Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to conduct a population-based projection to estimate the number of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases in Germany until 2040.

METHOD

Data obtained from a report published in 2017 (doi:10.20364/VA-17.08) were used for future prediction analysis. The data were originally collected by the German Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance. We used the illness-death model to estimate future numbers of RA cases, considering nine possible scenarios based on different incidence and mortality rates.

RESULTS

In the baseline scenario, the number of women with RA is projected to increase by 417 000 cases and men by 179 000 cases by 2040, compared with 2015. Peak numbers of cases are concentrated in the 70-80-year-old age group, particularly among women. In the most favourable scenario (scenario 2), assuming a decreasing incidence, the total number of RA cases is projected to rise by 284 000 by 2040, reflecting a 38% relative increase from 2015 to 2040. The least favourable scenario (scenario 9), assuming an increasing incidence, projects a significant burden on the healthcare system. The total number of RA cases is expected to rise by 1.16 million by 2040, marking a substantial 158% relative increase from 2015 to 2040.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research emphasizes a discernible trend: with an ageing society, improving treatment effectiveness, and declining all-cause mortality, we anticipate a rise in the absolute numbers of RA cases in Germany in the coming years. Our models robustly support this viewpoint, underscoring impending challenges for healthcare systems. Addressing these challenges demands multifaceted interventions.

Population-based incidence of psoriasis vulgaris in Germany: analysis of national statutory insurance data from 65 million population

Information on the population-based incidence of psoriasis vulgaris was limited. This study was to provide a comprehensive understanding of the age-specific and sex-specific incidence of psoriasis vulgaris in Germany. The data were obtained in the context of a morbidity-based risk adjustment by statutory health insurance companies in Germany, comprising information regarding 65 million population. Psoriasis vulgaris diagnoses were made and coded according to the 10th edition of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. Age-specific and sex-specific incidences were calculated using data from 2009 to 2011. There was a rise in the age- and sex-specific incidences of psoriasis vulgaris through midlife, reaching a peak at the age of 60 and subsequently declining for both genders. The peak incidence for men, at 130 cases per 100,000 person-years, slightly exceeded the peak incidence for women of 117 per 100,000 person-years. An increase in the overall incidence rate can also be observed over the course of the three-year period covered by the data. Considerable variations in the age- and sex-specific incidences of psoriasis vulgaris can be seen across the lifespan. Nevertheless, the overall age-standardized incidence for the German population was low compared to other European countries.

Estimation of mortality rate ratios for chronic conditions with misclassification of disease status at death

Estimation of mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (MRR) of diseased and non-diseased individuals is a core metric of disease impact used in chronic disease epidemiology. Estimation of mortality rates is often conducted through retrospective linkage of information from nationwide surveys such as the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and death registries. These surveys usually collect information on disease status during only one study visit. This infrequency leads to missing disease information (with right censored survival times) for deceased individuals who were disease-free at study participation, and a possibly biased estimation of the MRR because of possible undetected disease onset after study participation. This occurrence is called "misclassification of disease status at death (MicDaD)" and it is a potentially common source of bias in epidemiologic studies. In this study, we conducted a simulation analysis with a high and a low incidence setting to assess the extent of MicDaD-bias in the estimated mortality. For the simulated populations, MRR for diseased and non-diseased individuals with and without MicDaD were calculated and compared. Magnitude of MicDaD-bias depends on and is driven by the incidence of the chronic disease under consideration; our analysis revealed a noticeable shift towards underestimation for high incidences when MicDaD is present. Impact of MicDaD was smaller for lower incidence (but associated with greater uncertainty in the estimation of MRR in general). Further research can consider the amount of missing information and potential influencers such as duration and risk factors of the disease.

Projected incidence trends of need for long-term care in German men and women from 2011 to 2021

Background

The German Federal Statistical Office routinely collects and reports aggregated numbers of people in need of long-term care (NLTC) stratified by age and sex. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of NLTC from 2011 to 2021 is reported as well. One estimation of the incidence rate of NLTC based on the age- and sex-specific prevalence exists that did not explore possible trends in incidence [based on MRR (mortality rate ratio)], which is important for an adequate projection of the future number of people with NLTC.

Objective

We aim to explore possible trends in age-specific incidence of NLTC in German men and women from 2011 to 2021 based on different scenarios about excess mortality (in terms of MRR).

Methods

The incidence of NLTC was calculated based on an illness-death model and a related partial differential equation based on data from the Federal Statistical Office. Estimation of annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rate was conducted in eight scenarios.

Results

There are consistent indications for trends in incidence for men and women aged 50-79 years with APC in incidence rate of more than +9% per year (up to nearly 19%). For ages 80+ the APC is between +0.4% and +12.5%. In all scenarios, women had higher age-specific APCs than men.

Conclusion

We performed the first analysis of APC in the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of NLTC in Germany and revealed an increasing trend in the incidences. With these findings, a future prevalence of NLTC can be estimated which may exceed current prognoses.

A population-based projection of psoriatic arthritis in Germany until 2050: analysis of national statutory health insurance data of 65 million German population

The population-based prevalence of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is still unclear and not well described globally. The aim of this study was to conduct a population-based prevalence projection and provide long-term future estimations of PsA patients in Germany until 2050, using the illness-death model and based on historical data. We analyzed the national statutory health insurance data of 65 million population in the German Institute for Medical Documentation and Information between January 2009 and December 2012. We constructed an estimation of the PsA burden among the German population using the relevant epidemiological parameters to project the numbers of patients with PsA in Germany until 2050 under five possible scenarios by varying the incidence and mortality. The overall conservatively estimated prevalence of PsA in Germany in 2019 was 0.31% (95% CI 0.28-0.36%). Women contribute a higher prevalence than men in all five scenarios. In the assumed scenarios with increased incidence, the prevalence of PsA at 60 years of age could rise from 1% in 2019 to more than 3% in 2050 for both genders, with the increase particularly pronounced for women, reaching around 3.5%. However, in the assumed scenarios with decreasing incidence, the prevalence curve may flatten and begin a decreasing trend from 2035 to 2050 for both genders, achieving a prevalence of less than 1% in 2050. Our research is to generate assumed population-based data on PsA in Germany that can serve as a reference for public health stakeholders to prepare an optional intervention. We would expect worryingly high numbers in the coming decades if preventive strategies are not implemented. In the long term, it will be necessary to implement preventive strategies to identify predictors and treat psoriasis symptoms early in order to delay or even prevent the transition of psoriasis to PsA.

High Frequency of Osteophytes Detected by High-Resolution Ultrasound at the Finger Joints of Asymptomatic Factory Workers

Hand Osteoarthritis (HOA) is a frequently occurring musculoskeletal disease that impacts health. Diagnostic criteria often incorporate osteophytes documented through imaging procedures. Radiographic imaging is considered the gold standard; however, more sensitive and safer methods like ultrasound imaging are becoming increasingly important. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to examine the prevalence, grade, and pattern of osteophytes using high-resolution ultrasound investigation. Factory workers were recruited on-site for the study. Each participant had 26 finger joints examined using ultrasonography to grade the occurrence of osteophytes on a semi-quantitative scale ranging from 0-3, where higher scores indicate larger osteophytes. A total of 427 participants (mean age 53.5 years, range 20-79 years) were included, resulting in 11,000 joints scored. At least one osteophyte was found in 4546 out of 11,000 (41.3%) joints or in 426 out of 427 (99.8%) participants, but only 5.0% (553) of the joints showed grade 2 or 3 osteophytes. The total osteophyte sum score increased by 0.18 per year as age increased (p < 0.001). The distal interphalangeal joints were the most commonly affected, with 61%, followed by the proximal interphalangeal joints with 48%, carpometacarpal joint 1 with 39%, and metacarpophalangeal joints with 16%. There was no observed impact of gender or workload. In conclusion, ultrasound imaging proves to be a practical screening tool for osteophytes and HOA. Grade 1 osteophytes are often detected in the working population through ultrasound assessments and their incidence increases with age. The occurrence of grade 2 or 3 osteophytes is less frequent and indicates the clinical presence of HOA. Subsequent evaluations are imperative to ascertain the predictive significance of early osteophytes.

Estimation of migraine prevalence considering active and inactive states across different age groups

BACKGROUND

Migraine is a very common headache disorder on the population level, characterized by symptomatic attacks (activity). For many people with migraine, the migraine symptoms intermittently or permanently cease during their lifetime (inactive migraine). The current diagnostic classification of migraine considers two states: active migraine (having migraine symptoms within the last year) and not having active migraine (including both individuals with inactive migraine and those who never had migraine). Defining a state of inactive migraine that has gone into remission may better capture the trajectories of migraine across the lifespan and contribute to a better understanding of its biological processes. We aimed to quantify the prevalence of never, active, and inactive migraine separately, using modern prevalence and incidence estimation methodology to better describe the complexity of migraine trajectories at the population level.

METHODS

Using a multistate modeling approach, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, and results from a population-based study, we estimated the transition rates by which individuals moved between migraine disease states and estimated prevalences of never, active and inactive migraine. We used data from the GBD project and a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people with a starting age of 30 and 30 years of follow-up, both in Germany and globally, stratified by sex.

RESULTS

In Germany, the estimated rate of transition from active to inactive migraine (remission rate) increased after the age of 22.5 in women and 27.5 in men. The pattern for men in Germany was similar to the one observed on the global level. The prevalence of inactive migraine among women reaches 25.7% in Germany and 16.5% globally at age 60. For men, the inactive migraine prevalence estimates at the same age were 10.4% in Germany and 7.1% globally.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering an inactive migraine state explicitly reflects a different epidemiological picture of migraine across the lifecourse. We have demonstrated that many women of older ages may be in an inactive migraine state. Many pressing research questions can only be answered if population-based cohort studies collect information not only on active migraine but also on inactive migraine states.

