combined with SHAP, offers a serious alternative to traditional LR models.

Effect of initiating biologics compared to intensifying conventional DMARDs on clinical and MRI outcomes in established rheumatoid arthritis patients in clinical remission: Secondary analyses of the IMAGINE-RA trial

Objectives: To compare the effect of treat-to-target-based escalations in conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) and biologics on clinical disease activity and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) inflammation in a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cohort in clinical remission.Method: One-hundred patients with established RA, Disease Activity Score based on 28-joint count-C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) < 3.2, and no swollen joints (hereafter referred to as 'in clinical remission') who received csDMARDs underwent clinical evaluation and MRI of the wrist and second to fifth metacarpophalangeal joints every 4 months. They followed a 2 year MRI treatment strategy targeting DAS28-CRP ≤ 3.2, no swollen joints, and absence of MRI osteitis, with predefined algorithmic treatment escalation: first: increase in csDMARDs; second: adding a biologic; third: switch biologic. MRI osteitis and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) (co-primary outcomes) and MRI combined inflammation and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) (key secondary outcomes) were assessed 4 months after treatment change and expressed as estimates of group differences. Statistical analyses were based on the intention-to-treat population analysed using repeated-measures mixed models.Escalation to first biologic compared to csDMARD escalation more effectively reduced MRI osteitis (difference between least squares means 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.0-2.6), HAQ score (0.08, 0.03-0.1), MRI combined inflammation (2.5, 0.9-4.1), and SDAI scores (2.7, 1.9-3.5).Treat-to-target-based treatment escalations to biologics compared to escalation in csDMARDs more effectively improved MRI inflammation, physical function, and clinical disease activity in patients with established RA in clinical remission. Treatment escalation in RA patients in clinical remission reduces clinical and MRI-assessed disease activity.Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01656278.

P–385 The relationship between systemic oestradiol and vaginal microbiota composition in miscarriage and normal pregnancy

Study question

Is there an association between serum oestradiol, vaginal microbial composition and pregnancy outcome in the early first trimester?

Summary answer

In women with a vaginal microbiome deplete of Lactobacillus species at the time of Pregnancy of Uncertain Viability (IPUV), higher serum oestradiol associates with livebirth.

What is known already

During pregnancy, oestradiol mediates vaginal mucosal properties and increases glycogen deposition in epithelial cells which is thought to support colonisation of Lactobacillus species. Low levels of Lactobacillus associates with adverse outcomes such as miscarriage and preterm birth. The direct relationship between systemic oestradiol and the vaginal microbiome has never been studied in pregnancy. However studies have shown a positive correlation between serum oestrone, vaginal glycogen and Lactobacillus abundance in menopausal women.

Study design, size, duration

This was a prospective cohort study where one-hundred women were recruited in early pregnancy at the time of IPUV and donated paired blood and vaginal samples. 40 women had an eventual miscarriage, 58 had a livebirth and two pregnancies were terminated. All 100 women donated one paired serum and vaginal sample at this time point, and 22 women with Lactobacillus depletion at the time of IPUV donated further longitudinal vaginal samples.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Participants were recruited from an Early Pregnancy Unit and underwent transvaginal ultrasound assessment of their pregnancy. Serum samples were analysed with an immunoassay on a ROCHE COBAS E411 analyser for Oestradiol (pg/ml) and Progesterone (ng/ml). Bacterial DNA was extracted from paired vaginal swabs and sequenced using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons.

Main results and the role of chance

Lactobacillus dominance of the vagina was associated with higher serum levels of E2 and progesterone compared to depletion (E2=398pg/ml vs 302pg/ml(p = 0.02), P4=23.1ng/ml vs 17ng/ml(p = 0.02)). E2 and P4 were positively correlated (r = 0.6, p &lt; 0.05). At species level, L. crispatus dominance associated with significantly higher levels of E2 compared to high-diversity communities (468pg/ml vs 302pg/ml(p = 0.03) but no such relationship was observed for P4. Both E2 and P4 levels were lower in women who eventually miscarried. However there was no significant difference in the vaginal bacterial composition at genera or species level at this early gestational age (P = 0.08) regardless of per vaginal bleeding. However in women with Lactobacillus depleted microbiota, livebirth was associated with significantly higher E2 levels compared to women suffering miscarriage (212pg/ml in miscarriage vs 395pg/ml in livebirth, p = 0.003) (OR = 22.4 P = 0.004). In 22 women who had Lactobacillus depletion at the time of IPUV (7 with an eventual outcome of miscarriage, and 15 with an eventual outcome of livebirth), longitudinal vaginal bacterial DNA sequencing was performed. In 7/15 women with livebirth, and higher E2 levels, the microbial composition changed to become more Lactobacillus dominant during pregnancy, whereas in those with miscarriage, only 1/7 changed to become Lactobacillus dominant.

Limitations, reasons for caution

In this study, serum oestradiol levels were compared to the local vaginal bacterial environment. The ideal would be to study local vaginal oestradiol, glycogen and the bacterial composition.

Wider implications of the findings: In contrast to previous studies in menopause where low oestrogen levels associate with the vaginal microbial composition, this study uses the high oestradiol environment of early pregnancy to study the mechanistic relationship between oestradiol and vaginal Lactobacillus abundance.

Trial registration number

NA

O-129 Lactobacillus deplete vaginal microbial composition is associated with chromosomally normal miscarriage and local inflammation

Study question

To investigate the vaginal microbial composition and the local immune response in chromosomally normal and abnormal miscarriages and compare this to uncomplicated pregnancies delivering at term.

Summary answer

We show that euploid miscarriage is associated with a significantly higher prevalence of Lactobacillus spp. deplete vaginal microbial communities compared to aneuploid miscarriage.

What is known already

Emerging evidence supports the role of the vaginal microbiota in adverse pregnancy outcome, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. A dominance of Lactobacillus spp. in pregnancy provides protection against pathogenic bacteria by producing lactic acid and antimicrobial compounds. A depletion in Lactobacillus spp. is often linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes.Current work also implicates the reproductive tract microbiota as a key modulator of local inflammatory and immune pathways. We have previously shown that miscarriage is associated with vaginal dysbiosis but without knowledge of the cytogenetic status of those miscarriages or the local immune profile.

Study design, size, duration

This study was a prospective observational cohort study based at Queen Charlotte’s & Chelsea Hospital, Early Pregnancy Unit, London between March 2014-February 2019. Vaginal swabs were collected from the posterior vaginal fornix of 167 patients.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

We used 16S rRNA gene based metataxonomics to interrogate the vaginal microbiota in a cohort of 167 women, 93 miscarriage patients (54 euploid and 39 aneuploid using molecular cytogenetics) and 74 women who delivered at term and correlate this with the aneuploidy status of the miscarriages. We also measured the concentrations of IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, IFN-γ, IL-1β, IL-18 and IL-10 in cervical vaginal fluid using Human Magnetic Luminex Screening Assay (8-plex).

