SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe

AIMS

To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting.

METHODS

For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping.

FINDINGS

Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years).

INTERPRETATION

Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.

Mortality trends in type 1 diabetes: a multicountry analysis of six population-based cohorts

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Mortality has declined in people with type 1 diabetes in recent decades. We examined how the pattern of decline differs by country, age and sex, and how mortality trends in type 1 diabetes relate to trends in general population mortality.

METHODS

We assembled aggregate data on all-cause mortality during the period 2000-2016 in people with type 1 diabetes aged 0-79 years from Australia, Denmark, Latvia, Scotland, Spain (Catalonia) and the USA (Kaiser Permanente Northwest). Data were obtained from administrative sources, health insurance records and registries. All-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) comparing type 1 diabetes with the non-diabetic population, were modelled using Poisson regression, with age and calendar time as quantitative variables, describing the effects using restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. Mortality rates were standardised to the age distribution of the aggregate population with type 1 diabetes.

RESULTS

All six data sources showed a decline in age- and sex-standardised all-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes from 2000 to 2016 (or a subset thereof), with annual changes in mortality rates ranging from -2.1% (95% CI -2.8%, -1.3%) to -5.8% (95% CI -6.5%, -5.1%). All-cause mortality was higher for male individuals and for older individuals, but the rate of decline in mortality was generally unaffected by sex or age. SMR was higher in female individuals than male individuals, and appeared to peak at ages 40-70 years. SMR declined over time in Denmark, Scotland and Spain, while remaining stable in the other three data sources.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

All-cause mortality in people with type 1 diabetes has declined in recent years in most included populations, but improvements in mortality relative to the non-diabetic population are less consistent.

International comparison of glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes: an update and extension

AIMS

To update and extend a previous cross-sectional international comparison of glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

Data were obtained for 520,392 children and adults with type 1 diabetes from 17 population and five clinic-based data sources in countries or regions between 2016 and 2020. Median HbA_1c (IQR) and proportions of individuals with HbA_1c < 58 mmol/mol (<7.5%), 58-74 mmol/mol (7.5-8.9%) and ≥75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%) were compared between populations for individuals aged <15, 15-24 and ≥25 years. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of HbA_1c < 58 mmol/mol (<7.5%) relative to ≥58 mmol/mol (≥7.5%), stratified and adjusted for sex, age and data source. Where possible, changes in the proportion of individuals in each HbA_1c category compared to previous estimates were calculated.

RESULTS

Median HbA_1c varied from 55 to 79 mmol/mol (7.2 to 9.4%) across data sources and age groups so a pooled estimate was deemed inappropriate. OR (95% CI) for HbA_1c < 58 mmol/mol (<7.5%) were 0.91 (0.90-0.92) for women compared to men, 1.68 (1.65-1.71) for people aged <15 years and 0.81 (0.79-0.82) aged15-24 years compared to those aged ≥25 years. Differences between populations persisted after adjusting for sex, age and data source. In general, compared to our previous analysis, the proportion of people with an HbA_1c  < 58 mmol/l (<7.5%) increased and proportions of people with HbA_1c ≥ 75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%) decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

Glycaemic control of type 1 diabetes continues to vary substantially between age groups and data sources. While some improvement over time has been observed, glycaemic control remains sub-optimal for most people with Type 1 diabetes.

Trends in all-cause mortality among people with diagnosed diabetes in high-income settings: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data

BACKGROUND

Population-level trends in mortality among people with diabetes are inadequately described. We aimed to examine the magnitude and trends in excess all-cause mortality in people with diabetes.

METHODS

In this retrospective, multicountry analysis, we collected aggregate data from 19 data sources in 16 high-income countries or jurisdictions (in six data sources in Asia, eight in Europe, one from Australia, and four from North America) for the period from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2016, (or a subset of this period) on all-cause mortality in people with diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes. We collected data from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We estimated excess mortality using the standardised mortality ratio (SMR).

FINDINGS

In our dataset, there were approximately 21 million deaths during 0·5 billion person-years of follow-up among people with diagnosed diabetes. 17 of 19 data sources showed decreases in the age-standardised and sex-standardised mortality in people with diabetes, among which the annual percentage change in mortality ranged from -0·5% (95% CI -0·7 to -0·3) in Hungary to -4·2% (-4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong. The largest decreases in mortality were observed in east and southeast Asia, with a change of -4·2% (95% CI -4·3 to -4·1) in Hong Kong, -4·0% (-4·8 to -3·2) in South Korea, -3·5% (-4·0 to -3·0) in Taiwan, and -3·6% (-4·2 to -2·9) in Singapore. The annual estimated change in SMR between people with and without diabetes ranged from -3·0% (95% CI -3·0 to -2·9; US Medicare) to 1·6% (1·4 to 1·7; Lombardy, Italy). Among the 17 data sources with decreasing mortality among people with diabetes, we found a significant SMR increase in five data sources, no significant SMR change in four data sources, and a significant SMR decrease in eight data sources.