Beneficial effects associated to a healthy lifestyle in systemic lupus erythematosus: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether a healthy lifestyle is associated to beneficial effects on various systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) health domains.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, Mediterranean Diet Adherence Score (MEDAS), physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE), and smoking status were assessed by questionnaires, along with clinical parameters and various health domains including Systemic Lupus Disease Activity Score (SLEDAI), Depression Scale (CES-D), Fatigue Severity (FSS), functional status (FFbH), physical and mental quality of life (PCS, MCS). Lifestyle choices were assessed with respect to health domains by linear regression modeling. Additionally, SLE patients with a healthy lifestyle (MEDAS ≥ 4, ≥ 1 h sport per week, no smoking) were compared to those without by Wilcoxon's signed-rank test.

RESULTS

49 of 145 SLE patients (44.3 ± 31.7 years, 87.6% female) followed a healthy lifestyle and showed a higher physical quality of life (β = 4.5 (95%-CI 1.5-7.9) p = 0.01), lower depression (β = -5.0 (-8.2 to -0.2) p = 0.02) and lower fatigue (β = -0.8 (-1.5 to -0.2) p = 0.01) independently of SLE disease activity. Furthermore, dsDNA-antibodies were lower (146 ± 540 vs 266 ± 146 U/mL, p = 0.049). In a more detailed analysis, physical activity had the highest impact on the various health domains when compared to smoking or diet adherence, which was consistent even after adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Each 1,000 kcal of weekly PAEE was associated to a 1.8 (0.9-2.6) point increase in the PCS (p = 0.0001), a 0.2 (0.03-0.4) point decrease in the CES-D (p = 0.01) and a 2.8 (1.2-4.4) point increase in the FFbH (p = 0.0006).

CONCLUSION

A healthy lifestyle, especially physical activity is associated with beneficial effects including quality of life, depression and fatigue in SLE.

Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data

INTRODUCTION

We aim to project the number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We first estimate the age-specific and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2010 using data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance. Then, we use the illness-death model to project the prevalence of type 1 diabetes until 2040. We alter the incidence and mortality underlying the illness-death model in several scenarios to explore the impact of possible temporal trends on the number of people with type 1 diabetes.

RESULTS

Applying the prevalence from 2010 to the official population projections of Germany's Federal Statistical Office yields a total number of 252 000 people with type 1 diabetes in Germany in 2040 (+1% compared with 2010). Incorporating different annual trends of the incidence and mortality in the projection model results in a future number of people with type 1 diabetes between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%).

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.

Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany-Analysis of the Claims Data of 63 Million Persons With Statutory Health Insurance From 2014 to 2019

BACKGROUND

There are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019.

METHODS

Based on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age- and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Ageand sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatiotemporal regression model.

RESULTS

During the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% confidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The incidence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted.

CONCLUSION

The T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise despite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.

Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study

BACKGROUND

Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth.

METHODS

We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings.

Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

OBJECTIVE

To project the prevalence and number of youths with diabetes and trends in racial and ethnic disparities in the U.S. through 2060.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study for calendar years 2002-2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence.

RESULTS

The number of youths with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95% CI 209,000; 218,000) (type 1 diabetes 185,000, type 2 diabetes 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95% CI 209,000; 282,000) (type 1 diabetes 191,000, type 2 diabetes 48,000) in 2060 if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% (95% CI -9%; 21%) for type 1 diabetes and 69% (95% CI 43%; 109%) for type 2 diabetes. Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youths with diabetes will be 526,000 (95% CI 335,000; 893,000) (type 1 diabetes 306,000, type 2 diabetes 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% (95% CI 12%; 158%) for type 1 diabetes and 673% (95% CI 362%; 1,341%) for type 2 diabetes. In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of youths with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.

Age-specific incidence of need for long-term care for men and women in Germany 2015: Cross-sectional study comprising 82 million people

Background: With the growing number of older people, the number of people in need of long-term care is increasing, too. Official statistics only report on the age-specific prevalence of long-term care. Therefore, there is no data on the age- and sex-specific incidence of the need for care at the population level for Germany available. Methods: Analytical relationships between age-specific prevalence, incidence rate, remission rate, all-cause mortality, and mortality rate ratio are used to estimate the age-specific incidence of long-term care among men and women in 2015. The data is based on the official prevalence data from the nursing care statistics for the years 2011 to 2019 and official mortality rates from the Federal Statistical Office. For Germany, there is no data on the mortality rate ratio of people with and without a need for care, which is why we use two extreme scenarios that were obtained in a systematic literature search to estimate the incidence. Results: The age-specific incidence is about 1 per 1000 person-years (PY) in men and women at the age of 50 and increases exponentially up to the age of 90. Up to about the age of 60, men have a higher incidence rate than women. Thereafter, women have a higher incidence. At the age of 90, women and men have an incidence rate of 145 to 200 and 94 to 153 per 1000 PY, respectively, depending on the scenario. Conclusion: We estimated the age-specific incidence of the need for long-term care for women and men in Germany for the first time. We observed a strong increase, leading to a huge number of people in need of long-term care in higher age groups. It is to be expected that this will result in an increased economic burden and a further increased need for nursing and medical staff.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting.

METHODS

For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping.

FINDINGS

Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years).

INTERPRETATION

Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.

Illness-Death Model as a Framework for Chronic Disease Burden Projection: Application to Mental Health Epidemiology

Introduction

Estimates of future disease burden supports public health decision-making. Multistate modeling of chronic diseases is still limited despite a long history of mathematical modeling of diseases. We introduce a discrete time approach to the illness-death model and a recursion formula, which can be utilized to project chronic disease burden. We further illustrate an example of the technique applied to anxiety disorders in Germany.

Materials and Equipment

The illness-death model is a multistate model that relates prevalence, incidence, mortality, and remission. A basic recursion formula that considers prevalence, incidence, mortality among the susceptible, and mortality among the diseased can be applied to irreversible chronic diseases such as diabetes. Among several mental disorders, remission plays a key role and thus an extended recursion formula taking remission into account is derived.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data and population projections from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, a total number of individuals with anxiety disorders by sex in Germany from 2019 to 2030 was projected. Regression models were fitted to historical data for prevalence and incidence. Differential mortality risks were modeled based on empirical evidence. Remission was estimated from prevalence, incidence, and mortality, applying the extended recursion formula. Sex- and age-specific prevalence of 2019 was given as the initial value to estimate the total number of individuals with anxiety disorders for each year up to 2030. Projections were also made through simple extrapolation of prevalence for comparison.

Results

From 2019 to 2030, we estimated a decrease of 52,114 (-1.3%) individuals with anxiety disorders among women, and an increase of 166,870 (+8.5%) cases among men, through the illness-death model approach. With prevalence extrapolation, an increase of 381,770 (+9.7%) among women and an increase of 272,446 (+13.9%) among men were estimated.

Discussion

Application of the illness-death model with discrete time steps is possible for both irreversible chronic diseases and diseases with possible remissions, such as anxiety disorders. The technique provides a framework for disease burden prediction. The example provided here can form a basis for running simulations under varying transition probabilities.

POS0362 FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN COPING BEHAVIOUR IN PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS - A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF THE LuLa COHORT

Background

Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) experience both physical and psychosocial restrictions that negatively impact their quality of life. Coping mechanisms have turned out to be important contributors to health-related outcomes, not only in SLE but also other chronic conditions. However, there is limited understanding of factors that enhance or hamper coping in SLE.

Objectives

To analyse parameters associated with longitudinal changes in coping behaviour in patients with SLE who take part in a long-term SLE patient cohort study.

Methods

Since 2001, the German nationwide SLE patient longitudinal (Lupus Langzeit ‘LuLa’) study annually administers self-reported questionnaires to SLE patients.

In addition to demographic and the annually probed extended clinical data (e.g., medication, disease activity, fatigue, depression), in both 2009 and 2014 we assessed the Pain-related Self Statements Scale (PRSS) to perceive information related to coping behaviour. This includes ‘positive coping’ as well as catastrophizing as a dysfunctional form of coping behaviour.

Statistical analysis was accomplished by a linear regression model adjusting for age, pain, number of comorbidities and net income. The PRSS score difference from 2009 and 2014 was used as the dependent variable. Factors from the i) medical (involvement of the skin, pain, fatigue), ii) activity (basic, leisure, sports), iii) intrinsic (depression, kinesiophobia, perceived health control), and iv) social participation categories were entered as independent variables.

Results

272 patients (96.7% female) provided valid PRSS questionnaires in both 2009 and 2014. In 2009 the mean age in this cohort was 51 years (SD 11.2) with an average disease duration of 16.2 years (SD 8.3). The mean reported lupus activity (VAS 0-10) during the last three months was 3.7 (SD 2.4). During the six-year observation period, the proportion of improvement (46.2%) and deterioration (47.4%) in coping score was almost balanced, while in catastrophizing score more participants improved (50.0%) than deteriorated (37.0%).

A perceived high internal control, thus the belief that health outcomes are contingent on personal behaviour, was associated with an improvement in the coping score [HLC, b=0.061 (95%-CI 0.014; 0.109), p=0.012]. Conversely, high external control convictions, e.g., the belief that doctors and other third parties determine health outcomes, were associated with a worse coping score [HLC, b=-0.090 (95%-CI -0.154; -0.026), p=0.006]. Deterioration in depression [ADS-L, b=0.015, (95%-CI 0.006; 0.025), p=0.002] and impaired social participation [IMET, b=0.043, (95%-CI 0.000; 0.085), p=0.050] were associated with a deterioration of catastrophizing, whereas better internal control [HLC, b=-0.046, (95%-CI -0.080; -0.012), p=0.009] was associated with its improvement.