Main results and the role of chance

We show that euploid miscarriage is associated with a significantly higher prevalence of Lactobacillus spp. deplete vaginal microbial communities compared to aneuploid miscarriage (P=0.008). In women having Lactobacillus spp. deplete vaginal microbial communities, euploid miscarriage associates with higher concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1β, IL-8, IL-6 (P&lt;0.001, P=0.01 and P&lt;0.001 respectively) and lower concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines IL10 (P&lt;0.001) when compared to viable term pregnancy. We identified Prevotella bivia and Streptococcus as particularly common in euploid miscarriage and as drivers of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α). Co-occurrence network analyses revealed low levels of co-occurrence between Lactobacillus crispatus and other organisms and strong co-occurrence between Streptococcal species. Our data show a combination of both an adverse vaginal microbiota and a cytokine response to it influences early pregnancy outcome. Although this may be a reflection of intrinsic maternal immune response, it appears that the cytokine response is largely driven by the bacterial taxa present in the vagina, which presents an opportunity for specific, directed intervention. The negative co-occurrence between L.crispatus and all other organisms suggests a possible therapeutic role for probiotics containing this organism. The influence of Streptococci also suggests a potential benefit of targeted antibiotics with probiotics for some patients.

Limitations, reasons for caution

There were no longitudinal samples in this cohort and our results are based on the assumption that the vaginal microbial composition is stable throughout the first trimester.Future longitudinal studies with larger sample sizes are needed to corroborate these findings and provide insights to the mechanisms that trigger the inflammatory response.

Wider implications of the findings

These findings support the hypothesis that the vaginal microbiota plays an important aetiological role in euploid miscarriage and may represent a target to modify the risk of pregnancy loss.

Trial registration number

n/a

Morbidity after local excision of the transformation zone for cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia and early cervical cancer

The awareness that cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) treatment increases the risk of preterm birth has led to major changes in clinical practice. Women with CIN have a higher baseline risk of prematurity but local treatment further increases this risk. The risk further increases with increasing cone length and multiplies for repeat excisions; it is unclear whether small cones confer any additional risk to CIN alone. There is no evidence to suggest that fertility is affected by local treatment, although this increases the risk of mid-trimester loss. Caution should prevail when deciding to treat women with CIN of reproductive age. If treatment is offered, this should be conducted effectively to optimise the clearance of disease and minimise the risk of recurrence. Colposcopists should alert women undergoing treatment that this may increase the risk of preterm birth and that they may be offered interventions when pregnant. The cone length should be clearly documented and used as a risk stratifier.

Genetic variation in cervical preinvasive and invasive disease: a genome-wide association study

BACKGROUND

Most uterine cervical high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are transient, with only a small fraction developing into cervical cancer. Family aggregation studies and heritability estimates suggest a significant inherited genetic component. Candidate gene studies and previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) report associations between the HLA region and cervical cancer. Adopting a genome-wide approach, we aimed to compare genetic variation in women with invasive cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 with that in healthy controls.

METHODS

We did a GWAS in a cohort of unrelated European individuals using data from UK Biobank, a population-based cohort including 273 377 women aged 40-69 years at recruitment between March 13, 2006, and Oct 1, 2010. We used an additive univariate logistic regression model to analyse genetic variants associated with invasive cervical cancer or CIN3. We sought replication of candidate associations in FinnGen, a large independent dataset of 128 123 individuals. We also did a two-sample mendelian randomisation approach to explore the role of risk factors in the genetic risk of cervical cancer.

FINDINGS

We included 4769 CIN3 and invasive cervical cancer case samples and 145 545 control samples in the GWAS. Of 9 600 464 assayed and imputed single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), six independent variants were associated with CIN3 and invasive cervical cancer. These included novel loci rs10175462 (PAX8; odds ratio [OR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·84-0·91; p=1·07 × 10-9) and rs27069 (CLPTM1L; 0·88, 0·84-0·92; p=2·51 × 10-9), and previously reported signals at rs9272050 (HLA-DQA1; 1·27, 1·21-1·32; p=2·51 × 10-28), rs6938453 (MICA; 0·79, 0·75-0·83; p=1·97 × 10-17), rs55986091 (HLA-DQB1; 0·66, 0·60-0·72; p=6·42 × 10-28), and rs9266183 (HLA-B; 0·73, 0·64-0·83; p=1·53 × 10-6). Three SNPs were replicated in the independent Finnish dataset of 1648 invasive cervical cancer cases: PAX8 (rs10175462; p=0·015), CLPTM1L (rs27069; p=2·54 × 10-7), and HLA-DQA1 (rs9272050; p=7·90 × 10-8). Mendelian randomisation further supported the complementary role of smoking (OR 2·46, 95% CI 1·64-3·69), older age at first pregnancy (0·80, 0·68-0·95), and number of sexual partners (1·95, 1·44-2·63) in the risk of developing cervical cancer.

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide new evidence for the genetic susceptibility to cervical cancer, specifically the PAX8, CLPTM1L, and HLA genes, suggesting disruption in apoptotic and immune function pathways. Future studies integrating host and viral, genetic, and epigenetic variation, could further elucidate complex host-viral interactions.

FUNDING

NIHR Imperial BRC Wellcome 4i Clinician Scientist Training Programme.

Peri-implantation urinary hormone monitoring distinguishes between types of first-trimester spontaneous pregnancy loss

BACKGROUND

Lutenising hormone (LH) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) hormone are useful biochemical markers to indicate ovulation and embryonic implantation, respectively. We explored "point-of-care" LH and hCG testing using a digital home-testing device in a cohort trying to conceive.

OBJECTIVE

To determine conception and spontaneous pregnancy loss rates, and to assess whether trends in LH-hCG interval which are known to be associated with pregnancy viability could be identified with point-of-care testing.

METHODS

We recruited healthy women aged 18-44 planning a pregnancy. Participants used a home monitor to track LH and hCG levels for 12 menstrual cycles or until pregnancy was conceived. Pregnancy outcomes (viable, clinical miscarriage, or biochemical pregnancy loss) were recorded. Monitor data were analysed by a statistician blinded to pregnancy outcome.

RESULTS

From 387 recruits, there were 290 pregnancies with known outcomes within study timeline. Adequate monitor data for analysis were available for 150 conceptive cycles. Overall spontaneous first-trimester pregnancy loss rate was 30% with clinically recognised miscarriage rate of 17%. The difference to LH-hCG interval median had wider spread for biochemical losses (0.5-8.5 days) compared with clinical miscarriage (0-5 days) and viable pregnancies (0-6 days). Fixed effect hCG profile change distinguished between pregnancy outcomes from as early as day-2 post-hCG rise from baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of first-trimester spontaneous pregnancy loss in our prospective cohort is comparable to studies utilising daily urinary hCG collection and laboratory assays. A wider LH-hCG interval range is associated with biochemical pregnancy loss and may relate to late or early implantation. Although early hCG changes discriminate between pregnancies that will miscarry from viable pregnancies, this point-of-care testing model is not sufficiently developed to be predictive.

AB0209 PREDICTORS OF ACHIEVING STRINGENT REMISSION IN PATIENTS WITH ESTABLISHED RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS IN CLINICAL REMISSION FOLLOWING A TREAT-TO-TARGET STRATEGY

Background:

Achieving remission according to stringent criteria such as Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) and ACR/EULAR Boolean remission is associated with a better long-term outcome in patients with RA1. Possible predictors of achieving stringent remission in patients in clinical remission, following targeted treatment strategies, have not been investigated.

