Predicted clinical and economic burden associated with reduction in access to acute coronary interventional care during the COVID-19 lockdown in two European countries

AIMS

As a consequence of untimely or missed revascularization of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients during the COVID-19 pandemic, many patients died at home or survived with serious sequelae, resulting in potential long-term worse prognosis and related health-economic implications.This analysis sought to predict long-term health outcomes [survival and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] and cost of reduced treatment of STEMIs occurring during the first COVID-19 lockdown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using a Markov decision-analytic model, we incorporated probability of hospitalization, timeliness of PCI, and projected long-term survival and cost (including societal costs) of mortality and morbidity, for STEMI occurring during the first UK and Spanish lockdowns, comparing them with expected pre-lockdown outcomes for an equivalent patient group.STEMI patients during the first UK lockdown were predicted to lose an average of 1.55 life-years and 1.17 QALYs compared with patients presenting with a STEMI pre-pandemic. Based on an annual STEMI incidence of 49 332 cases, the total additional lifetime costs calculated at the population level were £36.6 million (€41.3 million), mainly driven by costs of work absenteeism. Similarly in Spain, STEMI patients during the lockdown were expected to survive 2.03 years less than pre-pandemic patients, with a corresponding reduction in projected QALYs (-1.63). At the population level, reduced PCI access would lead to additional costs of €88.6 million.

CONCLUSION

The effect of a 1-month lockdown on STEMI treatment led to a reduction in survival and QALYs compared to the pre-pandemic era. Moreover, in working-age patients, untimely revascularization led to adverse prognosis, affecting societal productivity and therefore considerably increasing societal costs.

Evolving Use of Health Technology Assessment in Medical Device Procurement-Global Systematic Review: An ISPOR Special Interest Group Report

OBJECTIVES

To review the current academic evidence describing how data from health technology assessments (HTAs) informs procurement decisions for medical devices.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed to identify relevant studies and criteria used in medical device purchasing or procurement decisions. Included articles were screened for relevancy and risk of bias. The included studies were summarized qualitatively.

RESULTS

A total of 292 studies were screened, of which 11 matched the inclusion criteria. Included studies' geographies and HTA maturity varied. Some studies described hospital-level HTA processes, whereas others focused on national-level recommendations. Criteria for procurement decisions included standard HTA factors, such as efficacy, cost, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact; broader issues were also noted, including impact on the organization, ethical aspects, staff workload, and volume. There was little consideration of device-specific characteristics, such as life cycle, learning curve, or incremental technical innovation. Few decisions referred to HTA reports as part of the procurement decision; similarly, few HTA reports included a procurement perspective to help guide the procurement bodies.

CONCLUSIONS

There is minimal evidence that notes HTA influencing medical device procurement. Procurement bodies and hospitals may not be incentivized to publish their work and transparency could be improved; further research would better describe the link between HTA and procurement. Such research would enable the HTA agencies to meaningfully assess devices to target procurement bodies and allow device sponsors to prioritize evidence. This could limit redundancy, improve evidence, and ultimately promote savings to healthcare systems and expand access.

Socioeconomic effects of establishing a new stroke center in Central Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Establishment of dedicated Stroke Centers has shown to be effective on the outcome of patients with acute ischemic stroke, as well as mechanical thrombectomy (MTE) in acute large vessel occlusion. The cost-effectiveness of this treatment has also been proven in several countries, but so far not in Switzerland.

METHODS

We compare the pathways and economic impact of patients with acute large vessel occlusions causing acute ischemic stroke before the establishment of the stroke center and MTE in 2016 with the time afterwards in the years 2016-2020. Local data from the Swiss Stroke Registry and hospital accounting as well as economic data from a healthcare insurance company was used for evaluation in an economic model. Both payer and societal perspectives were considered, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to explore uncertainty.

RESULTS

Establishment of a new Stroke Center in Central Switzerland increased the absolute number of thrombectomies from 0 in 2015 to 55 in 2016 to 83 in 2020, as well as the percentage of MTE in large vessel occlusions (LVO) from 50.9% in 2016 to 58.2% in 2020. Over a 15-year horizon, predicted average additional costs of CHF 7,978 were associated with the establishment of a new stroke center, as well as 0.60 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) per patient and an additional survival of 0.59 years per patient. The calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was therefore CHF 13,297 per QALY gained. When societal costs were included, the new stroke care model was predicted to dominate the old care model. Robustness of model results was confirmed via probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

LIMITATIONS

The results rely on data from a single stroke center and, therefore, cannot be generalized.