Mucocutaneous involvement, fatigue and the extent of physical activity were not significantly associated with either coping or catastrophizing scores in the regression analysis.

Conclusion

In line with data from other chronic diseases, our findings in a longitudinal SLE cohort emphasise the role of intrinsic factors, such as mental health status and self-efficacy, improving the quality of life in SLE patients via successful coping behaviour. Affirmative action measures and programs to improve social participation may yield additional benefits.

Acknowledgements

The LuLa study is supported by unrestricted grants from GlaxoSmithKline, UCB Pharma and AstraZeneca.

Disclosure of Interests

Emily Reutemann: None declared, Ralph Brinks: None declared, Jutta G. Richter Grant/research support from: GlaxoSmithKline and UCB Pharma for performing the LuLa-study., Rebecca Fischer-Betz Grant/research support from: GlaxoSmithKline and UCB Pharma for performing the LuLa-study., Borgi Winkler-Rohlfing: None declared, Martin Aringer: None declared, Matthias Schneider Grant/research support from: GlaxoSmithKline and UCB Pharma for performing the LuLa-study., Gamal Chehab Grant/research support from: GlaxoSmithKline and UCB Pharma for performing the LuLa-study.

AB0935 Number of patients with psoriatric arthritis (PsA) in Germany until 2040: Projection based on data from 65 million people in the German statutory health insurance

Background

Recently, we have reported an increase in the incidence and prevalence of patients with PsA in Germany based on claim data from 65 million people in statutory health insurance during 2009 to 2012 [1].

Objectives

Population-based estimation of long-term projection for incidence and prevalence of patients with diagnosis of PsA until the year 2040.

Methods

Based on prevalence and incidence of PsA, the number of men and women diagnosed with PsA until 2040 is projected using the illness-death model [2]. The mortality and age distribution of the general population is taken from the official population forecasts of the German Federal Statistical Office. Mortality of patients with PsA was considered by using estimates of the mortality rate ratios [3]. Percent change in projected case numbers refer to 2012 (base year).

Results

Starting from 2012, three scenarios about the incidence of PsA after 2012 were found (Graph 1): (A) increase of 5% per year as observed in [1], (B) no trend in incidence and (C) decrease of a similar 5% per year due to a theoretically anticipated early treatment effect. In scenario C, the number of men and women peaks at about 2028 and decreases slightly afterwards. The graph shows the projected numbers of men (left panel) and women (right) with PsA until 2040 in the three incidence scenarios. The projected numbers and the percent changes are given in the Table 1.

Conclusion

Different scenario may be considered based on recent population data for the incidence course of PsA until 2040. The most optimistic scenario showed a trend of stabilization of incidence including the anticipated population mortality rates. Thus, it is likely that substantially more medical resources for treating patients with PsA are necessary in the next two decades, whereby approaches to the potential prevention of PsA, for example by very early treatment of psoriasis patients, should be further pursued.

References

[1]DOI 10.1136/rmdopen-2021-001975

[2]DOI 10.1016/j.tpb.2013.11.006

[3]DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2796.2010.02310.x

Graph 1.Table 1.ScenarioSexProjected number 2019 (in 1000)Projected number 2040 (in 1000)Change 2040 compared to 2019AMale125353+183%Female156437+180%BMale116173+49.0%Female146223+53.2%CMale109101-6.9%Female137136-0.5%

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Trends in lifetime risk and years of potential life lost from diabetes in the United States, 1997–2018

Background

Both incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes have decreased over the past decade. However, the impact of these changes on key metrics of diabetes burden–lifetime risk (LR), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and years spent with diabetes–is unknown.

Methods

We used data from 653,811 adults aged ≥18 years from the National Health Interview Survey, a cross-sectional sample of the civilian non-institutionalized population in the United States. LR, YPLL, and years spent with diabetes were estimated from age 18 to 84 by survey period (1997–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2009, 2010–2014, 2015–2018). The age-specific incidence of diagnosed diabetes and mortality were estimated using Poisson regression. A multistate difference equation accounting for competing risks was used to model each metric.

Results

LR and years spent with diabetes initially increased then decreased over the most recent time periods. LR for adults at age 20 increased from 31.7% (95% CI: 31.2–32.1%) in 1997–1999 to 40.7% (40.2–41.1%) in 2005–2009, then decreased to 32.8% (32.4–33.2%) in 2015–2018. Both LR and years spent with diabetes were markedly higher among adults of non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other races compared to non-Hispanic Whites. YPLL significantly decreased over the study period, with the estimated YPLL due to diabetes for an adult aged 20 decreasing from 8.9 (8.7–9.1) in 1997–1999 to 6.2 (6.1–6.4) in 2015–2018 (p = 0.02).

Conclusion

In the United States, diabetes burden is declining, but disparities by race/ethnicity remain. LR remains high with approximately one-third of adults estimated to develop diabetes during their lifetime.

Importance of Diagnostic Accuracy in Big Data: False-Positive Diagnoses of Type 2 Diabetes in Health Insurance Claims Data of 70 Million Germans

Large data sets comprising diagnoses of chronic conditions are becoming increasingly available for research purposes. In Germany, it is planned that aggregated claims data - including medical diagnoses from the statutory health insurance - with roughly 70 million insurants will be published regularly. The validity of the diagnoses in such big datasets can hardly be assessed. In case the dataset comprises prevalence, incidence, and mortality, it is possible to estimate the proportion of false-positive diagnoses using mathematical relations from the illness-death model. We apply the method to age-specific aggregated claims data from 70 million Germans about type 2 diabetes in Germany stratified by sex and report the findings in terms of the age-specific ratio of false-positive diagnoses of type 2 diabetes (FPR) in the dataset. The FPR for men and women changes with age. In men, the FPR increases linearly from 1 to 3 per 1,000 in the age group of 30-50 years. For age between 50 and 80 years, FPR remains below 4 per 1,000. After 80 years of age, we have an increase to approximately 5 per 1,000. In women, we find a steep increase from age 30 to 60 years, the peak FPR is reached at approximately 12 per 1,000 between 60 and 70 years of age. After age 70 years, the FPR of women drops tremendously. In all age groups, the FPR is higher in women than in men. In terms of absolute numbers, we find that there are 217,000 people with a false-positive diagnosis in the dataset (95% confidence interval, CI: 204-229), the vast majority being women (172,000, 95% CI: 162-180). Our work indicates that possible false-positive (and negative) diagnoses should appropriately be dealt with in claims data, for example, by the inclusion of age- and sex-specific error terms in statistical models, to avoid potentially biased or wrong conclusions.

Musculoskeletal ultrasound as a screening-tool for rheumatoid arthritis: results of the "Rheuma-Truck" screening and awareness initiative

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) as a screening tool for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA) patients in a rheumatology-screening program.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

To raise awareness for rheumatic diseases, a mobile rheumatology office was deployed in different cities of Germany ("Rheuma-Truck"). Standardized questionnaire assessment, testing for rheumatoid factor and citrullinated peptide antibodies and medical student driven MSUS of the clinically dominant hand/foot including wrist, MCP-II, -III, -V, PIP-II, -III, MTP-II and -V were offered free of charge to the population. In case of suspicious results, a rheumatologist was consulted.

RESULTS

In MSUS, 192 of 560 selected volunteers (aged 18-89, mean 52.7 years; 72.9% female) had suspicious findings including synovitis or erosions primarily affecting the MTP-II (11.8%), dorsal wrist (8.9%), and MCP-II (7%). 354 of the 560 volunteers further visited a rheumatologist of whom 76 were diagnosed with RA. According to the 'US7 Score', a sum scores ≥ 5 was significantly predictive for RA (odds ratio (OR) 5.06; confidence interval (CI) 0.83-35.32). 313 volunteers displayed signs of OA including osteophytes, while MCP-II (36.2%), MCP-III (14.8%), and the wrist (10.5%) were mostly affected. Diagnosis of RA was favoured over OA if the wrist (OR 4.2; CI 1.28-13.95), MTP-II (OR 1.62; CI 1.0-2.6), and MCP-V (OR 2.0; CI 1.0-3.8) were involved.

CONCLUSION

Medical student driven MSUS by the 'US7 Score' can facilitate diagnosis of RA in rheumatology-screening programs due to the level of the score and the affected joints. A high rate of unknown OA signs was detected by MSUS. A mobile rheumatology office displays an opportunity to screen patients for RA and OA.

Risk of psoriatic arthritis depending on age: analysis of data from 65 million people on statutory insurance in Germany

Objectives

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the age-dependent risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA). For this purpose, it focuses on the varying incidences within the different age groups.

Methods

The data were collected as part of the morbidity-based risk adjustment of the statutory health insurance companies in Germany. This survey recorded the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD)-coded diagnoses of 65 million German citizens. Our population-based study used these raw data to calculate the prevalence of PsA in the first step. Subsequently, we employed a new approach for the estimation of the age-specific and sex-specific incidence of PsA.

Results

The age-specific and sex-specific incidence of PsA showed a continuous increase with rising age until it peaked slightly before the age of 60 and declined thereafter. The maximum value was higher in women (40 per 100 000 py) than in men (30 per 100 000 py). Furthermore, the incidence rate tends to climb over the survey period.

Conclusions

The data sets identified an unexpected high incidence. A meta-analysis by Scotti et al and other recent population-based studies served as a reference for the comparison. The pattern of the age-specific incidence illustrated that the risk for PsA disease shows considerable variations depending on age.