Objectives:

To investigate the predictive value of clinical, radiographic and MRI variables on achieving more stringent remission in RA patients in clinical remission, following MRI and conventional treat-to-target (T2T) strategies.

Methods:

In this post-hoc study, data were used from 171 RA patients in clinical remission (DAS28-CRP< 3.2 and no swollen joints) on conventional synthetic DMARDs, included in the IMAGINE-RA randomized clinical trial2, where they followed an MRI T2T strategy (targeting absence of osteitis) combined with clinical remission (DAS28-CRP≤3.2 and no swollen joints) or a conventional T2T strategy (targeting clinical remission only). Baseline contrast-enhanced MRIs of the dominant wrist and 2nd-5thMCP joints and radiographs of hands and feet were evaluated according to the OMERACT RAMRIS scoring system and Sharp/van der Heijde method, respectively, by two experienced readers. Potential clinical, radiographic and MRI baseline predictors of remission were first tested in univariate logistic regression analyses with achievement of Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), SDAI, and ACR/EULAR Boolean remission at 24 months as dependent variables. Variables with p<0.25 were subsequently tested in multivariate logistic regression analyses with backward selection, adjusted for age, gender and strategy group. Missing values of covariates were imputed using chained equations.

Results:

Based on the univariate analyses, tender joint count, patient VAS global, VAS pain, VAS fatigue, physician VAS global, HAQ, MRI osteitis, radiographic and MRI erosion and joint space narrowing scores were included in multivariate analyses (Table).

Following the MRI T2T strategy was a positive predictor and high patient VAS global a negative predictor of achieving all definitions of remission. Furthermore, high patient VAS pain was negatively associated with achieving SDAI and ACR/EULAR Boolean remission and high tender joint count negatively associated with achieving CDAI and SDAI remission.

Multivariate logistic regression analyses with backward selection, final modelsDependent variables, remission at 24 monthsCDAISDAIACR/EULAR BooleanOR95% CIp-valueOR95% CIp-valueOR95% CIp-valueCovariatesMRI T2T strategy group2.941.25-7.520.0132.461.03-6.350.0435.472.33-14.11<0.001Female0.900.36-2.250.820.800.31-2.050.640.800.32-1.970.63Age1.020.98-1.070.321.020.98-1.070.331.030.99-1.070.15Tender joint count (0-28)0.330.12-0.860.0230.290.10-0.780.013Patient VAS global0.910.88-0.94<0.0010.930.88-0.97<0.0010.930.88-0.980.003Patient VAS pain0.950.91-1.000.0490.920.87-0.980.004

Conclusion:

In RA patients in clinical remission, poor patient reported outcomes and tender joint count were associated with decreased chance of achieving stringent remission, while following an MRI T2T strategy predicted stringent remission across all definitions thereof.

References:

[1]Smolen et al. Ann Rheum Dis 2017

[2]Møller-Bisgaard et al. JAMA 2019

Disclosure of Interests:

Signe Møller-Bisgaard Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Consultant of: BMS, Speakers bureau: BMS, Celgene, Pfizer, Stylianos Georgiadis Grant/research support from: Novartis, Kim Hørslev-Petersen: None declared, Bo Ejbjerg: None declared, Merete L. Hetland Grant/research support from: BMS, MSD, AbbVie, Roche, Novartis, Biogen and Pfizer, Consultant of: Eli Lilly, Speakers bureau: Orion Pharma, Biogen, Pfizer, CellTrion, Merck and Samsung Bioepis, Lykke Ørnbjerg: None declared, Daniel Glinatsi: None declared, Jakob Møllenbach Møller: None declared, Mikael Boesen Consultant of: AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Esaote, Glenmark, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Paid instructor for: IAG, Image Analysis Group, AbbVie, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, esaote, Glenmark, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB (scientific advisor)., Speakers bureau: Eli Lilly, Esaote, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Kristian Stengaard-Pedersen: None declared, Ole Rintek Madsen: None declared, Bente Jensen: None declared, Jan Villadsen: None declared, Ellen Margrethe Hauge: None declared, Philip Bennett: None declared, Oliver Hendricks: None declared, Karsten Asmussen: None declared, Marcin Kowalski: None declared, Hanne Merete Lindegaard: None declared, Henning Bliddal Grant/research support from: received research grant fra NOVO Nordic, Consultant of: consultant fee fra NOVO Nordic, Niels Steen Krogh: None declared, Torkell Ellingsen: None declared, Agnete Nielsen: None declared, Lone Balding: None declared, Anne Grethe Jurik: None declared, Henrik Thomsen: None declared, Mikkel Ǿstergaard Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Merck, and Novartis, Consultant of: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and UCB, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and UCB

FRI0019 MRI INFLAMMATION, DISEASE ACTIVITY AND FUNCTIONAL IMPAIRMENT ARE MORE EFFECTIVELY REDUCED BY ESCALATION TO BIOLOGICS COMPARED TO CSDMARD-ESCALATION IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS PATIENTS IN CLINICAL REMISSION FOLLOWING A TREAT-TO-TARGET STRATEGY: SECONDARY ANALYSES OF THE IMAGINE-RA TRIAL

Background:

The effect of different treatment escalations on MRI inflammation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients following an MRI treat-to-target (T2T) strategy has not previously been investigated.

Objectives:

To compare the effect of different treatment escalations on MRI inflammation, physical function and disease activity in RA patients in clinical remission, following an MRI T2T strategy.

Methods:

One hundred RA patients in clinical remission (DAS28-CRP<3.2 and no swollen joints), on conventional synthetic (cs) DMARDs following an MRI T2T strategy targeting DAS28-CRP≤3.2, no swollen joints plus absence of MRI osteitis, were followed for 2 years with clinical and MRI (wrist and 2nd-5thMCP joints) evaluation every 4 months1. If target was not met, a predefined treatment escalation algorithm dictated: First: increase in csDMARDs (A), second: adding a TNF inhibitor (TNFi) (B), third and onwards: switch between biologics (C). If target was met, no change in baseline csDMARDs was done (D). Outcomes were assessed 4 months after treatment change. MRIs were evaluated with known chronology by one experienced reader. Repeated measures mixed linear models were used to express estimates of group differences on predefined co-primary outcomes (MRI osteitis, HAQ) and key secondary outcomes (MRI combined inflammation, Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI)).

Results:

Escalation to first TNFi (B) or to 2ndor later biologic (C) compared to csDMARDs (A) was consistently more effective on all outcomes (e.g. in group B osteitis was reduced with 1.8 units more than A) (Table). Unchanged (D) compared to escalation in csDMARD (A) treatment did not differ, except for HAQ-score. Escalation to a 2ndor later biologics (C) compared to the first TNFi (B) was more effective suppressing MRI inflammation. Escalation to TNFi treatment (B) or to 2ndor later biologic (C) compared to unchanged treatment (D) was more effective on all outcomes except from HAQ-score (no difference between groups).