INTERPRETATION

All-cause mortality in diabetes has decreased in most of the high-income countries we assessed. In eight of 19 data sources analysed, mortality decreased more rapidly in people with diabetes than in those without diabetes. Further longevity gains will require continued improvement in prevention and management of diabetes.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings

BACKGROUND

Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time.

METHODS

In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time.

FINDINGS

Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions.

INTERPRETATION

The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

P5246Nationwide linked administrative data study to explore the variations in statistical classification, management and 30-day mortality of acute myocardial infarctions in Latvia

Background

According to statistics of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Latvia has one of the highest 30-day mortality for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The output data used in the calculation of this indicator was analysed at a hospital level to explain the causes of it.

Methods

Linked to Causes of death registry administrative reimbursement system data from 2014 to 2017 were analysed. Defined exclusion criteria were applied and 11675 emergency AMI admissions were indexed. As evaluation of the inter-hospital differences in non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) revealed significant inconsistency in statistical classification of non-ST elevation acute cardiac events, the 30-day mortality and the factors influencing it, was exclusively analysed for 9168 ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cases. The outcomes of different reperfusion scenarios were analysed for five groups of hospitals of size, location, the availability of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) and cardiac surgery - local hospitals without PCI, n=10 (non-PCI local), regional hospitals without PCI, n=5 (non-PCI regional), regional hospitals with part-time PCI, n=2 (PCI regional), university hospital with PCI, n=1 (PCI general univ.), university cardiology tertiary hospital with PCI, n=1 (PCI tertiary univ.). The multivariable logistic regression was employed to adjust the results for potential explanatory variables as patient age, gender, comorbidities (measured as Charlson index (Ch. index)), the distance between their residence and hospitals.

Results

30-day mortality for all indexed AMI admissions (17,4%) was in line with the value of the indicator in OECD reports. However only 21,5% of all cases have been coded as NSTEMI (12,2% mortality). The mortality of the patients with STEMI have reached 18,8% composed by mortality in range from 13,7% for patients directly admitted to hospitals having both PCI and cardiac surgery units to 23,7% for patients initially admitted to local hospitals. Significant variations in mortality between reperfusion scenarios as well as the variations in the frequency of application reperfusion methods between hospital groups were observed. Some variation in mortality between hospital groups persisted also after adjustment to the reperfusion therapy scenario and other potential confounders.

Distribution of STEMI patients

Conclusion

The improvement of statistical classification practice for NSTEMI is needed to measure the actual AMI mortality in Latvia. Although the 30-day mortality for AMI may be lower than internationally reported because of under-accounting of prognostically more favourable NSTEMI cases, it is still very high. Among patients with STEMI, there are wide inter-hospital variations in care and mortality. There is a substantial room for improvements in all types of hospitals to increase reperfusion rates and to reduce delays in initiation of it

Acknowledgement/Funding

University of Latvia/Centre for Disease Prevention and Control joint grant for project “Transparency for health care quality and efficiency”

Pre-existing diabetes mellitus and all-cause mortality in cancer patients: a register-based study in Latvia

BACKGROUND

Most studies from high income countries consistently report that preexisting diabetes reduces overall survival of cancer patients. We examined this association in a retrospective cohort study using two nation-wide population-based data sets in Latvia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The Cancer Register, linked with the Diabetes Register and Causes of Death Database, was the first data source used to select 22,936 men and 25,338 women with cancer diagnosed from 2009 to 2013. The follow-up period ended on 28 February 2015. The National Health Service data served as a second data source, which was used to select 10,130 men and 13,236 women with cancer as the main diagnosis, who were discharged from oncology hospitals from 2009 to 2012. Prescriptions of reimbursed antidiabetic medications indicated prior diabetes status. The follow-up period started at the date of discharge and ended on 31 December 2013. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess association between preexisting diabetes and all-cause mortality, adjusted for age.