Factors detrimental to work productivity and daily activities in systemic lupus erythematosus patients - Analysis of the German LuLa study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with impaired work productivity and impaired daily activities in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

The LuLa study is a longitudinal patient-reported study. Beyond sociodemographic data, work productivity, daily activities and fatigue, several other clinical outcome parameters (e.g. mental health-related quality of life and physical functioning, disease activity, damage and pain) were surveyed with validated questionnaires. The effects of confounders on work productivity (WPAI 2) and daily activity domains (WPAI 4) were studied by multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 585 patients completed the questionnaire of whom 259 were employed and analysed. The median impairment in work productivity (WPAI 2) was 20% (Q1-3 0-40), and the median impairment in daily activities (WPAI 4) was 30% (Q1-3 10-50%). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that fatigue, pain, disease activity and health-related quality of life affected WPAI 2 and 4. Furthermore, we observed distinct synergistic effects of fatigue, disease activity and pain on both work productivity and daily activities: a higher impact of fatigue was associated with the reported extent of pain or disease activity.

CONCLUSION

In employed patients with SLE, impaired work productivity and impaired daily activities were frequently reported. Fatigue, pain, disease activity and health-related quality of life demonstrated a detrimental impact, with a synergistic effect of fatigue, disease activity and pain. Hence, both optimized pain management and targeted immunomodulatory therapy are important for preserving active participation in life among patients with fatigue.

Diabetes free life expectancy and years of life lost associated with type 2 diabetes: projected trends in Germany between 2015 and 2040

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ([Formula: see text]) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040.

METHODS

Based on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and [Formula: see text] associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

Assuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million [Formula: see text] in the German population aged 40-100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Given expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.

Methyl donor micronutrients, CD40-ligand methylation and disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus: A cross-sectional association study

Objective

Hypomethylation of CD40-ligand (CD40L) in T-cells is associated with increased disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We therefore investigated possible associations of dietary methyl donors and products with CD40L methylation status in SLE.

Methods

Food frequency questionnaires were employed to calculate methyl donor micronutrients in 61 female SLE patients (age 45.7 ± 12.0 years, disease duration 16.2 ± 8.4 years) and compared to methylation levels of previously identified key DNA methylation sites (CpG17 and CpG22) within CD40L promotor of T-cells using quantitative DNA methylation analysis on the EpiTYPER mass spectrometry platform. Disease activity was assessed by SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI). Linear regression modelling was used. P values were adjusted according to Benjamini & Hochberg.

Results

Amongst the micronutrients assessed (g per day), methionine and cysteine were associated with methylation of CpG17 (β = 5.0 (95%CI: 0.6-9.4), p = 0.04; and β = 2.4 (0.6-4.1), p = 0.02, respectively). Methionine, choline, and cysteine were additionally associated with the mean methylation of the entire CD40L (β = 9.5 (1.0-18.0), p = 0.04; β = 1.6 (0.4-3.0), p = 0.04; and β = 4.3 (0.9-7.7), p = 0.02, respectively). Associations of the SLEDAI with hypomethylation were confirmed for CpG17 (β=-32.6 (-60.6 to -4.6), p = 0.04) and CpG22 (β=-38.3 (-61.2 to -15.4), p = 0.004), but not the mean methylation of CD40L. Dietary products with the highest impact on methylation included meat, ice cream, white bread, and cooked potatoes.

Conclusions

Dietary methyl donors may influence DNA methylation levels and thereby disease activity in SLE.

LUPUS-BEST-treat-to-target in systemic lupus erythematosus: study protocol for a three-armed cluster-randomised trial

INTRODUCTION

As chronic systemic autoimmune disease, which can affect every organ, SLE is creating significant burden and increased mortality. Despite better outcomes over the past decades by optimising standard of care, new interventions are needed for further improvements. Changing strategy to 'treat-to-target' (T2T) may be a promising concept proven successful in other chronic diseases.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this cluster-randomised trial, SLE centres will be assigned 1:1:1 to standard of care (SoC), remission (no clinical disease activity+prednisolone ≤5 mg/day+Physician Global Assessment (PGA 0-3) <0.5±immunomodulatory treatment) or and Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS, low disease activity+prednisolone ≤7.5 mg/day+PGA ≤1+no new disease activity). Per arm, 424 patients will be included. Intervention centres receive a standardised training on T2T and shared decision-making (SDM). In intervention centres, patients not in target enter a phase of tight control with six weekly visits and treatment adjustments (at least four visits) or until the target is reached and maintained. Patients in target are reassessed every 12 weeks. In case of flare, they can enter tight control based on SDM. In the SoC arm, patients receive their usual three to six monthly controls and treatment adjustments according to the physician's discretion. Study duration is 120 weeks using change in damage and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as major outcomes. The primary endpoint will be damage accrual at 120 weeks as measured by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index and will by analysed by a mixed model.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first trial to assess if the implementation of a T2T concept in clinical care minimises damage accrual and improves HRQoL in patients with SLE. Comparison of remission and LLDAS will help to identify the target with the best benefit-risk ratio concerning attainability, adverse events and damage. The emphasis on SDM will strengthen patient autonomy and will improve both their satisfaction and medical condition.

Productivity-adjusted life years lost due to type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2020 and 2040

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Type 2 diabetes can lead to reduced productivity during working age. We aimed to estimate productive life years lost associated with type 2 diabetes on the individual and population level in Germany in 2020 and 2040, while accounting for future trends in mortality.

METHODS

Based on a mathematical projection model, we estimated age- and sex-specific productivity losses associated with type 2 diabetes during working age (20-69 years) in Germany in 2020 and 2040. Productivity losses in terms of excess mortality (years of life lost, YLL) and reductions in labour force participation, presenteeism and absenteeism (years of productivity lost, YPL) were summed to calculate productivity-adjusted life years (PALY) lost. Input data for the projection were based on meta-analyses, representative population-based studies and population projections to account for future trends in mortality.

RESULTS

Compared with a person without type 2 diabetes, mean PALY lost per person with type 2 diabetes in 2020 was 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3, 3.0). Of these 2.6 years, 0.4 (95% CI 0.3, 0.4) years were lost due to YLL and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.6) years were lost due to YPL. Age- and sex-specific results show that younger age groups and women are expected to lose more productive life years than older age groups and men. Population-wide estimates suggest that 4.60 (95% CI 4.58, 4.63) million people with prevalent type 2 diabetes in 2020 are expected to lose 12.06 (95% CI 10.42, 13.76) million PALY (1.62 million years due to YLL and 10.44 million years due to YPL). In 2040, individual-level PALY lost are projected to slightly decrease due to reductions in YLL. In contrast, population-wide PALY lost are projected to increase to 15.39 (95% CI 13.19, 17.64) million due to an increase in the number of people with type 2 diabetes to 5.45 (95% CI 5.41, 5.50) million.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

On the population level, a substantial increase in productivity burden associated with type 2 diabetes was projected for Germany between 2020 and 2040. Efforts to reduce the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes and diabetes-related complications may attenuate this increase.

Treatment expectations as a possible prognostic factor for DMARD response in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

Background:

The prediction of the individual’s response to disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is challenging and often limited. Here we evaluated the influence of patients’ expectations towards a change in treatment with DMARD on clinical outcome in RA.

Methods:

One hundred patients (74 female) with RA (2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria) and an upcoming change in DMARD treatment due to non-response or adverse effects were included. Patients’ treatment beliefs, health-related quality of life and treatment expectations were measured using the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ), the Short Form 36, and self-designed questions about expectations before treatment initiation (T0), and DAS28-CRP was calculated at T0 and after 4 months (T4). Associations between patients’ beliefs and expectations and changes in DAS28-CRP (T0 to T4, ΔDAS28-CRP) were explored by regression analyses after multiple imputation.

Results:

A total of 99 patients were included, of whom 84 completed all questionnaires. Thirty-six percent of all variability in treatment response (ΔDAS28-CRP) was explained by expectations assessed with the questionnaires and the C-reactive protein (CRP)-value at T0. Among these, the expected improvement rate, with 10.5%, as well as the CRP-value at T0, with 10.6%, had the greatest positive effect whereas the fear of adverse effects, with 11.4%, and the BMQ.concern scale, with 9.0%, had the greatest negative impact on ΔDAS28.

Conclusion:

Patients’ expectations towards newly induced DMARD therapies influence clinical response and may serve as possible explanatory factors for treatment response affecting subjective and objective outcome parameters.

Clinical trial registration number:

DRKS00017005

What are the topics you care about making trials in lupus more effective? Results of an Open Space meeting of international lupus experts

Despite promising candidates for new therapeutic options in the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), many clinical trials have failed in the past few years. The disappointing results have been at least partly be attributed to trial designs. With the aim of stimulating new developments in SLE trial design, an international open space meeting was held on occasion of the European Lupus Meeting 2018 in Duesseldorf, Germany about ‘What are the topics you care about for making trials in lupus more effective?’. The Open Space is a participant-driven technology, where the discussion topics and schedule are selected during the meeting by all participants and discussion rounds are led by the people attending encouraging active contributions. Eleven topics were selected for further discussion, of which 6 were voted to be more intensively discussed in two consecutive rounds. Major topics were the optimal handling of glucocorticoids in clinical trials, the improvement of outcome measures, reducing or controlling the placebo response and the identification of biomarkers and stratification parameters. Further, the importance of local and international networks was emphasised. By networking, collaborations are facilitated, patient recruitment is more efficient and treatment can be harmonised thus lead to more successful SLE trials. Further discussions are needed to substantiate the results and develop new trial designs.