Comparisons of treatment escalations1A: Increment in csDMARD mono/combination therapy (n=73)); B: Switch from csDMARD combination therapy to TNFi (n=39); C: Switch from TNFi to 2ndbiologic/switch between biologics (n=21); D: No change in csDMARDs from baseline (n=58)A vs BA vs CA vs DB vs CB vs DC vs DOutcomesPrimaryMRIOsteitis1.8 (1.0; 2.6) p<.00013.6 (2.3; 4.8) p<.00010.3 (−0.3; 1.0)p=.321.8 (0.8; 2.9) p=.0006−1.4 (−2.4; −0.5) p=.0045−3.3 (−4.6; −1.9) p<.0001HAQ0.081(0.033; 0.13) p=.00110.091(0.031; 0.15) p=.00320.054(0.014; 0.095) p=.00910.0092(−0.051; 0.070) p=.77−0.027(−0.082; 0.028) p=.33−0.037(−0.10; 0.031) p=.29Key secondaryMRI combined inflammationa2.5 (0.9; 4.1) p=.00185.4 (3.1; 7.7) p<.00010.4 (−0.9; 1.8)p=.522.9 (0.8; 4.9) p=.0064−2.1 (−4.0; −0.2) p=.032−5.0 (−7.5; −2.4) p=.0002SDAI2.7 (1.9; 3.5) p<.00012.4 (1.4; 3.4) p<.00010.5 (−0.2; 1.2)p=.14−0.3 (−1.3; 0.7)p=.60−2.2 (−3.1; −1.3) p<.0001−1.9 (−3.0; 0.8) p=.0006

1Estimates of group differences (least squares means (95% CI)).

aSum score of synovitis, osteitis and tenosynovitis

Conclusion:

T2T-based treatment escalations to biologics compared to csDMARD-escalations more effectively improved MRI inflammation, physical function and disease activity. Further optimization of the treatment in RA patients in clinical remission may improve long-term outcomes.

References:

[1]Møller-Bisgaard et al. JAMA 2019

Disclosure of Interests:

Signe Møller-Bisgaard Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Consultant of: BMS, Speakers bureau: BMS, Celgene, Pfizer, Kim Hørslev-Petersen: None declared, Bo Ejbjerg: None declared, Merete L. Hetland Grant/research support from: BMS, MSD, AbbVie, Roche, Novartis, Biogen and Pfizer, Consultant of: Eli Lilly, Speakers bureau: Orion Pharma, Biogen, Pfizer, CellTrion, Merck and Samsung Bioepis, Robin Christensen: None declared, Lykke Ørnbjerg: None declared, Daniel Glinatsi: None declared, Jakob Møllenbach Møller: None declared, Mikael Boesen Consultant of: AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Esaote, Glenmark, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Paid instructor for: IAG, Image Analysis Group, AbbVie, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, esaote, Glenmark, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB (scientific advisor)., Speakers bureau: Eli Lilly, Esaote, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Kristian Stengaard-Pedersen: None declared, Ole Rintek Madsen: None declared, Bente Jensen: None declared, Jan Villadsen: None declared, Ellen Margrethe Hauge: None declared, Philip Bennett: None declared, Oliver Hendricks: None declared, Karsten Asmussen: None declared, Marcin Kowalski: None declared, Hanne Merete Lindegaard: None declared, Henning Bliddal Grant/research support from: received research grant fra NOVO Nordic, Consultant of: consultant fee fra NOVO Nordic, Niels Steen Krogh: None declared, Torkell Ellingsen: None declared, Agnete Nielsen: None declared, Anne Grethe Jurik: None declared, Lone Balding: None declared, Henrik Thomsen: None declared, Mikkel Ǿstergaard Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Merck, and Novartis, Consultant of: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and UCB, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi, and UCB

First-trimester intrauterine hematoma and pregnancy complications

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether sonographic diagnosis of intrauterine hematoma (IUH) in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with first-trimester miscarriage and antenatal, delivery and neonatal complications.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational cohort study of women with an intrauterine singleton pregnancy between 5 and 14 weeks' gestation recruited at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, London, UK, between March 2014 and March 2016. Participants underwent serial ultrasound examinations in the first trimester, and the presence, location, size and persistence of any IUH was evaluated. First-trimester miscarriage was defined as pregnancy loss before 14 weeks' gestation. Clinical symptoms, including pelvic pain and vaginal bleeding, were recorded at each visit using validated symptom scores. Antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes were obtained from hospital records. Logistic regression analysis and the chi-square test were used to assess the association between the presence and features of IUH and the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcome. Odds ratios (OR) were first adjusted for maternal age (aOR) and then further adjusted for the presence of vaginal bleeding or pelvic pain in the first trimester.

RESULTS

Of 1003 women recruited to the study, 946 were included in the final analysis and of these, 268 (28.3%) were diagnosed with an IUH in the first trimester. The presence of IUH was associated with the incidence of preterm birth (aOR, 1.94 (95% CI, 1.07-3.52)), but no other individual or overall antenatal, delivery or neonatal complications. No association was found between the presence of IUH in the first trimester and first-trimester miscarriage (aOR, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.44-1.50)). These findings were independent of the absolute size of the hematoma and the presence of vaginal bleeding or pelvic pain in the first trimester. When IUH was present in the first trimester, there was no association between its size, content or position in relation to the gestational sac and overall antenatal, delivery and neonatal complications. Diagnosis of a retroplacental IUH was associated with an increased risk of overall antenatal complications (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that there is no association between the presence of IUH in the first trimester and first-trimester miscarriage. However, an association with preterm birth, independently of the presence of symptoms of pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding, is evident. Women diagnosed with IUH in the first trimester should be counseled about their increased risk of preterm birth and possibly be offered increased surveillance during the course of their pregnancy. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

MAVRIC: a multicenter randomized controlled trial of transabdominal vs transvaginal cervical cerclage

BACKGROUND

Vaginal cerclage (a suture around the cervix) commonly is placed in women with recurrent pregnancy loss. These women may experience late miscarriage or extreme preterm delivery, despite being treated with cerclage. Transabdominal cerclage has been advocated after failed cerclage, although its efficacy is unproved by randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to compare transabdominal cerclage or high vaginal cerclage with low vaginal cerclage in women with a history of failed cerclage. Our primary outcome was delivery at <32 completed weeks of pregnancy.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a multicenter randomized controlled trial. Women were assigned randomly (1:1:1) to receive transabdominal cerclage, high vaginal cerclage, or low vaginal cerclage either before conception or at <14 weeks of gestation.

RESULTS

The data for 111 of 139 women who were recruited and who conceived were analyzed: 39 had transabdominal cerclage; 39 had high vaginal cerclage, and 33 had low vaginal cerclage. Rates of preterm birth at <32 weeks of gestation were significantly lower in women who received transabdominal cerclage compared with low vaginal cerclage (8% [3/39] vs 33% [11/33]; relative risk, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.76; P=.0157). The number needed to treat to prevent 1 preterm birth was 3.9 (95% confidence interval, 2.32-12.1). There was no difference in preterm birth rates between high and low vaginal cerclage (38% [15/39] vs 33% [11/33]; relative risk, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-2.16; P=.81). No neonatal deaths occurred. In an exploratory analysis, women with transabdominal cerclage had fewer fetal losses compared with low vaginal cerclage (3% [1/39] vs 21% [7/33]; relative risk, 0.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.016-0.93; P=.02). The number needed to treat to prevent 1 fetal loss was 5.3 (95% confidence interval, 2.9-26).