CONCLUSIONS

Establishment of a new Stroke Center can be cost-effective and provide better outcomes in terms of functional independence as well as quality-adjusted life-years.

Cost-effectiveness of 4 mg dibotermin alfa/absorbable collagen sponge versus iliac crest bone graft for lumbar degenerative disc disease in the United Kingdom

AIMS

To develop a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 4 mg dibotermin alfa/absorbable collagen sponge (ACS) versus iliac crest bone graft (ICBG) in patients with lumbar degenerative disc disease in the United Kingdom.

MATERIALS & METHODS

A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to calculate costs and quality-adjusted life-years over a 4-year time horizon in each treatment group, from a United Kingdom National Health Service perspective. An individual patient data meta-analysis was undertaken to synthesize data from four randomized controlled trials and two single-arm studies concerning health-related quality of life and procedural resource use. Current cost data from the United Kingdom were then applied to determine the overall mean cost per patient in each group. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore the impact of parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

The model predicted 4-year discounted cost savings of £192 per patient treated with dibotermin alfa/ACS, compared with ICBG, and a gain of 0.0114 QALYs per patient over the same time period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were most sensitive to variability in the differences in health-related quality of life and secondary surgery rate, with dibotermin alfa/ACS having a 60% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained.

LIMITATIONS

There is uncertainty in the difference in cost and QALYs between the two groups. However, comprehensive sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore this and present the results in a transparent manner.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide an economic case for the use of 4 mg dibotermin alfa/ACS versus iliac crest bone graft, with additional health benefits predicted at reduced overall cost.

Resource Use and Cost of Subcutaneous Nerve Stimulation Versus Optimized Medical Management in Patients With Failed Back Surgery Syndrome: An Analysis of the SubQStim Study

OBJECTIVES

To undertake a detailed healthcare resource use and cost analysis of the SubQStim study, which randomized patients with failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) with low back pain to receive subcutaneous nerve field stimulation in combination with optimized medical management (treatment) or optimized medical management alone (control).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient-level data from the SubQStim study were used to present descriptive analyses of healthcare resource use and estimated costs for pain medication, healthcare visits, adverse events, and device acquisition/implantation. A United Kingdom National Health Service perspective was adopted, using cost data from national tariffs, drug and device prices, and social care cost studies. Results were calculated as the mean cost per patient over the nine-month follow-up period.

RESULTS

Mean cost per patient was £18,403 in the treatment group versus £1613 in the control group. Almost 90% of the cost in the treatment group consisted of device acquisition/implantation. Higher adverse event costs were observed for patients in the treatment group, but lower costs were observed for pain medication and healthcare visits. Over nine months, opioid use decreased in the treatment group and increased in the control group. Enrolment and follow-up were terminated early in the clinical study, leading to substantial between-patient variability in each cost category.

CONCLUSIONS

Subcutaneous nerve field stimulation has the potential to offset the initial costs of the device by reducing analgesic medication and the number of healthcare visits in FBSS patients, alongside potential gains in health-related quality of life. There remains uncertainty in long-term costs and cost-effectiveness of stimulation and longer-term follow-up analyses are needed.

Burden of oral anticoagulation in embolic stroke of undetermined source without atrial fibrillation

Objective

Prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is challenging. The advent of safer anticoagulation in the form of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has prompted exploration of prophylactic anticoagulation for all ESUS patients, rather than anticoagulating just those with documented atrial fibrillation (AF). However, recent trials have failed to demonstrate a clinical benefit, while observing increased bleeding. We modeled the economic impact of anticoagulating ESUS patients without documented AF across multiple geographies.

Methods

CRYSTAL-AF trial data were used to assess ischaemic stroke event rates in ESUS patients confirmed AF-free after long-term monitoring. Anticipated bleeding event rates (including both minor and major bleeds) with aspirin, dabigatran 150 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg were sourced from published meta-analyses, whilst a 30% ischaemic stroke reduction for both DOACs was assumed. Cost data for clinical events and pharmaceuticals were collected from the local payer perspective.

Results

Compared with aspirin, dabigatran and rivaroxaban resulted in 17.9 and 29.9 additional bleeding events per 100 patients over a patient’s lifetime, respectively. Despite incorporating into our model the proposed 30% reduction in ischaemic stroke risk, both DOACs were cost-additive over patient lifetime, as the costs of bleeding events and pharmaceuticals outweighed cost savings associated with the reduction in ischaemic strokes. DOACs added £5953–£7018 per patient (UK), €6683–€7368 (Netherlands), €4933–€9378 (Spain), AUD$5353–6539 (Australia) and $26,768–$32,259 (US) of payer cost depending on the agent prescribed. Additionally, in the U.S. patient pharmacy co-payments ranged from $2468–$12,844 depending on agent and patient plan. In all settings, cost-savings could not be demonstrated even when the modelling assumed 100% protection from recurrent ischaemic strokes, due to the very low underlying risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke in this population (1.27 per 100 patient-years).