Association between HIV infection and hypertension: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies

BACKGROUND

Improved access to effective antiretroviral therapy has meant that people living with HIV (PLHIV) are surviving to older ages. However, PLHIV may be ageing differently to HIV-negative individuals, with dissimilar burdens of non-communicable diseases, such as hypertension. While some observational studies have reported a higher risk of prevalent hypertension among PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals, others have found a reduced burden. To clarify the relationship between HIV and hypertension, we identified observational studies and pooled their results to assess whether there is a difference in hypertension risk by HIV status.

METHODS

We performed a global systematic review and meta-analysis of published cross-sectional studies that examined hypertension risk by HIV status among adults aged > 15 (PROSPERO: CRD42019151359). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and Cochrane CENTRAL to August 23, 2020, and checked reference lists of included articles. Our main outcome was the risk ratio for prevalent hypertension in PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals. Summary estimates were pooled with a random effects model and meta-regression explored whether any difference was associated with study-level factors.

RESULTS

Of 21,527 identified studies, 59 were eligible (11,101,581 participants). Crude global hypertension risk was lower among PLHIV than HIV-negative individuals (risk ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.96), although heterogeneity between studies was high (I² = 97%, p < 0.0001). The relationship varied by continent, with risk higher among PLHIV in North America (1.12, 1.02-1.23) and lower among PLHIV in Africa (0.75, 0.68-0.83) and Asia (0.77, 0.63-0.95). Meta-regression revealed strong evidence of a difference in risk ratios when comparing North American and European studies to African ones (North America 1.45, 1.21-1.74; Europe 1.20, 1.03-1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the relationship between HIV status and prevalent hypertension differs by region. The results highlight the need to tailor hypertension prevention and care to local contexts and underscore the importance of rapidly optimising integration of services for HIV and hypertension in the worst affected regions. The role of different risk factors for hypertension in driving context-specific trends remains unclear, so development of further cohorts of PLHIV and HIV-negative controls focused on this would also be valuable.

European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria item performance

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 2019 classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus system showed high specificity, while attaining also high sensitivity. We hereby analysed the performance of the individual criteria items and their contribution to the overall performance of the criteria.

METHODS

We combined the EULAR/ACR derivation and validation cohorts for a total of 1197 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and n=1074 non-SLE patients with a variety of conditions mimicking SLE, such as other autoimmune diseases, and calculated the sensitivity and specificity for antinuclear antibodies (ANA) and the 23 specific criteria items. We also tested performance omitting the EULAR/ACR criteria attribution rule, which defines that items are only counted if not more likely explained by a cause other than SLE.

RESULTS

Positive ANA, the new entry criterion, was 99.5% sensitive, but only 19.4% specific, against a non-SLE population that included other inflammatory rheumatic, infectious, malignant and metabolic diseases. The specific criteria items were highly variable in sensitivity (from 0.42% for delirium and 1.84% for psychosis to 75.6% for antibodies to double-stranded DNA), but their specificity was uniformly high, with low C3 or C4 (83.0%) and leucopenia <4.000/mm³ (83.8%) at the lowest end. Unexplained fever was 95.3% specific in this cohort. Applying the attribution rule improved specificity, particularly for joint involvement.

CONCLUSIONS

Changing the position of the highly sensitive, non-specific ANA to an entry criterion and the attribution rule resulted in a specificity of >80% for all items, explaining the higher overall specificity of the criteria set.

Impact of diagnostic accuracy on the estimation of excess mortality from incidence and prevalence: simulation study and application to diabetes in German men

Aggregated data about the prevalence and incidence of chronic conditions is becoming more and more available. We recently proposed a method to estimate the age-specific excess mortality in chronic conditions from aggregated age-specific prevalence and incidence data. Previous works showed that in age groups below 50 years, estimates from this method were unstable or implausible. In this article, we examine how limited diagnostic accuracy in terms of sensitivity and specificity affects the estimates. We use a simulation study with two settings, a low and a high prevalence setting, and assess the relative importance of sensitivity and specificity. It turns out that in both settings, specificity, especially in the younger age groups, dominates the quality of the estimated excess mortality. The findings are applied to aggregated claims data comprising the diagnoses of diabetes from about 35 million men in the German Statutory Health Insurance. Key finding is that specificity in the lower age groups (<50 years) can be derived without knowing the sensitivity. The false-positive ratio in the claims data increases linearly from 0.5 per mil at age 25 to 2 per mil at age 50. As a conclusion, our findings stress the importance of considering diagnostic accuracy when estimating excess mortality from aggregated data using the method to estimate excess mortality. Especially the specificity in the younger age-groups should be carefully taken into account.

Delayed diagnosis adversely affects outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus: Cross sectional analysis of the LuLa cohort

Objective

Despite increased physician’s awareness and improved diagnostic and serological testing in the recent years, the interval between the initial symptoms and the diagnosis of Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is still very long. Our aim was to study this delay and its association to the outcome of the disease.

Methods

Information on demographics, onset of first symptoms, first physicians visit and time of diagnosis was assessed by self-reported questionnaires among SLE patients in Germany (LuLa cohort, n = 585) in the year 2012. Disease activity (Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire; SLAQ), disease related damage (Brief Index of Lupus Damage; BILD), health related quality of life (Short Form 12) and fatigue (FSS) were chosen as proxies for outcome. Linear regression analysis was used to analyze the association of the delay in diagnosis to the outcome, adjusted for age, disease duration and sex.

Results

Mean duration between the onset of symptoms and the diagnosis of SLE was 47 months (SD 73). The longer the time to diagnosis, the higher the disease activity (β = 0.199, p < 0.0001), the disease-related damage (β = 0.137, p = 0.002) and fatigue (β 0.145, p = 0.003) and the lower the health-related quality of life (physical β = −0.136, p = 0.004, mental β = −0.143, p = 0.004).

Conclusion

In systemic lupus erythematosus, longer time to diagnosis was associated with worse outcome. Concepts in care with the intention to shorten the time to diagnosis are needed to improve the long-term outcome of the disease.

Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040

INTRODUCTION

As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.

RESULTS

Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.

Associations Between Classification Criteria Items in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

A project aimed at developing new classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is based on weighted criteria that include both laboratory and clinical items. Combinations of certain symptoms may occur commonly in SLE, which provides an argument against independently counting these items. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the interrelationship between candidate criteria items in the International Early SLE cohort and in the Euro-Lupus cohort.

METHODS

The International Early SLE cohort included 389 patients, who were diagnosed within 3 years prior to the study. Data on the ACR's 1997 update of the SLE revised criteria, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics 2012 criteria, and on 30 additional items were collected. To evaluate the interrelationship of the criteria, a tetrachoric correlation was used to assess the degree of association between different manifestations in the same organ system. The correlations identified in the International Early SLE cohort were validated in the Euro-Lupus cohort.

RESULTS

A few relevant correlations were observed among specific clinical cutaneous manifestations (in particular, malar rash correlated with photosensitivity, alopecia, and oral ulcers) and serologic manifestations (anti-Sm and anti-double-stranded DNA and anti-RNA polymerase, anti-Ro and anti-La, and antiphospholipid antibodies), and these results were validated in the Euro-Lupus cohort. The associations within the mucocutaneous domain, hematologic and the specific autoantibodies suggest that within a single domain only the highest ranking item should be counted to avoid overrepresentation.

CONCLUSION

Some of the candidate SLE criteria cluster within domains. Given these interrelationships, multiple criteria within a domain should not be independently counted. These results are important to consider for the structure of new SLE classification criteria.

Associations of site-specific CD4+-T-cell hypomethylation within CD40-ligand promotor and enhancer regions with disease activity of women with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To comprehensively assess associations of site-specific CD4⁺-T-cell hypomethylation of the CD40-Ligand gene (CD40L) with disease activity of women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

CpG-sites within the DNA of the promotor and two enhancer regions (n = 22) of CD40L were identified and numbered consecutively. The rate of methylated DNA in isolated CD4⁺-T-cells of women with SLE were quantified for each methylation site by MALDI-TOF. Disease activity was assessed by SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI). Associations of site-specific methylation rates with the SLEDAI scores were assessed by linear regression modelling. P values were adjusted according to Bonferroni-Holm as indicated.

RESULTS

60 female SLE patients participated in the study (age 45.7 ± 11.1 years, disease duration 17.0 ± 8.3 years). Significant associations to the SLEDAI were noted for CpG22 hypomethylation of the promotor (β = -40.1, p = 0.017, adjusted p = 0.027), trends were noted for CpG17 hypomethylation of the promotor (β = -30.5, p = 0.032, adjusted p = 0.6), and for CpG11 hypermethylation of the second enhancer (β = 15.0, p = 0.046, adjusted p = 0.8).

CONCLUSION

Site-specific hypomethylation of the CD40L promotor in CD4⁺-T-cells show associations with disease activity in female SLE patients.

Quality of care predicts outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus: a cross-sectional analysis of a German long-term study (LuLa cohort)

Objective

Our aim was to study the quality of medical care in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) to understand gaps and to analyze the association with outcome of the disease.

Methods

Information on demographics and medical care was assessed by self-reported questionnaires among SLE patients (LuLa cohort, 2011, n = 580). In total, 21 aspects of medical care were analyzed. Univariate analysis selected 10 predictor variables for further analysis: (1) urine examination and (2) blood test in the previous year, (3) taking antimalarials, (4) taking vitamin D and calcium if the dosage of prednisolone was greater than 7.5 mg/day, counseling regarding (5) lipid metabolism, (6) vaccination, and (7) blood pressure, and treatment of the comorbidities (8) hypertension, (9) osteoporosis and (10) lipid metabolism disorder. The association of these 10 items with the outcome of the disease, assessed in 2015, was analyzed by linear regression analysis, adjusted for age, disease duration and sex.