CONCLUSION

Transabdominal cerclage is the treatment of choice for women with failed vaginal cerclage. It is superior to low vaginal cerclage in the reduction of risk of early preterm birth and fetal loss in women with previous failed vaginal cerclage. High vaginal cerclage does not confer this benefit. The numbers needed to treat are sufficiently low to justify transabdominal surgery and cesarean delivery required in this select cohort.

Incidence and mortality from cervical cancer and other malignancies after treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature

BACKGROUND

Although local treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) are highly effective, it has been reported that treated women remain at increased risk of cervical and other cancers. Our aim is to explore the risk of developing or dying from cervical cancer and other human papillomavirus (HPV)- and non-HPV-related malignancies after CIN treatment and infer its magnitude compared with the general population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Eligibility criteria: Studies with registry-based follow-up reporting cancer incidence or mortality after CIN treatment.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Summary effects were estimated using random-effects models.

OUTCOMES

Incidence rate of cervical cancer among women treated for CIN (per 100 000 woman-years). Relative risk (RR) of cervical cancer, other HPV-related anogenital tract cancer (vagina, vulva, anus), any cancer, and mortality, for women treated for CIN versus the general population.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven studies were eligible. The incidence rate for cervical cancer after CIN treatment was 39 per 100 000 woman-years (95% confidence interval 22-69). The RR of cervical cancer was elevated compared with the general population (3.30, 2.57-4.24; P < 0.001). The RR was higher for women more than 50 years old and remained elevated for at least 20 years after treatment. The RR of vaginal (10.84, 5.58-21.10; P < 0.001), vulvar (3.34, 2.39-4.67; P < 0.001), and anal cancer (5.11, 2.73-9.55; P < 0.001) was also higher. Mortality from cervical/vaginal cancer was elevated, but our estimate was more uncertain (RR 5.04, 0.69-36.94; P = 0.073).

CONCLUSIONS

Women treated for CIN have a considerably higher risk to be later diagnosed with cervical and other HPV-related cancers compared with the general population. The higher risk of cervical cancer lasts for at least 20 years after treatment and is higher for women more than 50 years of age. Prolonged follow-up beyond the last screening round may be warranted for previously treated women.

Early-pregnancy events and subsequent antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess prospectively the association between pelvic pain, vaginal bleeding, and nausea and vomiting occurring in the first trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of later adverse pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational cohort study of consecutive women with confirmed intrauterine singleton pregnancy between 5 and 14 weeks' gestation recruited at Queen Charlotte's & Chelsea Hospital, London, UK, from March 2014 to March 2016. Serial ultrasound scans were performed in the first trimester. Participants completed validated symptom scores for vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, and nausea and vomiting. The key symptom of interest was any pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding during the first trimester. Pregnancies were followed up until the final outcome was known. Antenatal, delivery and neonatal outcomes were obtained from hospital records. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between first-trimester symptoms and pregnancy complications by calculating adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with correction for maternal age.

RESULTS

Of 1003 women recruited, 847 pregnancies were included in the final analysis following exclusion of cases due to first-trimester miscarriage (n = 99), termination of pregnancy (n = 20), loss to follow-up (n = 32) or withdrawal from the study (n = 5). Adverse antenatal complications were observed in 166/645 (26%) women with pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester (aOR = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.17-2.76) and in 30/181 (17%) women with no symptoms. Neonatal complications were observed in 66/634 (10%) women with and 11/176 (6%) without pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding (aOR = 1.73; 95% CI, 0.89-3.36). Delivery complications were observed in 402/615 (65%) women with and 110/174 (63%) without pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding during the first trimester (aOR = 1.16; 95% CI, 0.81-1.65). For 18 of 20 individual antenatal complications evaluated, incidence was higher among women with pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding, despite the overall incidences being low. Nausea and vomiting in pregnancy showed little association with adverse pregnancy outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that there is an increased incidence of antenatal complications in women experiencing pelvic pain and/or vaginal bleeding in the first trimester. This should be considered when advising women attending early-pregnancy units. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Discovery of a CD10-negative B-progenitor in human fetal life identifies unique ontogeny-related developmental programs

Human lymphopoiesis is a dynamic lifelong process that starts in utero 6 weeks postconception. Although fetal B-lymphopoiesis remains poorly defined, it is key to understanding leukemia initiation in early life. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the human fetal B-cell developmental hierarchy. We report the presence in fetal tissues of 2 distinct CD19+ B-progenitors, an adult-type CD10+ve ProB-progenitor and a new CD10-ve PreProB-progenitor, and describe their molecular and functional characteristics. PreProB-progenitors and ProB-progenitors appear early in the first trimester in embryonic liver, followed by a sustained second wave of B-progenitor development in fetal bone marrow (BM), where together they form >40% of the total hematopoietic stem cell/progenitor pool. Almost one-third of fetal B-progenitors are CD10-ve PreProB-progenitors, whereas, by contrast, PreProB-progenitors are almost undetectable (0.53% ± 0.24%) in adult BM. Single-cell transcriptomics and functional assays place fetal PreProB-progenitors upstream of ProB-progenitors, identifying them as the first B-lymphoid-restricted progenitor in human fetal life. Although fetal BM PreProB-progenitors and ProB-progenitors both give rise solely to B-lineage cells, they are transcriptionally distinct. As with their fetal counterparts, adult BM PreProB-progenitors give rise only to B-lineage cells in vitro and express the expected B-lineage gene expression program. However, fetal PreProB-progenitors display a distinct, ontogeny-related gene expression pattern that is not seen in adult PreProB-progenitors, and they share transcriptomic signatures with CD10-ve B-progenitor infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia blast cells. These data identify PreProB-progenitors as the earliest B-lymphoid-restricted progenitor in human fetal life and suggest that this fetal-restricted committed B-progenitor might provide a permissive cellular context for prenatal B-progenitor leukemia initiation.