Conclusions

Anticoagulation of non-AF patients may cause excess bleeds and add substantial costs for uncertain benefits, suggesting a personalised approach to anticoagulation in ESUS patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-01967-x.

Cost-effectiveness of balloon kyphoplasty and vertebroplasty versus conservative medical management in the USA

The cost-effectiveness of surgical versus conservative medical management of vertebral compression fractures in the US was analyzed in the context of inpatient versus outpatient treatment. Surgical intervention (balloon kyphoplasty and vertebroplasty) was found to be cost-effective relative to conservative medical management at a US willingness-to-pay threshold.

INTRODUCTION

To date, only one published study has evaluated the cost-effectiveness (C/E) of balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) or vertebroplasty (VP) in US Medicare patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures. This study further evaluates the C/E of surgical treatment vs. conservative medical management (CMM), expanding on prior modeling by accounting for quality-adjusted life-years gained.

METHODS

A Markov microsimulation model of 1000 patients was constructed. Cost data were based on an analysis of Medicare claims payments, with propensity-score matching performed for BKP and VP vs. controls (CMM). Mortality inputs were based on US life tables, modified to account for age at initial fracture, presence of subsequent fracture(s), and relative risk of mortality by treatment. Separate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for BKP and VP in inpatient and outpatient surgical treatment locations to account for individual clinical profiles presenting to each.

RESULTS

The discounted ICER for inpatient BKP vs. CMM was $43,455 per QALY gained; for outpatient BKP vs. CMM, $10,922; for inpatient VP vs. CMM, $39,774; and for outpatient VP vs. CMM, $12,293. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that both BKP and VP would be considered C/E vs. CMM at a US willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000/QALY in 80% and 100% of 500 model simulations, respectively. The most sensitive parameters included quality of life estimates and hazard ratios for mortality.

CONCLUSION

While VP and BKP are more expensive treatment options than CMM in the short term, model results suggest interventional treatment is cost-effective, among patients eligible for surgery, at a US WTP threshold. This conclusion supports those from economic analyses conducted in EU-member countries.

Workforce requirements for comprehensive ischaemic stroke care in a developing country: the case of Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Ischaemic stroke care requires a co-ordinated multi-disciplinary approach to optimise patient outcomes. Current care provision in Saudi Arabia is below international recommendations, and with increasing patient numbers, variable access to new therapies, and sub-optimal co-ordination of staff, the Kingdom's Ministry of Health has prioritised strategies to develop stroke care. Our objective was to use local epidemiological data to predict stroke incidence and to combine this with international staffing recommendations to estimate future staff requirements and their costs over a 10-year period.

METHODS

We researched existing stroke services and staff availability within Saudi Arabia to establish current provision, undertook epidemiological modelling to predict stroke incidence, and used international staffing recommendations for acute and rehabilitation services to develop a care pathway to provide state-of-the-art stroke services. This information was used to determine the additional staff requirements, and their costs, across the Kingdom.

RESULTS

Our research concluded that current staff numbers and services are inadequate to cope with the projected increase in the number of stroke cases. In order to provide acute and rehabilitation services which use the latest technologies, re-organisation of existing staff and services would be required, together with significant investment in new staff across several disciplines. An estimated additional 43.8 full-time equivalent stroke neurologists would be required, plus 53.5 full-time equivalent interventional neuroradiologists in addition to expansion of occupational therapy and psychology services. The total cost of additional staff over 10 years was estimated to be 862 390 778 Saudi Riyals ($229 970 874).

CONCLUSIONS

Providing high-quality care for ischaemic stroke patients would involve significant investment in new staff in Saudi Arabia. Further research is required on the applicability of international staffing ratios to countries where there is a significant workforce gap. Nevertheless, this analysis provides a framework to inform stroke care planning and can be adapted to other regions or countries.

