Mapping the incidence rate of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

With more than 1.2 million illnesses and 29,000 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem. Effective control of the disease would benefit from an understanding of the subnational geospatial distribution of the disease incidence.

METHOD

We collated records of the incidence rate of typhoid fever confirmed by culture of blood in Africa from 2000 to 2022. We estimated the typhoid incidence rate for sub-Saharan Africa on 20 km × 20 km grids by exploring the association with geospatial covariates representing access to improved water and sanitation, health conditions of the population, and environmental conditions.

RESULTS

We identified six published articles and one pre-print representing incidence rate estimates in 22 sites in 2000-2022. Estimated incidence rates showed geospatial variation at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The incidence rate was high in Western and Eastern African subregions followed by Southern and Middle African subregions. By age, the incidence rate was highest among 5-14 yo followed by 2-4 yo, > 14 yo, and 0-1 yo. When aggregated across all age classes and grids that comprise each country, predicted incidence rates ranged from 43.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 591.2) in Zimbabwe to 2,957.8 (95% CI: 20.8 to 4,245.2) in South Sudan per 100,000 person-years. Sub-national heterogeneity was evident with the coefficient of variation at the 20 km × 20 km grid-level ranging from 0.7 to 3.3 and was generally lower in high-incidence countries and widely varying in low-incidence countries.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides estimates of 20 km × 20 km incidence rate of typhoid fever across sub-Saharan Africa based on data collected from 2000 through 2020. Increased understanding of the subnational geospatial variation of typhoid fever in Africa may inform more effective intervention programs by better targeting resources to heterogeneously disturbed disease risk.

State transitions across the Strep A disease spectrum: scoping review and evidence gaps

The spectrum of diseases caused by Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A) ranges from superficial to serious life-threatening invasive infections. We conducted a scoping review of published articles between 1980 and 2021 to synthesize evidence of state transitions across the Strep A disease spectrum. We identified 175 articles reporting 262 distinct observations of Strep A disease state transitions. Among the included articles, the transition from an invasive or toxin-mediated disease state to another disease state (i.e., to recurrent ARF, RHD or death) was described 115 times (43.9% of all included transition pairs) while the transition to and from locally invasive category was the lowest (n = 7; 0.02%). Transitions from well to any other state was most frequently reported (49%) whereas a relatively higher number of studies (n = 71) reported transition from invasive disease to death. Transitions from any disease state to locally invasive, Strep A pharyngitis to invasive disease, and chronic kidney disease to death were lacking. Transitions related to severe invasive diseases were more frequently reported than superficial ones. Most evidence originated from high-income countries and there is a critical need for new studies in low- and middle-income countries to infer the state transitions across the Strep A disease spectrum in these high-burden settings.

Occurrence of Typhoid Fever Complications and Their Relation to Duration of Illness Preceding Hospitalization: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Complications from typhoid fever disease have been estimated to occur in 10%-15% of hospitalized patients, with evidence of a higher risk in children and when delaying the implementation of effective antimicrobial treatment. We estimated the prevalence of complications in hospitalized patients with culture-confirmed typhoid fever and the effects of delaying the implementation of effective antimicrobial treatment and age on the prevalence and risk of complications.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed using studies in the PubMed database. We rated risk of bias and conducted random-effects meta-analyses. Days of disease at hospitalization (DDA) was used as a surrogate for delaying the implementation of effective antimicrobial treatment. Analyses were stratified by DDA (DDA <10 versus ≥10 mean/median days of disease) and by age (children versus adults). Differences in risk were assessed using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Heterogeneity and publication bias were evaluated with the I2 value and funnel plot analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of complications estimated among hospitalized typhoid fever patients was 27% (95% CI, 21%-32%; I2 = 90.9%, P < .0001). Patients with a DDA ≥ 10 days presented higher prevalence (36% [95% CI, 29%-43%]) and three times greater risk of severe disease (OR, 3.00 [95% CI, 2.14-4.17]; P < .0001) than patients arriving earlier (16% [95% CI, 13%- 18%]). Difference in prevalence and risk by age groups were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis identified a higher overall prevalence of complications than previously reported and a strong association between duration of symptoms prior to hospitalization and risk of serious complications.

A Systematic Review of Typhoid Fever Occurrence in Africa

BACKGROUND

Our current understanding of the burden and distribution of typhoid fever in Africa relies on extrapolation of data from a small number of population-based incidence rate estimates. However, many other records on the occurrence of typhoid fever are available, and those records contain information that may enrich our understanding of the epidemiology of the disease as well as secular trends in reporting by country and over time.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of typhoid fever occurrence in Africa, published in PubMed, Embase, and ProMED (Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases).

RESULTS

At least one episode of culture-confirmed typhoid fever was reported in 42 of 57 African countries during 1900-2018. The number of reports on typhoid fever has increased over time in Africa and was highly heterogeneous between countries and over time. Outbreaks of typhoid fever were reported in 15 countries, with their frequency and size increasing over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should be made to leverage existing typhoid data, for example, by incorporating them into models for estimating the burden and distribution of typhoid fever.