The impact of probabilistic tornado warnings on risk perceptions and responses

Many warnings issued to members of the public are deterministic in that they do not include event likelihood information. This is true of the current polygon-based tornado warning used by the American National Weather Service, although the likelihood of a tornado varies within the boundaries of the polygon. To test whether adding likelihood information benefits end users, two experimental studies and one in-person interview study were conducted. The experimental studies compared five probabilistic formats, two with color and three with numeric probabilities alone, to the deterministic polygon. In both experiments, probabilistic formats led to better understanding of tornado likelihood and higher trust than the polygon alone, although color-coding led to several misunderstandings. When the polygon boundary was drawn at 10% chance, those using probabilistic formats made fewer correct shelter decisions at low probabilities and more correct shelter decisions at high probabilities compared to those using the deterministic warning, although overall decision quality, operationalized as expected value, did not differ. However, when the polygon boundary was drawn around 30%, participants with probabilistic forecasts had higher expected value. The interview study revealed that, although tornado-experienced individuals would not shelter at 10% chance, they would take intermediate actions, such as information-seeking and sharing. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Eyeing the storm: How residents of coastal Florida see hurricane forecasts and warnings

This paper examines the societal dimensions of warning decisions during extreme weather events in one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the U.S., Miami-Dade County, Florida. With the aim of informing improvements in the hurricane forecast and warning system, and better understanding warning decisions in extreme weather events, we explore how members of the public obtain and use hurricane forecasts and warnings in decision making. Results from in depth mental models interviews with members of the public (N=28) and survey data from three counties in Florida (N=460) show that a large majority of respondents have some hurricane experience, which influences their thinking about storm impacts, individual actions to mitigate the hazard, and vulnerability to the hazard. Comparison with results from previous research with warning system professionals (National Weather Service forecasters, media broadcasters, and public officials) indicates several gaps between professionals and laypeople including different perceptions of hurricane risks overall and related to flooding from storm surge. The findings suggest several areas for improvements in the hurricane forecast and warning system.

Direct electron microscopy study on the morphological diversity of bacteriophage populations in lake plusssee

Direct electron microscopy of bacteriophages adsorbed to a carbon film without prior enrichment by specific host strains or concentration by physical or chemical methods was used to study the morphological diversity of natural bacteriophage assemblages in a North German lake. All samples contained a mixture of morphologically different tailed viruses, which were regarded as bacteriophages. Most of them had isometric heads and long noncontractile tails, belonging to morphotype B1 (Siphoviridae). In addition, members of morphotypes A1 (Myoviridae), B2 (Siphoviridae with elongated heads), and C1 (Podoviridae) were present in lower numbers. Only one cubic virus was detected, while no filamentous or pleomorphic phages were found. Up to 11 different phages per sample, and a total of 39 phages when all samples were considered together, could be distinguished by morphological criteria. The total number of phages was estimated to be on the order of 10/ml.

[Drinking water supply with reference to geogenic arsenic contamination]

Geogenic Arsenic in Drinking Water. Drinking water production of surface spring water in southern Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen, Germany) was reduced because of microbiological contaminations and unreliably variable water reserves. Surface spring water in general has a low arsenic content. As a consequence ground water has been increasingly used for drinking water. Thus, high geogenic concentrations of arsenic in the central "Buntsandstein" in southern Lower Saxony caused high arsenic contents in the groundwater. Under the regulation of the German Drinking Water Ordinance (1986) the limit for total arsenic (40 micrograms/l) was exceeded in 2% of 150 fountains, wells and sources in southern Lower Saxony. Because of the well-known cancerogenic potential of arsenic the limit for total arsenic in drinking water was reduced from 40 micrograms/l to 10 micrograms/l suspending the new standard value until January 1996. This regulation based on new calculations revealing a skin cancer risk of roughly 6:10,000 and a mortality risk of roughly 1:10(6) in respect of lifetime in case of arsenic concentrations of 10 micrograms As/l drinking water. After that limit change 40% of 150 wells and sources in southern Lower Saxony exceeded the arsenic limit of 10 micrograms/l drinking water. As a matter of fact, it became necessary for a large number of water supply works to eliminate arsenic from the drinking water by technical means or to dilute drinking water with high concentrations of arsenic.

[Establishment of a method for determining the association between Legionella sp. and Amoeba sp. using polymerase chain reaction]

With two pairs of primers for the amplification of the MIP- (macrophage infectivity potentiator) and the 5S rDNA-fragment, it was possible to establish a DNA extraction and a PCR method for the detection of Legionella sp. in water-samples and, after cultivation, in Amoeba sp. Therefore, water-samples from a warm water-system in a hospital were taken. In all samples, legionellae were detected by the PCR method and identified by cultivation and a direct immunofluorescence-method as L. pneumophila (serogroup 1). Legionellae and amoebae of the same water sample were cocultured. Legionellae were also adherent at the outer-membrane. To separate the amoebae from the legionellae, the amoebae were sedimented selectively by centrifugation at 200 x g. This washing procedure had to be repeated seven times in order to eliminate the extraamoebale legionellae for sure. After DNA-extraction of water samples and heat treatment of the intraamoebale legionellae respectively, the amplification was performed with the MIP- and 5S rDNA-primers. In 14 of 16 cocultivations growth of legionellae was found. This result and the detection of legionellae and amoebae in the same water samples suggest that an infection of amoebae may also take place in the water system of the hospital. This is important for the disinfection as a procedure to eliminate legionellae, since intraamoebale bacteria are more resistant to environmental manipulation. Because in two of the cocultivations no growth of legionellae in amoebae was found, it can be assumed that only specific subtypes of legionellae can infect amoebae species.