Obstetric outcomes after conservative treatment for cervical intraepithelial lesions and early invasive disease

BACKGROUND

The mean age of women undergoing local treatment for pre-invasive cervical disease (cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia; CIN) or early cervical cancer (stage IA1) is around their 30s and similar to the age of women having their first child. Local cervical treatment has been correlated to adverse reproductive morbidity in a subsequent pregnancy, however, published studies and meta-analyses have reached contradictory conclusions.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of local cervical treatment for CIN and early cervical cancer on obstetric outcomes (after 24 weeks of gestation) and to correlate these to the cone depth and comparison group used.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; the Cochrane Library, 2017, Issue 5), MEDLINE (up to June week 4, 2017) and Embase (up to week 26, 2017). In an attempt to identify articles missed by the search or unpublished data, we contacted experts in the field and we handsearched the references of the retrieved articles and conference proceedings.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all studies reporting on obstetric outcomes (more than 24 weeks of gestation) in women with or without a previous local cervical treatment for any grade of CIN or early cervical cancer (stage IA1). Treatment included both excisional and ablative methods. We excluded studies that had no untreated reference population, reported outcomes in women who had undergone treatment during pregnancy or had a high-risk treated or comparison group, or both DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We classified studies according to the type of treatment and the obstetric endpoint. Studies were classified according to method and obstetric endpoint. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model and inverse variance. Inter-study heterogeneity was assessed with I2 statistics. We assessed maternal outcomes that included preterm birth (PTB) (spontaneous and threatened), preterm premature rupture of the membranes (pPROM), chorioamnionitis, mode of delivery, length of labour, induction of delivery, oxytocin use, haemorrhage, analgesia, cervical cerclage and cervical stenosis. The neonatal outcomes included low birth weight (LBW), neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, stillbirth, perinatal mortality and Apgar scores.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 69 studies (6,357,823 pregnancies: 65,098 pregnancies of treated and 6,292,725 pregnancies of untreated women). Many of the studies included only small numbers of women, were of heterogenous design and in their majority retrospective and therefore at high risk of bias. Many outcomes were assessed to be of low or very low quality (GRADE assessment) and therefore results should be interpreted with caution. Women who had treatment were at increased overall risk of preterm birth (PTB) (less than 37 weeks) (10.7% versus 5.4%, RR 1.75, 95% CI 1.57 to 1.96, 59 studies, 5,242,917 participants, very low quality), severe (less than 32 to 34 weeks) (3.5% versus 1.4%, RR 2.25, 95% CI 1.79 to 2.82), 24 studies, 3,793,874 participants, very low quality), and extreme prematurity (less than 28 to 30 weeks) (1.0% versus 0.3%, (RR 2.23, 95% CI 1.55 to 3.22, 8 studies, 3,910,629 participants, very low quality), as compared to women who had no treatment.The risk of overall prematurity was higher for excisional (excision versus no treatment: 11.2% versus 5.5%, RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.64 to 2.12, 53 studies, 4,599,416 participants) than ablative (ablation versus no treatment: 7.7% versus 4.6%, RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.52, 14 studies, 602,370 participants) treatments and the effect was higher for more radical excisional techniques (less than 37 weeks: cold knife conisation (CKC) (RR 2.70, 95% CI 2.14 to 3.40, 12 studies, 39,102 participants), laser conisation (LC) (RR 2.11, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.54, 9 studies, 1509 participants), large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ) (RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.81, 25 studies, 1,445,104 participants). Repeat treatment multiplied the risk of overall prematurity (repeat versus no treatment: 13.2% versus 4.1%, RR 3.78, 95% CI 2.65 to 5.39, 11 studies, 1,317,284 participants, very low quality). The risk of overall prematurity increased with increasing cone depth (less than 10 mm to 12 mm versus no treatment: 7.1% versus 3.4%, RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.18, 8 studies, 550,929 participants, very low quality; more than 10 mm to 12 mm versus no treatment: 9.8% versus 3.4%, RR 1.93, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.31, 8 studies, 552,711 participants, low quality; more than 15 mm to 17 mm versus no treatment: 10.1 versus 3.4%, RR 2.77, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.93, 4 studies, 544,986 participants, very low quality; 20 mm or more versus no treatment: 10.2% versus 3.4%, RR 4.91, 95% CI 2.06 to 11.68, 3 studies, 543,750 participants, very low quality). The comparison group affected the magnitude of effect that was higher for external, followed by internal comparators and ultimately women with disease, but no treatment. Untreated women with disease and the pre-treatment pregnancies of the women who were treated subsequently had higher risk of overall prematurity than the general population (5.9% versus 5.6%, RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.34, 15 studies, 4,357,998 participants, very low quality).pPROM (6.1% versus 3.4%, RR 2.36, 95% CI 1.76 to 3.17, 21 studies, 477,011 participants, very low quality), low birth weight (7.9% versus 3.7%, RR 1.81, 95% CI 1.58 to 2.07, 30 studies, 1,348,206 participants, very low quality), NICU admission rate (12.6% versus 8.9%, RR 1.45, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.81, 8 studies, 2557 participants, low quality) and perinatal mortality (0.9% versus 0.7%, RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.03, 23 studies, 1,659,433 participants, low quality) were also increased after treatment.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Women with CIN have a higher baseline risk for prematurity. Excisional and ablative treatment appears to further increases that risk. The frequency and severity of adverse sequelae increases with increasing cone depth and is higher for excision than it is for ablation. However, the results should be interpreted with caution as they were based on low or very low quality (GRADE assessment) observational studies, most of which were retrospective.

Obesity and gynaecological and obstetric conditions: umbrella review of the literature

Objective To study the strength and validity of associations between adiposity and risk of any type of obstetric or gynaecological conditions.Design An umbrella review of meta-analyses.Data sources PubMed, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, manual screening of references for systematic reviews or meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies evaluating the association between adiposity and risk of any obstetrical or gynaecological outcome.Main outcomes Meta-analyses of cohort studies on associations between indices of adiposity and obstetric and gynaecological outcomes.Data synthesis Evidence from observational studies was graded into strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak based on the significance of the random effects summary estimate and the largest study in the included meta-analysis, the number of cases, heterogeneity between studies, 95% prediction intervals, small study effects, excess significance bias, and sensitivity analysis with credibility ceilings. Interventional meta-analyses were assessed separately.Results 156 meta-analyses of observational studies were included, investigating associations between adiposity and risk of 84 obstetric or gynaecological outcomes. Of the 144 meta-analyses that included cohort studies, only 11 (8%) had strong evidence for eight outcomes: adiposity was associated with a higher risk of endometrial cancer, ovarian cancer, antenatal depression, total and emergency caesarean section, pre-eclampsia, fetal macrosomia, and low Apgar score. The summary effect estimates ranged from 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.29) for an association between a 0.1 unit increase in waist to hip ratio and risk endometrial cancer up to 4.14 (3.61 to 4.75) for risk of pre-eclampsia for BMI >35 compared with <25. Only three out of these eight outcomes were also assessed in meta-analyses of trials evaluating weight loss interventions. These interventions significantly reduced the risk of caesarean section and pre-eclampsia, whereas there was no evidence of association with fetal macrosomia.Conclusions Although the associations between adiposity and obstetric and gynaecological outcomes have been extensively studied, only a minority were considered strong and without hints of bias.

Preterm birth prevention-Time to PROGRESS beyond progesterone

In a Perspective, Jane Norman and Phillip Bennett argue that it is time to explore alternatives to progesterone for preventing preterm birth.

Estimating the risk of adverse birth outcomes in pregnant women undergoing non-obstetric surgery using routinely collected NHS data: an observational study

Background

Previous research suggests that non-obstetric surgery is carried out in 1–2% of all pregnancies. However, there is limited evidence quantifying the associated risks. Furthermore, of the evidence available, none relates directly to outcomes in the UK, and there are no current NHS guidelines regarding non-obstetric surgery in pregnant women.

Objectives

To estimate the risk of adverse birth outcomes of pregnancies in which non-obstetric surgery was or was not carried out. To further analyse common procedure groups.