RESULTS

Men with preexisting diabetes had better overall short-term survival: the age-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 0.86 (0.79-0.93) for the first year and 0.89 (0.80-0.98) for the first two years after cancer diagnosis according to the disease register and health service data, respectively. After three full follow-up years, their relative mortality increased, with an age-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.60 (1.28-1.99). Among women, preexisting diabetes was associated with slightly higher all-cause mortality during the entire follow-up period, with age-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.17 (1.10-1.24) for the disease register data and 1.11 (1.02-1.21) for the health service data.

CONCLUSION

Interestingly, we found better overall survival of diabetic men during the first years after cancer diagnosis. We hypothesize that access to health services may be advantageous to diabetic patients who are in close contact with the healthcare system.

Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Glycaemic control of Type 1 diabetes in clinical practice early in the 21st century: an international comparison

AIMS

Improving glycaemic control in people with Type 1 diabetes is known to reduce complications. Our aim was to compare glycaemic control among people with Type 1 diabetes using data gathered in regional or national registries.

METHODS

Data were obtained for children and/or adults with Type 1 diabetes from the following countries (or regions): Western Australia, Austria, Denmark, England, Champagne-Ardenne (France), Germany, Epirus, Thessaly and Thessaloniki (Greece), Galway (Ireland), several Italian regions, Latvia, Rotterdam (The Netherlands), Otago (New Zealand), Norway, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Sweden, Volyn (Ukraine), USA and Wales) from population or clinic-based registries. The sample size with available data varied from 355 to 173 880. Proportions with HbA1c < 58 mmol/mol (< 7.5%) and ≥ 75 mmol/mol (≥ 9.0%) were compared by age and sex.

RESULTS

Data were available for 324 501 people. The proportions with HbA1c 58 mmol/mol (< 7.5%) varied from 15.7% to 46.4% among 44 058 people aged < 15 years, from 8.9% to 49.5% among 50 766 people aged 15-24 years and from 20.5% to 53.6% among 229 677 people aged ≥ 25 years. Sex differences in glycaemic control were small. Proportions of people using insulin pumps varied between the 12 sources with data available.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that there are substantial variations in glycaemic control among people with Type 1 diabetes between the data sources and that there is room for improvement in all populations, especially in young adults.

Survival rates of familial and sporadic prostate cancer patients

AIM

To compare cancer-specific survival rates for familial and sporadic prostate cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Gleason score and age at diagnosis of familial group and sporadic group were compared by χ(2) and t-test. Cancer-specific survival rates were analyzed by the Kaplan - Meier method and compared by log-rank test. Statistically significant level was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Among 1175 prostate cancer patients, familial group consisted of 215 (18.3%) patients, the sporadic group consisted of 960 (81.7%) patients. The familial group patient's mean age at diagnosis (58.9 years old, 95% confidence interval (CI) 57.8-60.1) was significantly younger than that of sporadic group patients (67.2 years old, 95% CI 66.7-67.6) (p < 0.0001). Comparing Gleason score between familial group and sporadic group revealed no statistically significant difference. The analysis showed that 92% (95% CI 0.88-0.97) of familial group patients had a 10-year cancer-specific survival rates, which was a significantly better outcome than that of sporadic group with 69% (95% CI 0.60-0.78) 10-year cancer-specific survival rates (p = 0.0237).

CONCLUSION

The study data demonstrate statistically significant difference between familial group and sporadic group concerning age and cancer-specific survival rates, but not Gleason score.

Monitoring the prevalence of severe intellectual disability in children across Europe: feasibility of a common database

AIM

Our aim was to study the feasibility of creating a framework for monitoring and undertaking collaborative research on intellectual disability at the European level, based on existing databases of children with such disability.

METHOD

The characteristics of five existing European intellectual disability databases from four countries (Iceland, Latvia, Ireland, and two in France), were discussed on the basis of ideal criteria set by a working group on childhood intellectual disability as part of the Surveillance of Cerebral Palsy in Europe Network (SCPE-NET). Mean prevalence values for severe intellectual disability for the birth years 1990 till 2002 were compared across databases.

RESULTS

Methods of case recruitment and diagnosis differed across databases, but classification of intellectual disability and completeness were similar. Severe intellectual disability (IQ<50) prevalence estimates were significantly (p<0.001) different across databases (south-east France: 3.3 out of 1000; south-west France: 3.0 out of 1000; Latvia: 3.9 out of 1000; Ireland: 5.0 out of 1000; and Iceland 5.1 out of 1000).

INTERPRETATION

In spite of differences in diagnosis and case inclusion across databases, the construction of a common database for severe intellectual disability was deemed feasible through harmonization of certain criteria, such as age, and through restriction to those with severe intellectual disability.