Results

On average six of the 10 items were met (±1.7). Receiving more clinical care in 2013 was predictive for low disease activity (SLAQ, p = 0.024, β = –0.104, corr. R²= 0.048), low progress in disease-related damage (Delta Brief Index of Lupus Questionnaire, p = 0.048, β = –0.132, corr. R²= 0.036) and high health-related quality of life (SF-12 physical, p = 0.035, β = 0.100, corr. R²= 0.091) in 2015.

Conclusion

Our study illustrates a link between the quality of care and the SLE outcome parameters disease activity, disease-related damage and quality of life. Consistent considerations of these care parameters, which are recommended in several management guidelines, could therefore be a good approach to improve the outcome of patients with SLE.

Performance of the 2019 EULAR/ACR classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus in early disease, across sexes and ethnicities

OBJECTIVES

The European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 2019 Classification Criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have been validated with high sensitivity and specificity. We evaluated the performance of the new criteria with regard to disease duration, sex and race/ethnicity, and compared its performance against the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria.

METHODS

Twenty-one SLE centres from 16 countries submitted SLE cases and mimicking controls to form the validation cohort. The sensitivity and specificity of the EULAR/ACR 2019, SLICC 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria were evaluated.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of female (n=1098), male (n=172), Asian (n=118), black (n=68), Hispanic (n=124) and white (n=941) patients; with an SLE duration of 1 to <3 years (n=196) and ≥5 years (n=879). Among patients with 1 to <3 years disease duration, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% vs 81%). The EULAR/ACR criteria performed well in men (sensitivity 93%, specificity 96%) and women (sensitivity 97%, specificity 94%). Among women, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% vs 83%) and better specificity than the SLICC criteria (94% vs 82%). Among white patients, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (95% vs 83%) and better specificity than the SLICC criteria (94% vs 83%). The EULAR/ACR criteria performed well among black patients (sensitivity of 98%, specificity 100%), and had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria among Hispanic patients (100% vs 86%) and Asian patients (97% vs 77%).

CONCLUSIONS

The EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria perform well among patients with early disease, men, women, white, black, Hispanic and Asian patients. These criteria have superior sensitivity than the ACR criteria and/or superior specificity than the SLICC criteria across many subgroups.

Age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes in Germany: a nationwide analysis based on claims data from 69 million people

AIM

For many European countries, including Germany, no valid estimates are available on age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Thus, we aimed to estimate the age at diagnosis in Germany.

METHODS

Age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes in Germany was estimated based on Type 2 diabetes prevalence and incidence and the age distribution of the German population. Age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence in 2014/2015, based on claims data from statutory health insurance (n= 69 000 000, ~85% of the German population), and the age pyramid for Germany in 2015 were used for the calculation. Age at Type 2 diabetes diagnosis was stratified by sex. CIs were estimated using bootstrap methods. In addition, the age range in which 50% of the population received a diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes was calculated (the interquartile range).

RESULTS

The mean ± sd age at Type 2 diabetes diagnosis in 2015 was 61.0 ± 13.4 years (95% CI 60.9-61.0) in men. Women were diagnosed ~2 years later than men (mean age 63.4 ± 14.9 years; 95% CI 63.4-63.5). The age range in which 50% of the population was diagnosed with diabetes was 53-72 years for men and 54-76 years for women.

CONCLUSIONS

The sex differences are mainly attributable to a higher incidence of Type 2 diabetes in men than women during middle age and the higher absolute number of women in the older ages. The early age at diabetes diagnosis compared to average life expectancy means that the risk of diabetes-related complications is increased.

Profiling of IgG antibodies targeting unmodified and corresponding citrullinated autoantigens in a multicenter national cohort of early arthritis in Germany

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic potential of IgG antibodies to citrullinated and corresponding native autoantigens in early arthritis.

METHODS

IgG autoantibodies to 390 distinct unmodified and corresponding in vitro citrullinated recombinant proteins were measured by a multiplex assay in baseline blood samples from a German multicenter national cohort of 411 early arthritis patients (56.5 ± 14.6 years, 62.8% female). The cohort was randomly split into a training cohort (n = 329, 28.6% ACPA positive) and a validation cohort (n = 82, 32.9% ACPA pos.). The diagnostic properties of candidate antibodies to predict a subsequent diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as opposed to a non-RA diagnosis were assessed by receiver operating characteristics analysis and generalized linear modeling (GLM) with Bonferroni correction in comparison to clinically determined IgM rheumatoid factor (RF) and citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) status.

RESULTS

Of 411 patients, 309 (75.2%) were classified as RA. Detection rates of antibody responses to citrullinated and uncitrullinated forms of the proteins were weakly correlated (Spearman's r = 0.13 (95% CI 0.029-0.22), p = 0.01). The concentration of 34 autoantibodies (32 to citrullinated and 2 to uncitrullinated antigens) was increased at least 2-fold in RA patients and further assessed. In the training cohort, a significant association of citrullinated "transformer 2 beta homolog" (cTRA2B)-IgG with RA was observed (OR 5.3 × 103, 95% CI 0.8 × 103-3.0 × 106, p = 0.047). Sensitivity and specificity of cTRA2B-IgG (51.0%/82.9%) were comparable to RF (30.8%/91.6%) or ACPA (32.1%/94.7%). Similar results were obtained in the validation cohort. The addition of cTRA2B-IgG to ACPA improved the diagnostic performance over ACPA alone (p = 0.026 by likelihood ratio test).

CONCLUSIONS

cTRA2B-IgG has the potential to improve RA diagnosis in conjunction with RF and ACPA in early arthritis.

Association between autoantibody level and disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis is dependent on baseline inflammation

OBJECTIVES

It is still controversial whether autoantibody (AAb) serum levels have a value for response monitoring in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Therefore, we retrospectively investigated a real-life outpatient RA cohort to determine which factors are associated with change in serum AAb levels and RA disease activity. The primary goal of the study was to determine predictors for changes in DAS28 and autoantibodies over time and identify traits of non-rituximab treated patients, which would define strong association of disease activity with changes in AAb-levels.

METHODS

Seventy-eight patients with seropositive RA were monitored for DAS28, CRP, ESR, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptides (CCP), anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin (MCV), and rheumatoid factor (RF). Using linear mixed regression modelling, factors influencing DAS28 and serum AAb were determined. Patients showing above (good correlators) and below (bad correlators) average correlation of serum AAb with DAS28 were further characterised.

RESULTS

In non-rituximab treated patients (88.5%), associations of changes in AAb and DAS28 were strengthened with more morning stiffness (p=0.002), DMARD use (p=0.02), tender joints (p=0.01), swollen joints (p<0.01), higher ESR (p<0.01) and VAS (p<0.001) at baseline. Decrease of anti-CCP was also predicted by longer disease duration (-4.4 U/ml per year disease duration, p=0.048) and/or no erosions (-2.0 U/ml/month, p<0.01) at baseline, whereas erosive disease predicted an increase (+1.4 U/ml/month, p=0.015) in anti-CCP. Conversely, patients with erosive disease showed a trend to decrease RF (-1.9 U/ml/month, p=0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

In non-rituximab treated RA patients, the association between disease activity and change in autoantibody levels is not static, but strengthens with increase in signs of inflammation (ESR, VAS, swollen joints, tender joints, morning stiffness) at baseline. Therefore, studies of changes in AAb need to consider baseline inflammation as confounder.

THU0271 PERFORMANCE OF THE EULAR/ACR 2019 CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA FOR SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS IN EARLY DISEASE, ACROSS SEXES AND ETHNICITIES

Background:

EULAR/ACR 2019 SLE Classification Criteria were validated in an international cohort.

Objectives:

To evaluate performance characteristics of SLE classification systems in sex, race/ethnicity, and disease duration subsets.

Methods:

Sensitivity and specificity of the EULAR/ACR 2019, SLICC 2012 and ACR 1982/1997 criteria were evaluated in the validation cohort.

Results:

The cohort consisted of female (n=1098), male (n=172), Asian (n=118), Black (n=68), Hispanic (n=124) and White (n=941) patients; and patients with an SLE duration of 1-3 years (n=196), 3-5 years (n=157), and ≥5 years (n=879). Among patients with 1-3 years disease duration, the EULAR/ACR criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria (97% (95%CI 92-99%) vs 81% (95%CI 72-88%). The new criteria performed well in men (sensitivity 93%, specificity 96%) and women (sensitivity 97%, specificity 94%). The new criteria had better sensitivity than the ACR criteria in White (95% vs 83%), Hispanic (100% vs 86%) and Asian patients (97% vs 77%).

Conclusion:

The EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria perform well in patients with early disease, and across sexes and ethnicities.