Data Source

Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) maternity data collected between 2002–3 and 2011–12.

Main outcomes

Spontaneous abortion, preterm delivery, maternal death, caesarean delivery, long inpatient stay, stillbirth and low birthweight.

Methods

We utilised HES, an administrative database that includes records of all patient admissions and day cases in all English NHS hospitals. We analysed HES maternity data collected between 2002–3 and 2011–12, and identified pregnancies in which non-obstetric surgery was carried out. We used logistic regression models to determine the adjusted relative risk and attributable risk of non-obstetric surgical procedures for adverse birth outcomes and the number needed to harm.

Results

We identified 6,486,280 pregnancies, in 47,628 of which non-obstetric surgery was carried out. In comparison with pregnancies in which surgery was not carried out, we found that non-obstetric surgery was associated with a higher risk of adverse birth outcomes, although the attributable risk was generally low. We estimated that for every 287 pregnancies in which a surgical operation was carried out there was one additional stillbirth; for every 31 operations there was one additional preterm delivery; for every 25 operations there was one additional caesarean section; for every 50 operations there was one additional long inpatient stay; and for every 39 operations there was one additional low-birthweight baby.

Limitations

We have no means of disentangling the effect of the surgery from the effect of the underlying condition itself. Many spontaneous abortions will not be associated with a hospital admission and, therefore, will not be included in our analysis. A spontaneous abortion may be more likely to be reported if it occurs during the same hospital admission as the procedure, and this could account for the associated increased risk with surgery during pregnancy. There are missing values of key data items to determine parity, gestational age, birthweight and stillbirth.

Conclusions

This is the first study to report the risk of adverse birth outcomes following non-obstetric surgery during pregnancy across NHS hospitals in England. We have no means of disentangling the effect of the surgery from the effect of the underlying condition itself. Our observational study can never attribute a causal relationship between surgery and adverse birth outcomes, and we were unable to determine the risk of not undergoing surgery where surgery was clinically indicated. We have some reservations over associations of risk factors with spontaneous abortion because of potential ascertainment bias. However, we believe that our findings and, in particular, the numbers needed to harm improve on previous research, utilise a more recent and larger data set based on UK practices, and are useful reference points for any discussion of risk with prospective patients. The risk of adverse birth outcomes in pregnant women undergoing non-obstetric surgery is relatively low, confirming that surgical procedures during pregnancy are generally safe.

Future work

Further evaluation of the association of non-obstetric surgery and spontaneous abortion. Evaluation of the impact of non-obstetric surgery on the newborn (e.g. neonatal intensive care unit admission, prolonged length of neonatal stay, neonatal death).

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Adverse obstetric outcomes after local treatment for cervical preinvasive and early invasive disease according to cone depth: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

 To assess the effect of treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) on obstetric outcomes and to correlate this with cone depth and comparison group used.

DESIGN

 Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

 CENTRAL, Medline, Embase from 1948 to April 2016 were searched for studies assessing obstetric outcomes in women with or without previous local cervical treatment.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

 Independent reviewers extracted the data and performed quality assessment using the Newcastle-Ottawa criteria. Studies were classified according to method and obstetric endpoint. Pooled risk ratios were calculated with a random effect model and inverse variance. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed with I(2) statistics.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

 Obstetric outcomes comprised preterm birth (including spontaneous and threatened), premature rupture of the membranes, chorioamnionitis, mode of delivery, length of labour, induction of delivery, oxytocin use, haemorrhage, analgesia, cervical cerclage, and cervical stenosis. Neonatal outcomes comprised low birth weight, admission to neonatal intensive care, stillbirth, APGAR scores, and perinatal mortality.

RESULTS

 71 studies were included (6 338 982 participants: 65 082 treated/6 292 563 untreated). Treatment significantly increased the risk of overall (<37 weeks; 10.7% v 5.4%; relative risk 1.78, 95% confidence interval 1.60 to 1.98), severe (<32-34 weeks; 3.5% v 1.4%; 2.40, 1.92 to 2.99), and extreme (<28-30 weeks; 1.0% v 0.3%; 2.54, 1.77 to 3.63) preterm birth. Techniques removing or ablating more tissue were associated with worse outcomes. Relative risks for delivery at <37 weeks were 2.70 (2.14 to 3.40) for cold knife conisation, 2.11 (1.26 to 3.54) for laser conisation, 2.02 (1.60 to 2.55) for excision not otherwise specified, 1.56 (1.36 to 1.79) for large loop excision of the transformation zone, and 1.46 (1.27 to 1.66) for ablation not otherwise specified. Compared with no treatment, the risk of preterm birth was higher in women who had undergone more than one treatment (13.2% v 4.1%; 3.78, 2.65 to 5.39) and with increasing cone depth (≤10-12 mm; 7.1% v 3.4%; 1.54, 1.09 to 2.18; ≥10-12 mm: 9.8% v 3.4%, 1.93, 1.62 to 2.31; ≥15-17 mm: 10.1% v 3.4%; 2.77, 1.95 to 3.93; ≥20 mm: 10.2% v 3.4%; 4.91, 2.06 to 11.68). The choice of comparison group affected the magnitude of effect. This was higher for external comparators, followed by internal comparators, and ultimately women with disease who did not undergo treatment. In women with untreated CIN and in pregnancies before treatment, the risk of preterm birth was higher than the risk in the general population (5.9% v 5.6%; 1.24, 1.14 to 1.35). Spontaneous preterm birth, premature rupture of the membranes, chorioamnionitis, low birth weight, admission to neonatal intensive care, and perinatal mortality were also significantly increased after treatment. :

CONCLUSIONS

 Women with CIN have a higher baseline risk for prematurity. Excisional and ablative treatment further increases that risk. The frequency and severity of adverse sequelae increases with increasing cone depth and is higher for excision than for ablation.

Ten-year follow-up of two cohorts with an increased risk of variant CJD: donors to individuals who later developed variant CJD and other recipients of these at-risk donors

BACKGROUND

Transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) through blood transfusion is implicated in three deaths and one asymptomatic infection. Based on this evidence, individuals assessed to be at increased risk of vCJD through donating blood transfused to individuals who later developed vCJD, or through being other recipients of such donors, are followed up to further understand the risks of vCJD transmission through blood.

OBJECTIVES

To provide a ten-year follow-up of these at-risk cohorts.

METHODS

Blood donors to patients who later died from vCJD were identified by the Transfusion Medicine Epidemiological Review (TMER) study. A reverse risk probability assessment quantified the risk of blood transfusion or exposure through diet as the source of vCJD in the recipients. Donors to these recipients, and these donors' other recipients, with a probability risk above 1%, are classified as at increased risk of vCJD for public health purposes. These cohorts are monitored for any vCJD occurrences.

RESULTS

A total of 112 donors and 33 other recipients of their donated blood have been classified as at increased risk. After 2397 and 492 vCJD-free years of follow-up, respectively, no deaths in either at-risk cohort were of vCJD-related causes.

