Minimizing COVID-19 Transmission Cases: Do Policies and Institutions Matter?

This paper examines the effects of institutional factors and government policy responses on COVID-19 infection cases. It applies the Random Effects (RE) and GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimation techniques to panel data to explore the relationship between COVID-19 cases on the one hand and institutions and government policy responses on the other. The paper finds that the nature and timing of policy responses matter and that institutions play a crucial role in explaining observed infection cases across countries. The results also indicate that high population density and previous experience with infectious diseases are important factors in explaining infection cases across countries. One of the policy implications of our findings is the importance of timely policy intervention at the national level in reducing infection cases.

Pandemic (COVID‐19) Policy, Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network†

In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVC) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020), which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks will increase significantly when several countries in the region experience the pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as maintaining service linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVC will be valuable in the post‐pandemic recovery of the region.