Disclosure of Interests:

Sindhu Johnson Grant/research support from: Boehringer Ingelheim, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, GlaxoSmithKline, Roche, Merck, Bayer, Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Ikaria, Ralph Brinks: None declared, Karen Costenbader Grant/research support from: Merck, Consultant of: Astra-Zeneca, David Daikh: None declared, Marta Mosca: None declared, Rosalind Ramsey-Goldman: None declared, Josef S. Smolen Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Pfizer, Roche – grant/research support, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen Inc., AstraZeneca, Astro, Celgene Corporation, Celtrion, Eli Lilly, Glaxo, ILTOO, Janssen, Medimmune, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung, Sanofi, UCB – consultant, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Amgen Inc., AstraZeneca, Astro, Celgene Corporation, Celtrion, Eli Lilly, Glaxo, ILTOO, Janssen, Medimmune, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung, Sanofi, UCB – speaker, David Wofsy: None declared, Dimitrios Boumpas Grant/research support from: Unrestricted grant support from various pharmaceutical companies, Diane L Kamen Consultant of: Consulted on SLE survey development for Lilly and consulted on SLE trial protocol development for EMD Serono in 2019, David Jayne Grant/research support from: ChemoCentryx, GSK, Roche/Genentech, Sanofi-Genzyme, Consultant of: Astra-Zeneca, ChemoCentryx, GSK, InflaRx, Takeda, Insmed, Chugai, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Ricard Cervera: None declared, Nathalie Costedoat-Chalumeau Grant/research support from: UCB to my institution, Betty Diamond: None declared, Dafna D Gladman Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen Inc., BMS, Celgene Corporation, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB – grant/research support, Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen Inc., BMS, Celgene Corporation, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB – consultant, Bevra H. Hahn Grant/research support from: Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Falk Hiepe: None declared, Soren Jacobsen: None declared, Dinesh Khanna Shareholder of: Eicos Sciences, Inc./Civi Biopharma, Inc., Grant/research support from: Dr Khanna was supported by NIH/NIAMS K24AR063120, Consultant of: Acceleron, Actelion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Corbus Pharmaceuticals, Horizon Therapeutic, Galapagos, Roche/Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Mitsubishi Tanabe, Sanofi-Aventis/Genzyme, UCB, Kirsten Lerstrom: None declared, Elena Massarotti: None declared, William Joseph McCune: None declared, Guillermo Ruiz-Irastorza: None declared, Jorge Sanchez-Guerrero: None declared, Matthias Schneider: None declared, Murray B Urowitz: None declared, George Bertsias Grant/research support from: GSK, Consultant of: Novartis, Bimba F. Hoyer: None declared, Nicolai Leuchten: None declared, Chiara Tani: None declared, Sara Tedeschi: None declared, Zahi Touma: None declared, Gabriela Schmajuk Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Branimir Anic: None declared, Florence Assan: None declared, Tak Chan: None declared, Ann E Clarke: None declared, Mary K. Crow: None declared, László Czirják Consultant of: Actelion, BI, Roche-Genentech, Lilly, Medac, Novartis, Pfizer, Bayer AG, Andrea Doria Consultant of: GSK, Pfizer, Abbvie, Novartis, Ely Lilly, Speakers bureau: UCB pharma, GSK, Pfizer, Janssen, Abbvie, Novartis, Ely Lilly, BMS, Winfried Graninger: None declared, Bernadett Halda-Kiss: None declared, Sarfaraz Hasni: None declared, Peter Izmirly: None declared, Michelle Jung: None declared, Gabor Kumanovics Consultant of: Boehringer, Teva, Speakers bureau: Roche, Lilly, Novartis, Xavier Mariette: None declared, Ivan Padjen: None declared, Jose M Pego-Reigosa: None declared, Juanita Romero-Diaz Consultant of: Biogen, Iñigo Rua-Figueroa: None declared, Raphaèle Seror Consultant of: BMS, Medimmune, Novartis, Pfizer, GSK, Lilly, Georg Stummvoll: None declared, Yoshiya Tanaka Grant/research support from: Asahi-kasei, Astellas, Mitsubishi-Tanabe, Chugai, Takeda, Sanofi, Bristol-Myers, UCB, Daiichi-Sankyo, Eisai, Pfizer, and Ono, Consultant of: Abbvie, Astellas, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Speakers bureau: Daiichi-Sankyo, Astellas, Chugai, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, AbbVie, YL Biologics, Bristol-Myers, Takeda, Mitsubishi-Tanabe, Novartis, Eisai, Janssen, Sanofi, UCB, and Teijin, Maria Tektonidou Grant/research support from: AbbVie, MSD, Novartis and Pfizer, Consultant of: AbbVie, MSD, Novartis and Pfizer, Carlos Vasconcelos: None declared, Edward Vital Grant/research support from: AstraZeneca, Roche/Genentech, and Sandoz, Consultant of: AstraZeneca, GSK, Roche/Genentech, and Sandoz, Speakers bureau: Becton Dickinson and GSK, Daniel J Wallace: None declared, Sule Yavuz: None declared, Pier Luigi Meroni: None declared, Marvin Fritzler: None declared, Raymond Naden: None declared, Thomas Dörner Grant/research support from: Janssen, Novartis, Roche, UCB, Consultant of: Abbvie, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Roche, Janssen, EMD, Speakers bureau: Eli Lilly, Roche, Samsung, Janssen, Martin Aringer Consultant of: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Speakers bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche

AB0226 USING 3 TESLA MRI WITH A HIGH-RESOLUTION 16-CHANNEL HAND COIL TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN RHEUMATOID AND PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS: A PILOT STUDY

Background:

The differentiation between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is sometimes a challenge for rheumatologists in daily clinical practice. Imaging techniques such as MRI could be a helpful tool for this purpose.

Objectives:

To examine the value of 3 Tesla (T) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with a high-resolution 16-channel hand coil for the differentiation between RA and PsA.

Methods:

A total of 17 patients with active PsA and 27 patients with active RA were evaluated by 3T MRI. Images were analyzed by three readers according to the outcome measures for RA clinical trials (OMERACT) and RA and PsA MRI scores for the presence and intensity of the following MRI features: synovitis, flexor tenosynovitis, bone edema, bone erosion, periarticular inflammation, bone proliferation, and joint space narrowing. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was established for a calculated prediction model comprising age, gender, and the imaging features ‘periarticular inflammation’ and ‘erosion’ of the metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint of the 5th finger.

Results:

PsA could be differentiated from RA by extracapsular inflammatory changes (PsAMRIS sub-score ‘periarticular inflammation’), with a minimal odds ratio (OR) for the outcome ‘not RA’ of 0.06 (p< 0.01) at all MCP joints. The calculated ROC curve had an area under the curve (AUC) of 98.1%.

Conclusion:

3T MRI showed a strong association of extracapsular inflammatory changes with PsA at the MCP joint level, and consequently allowed differentiation between PsA and RA.

Figure 1.

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve with different thresholds for the calculated prediction model for the outcome RA. Area under the curve (AUC) = 98.1%.

Figure 2.

51-year-old female patient with PsA. MR images show flexor tenosynovitis (FS), synovitis (Syn), and periarticular inflammation (PI). A. Sagittal PD fat-saturation of D5. PI at the volar and dorsal aspects at the MCP, PIP, and DIP levels. FS at the PIP and DIP joint levels. Black asterisks indicate PI. Black arrow points to FS. B. Coronal STIR with bone edema (BE) at the proximal portion of PIP3 and 5 accompanied by PI at PIP3 and MCP, PIP and DIP5. Asterisks indicate BE. Arrowheads point to PI. C. Transversal T2 fat-saturation with FS and PI at MCP5. Arrowhead indicates FS, arrow points to volar PI. D. Transversal T1 fat-saturation following iv contrast, with FS and PI at MCP5. Arrowhead indicates FS, arrows points to volar PI.

Disclosure of Interests:

Philipp Sewerin Grant/research support from: AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG

Bristol-Myers Squibb Celgene GmbH

Lilly Deutschland GmbH

Novartis Pharma GmbH Pfizer Deutschland GmbH

Rheumazentrum Rhein-Ruhr, Consultant of: AMGEN GmbH AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG Biogen GmbHBristol-Myers Squibb Celgene GmbH Chugai Pharma arketing Ltd. / Chugai Europe GmbHHexal Pharma Janssen-CilagGmbH Johnson & Johnson Deutschland GmbHLilly Deutschland GmbH / Lilly Europe / Lilly Global Novartis Pharma GmbH Pfizer Deutschland GmbH Roche Pharma Rheumazentrum Rhein-Ruhr Sanofi-Genzyme Deutschland GmbH Swedish Orphan Biovitrum GmbH UCB Pharma GmbH, Speakers bureau: AMGEN GmbH AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG Biogen GmbHBristol-Myers Squibb Celgene GmbH Chugai Pharma arketing Ltd. / Chugai Europe GmbHHexal Pharma Janssen-CilagGmbH Johnson & Johnson Deutschland GmbHLilly Deutschland GmbH / Lilly Europe / Lilly Global Novartis Pharma GmbH Pfizer Deutschland GmbH Roche Pharma Rheumazentrum Rhein-Ruhr Sanofi-Genzyme Deutschland GmbH Swedish Orphan Biovitrum GmbH UCB Pharma GmbH, Daniel Abrar: None declared, Alexander Lautwein: None declared, Stefan Vordenbäumen: None declared, Ralph Brinks: None declared, Christine Goertz: None declared, Miriam Frenken: None declared, Matthias Schneider Grant/research support from: GSK, UCB, Abbvie, Consultant of: Abbvie, Alexion, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Lilly, Sanofi, UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Chugai, GSK, Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, Benedikt Ostendorf: None declared, Christoph Schleich: None declared

AB0375 SAFETY AND BENEFICIAL EFFECTS OF HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE ON PREGNANCY OUTCOMES IN WOMEN WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS

Background:

The use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has long been established in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) and especially as applicable drug during pregnancy. Recently, beneficial effects and safety of HCQ have been re-discussed in the light of a change in the summary of product characteristics in some countries. More current studies are required to provide patients with evidence-based advice regarding this essential drug when counselling for pregnancy.

Objectives:

To examine the impact of HCQ on pregnancy outcomes of SLE women.

Methods:

Pregnancies of women with SLE from an outpatient pregnancy clinic were prospectively evaluated before and throughout gestation. Maternal and fetal outcomes in women without HCQ therapy (group A) were compared to pregnancies under HCQ treatment from 1sttrimester on (group B). A multiple logistic regression was performed with adjustment for confounding factors.