CONCLUSIONS

The at-risk cohorts have survived disease-free far longer than the estimated incubation time for dietary-acquired vCJD (donors) and transfusion-acquired disease (other recipients). However, due to our still limited understanding of, and a lack of a reliable test for, asymptomatic vCJD infection, public health follow-up is necessary for continued monitoring of at-risk cohorts.

Are fetuses that fail to achieve their growth potential at increased risk of intrapartum compromise?

OBJECTIVE

The true growth potential of a fetus is difficult to predict but recently a new definition, independent of fetal weight, using cerebroplacental (cerebro-umbilical) ratio (CPR) < 0.6765 multiples of the median (MoM), was reported. We applied this definition to a cohort of low-risk pregnancies recruited prospectively to determine if fetuses with CPR < 0.6765 are at increased risk of developing signs of intrapartum fetal compromise.

METHODS

Recruitment to this prospective observational study took place between March 2011 and March 2014. All women with low-risk singleton pregnancies at term were eligible. Women with known or suspected placental dysfunction were excluded, as were women with fetuses with an estimated fetal weight < 10(th) centile. All participants underwent ultrasound examination prior to active labor (≤ 4 cm cervical dilatation), during which fetal biometry as well as umbilical artery and fetal middle cerebral artery blood flow were assessed. Following delivery, intrapartum and neonatal outcomes were compared between fetuses that had a CPR < 0.6765 MoM and those that had a CPR ≥ 0.6765 MoM.

RESULTS

In total, 775 women were recruited. Fetuses with CPR < 0.6765 MoM were significantly more likely to require Cesarean delivery because of presumed fetal compromise (P < 0.001). These fetuses were also at increased risk of compromise at any time during labor and were less likely to be delivered vaginally, spontaneously or otherwise, than were those with CPR ≥ 0.6765 MoM. CPR < 0.6765 MoM gave a positive predictive value (PPV) for Cesarean delivery because of presumed fetal compromise of 36.7% and a negative predictive value of 88.7%, with a sensitivity of 18% and a specificity of 95.4%.

CONCLUSION

Fetuses that failed to achieve their growth potential (defined as CPR < 0.6765 MoM) were at increased risk of intrapartum compromise and were less likely to be delivered vaginally. However, a low negative predictive value was observed for fetal compromise and further studies are required to support the translation of this technique into clinical practice.

Fertility and early pregnancy outcomes after conservative treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia

BACKGROUND

Cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) typically occurs in young women of reproductive age. Although several studies have reported the impact that cervical conservative treatment may have on obstetric outcomes, there is much less evidence for fertility and early pregnancy outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of cervical treatment for CIN (excisional or ablative) on fertility and early pregnancy outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched in January 2015 the following databases: the Cochrane Gynaecological Cancer Specialised Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; The Cochrane Library, Issue 12, 2014), MEDLINE (up to November week 3, 2014) and EMBASE (up to week 52, 2014).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all studies reporting on fertility and early pregnancy outcomes (less than 24 weeks of gestation) in women with a history of CIN treatment (excisional or ablative) as compared to women that had not received treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Studies were classified according to the treatment method used and the fertility or early pregnancy endpoint. Pooled risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model and inter-study heterogeneity was assessed with I(2). Two review authors (MK, AM) independently assessed the eligibility of retrieved papers and risk of bias. The two review authors then compared their results and any disagreements were resolved by discussion. If still unresolved, a third review author (MA) was involved until consensus was reached.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifteen studies (2,223,592 participants - 25,008 treated and 2,198,584 untreated) that fulfilled the inclusion criteria for this review were identified from the literature search. The meta-analysis demonstrated that treatment for CIN did not adversely affect the chances of conception. The overall pregnancy rate was higher for treated (43%) versus untreated women (38%; RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.64; 4 studies, 38,050 participants, very low quality), although the inter-study heterogeneity was considerable (P < 0.01). The pregnancy rates in treated and untreated women with an intention to conceive (88% versus 95%, RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.08; 2 studies, 70 participants, very low quality) and the number of women requiring more than 12 months to conceive (14% versus 9%, RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.37; 3 studies, 1348 participants, very low quality) were no different. Although the total miscarriage rate (4.6% versus 2.8%, RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.21; 10 studies, 39,504 participants, low quality) and first trimester miscarriage rate (9.8% versus 8.4%, RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.69, 4 studies, 1103 participants, low quality) was similar for treated and untreated women, CIN treatment was associated with an increased risk of second trimester miscarriage, (1.6% versus 0.4%, RR 2.60, 95% CI 1.45 to 4.67; 8 studies, 2,182,268 participants, low quality). The number of ectopic pregnancies (1.6% versus 0.8%, RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.50 to 2.39; 6 studies, 38,193 participants, low quality) and terminations (12.2% versus 7.4%, RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.22; 7 studies, 38,208 participants, low quality) were also higher in treated women.The results should be interpreted with caution. The included studies were often small with heterogenous design. Most of these studies were retrospective and of low or very low quality (GRADE assessment) and were therefore prone to bias. Subgroup analyses for the individual treatment methods and comparison groups and analysis to stratify for the cone length was not possible.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis suggests that treatment for CIN does not adversely affect fertility, although treatment was associated with an increased risk of miscarriage in the second trimester. These results should be interpreted with caution as the included studies were non-randomised and many were of low or very low quality and therefore at high risk of bias. Research should explore mechanisms that may explain the increase in mid-trimester miscarriage risk and stratify this impact of treatment by the length of the cone and the treatment method used.

The effect of gestational age and cervical length measurements in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in twin pregnancies: an individual patient level meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of gestational age (GA) and cervical length (CL) measurements at transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) in the prediction of preterm birth in twin pregnancy.

DESIGN

Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis.

SETTING

International multicentre study.

POPULATION

Asymptomatic twin pregnancy.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE searches were performed and IPD obtained from authors of relevant studies. Multinomial logistic regression analysis determined probabilities for birth at ≤28(+0) , 28(+1) to 32(+0) , 32(+1) to 36(+0) , and ≥36(+1) weeks as a function of GA at screening and CL measurements.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predicted probabilities for preterm birth at ≤28(+0) , 28(+1) to 32(+0) , and 32(+1) to 36(+0) .

RESULTS

A total of 6188 CL measurements were performed on 4409 twin pregnancies in 12 studies. Both GA at screening and CL had a significant and non-linear effect on GA at birth. The best prediction of birth at ≤28(+0) weeks was provided by screening at ≤18(+0) weeks (P < 0.001), whereas the best prediction of birth between 28(+1) and 36(+0) weeks was provided by screening at ≥24(+0) weeks (P < 0.001). Negative prediction value of 100% for birth at ≤28(+0) weeks is achieved at CL 65 mm and 43 mm at ultrasound GA at ≤18(+0) weeks and at 22(+1) to 24(+0) weeks, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In twin pregnancies, prediction of preterm birth depends on both CL and the GA at screening. When CL is <30 mm, screening at ≤18(+0) weeks is most predictive for birth at ≤28(+0) weeks. Later screening at >22(+0) weeks is most predictive of delivery at 28(+1) to 36(+0) weeks. In twins, we recommend CL screening in twins to commence from ≤18(+0) weeks.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

An individual patient meta-analysis assessing gestation and CL in the prediction of preterm birth in twins.