Intrinsic properties of medical devices: considerations for economic evaluation

Introduction: In recent decades, medical devices (MDs) have increasingly become an integral part of patient care. However, when it comes to designing and appraising economic models, researchers typically follow pharmaceutical templates (e.g. CHEERS) to assess their economic viability. This study evaluates the generalizability of four device-specific criteria, as recommended by the recent MedtechHTA project, of learning curve, incremental innovation, dynamic pricing, and organizational impact with a broader group of MDs including diagnostics and implantables. The purpose was to determine the applicability of these criteria to a broader range of MDs.Areas Covered: We determined the extent to which these criteria could be applied to each device type and attempted to identify common themes. We performed a literature search using PubMed and Google of a range of devices to understand the clinical significance, operation, and economic viability.Expert Opinion: Our findings suggest that the four characteristics are not applicable to all device types. Prior evaluation of a device's intrinsic properties (such as longevity and device location) and its FDA risk classification could help to indicate the applicability of the criteria. Documenting this process when assessing the additional four criteria on the CHEERS checklist would improve the transparency of future economic evaluations.

A national economic and clinical model for ischemic stroke care development in Saudi Arabia: A call for change

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a significant burden in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Ministry of Health's stroke committee has identified an urgent need to improve care.

AIM

The purpose of this study was to undertake a health-economic analysis to quantify the impact of developing stroke care in the country.

METHODS

An economic model was developed to assess the costs and clinical outcomes associated with an ischemic stroke care development program compared with current stroke care. Based on Saudi epidemiological data, cohorts of ischemic stroke patients enter the model each year for the first 10 years based on increasing incidence. Four treatment options were modeled including reperfusion and non-reperfusion treatments. The development scenario estimates the impact of gradually increasing uptake of more effective treatments over 10 years. Changes in the stroke care organization are considered along with resources required to increase capacity, allowing more patients to be admitted to stroke hospitals and access effective treatments.

RESULTS

The stroke care development program is associated with an increase in functionally independent patients and a decrease in disabling strokes compared with current stroke care. Additionally, the development program is associated with estimated cost savings of $602 million over 15 years ($255 million direct costs, $348 million indirect costs).

CONCLUSIONS

The model predicts that the stroke care development program is associated with improved patient outcomes and lower overall costs compared with the current stroke care program.

Cost-effectiveness of TYRX absorbable antibacterial envelope for prevention of cardiovascular implantable electronic device infection

AIMS

Infection is a major complication of cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) therapy that usually requires device extraction and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The TYRX Antibacterial Envelope is a polypropylene mesh that stabilizes the CIED and elutes minocycline and rifampin to reduce the risk of post-operative infection.

METHODS

A decision tree was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of TYRX vs standard of care (SOC) following implantation of four CIED device types. The model was parameterized for a UK National Health Service perspective. Probabilities were derived from the literature. Resource use included drug acquisition and administration, hospitalization, adverse events, device extraction, and replacement. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated from costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

Over a 12-month time horizon, TYRX was less costly and more effective than SOC when utilized in patients with an ICD or CRT-D. TYRX was associated with ICERs of £46,548 and £21,768 per QALY gained in patients with an IPG or CRT-P, respectively. TYRX was cost-effective at a £30,000 threshold at baseline probabilities of infection exceeding 1.65% (CRT-D), 1.95% (CRT-P), 1.87% (IPG), and 1.38% (ICD).

LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Device-specific infection rates for high-risk patients were not available in the literature and not used in this analysis, potentially under-estimating the impact of TYRX in certain devices. Nevertheless, TYRX is associated with a reduction in post-operative infection risk relative to SOC, resulting in reduced healthcare resource utilization at an initial cost. The ICERs are below the accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds used by UK decision-makers. TYRX, therefore, represents a cost-effective prevention option for CIED patients at high-risk of post-operative infection.

Global health resource utilization associated with pacemaker complications

AIM

To estimate health resource utilization (HRU) associated with the management of pacemaker complications in various healthcare systems.

METHODS

Electrophysiologists (EPs) from four geographical regions (Western Europe, Australia, Japan, and North America) were invited to participate. Survey questions focused on HRU in the management of three chronic pacemaker complications (i.e. pacemaker infections requiring extraction, lead fractures/insulation breaches requiring replacement, and upper extremity deep venous thrombosis [DVT]). Panelists completed a maximum of two web-based surveys (iterative rounds). Mean, median values, and interquartile ranges were calculated and used to establish consensus.

RESULTS

Overall, 32 and 29 panelists participated in the first and second rounds of the Delphi panel, respectively. Consensus was reached on treatment and HRU associated with a typical pacemaker implantation and complications. HRU was similar across regions, except for Japan, where panelists reported the longest duration of hospital stay in all scenarios. Infections were the most resource-intensive complications and were characterized by intravenous antibiotics days of 9.6?13.5 days and 21.3?29.2 days for pocket and lead infections respectively; laboratory and diagnostic tests, and system extraction and replacement procedures. DVT, on the other hand, was the least resource intensive complication.

