The impact of probabilistic tornado warnings on risk perceptions and responses

Many warnings issued to members of the public are deterministic in that they do not include event likelihood information. This is true of the current polygon-based tornado warning used by the American National Weather Service, although the likelihood of a tornado varies within the boundaries of the polygon. To test whether adding likelihood information benefits end users, two experimental studies and one in-person interview study were conducted. The experimental studies compared five probabilistic formats, two with color and three with numeric probabilities alone, to the deterministic polygon. In both experiments, probabilistic formats led to better understanding of tornado likelihood and higher trust than the polygon alone, although color-coding led to several misunderstandings. When the polygon boundary was drawn at 10% chance, those using probabilistic formats made fewer correct shelter decisions at low probabilities and more correct shelter decisions at high probabilities compared to those using the deterministic warning, although overall decision quality, operationalized as expected value, did not differ. However, when the polygon boundary was drawn around 30%, participants with probabilistic forecasts had higher expected value. The interview study revealed that, although tornado-experienced individuals would not shelter at 10% chance, they would take intermediate actions, such as information-seeking and sharing. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Reducing vaccine hesitancy by explaining vaccine science

Vaccine hesitancy in the COVID-19 pandemic remained a problem long after mRNA vaccines became available. This may be due in part to misunderstandings about the vaccines, arising from complexities of the science involved. Two experiments, conducted on unvaccinated Americans at two periods postvaccine rollout in 2021, demonstrated that providing explanations, expressed in everyday language, and correcting known misunderstandings, reduced vaccine hesitancy compared to a no-information control group. Four explanations addressing misunderstandings about mRNA vaccine safety and effectiveness were tested in Experiment 1 (n = 3,787). Some included expository text while others included refutational text, explicitly stating and refuting the misunderstanding. Vaccine effectiveness statistics were expressed either as text or an icon array. Although all four explanations reduced vaccine hesitancy, the refutational format of those addressing vaccine safety (explaining the mRNA mechanism and mild side effects) was the most effective. These two explanations were retested individually and jointly in Experiment 2 (n = 1,476) later in the summer of 2021. Again, vaccine hesitancy was significantly reduced by all explanations despite differences in political ideology, trust, and prior attitudes. These results suggest that nontechnical explanations of critical issues in vaccine science can reduce vaccine hesitancy, especially when accompanied by refutational text. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk perception, decision-making, and risk communication in the time of COVID-19

After first being declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization [WHO], (2020) in March 2020, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly and in the process altered our very way of life. At the same time, it became increasingly clear that a wide range of new behavioral science research was necessary to understand fully how people comprehend and respond to such an unprecedented and long lasting health threat as COVID-19. One of the primary aims for this Special Issue was to gather and publish that research. The studies contained in this Special Issue, conducted between April 2020 and March 2021, were selected to represent experimental research that is relevant to this unique situation and that also inform and extend existing theory. These studies investigate three broad topics: Risk perception, decision-making under risk, and risk communication in the context of COVID-19. Collectively, they advance our knowledge of risk calibration, health communication interventions, and decisions about behaviors that address risk in the context of a global health threat. Perhaps most importantly they also make a practical contribution to how we approach these issues going forward. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

COVID-19: Risk perception, risk communication, and behavioral intentions

Critical to limiting the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and future pandemics is compliance with behavioral recommendations such as mask wearing and social distancing. Compliance may depend upon understanding the seriousness of the health consequences and the likelihood they will occur. However, the statistics that speak to these issues in an ongoing pandemic are complex and may be misunderstood. An online experiment with a U.S. sample tested the impact on perceived likelihood, trust, concern, behavioral intentions, and agreement with government response of numeric (mortality/infection percentage by age group) and gist expressions (which age group was smaller [mortality] or roughly equivalent [infected]). While the differences in risk perception and willingness to engage in activities between younger and older participants were small, "gist infection and mortality" increased willingness to wear a mask among younger participants. Government restrictions (e.g., social distancing) impacted willingness to engage is risk-reduction and risk-seeking activities. The biggest differences were due to political ideology. Although conservatives perceived similar levels of risk as did liberals, they were much less willing to engage in protective behaviors and support government policies. However, conservatives were affected by some risk communication formats and restrictions suggesting that future work should be aimed at this issue. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Explaining how long CO₂ stays in the atmosphere: Does it change attitudes toward climate change?