Results:

We enrolled 184 live births from singleton pregnancies in 145 women (n=77 with HCQ and n=107 w/o HCQ). One neonatal death (group B) occurred after severe preeclampsia at 24 weeks of gestation (w/g) linked to noncompliance in a woman with high-risk aPL profile. One child (group B) was born with mycophenolate mofetil embryopathy.

Women in the HCQ group had a significantly lower rate of preterm births [aOR 0.31 (95%-CI: 0.15-0.64), p = 0.026]. Regarding preeclampsia, we found a tendency towards less incidence with the use of HCQ [aOR 0.49 (95%-CI: 0.23-1.03), p = 0.24]. These improved outcomes are opposed by a higher frequency of risk factors in group B (lupus nephritis, high-risk aPL profile, slightly more hypertension) and a tendency towards more severe SLE (expressed in terms of increased use of Azathioprine) (Table 1). Nevertheless, women with HCQ therapy experienced significantly less flares during pregnancy [aOR 0.18 (95%-CI: 0.09-0.38), p = 0.013].

Table 1.

Patient characteristics

All pregnancies (n=184)No HCQ in pregnancy (n=107)HCQ during pregnancy (n=77)Age (years), median (IQR)31.0 (28.0-34.0)31.0 (29.0-34.0)30.0 (27.0-33.0)Hypertension, n (%)29 (15.8%)16 (15.0%)13 (16.9%)Preconception counselling, n (%)122 (66.3%)69 (64.5%)53 (68.8%)SLE disease & therapy characteristicsDisease duration (years), median (IQR)6.7 (2.9-10.3)7.0 (3.0-10.0)6.7 (2.1-11.0)Lupus nephritis*1, n (%)51 (27.7%)25 (23.4%)26 (33.8%)High-risk aPL profile*2, n (%)39 (21.3%)21 (19.8%)18 (23.4%)SLEDAI*1, median (IQR)2.0 (0-4.0)2.0 (0.0-4.0)2.0 (2.0-4.0)Anti-dsDNA, n (%)102 (55.7%)47 (44.3%)55 (71.4%)Anti-SSA/Ro and/or Anti-SSB/La, n (%)91 (49.7%)55 (51.9%)36 (46.8%)Azathioprine*1, n (%)38 (20.7%)18 (16.8%)20 (26.0%)Low dose Aspirin*3, n (%)74 (41.1%)34 (32.7%)40 (52.6%)Obstetrical historyNulliparous, n (%)113 (61.4%)63 (58.9%)50 (64.9%)Previous fetal loss, n (%)39 (21.2%)22 (20.6%)17 (22.1%)Previous (pre-)eclampsia or HELLP, n (%)14 (7.6%)8 (7.5%)6 (7.8%)Previous congenital heart block, n (%)1 (0.54%)-1 (1.3%)Pregnancy outcome(mild-moderate) flare*4, n (%)44 (29.5%)30 (34.9%)14 (22.2%)Preterm birth*5, n (%)46 (25%)30 (28.0%)16 (20.8%)Preeclampsia, n (%)24 (13%)15 (14.0%)9 (11.7%)Intrauterine growth restriction, n (%)3 (1.7%)1 (1.0%)2 (2.6%)Congenital heart block, n (%)1 (0.54%)-1 (1.3%)

*1last visit before pregnancy, *2according to the 2019 EULAR recommendations,*3until 16 w/g,*4increase in SLEPDAI ≥ 4 or increase in prednisolone ≥ 5mg/d,*5< 37 w/g

Conclusion:

In our cohort, SLE women with additional risk factors achieved a favourable pregnancy outcome. This encouraging result is in part attributable to pregnancy counselling with the advice to continue HCQ throughout gestation.

Disclosure of Interests:

Isabell Haase Grant/research support from: Abbvie, Medac, Hexal, Pfizer, Ralph Brinks: None declared, Matthias Schneider Grant/research support from: GSK, UCB, Abbvie, Consultant of: Abbvie, Alexion, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Lilly, Sanofi, UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Chugai, GSK, Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, Rebecca Fischer-Betz Consultant of: UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Amgen, Biogen, BMS, Celgene, Chugai, GSK, Janssen, Lilly, Medac, MSD, Novartis, Roche, UCB, Pfizer.

OP0182 PROTEOGLYCAN LOSS IN ARTICULAR CARTILAGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH JOINT INFLAMMATION SEVERITY IN PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS – A COMPOSITIONAL MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING STUDY

Background:

Even though cartilage loss is a known feature of psoriatic arthritis (PsA), little is known about its role in the pathogenesis of PsA. Using delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of cartilage (dGEMRIC) as a non-invasive marker of the tissue’s proteoglycan content, such early (i.e. pre-morphological) changes have been associated with inflammation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Yet, this association has not been studied before in PsA.

Objectives:

Is the severity of local joint inflammation associated to local proteoglycan loss in PsA patients?

Methods:

Metacarpophalangeal (MCP), proximal interphalangeal (PIP), and distal interphalangeal (DIP) joints of 17 patients with active PsA were evaluated by high-resolution clinical standard morphological and dGEMRIC sequences using a 3T MRI scanner (Magnetom Skyra, Siemens) and a dedicated 16-channel hand coil. Images were analyzed by two independent raters for dGEMRIC indices, PsA MRI scores (PsAMRIS) and total cartilage thickness (TCT). Kendall-Tau correlation coefficients (τ) were calculated.

Results:

We found significant negative correlations between dGEMRIC indices and total PsAMRIS (τ = -0.5, p= 0.012), synovitis (τ = -0.56, p= 0.006), flexor tenosynovitis (τ = -0.4, p= 0.049), and periarticular inflammation (τ = -0.72, p< 0.001). Significant positive correlations were found between TCT and dGEMRIC indices in all joint levels (τ = 0.43, p<0.001). No significant correlations were determined between dGEMRIC indices and bone erosion, bone edema or bone proliferation.

Conclusion:

In PsA, proteoglycan loss as assessed by dGEMRIC is associated with periarticular inflammation, synovitis, and flexor tenosynovitis, but not with bone erosion or proliferation, thereby highlighting the need for effective anti-inflammatory treatment regimes. Beyond morphology, advanced MRI techniques may be used to assess cartilage composition in PsA and to identify early changes in cartilage as an imaging biomarker with potential application in detection and monitoring of PsA.

Figure 1

Right hand of a 26-year-old male with psoriatic arthritis Coronal STIR image (A) of digits 1-5, transversal fat-saturated (fs) T2-weighted image of digits 2-4 (B) and the corresponding transversal fs contrast-enhanced T1-weighted image (C) at the distal portion of the proximal phalanges. Horizontal white bar in (A) indicates level of transversal slices (B) & (C). Sagittal fs Proton Density-weighted image of the third digit (D). A: Increased signal at the collateral ligaments and synovitis of the proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joint of the third digit (white arrow). Periarticular inflammation around the PIP joint and the body of the proximal phalanx of the third digit (arrowhead). B & C: Extensive flexor tenosynovitis (asterix) and periarticular inflammation in the subcutaneous tissues (arrowhead) alongside thickened flexor tendon pulleys (arrow). D & E: Representative sagittal T1-weighted images of the MCP, PIP and DIP joint of the 3rd digit. Following iv contrast administration and appropriate delay of 40 min, A gives the morphological T1 map, while B gives the corresponding parameter map with dGEMRIC values [ms] overlaid. Note the significant decrease in dGEMRIC indices of the PIP joint as compared to the MCP joint.

Disclosure of Interests:

Philipp Sewerin Grant/research support from: AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG

Bristol-Myers Squibb Celgene GmbH

Lilly Deutschland GmbH

Novartis Pharma GmbH Pfizer Deutschland GmbH

Rheumazentrum Rhein-Ruhr, Consultant of: AMGEN GmbH AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG Biogen GmbHBristol-Myers Squibb Celgene GmbH Chugai Pharma arketing Ltd. / Chugai Europe GmbHHexal Pharma Janssen-CilagGmbH Johnson & Johnson Deutschland GmbHLilly Deutschland GmbH / Lilly Europe / Lilly Global Novartis Pharma GmbH Pfizer Deutschland GmbH Roche Pharma Rheumazentrum Rhein-Ruhr Sanofi-Genzyme Deutschland GmbH Swedish Orphan Biovitrum GmbH UCB Pharma GmbH, Speakers bureau: AMGEN GmbH AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG Biogen GmbHBristol-Myers Squibb Celgene GmbH Chugai Pharma arketing Ltd. / Chugai Europe GmbHHexal Pharma Janssen-CilagGmbH Johnson & Johnson Deutschland GmbHLilly Deutschland GmbH / Lilly Europe / Lilly Global Novartis Pharma GmbH Pfizer Deutschland GmbH Roche Pharma Rheumazentrum Rhein-Ruhr Sanofi-Genzyme Deutschland GmbH Swedish Orphan Biovitrum GmbH UCB Pharma GmbH, Daniel Abrar: None declared, Sven Nebelung: None declared, Miriam Frenken: None declared, Tim Ulrich: None declared, Karl Ludger Radke: None declared, Gerald Antoch: None declared, Stefan Vordenbäumen: None declared, Ralph Brinks: None declared, Matthias Schneider Grant/research support from: GSK, UCB, Abbvie, Consultant of: Abbvie, Alexion, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Gilead, Lilly, Sanofi, UCB, Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Astra Zeneca, BMS, Chugai, GSK, Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, Benedikt Ostendorf: None declared, Christoph Schleich: None declared