LIMITATIONS

The results of the panel represent the views of the respondents who participated and may not be generalizable outside of this panel. The surveys were limited in scope and, therefore, did not include questions on management of acute complications (e.g. hematoma, pneumothorax).

CONCLUSIONS

The Delphi technique provided a reliable and efficient approach to estimating resource utilization associated with chronic pacemaker complications. Estimates from the Delphi panel can be used to generate costs of pacemaker complications in various regions.

Financial impact of adopting implantable loop recorder diagnostic for unexplained syncope compared with conventional diagnostic pathway in Portugal

Background

To estimate the short- and long-term financial impact of early referral for implantable loop recorder diagnostic (ILR) versus conventional diagnostic pathway (CDP) in the management of unexplained syncope (US) in the Portuguese National Health Service (PNHS).

Methods

A Markov model was developed to estimate the expected number of hospital admissions due to US and its respective financial impact in patients implanted with ILR versus CDP. The average cost of a syncope episode admission was estimated based on Portuguese cost data and landmark papers. The financial impact of ILR adoption was estimated for a total of 197 patients with US, based on the number of syncope admissions per year in the PNHS. Sensitivity analysis was performed to take into account the effect of uncertainty in the input parameters (hazard ratio of death; number of syncope events per year; probabilities and unit costs of each diagnostic test; probability of trauma and yield of diagnosis) over three-year and lifetime horizons.

Results

The average cost of a syncope event was estimated to be between 1,760€ and 2,800€. Over a lifetime horizon, the total discounted costs of hospital admissions and syncope diagnosis for the entire cohort were 23% lower amongst patients in the ILR group compared with the CDP group (1,204,621€ for ILR, versus 1,571,332€ for CDP).

Conclusion

The utilization of ILR leads to an earlier diagnosis and lower number of syncope hospital admissions and investigations, thus allowing significant cost offsets in the Portuguese setting. The result is robust to changes in the input parameter values, and cost savings become more pronounced over time.

The cost-effectiveness of deep brain stimulation in combination with best medical therapy, versus best medical therapy alone, in advanced Parkinson's disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a complex progressive movement disorder leading to motor and non-motor symptoms that become increasingly debilitating as the disease advances, considerably reducing quality of life. Advanced treatment options include deep brain stimulation (DBS). While clinical effectiveness of DBS has been demonstrated in a number of randomised controlled trials (RCT), evidence on cost-effectiveness is limited. The cost-effectiveness of DBS combined with BMT, versus BMT alone, was evaluated from a UK payer perspective. Individual patient-level data on the effect of DBS on PD symptom progression from a large 6-month RCT were used to develop a Markov model representing clinical progression and capture treatment effect and costs. A 5-year time horizon was used, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and uncertainty assessed in deterministic sensitivity analyses. Total discounted costs in the DBS and BMT groups over 5 years were £68,970 and £48,243, respectively, with QALYs of 2.21 and 1.21, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20,678 per QALY gained. Utility weights in each health state and costs of on-going medication appear to be the key drivers of uncertainty in the model. The results suggest that DBS is a cost-effective intervention in patients with advanced PD who are eligible for surgery, providing good value for money to health care payers.

The use of irinotecan, oxaliplatin and raltitrexed for the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer: systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate three technologies for the management of advanced colorectal cancer: (1) first-line irinotecan combination [with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)] or second-line monotherapy; (2) first- or second-line oxaliplatin combination (again, with 5-FU); and (3) raltitrexed, where 5-FU is inappropriate. To examine the role of irinotecan and oxaliplatin in reducing the extent of incurable disease before curative surgery (downstaging).

SOURCES

Ten electronic bibliographic databases covering the period up to August 2004.

METHODS

Searches identified existing studies of the effectiveness and economics of the technologies and any studies that evaluated any of the indications outlined above were included. Data were extracted and assessed generic components of methodological quality. Survival outcomes were meta-analysed.