Despite overwhelming scientific consensus about climate change, the majority of Americans are not very worried about it. This may be due in part to insufficient understanding of the urgency and seriousness, which may be related among some, to distrust of the scientific community. We test these hypotheses in an experimental study using a broadly nationally representative sample. An explanation of the delay between the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and cessation of global warming was compared to two control groups, one with basic climate change information and another with no information. Participants also received climate predictions that either included or excluded uncertainty estimates for a 3 × 2 complete factorial design. Results suggest that the delay explanation increased participants understanding of this issue and reduced their agreement with a wait-and-see strategy, especially among conservatives. Moreover, uncertainty estimates increased trust in climate predictions and ratings of climate scientists' expertise and understanding. Uncertainty estimates also increased concern about climate change and the perception of scientific consensus. Although in some cases small, these positive effects were seen across political ideology groups. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Visualizing Uncertainty for Non-Expert End Users: The Challenge of the Deterministic Construal Error

There is a growing body of evidence that numerical uncertainty expressions can be used by non-experts to improve decision quality. Moreover, there is some evidence that similar advantages extend to graphic expressions of uncertainty. However, visualizing uncertainty introduces challenges as well. Here, we discuss key misunderstandings that may arise from uncertainty visualizations, in particular the evidence that users sometimes fail to realize that the graphic depicts uncertainty. Instead they have a tendency to interpret the image as representing some deterministic quantity. We refer to this as the deterministic construal error. Although there is now growing evidence for the deterministic construal error, few studies are designed to detect it directly because they inform participants upfront that the visualization expresses uncertainty. In a natural setting such cues would be absent, perhaps making the deterministic assumption more likely. Here we discuss the psychological roots of this key but underappreciated misunderstanding as well as possible solutions. This is a critical question because it is now clear that members of the public understand that predictions involve uncertainty and have greater trust when uncertainty is included. Moreover, they can understand and use uncertainty predictions to tailor decisions to their own risk tolerance, as long as they are carefully expressed, taking into account the cognitive processes involved.

Effects of dietary calcium fructoborate supplementation on joint comfort and flexibility and serum inflammatory markers in dogs with osteoarthritis

Our objective was to evaluate the short-term effects of calcium fructoborate (CFB) on gait, joint range of motion, serum inflammatory markers, and owner perception of pain in client-owned dogs. We used 59 osteoarthritic dogs with impairment, with dogs being randomly assigned to 4 treatments: placebo (60 mg fructose; = 15), low dose (69 mg CFB; = 14), high dose (127 mg CFB; = 14), or combination (69 mg CFB, 500 mg glucosamine hydrochloride and 200 mg chondroitin sulfate; = 16). Dogs up to 22.9 kg received 1 capsule/d, while dogs weighing 23 to 50 kg received 2 capsules/d. A physical examination, radiographs, goniometry measurements, gait analysis, blood sample collection, and a canine brief pain inventory questionnaire were performed on d 0 and 28. Change from baseline values were statistically analyzed among groups. After 28 d, dogs fed the low and high doses had an improved ( < 0.05) ability to rise from a lying position compared to placebo. Dogs fed the high dose also had a greater ( = 0.05) increase in soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products concentration than dogs fed the placebo. Sub-analysis of only large dogs (> 23 kg) showed that dogs fed the low dose had decreased ( < 0.05) pain severity score and pain at its worst compared to dogs fed the placebo. Large dogs fed the low dose also were shown to improve ( < 0.05) in their ability to rise from a lying position compared to dogs fed the placebo. Overall, CFB supplementation was well-tolerated and may aid in mitigating joint discomfort in dogs.

Clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and histopathologic findings in 6 dogs with surgically resected extraparenchymal spinal cord hematomas

BACKGROUND

Extraparenchymal spinal cord hematoma has been described in veterinary medicine in association with neoplasia, intervertebral disk disease, and snake envenomation. There are rare reports of spontaneous extraparenchymal spinal cord hematoma formation with no known cause in human medicine. Multiple cases of spontaneous extraparenchymal spinal cord hematoma have not been described previously in veterinary medicine.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the signalment, clinical findings, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features, and surgical outcomes in histopathologically confirmed extraparenchymal spinal cord hematomas in dogs with no identified underlying etiology.

ANIMALS

Six dogs had MRI of the spinal cord, decompressive spinal surgery, and histopathologic confirmation of extraparenchymal spinal cord hematoma not associated with an underlying cause.

METHODS

Multi-institutional retrospective study.