RESULTS

Seventeen trials were found, of varying methodological quality. Compared with 5-FU, first-line irinotecan improved overall survival (OS) by 2-4 months (p=0.0007), progression-free survival (PFS) by 2-3 months (p<0.00001) and response rates (p<0.001). It offered a different toxicity profile and no quality of life (QoL) advantage. However, second-line irinotecan compared with 5-FU improved OS by 2 months (p=0.035) and PFS by 1 month (p=0.03), and provided a better partial response rate, but with more toxicities and no QoL advantage. Compared with second-line best supportive care, irinotecan improved OS by 2 months (p=0.0001), had a different toxicity profile and maintained baseline QoL longer, but with no overall difference. The addition of oxaliplatin to second-line 5-FU is associated with a borderline significant improvement in overall survival (p<0.07); a significantly higher response rate (<0.0001); and more serious toxicities. There is no evidence for a significant difference in QoL. Schedules with treatment breaks may not reduce clinical effectiveness but reduce toxicity. The addition of oxaliplatin to second-line 5-FU also saw no improvement in OS (p<0.07), better PFS (by 2.1 months, p=0.0001), an 8.9% higher response rate (p<0.0001), more toxicities and no QoL advantage. There was no significant difference in OS or PFS between first-line irinotecan and oxaliplatin combinations except when 5-FU was delivered by bolus injection, when oxaliplatin provided better OS (p=0.032) and response rates (p=0.032), but not PFS (p=0.169). The regimens had different toxicity profiles and neither conferred a QoL advantage. When compared to 5-FU, raltitrexed is associated with no significant difference in overall or progression-free survival; no significant difference in response rates; more vomiting and nausea, but less diarrhoea and mucositis; no significant difference in, or worse QoL. Raltitrexed treatment was cut short in two out of four included trials due to excess toxic deaths. 5-FU followed by irinotecan was inferior to any other sequence. First-line irinotecan/5-FU combination improved OS and PFS, although further unplanned therapy exaggerated the OS effect size. Staged combination therapy (combination oxaliplatin followed by combination irinotecan or vice versa) provided the best OS and PFS, although there was no head-to-head comparison against other treatment plans. In the only trial to use three active chemotherapies in any staged combination, median OS was over 20 months. In another study, the longest median OS from a treatment plan using two active agents was 16.2 months. Where irinotecan or oxaliplatin were used with 5-FU to downstage people with unresectable liver metastases, studies consistently showed response rates of around 50%. Resection rates ranged from 9 to 35% with irinotecan and from 7 to 51% with oxaliplatin. In the one study that compared the regimens, oxaliplatin enabled more resections (p=0.02). Five-year OS rates of 5-26% and disease-free survival rates of 3-11% were reported in studies using oxaliplatin. Alone or in combination, 5-FU was more effective and less toxic when delivered by continuous infusion. Existing economic models were weak because of the use of unplanned second-line therapies in their trial data: the survival benefits in patients on such trials cannot be uniquely attributed to the allocated therapy. Consequently, the economic analyses are either limited to the use of PES (at best, a surrogate outcome) or are subject to confounding. Weaknesses in cost components, the absence of direct in-trial utility estimates and the limited use of sensitivity analysis were identified. Improvements to the methodologies used in existing economic studies are presented. Using data from two trials that planned treatment sequences, an independent economic evaluation of six plans compared with first-line 5-FU followed on progression by second-line irinotecan monotherapy (NHS standard treatment) is presented. 5-FU followed on progression by irinotecan combination cost 13,174 pounds per life-year gained (LYG) and 10,338 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Irinotecan combination followed on progression by additional second-line therapies was estimated to cost 12,418 pounds per LYG and 13,630 pounds per QALY gained. 5-FU followed on progression by oxaliplatin combination was estimated to cost 23,786 pounds per LYG and 31,556 pounds per QALY gained. Oxaliplatin combination followed on progression by additional second-line therapies was estimated to cost 43,531 pounds per LYG and 67,662 pounds per QALY gained. Evaluations presented in this paragraph should be interpreted with caution owing to missing information on the costs of salvage therapies in the trial from which data were drawn. Irinotecan combination followed on progression by oxaliplatin combination cost 12,761 pounds per LYG and 16,663 pounds per QALY gained. Oxaliplatin combination followed on progression by irinotecan combination cost 16,776 pounds per LYG and 21,845 pounds per QALY gained. The evaluation suggests that these two sequences have a cost-effectiveness profile that is favourable in comparison to other therapies currently funded by the NHS. However, the differences in OS observed between the two trials from which data were taken may be a result of heterogeneous patient populations, unbalanced protocol-driven intensity biases or other differences between underlying health service delivery systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with three active therapies appears most clinically effective and cost-effective. NHS routine data could be used to validate downstaging findings and a meta-analysis using individual patient-level data is suggested to validate the optimal treatment sequence.

Option appraisal of population-based colorectal cancer screening programmes in England

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and resource impact of faecal occult blood testing (FOBT) and flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) screening options for colorectal cancer to inform the Department of Health's policy on bowel cancer screening in England.

METHODS

We developed a state transition model to simulate the life experience of a cohort of individuals without polyps or cancer through to the development of adenomatous polyps and malignant carcinoma and subsequent death in the general population of England. The costs, effects and resource impact of five screening options were evaluated: (a) FOBT for individuals aged 50-69 (biennial screening); (b) FOBT for individuals aged 60-69 (biennial screening); (c) once-only FSIG for individuals aged 55; (d) once-only FSIG for individuals aged 60; and (e) once-only FSIG for individuals aged 60, followed by FOBT for individuals aged 61-70 (biennial screening).

RESULTS

The model suggests that screening using FSIG with or without FOBT may be cost-saving and may produce additional benefits compared with a policy of no screening. The marginal cost-effectiveness of FOBT options compared to a policy of no screening is estimated to be below pound3000 per quality adjusted life year gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening using FOBT and/or FSIG is potentially a cost-effective strategy for the early detection of colorectal cancer. However, the practical feasibility of alternative screening programmes is inevitably limited by current pressures on endoscopy services.

The clinical and cost-effectiveness of oxaliplatin and capecitabine for the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer: systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of oxaliplatin in combination with 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin (5-FU/LV), and capecitabine monotherapy (within their licensed indications), as adjuvant therapies in the treatment of patients with Stage III (Dukes' C) colon cancer after complete surgical resection of the primary tumour, as compared with adjuvant chemotherapy with an established fluorouracil-containing regimen.

DATA SOURCES

Ten electronic bibliographic databases were searched from inception to January 2005. Searches were supplemented by hand searching relevant articles, sponsor and other submissions of evidence to the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence and conference proceedings.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis (where appropriate) of clinical efficacy evidence and a cost-effectiveness review and economic modelling were carried out. Marginal costs, life years gained and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were estimated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to generate information on the likelihood that each of the interventions was optimal.

RESULTS

Three randomised active-controlled trials, of varying methodological quality, were included in the review. The MOSAIC trial and NSABP C-07 study considered the addition of oxaliplatin to adjuvant treatment (albeit administered in different 5-FU/LV regimens) and the X-ACT study compared oral capecitabine with bolus 5-FU/LV alone. A review of the available evidence indicated that in patients with Stage III colon cancer, oxaliplatin in combination with an infusional de Gramont schedule of 5-FU/LV (FOLFOX4) was more effective in preventing and delaying disease recurrence than infusional 5-FU/LV alone (de Gramont regimen). Serious adverse events and treatment discontinuations due to toxicity were more evident with oxaliplatin-based regimens (FOLFOX4 and FLOX regimen) than infusional or bolus 5-FU/LV alone (de Gramont and Roswell Park regimen). Oral capecitabine was at least equivalent in disease-free survival to the bolus Mayo Clinic 5-FU/LV regimen for patients with resected Stage III colon cancer. Although, the safety and tolerability profile of capecitabine was superior to that of the Mayo Clinic 5-FU/LV regimen, it has not been evaluated in comparison with other less toxic 5-FU/LV regimens currently in common use in the UK. Based on the assumptions and survival analysis methods used, the cost-effectiveness analysis using economic modelling estimated that capecitabine was a dominating strategy and resulted in a cost-saving of approximately pound 3320 per patient in comparison with the Mayo Clinic 5-FU/LV regimen, while also providing an additional 0.98 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over a 50-year model time horizon. Oxaliplatin in combination with 5-FU/LV (FOLFOX4 regimen) is estimated to cost an additional pound 2970 per QALY gained when compared with the de Gramont 5-FU/LV regimen and demonstrated superior survival outcomes with marginal costs. The uncertainty analysis suggests that both interventions have a high probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of both pound 20,000 and pound 30,000. An indirect comparison of the FOLFOX4 and Mayo Clinic 5-FU/LV regimens suggests that the use of FOLFOX4 in place of the Mayo Clinic 5-FU/LV regimen would cost an additional pound 5777 per QALY gained. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is estimated to be approximately pound 13,000 per QALY gained from treatment with FOLFOX4 compared with capecitabine. However, if the Mayo Clinic and the de Gramont 5-FU/LV regimens are assumed to be equivalent in terms of effectiveness, the ICER of FOLFOX4 in comparison with capecitabine may be greater than pound 30,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests that both capecitabine and FOLFOX4 are clinically effective and cost-effective in comparison with 5-FU/LV regimens (Mayo Clinic and de Gramont schedules). Further research is suggested into the effectiveness, tolerability, patient acceptability and costs of different oxaliplatin/fluoropyrimidine schedules in the adjuvant setting; the effects of treatment duration on efficacy; adverse events; resource data collection strategies and reporting of summary statistics; subgroups benefiting most from adjuvant chemotherapy; and methods for estimating mean survival.