RESULTS

Six patients had spontaneous extraparenchymal spinal cord hematoma formation. MRI showed normal signal within the spinal cord parenchyma in all patients. All hematomas had T2-weighted hyperintensity and the majority (5/6) had no contrast enhancement. All dogs underwent surgical decompression and most patients (5/6) returned to normal or near normal neurologic function postoperatively. Follow-up of the patients (ranging between 921 and 1,446 days) showed no progression of neurologic clinical signs or any conditions associated with increased bleeding tendency.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE

Before surgery and histopathology confirming extraparenchymal hematoma, the primary differential in most cases was neoplasia, based on the MRI findings. This retrospective study reminds clinicians of the importance of the combination of advanced imaging combined with histopathologic diagnosis. The prognosis for spontaneous spinal cord extraparenchymal hematoma with surgical decompression appears to be favorable in most cases.

The cry wolf effect and weather-related decision making

Despite improvements in forecasting extreme weather events, noncompliance with weather warnings among the public remains a problem. Although there are likely many reasons for noncompliance with weather warnings, one important factor might be people's past experiences with false alarms. The research presented here explores the role of false alarms in weather-related decision making. Over a series of trials, participants used an overnight low temperature forecast and advice from a decision aid to decide whether to apply salt treatment to a town's roads to prevent icy conditions or take the risk of withholding treatment, which resulted in a large penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. The decision aid gave treatment recommendations, some of which were false alarms, i.e., treatment was recommended but observed temperatures were above freezing. The rate at which the advice resulted in false alarms was manipulated between groups. Results suggest that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. However, adding a probabilistic uncertainty estimate in the forecasts improved both compliance and decision quality. These findings carry implications about how weather warnings should be communicated to the public.

Decisions With Uncertainty: The Glass Half Full

Each of us makes important decisions involving uncertainty in domains in which we are not experts, such as retirement planning, medical treatment, and precautions against severe weather. Often, reliable information about uncertainty is available to us, although how effectively we incorporate it into the decision process remains in question. Previous research suggests that people are error-prone when reasoning with probability. However, recent research in weather-related decision making is more encouraging. Unlike earlier work that compares people’s decisions with a rational standard, this research compares decisions made by people with and without uncertainty information. The results suggest that including specific numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts increases trust and gives people a better idea of what to expect in terms of both the range of possible outcomes and the amount of uncertainty in the particular situation, all of which benefit precautionary decisions. However, the advantage for uncertainty estimates depends critically on how they are expressed. It is crucial that the expression is compatible with both the decision task and cognitive processes of the user.

Memory for memory

Participants read short passages and 1 day later they answered questions via telephone about the passages (text facts) and about the experimental session (event facts). They were telephoned again 6 weeks later and answered the same questions about text and event facts. They also answered new questions about whether they remembered the answers they had given in the initial telephone interview (recall for prior memory performance). Although participants accurately remembered the majority of past memory successes, they were poor at remembering past memory failures. After being provided with the correct answer and tested again, the participants' performance improved somewhat, especially for memory failures. This suggests that some errors in recalling past forgetting might have been due to correctly remembering the answer previously given, but failing to realize that it had been wrong. These findings have implications for a variety of situations in which people are queried about past memory performance.

Repression: a mistaken impression?

How do clinical observations of repression square with experimental evidence suggesting that emotionally arousing memories are especially enduring? This discrepancy can be understood by examining three kinds of memory distortions that give the impression in a clinical context, of repression. Potentially traumatic events such as childhood sexual abuse (CSA) may be subject to ordinary forgetting. Recent research suggests people who fail to understand the sexual nature of CSA report that they remember it less well. In other words, the event occurred and it was forgotten, but not "repressed." In addition, people may be wrong about experiencing a period of forgetting, i.e. the event occurred but was never forgotten. Finally, people may believe that a particular traumatic event occurred and was repressed when, in fact, it did not happen in the first place. Under certain circumstances, some combination of these distortions could lead to situations that are mistakenly interpreted as repression.

The importance of hope

Hope is an important aspect of life. Although nursing can play a part in encouraging hope, we seem to be in danger of neglecting this aspect of care. This article examines the meaning of hope, and suggests ways in which the nurse may inspire hope in those who need it.

Remembering and forgetting childhood sexual abuse

Out of a large number of university students who responded to a questionnaire about childhood sexual abuse (CSA), approximately a quarter reported that they had an experience in childhood that qualified. The majority of students who reported a CSA experience refused, elsewhere in the questionnaire, to classify themselves as 'sexually abused'. Moreover, those who claimed lack of understanding of the event at the time it occurred also reported that they thought about the event less often in the intervening years and that they conceivably would have not remembered the event even if asked directly about it. Lack of understanding at the time of encoding leads to less reported memory. These observations are discussed in terms of possible mechanisms for how genuine sexual abuse experiences might be temporarily forgotten--even for extended periods--and subsequently remembered.