Cost-effectiveness of oxaliplatin and capecitabine in the adjuvant treatment of stage III colon cancer

For many years, the standard treatment for stage III colon cancer has been surgical resection followed by 5-fluorouracil in combination with folinic acid (5-FU/LV). Ongoing clinical trial evidence suggests that capecitabine and oxaliplatin (in combination with 5-FU/LV) may improve disease-free survival and overall survival when compared against 5-FU/LV alone in the adjuvant setting. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness profiles of these two regimens in comparison to standard chemotherapy, using evidence from two international randomised controlled trials. Survival modelling techniques were employed to extrapolate survival curves from the two trials in order to estimate the long-term benefits of alternative treatment options over the remaining lifetime of patients. The health economic analysis suggests that capecitabine is expected to produce greater health gains at a lower cost than 5-FU/LV. Oxaliplatin in combination with 5-FU/LV is estimated to cost pounds 2970 per additional QALY gained when compared to 5-FU/LV alone. Future research should attempt to elucidate uncertainties concerning the optimal roles of capecitabine and/or oxaliplatin in the adjuvant setting in order to achieve the maximum level of clinical benefit.

Methods for expected value of information analysis in complex health economic models: developments on the health economics of interferon-β and glatiramer acetate for multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

To develop methods for performing expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis in computationally expensive models and to report on the developments on the health economics of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate in the management of multiple sclerosis (MS) using this methodological framework.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases and Internet resources, reference lists of relevant articles.

REVIEW METHODS

A methodological framework was developed for undertaking EVPI analysis for complex models. The framework identifies conditions whereby EVPI may be calculated numerically, where the one-level algorithm sufficiently approximates the two-level algorithm, and whereby metamodelling techniques may accurately approximate the original simulation model. Metamodelling techniques, including linear regression, neural networks and Gaussian processes (GP), were systematically reviewed and critically appraised. Linear regression metamodelling, GP metamodelling and the one-level EVPI approximation were used to estimate partial EVPIs using the ScHARR MS cost-effectiveness model.

RESULTS

The review of metamodelling approaches suggested that in general the simpler techniques such as linear regression may be easier to implement, as they require little specialist expertise although may provide only limited predictive accuracy. More complex methods such as Gaussian process metamodelling and neural networks tend to use less-restrictive assumptions concerning the relationship between the model inputs and net benefits, and therefore may permit greater accuracy in estimating EVPIs. Assuming independent treatment efficacy, the 'per patient' EVPI for all uncertainty parameters within the ScHARR MS model is 8855 British pounds. This leads to a population EVPI of 86,208,936 British pounds, which represents the upper estimate for the overall EVPI over 10 years. Assuming all treatment efficacies are perfectly correlated, the overall per patient EVPI is 4271 British pounds. This leads to a population EVPI of 41,581,273 British pounds, which represents the lower estimate for the overall EVPI over 10 years. The partial EVPI analysis, undertaken using both the linear regression metamodel and Gaussian process metamodel clearly, suggests that further research is indicated on the long-term impact of these therapies on disease progression, the proportion of patients dropping off therapy and the relationship between the EDSS, quality of life and costs of care.

CONCLUSIONS

The applied methodology points towards using more sophisticated metamodelling approaches in order to obtain greater accuracy in EVPI estimation. Programming requirements, software availability and statistical accuracy should be considered when choosing between metamodelling techniques. Simpler, more accessible techniques are open to greater predictive error, whilst sophisticated methodologies may enhance accuracy within non-linear models, but are considerably more difficult to implement and may require specialist expertise. These techniques have been applied in only a limited number of cases hence their suitability for use in EVPI analysis has not yet been demonstrated. A number of areas requiring further research have been highlighted. Further clinical research is required concerning the relationship between the EDSS, costs of care and health outcomes, the rates at which patients drop off therapy and in particular the impact of disease-modifying therapies on the progression of MS. Further methodological research is indicated concerning the inclusion of epidemiological population parameters within the sensitivity analysis; the development of criteria for selecting a metamodelling approach; the application of metamodelling techniques within health economic models and in the specific application to EVI analyses; and the use of metamodelling for EVSI and ENBS analysis.