Investigating the seasonal variation of heart failure hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality risks in Japan using a nationwide database

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported seasonal variations in heart failure (HF) hospitalizations and mortality that are observed to peak in the winter, although many of these studies are from Europe or the USA. However, some studies on non-US patients have reported contrasting results. We aimed to determine whether seasonal variation exists in hospitalizations due to HF, investigate the risk of death during hospitalization, and examine possible contributors to such variability in Japan.

METHODS

This study was an exploratory analysis of our previous report, which included 269,636 hospitalizations due to HF between 2008 and 2018. The monthly hospitalization rate for HF was evaluated using a linear regression model with April as the reference month. The risk factors for in-hospital and monthly mortality were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The hospitalizations due to HF were significantly higher in the winter than in the summer. The peak admission rate occurred in January, and the lowest rate occurred in July. Based on April, changes in the number of hospitalizations per month were estimated using linear multiple regression analysis (adjusted R2 = 0.911). The risk of death during hospitalization was lowest in April and gradually increased from August to October (hazard ratio, 1.18-1.21).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant seasonal variation in HF hospitalizations in Japan. Peak admission rates occurred in January. However, the risk of death during hospitalization was higher in August, September, and October than that in January.

Developing Multidisciplinary Management of Heart Failure in the Super-Aging Society of Japan

The Japanese population is rapidly aging because of its long life expectancy and low birth rate; additionally, the number of patients with heart failure (HF) is increasing to the extent that HF is now considered a pandemic. According to a recent HF registry study, Japanese patients with HF have both medical and care-related problems. Although hospitalization is used to provide medical services, and institutionalization is used to provide care for frail older adults, it can be difficult to distinguish between them. In this context, multidisciplinary management of HF has become increasingly important in preventing hospital readmissions and maintaining a patient's quality of life. Academia has promoted an increase in the number of certified HF nurses and educators. Researchers have issued numerous guidelines or statements on topics such as cardiac rehabilitation, nutrition, and palliative care, in addition to the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic HF. Moreover, the Japanese government has created incentives through various medical and long-term care systems adjustments to increase collaboration between these two fields. This review summarizes current epidemiological registries that focus not only on medical but also care-related problems and the 10 years of multidisciplinary management experience in Japanese medical and long-term care systems.

A comparison between hospital follow-up and collaborative follow-up in patients with acute heart failure

AIMS

There are no previous studies focusing on collaborative follow-ups between hospitals and clinics for patients discharged after acute heart failure (AHF) in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the status of collaboration between hospitals and clinics for patients with AHF in Japan and to compare patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using a large Japanese observational database.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Of 4056 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 2862 patients discharged to go home, who were divided into 1674 patients (58.5%) followed up at hospitals with index hospitalization (hospital follow-up group) and 1188 (41.5%) followed up in a collaborative fashion with clinics or other general hospitals (collaborative follow-up group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 1 year after discharge. Previous hospitalization for HF and length of hospital stay longer than 15 days were associated with hospital follow-up. Conversely, ≥80 years of age, hypertension, and cognitive dysfunction were associated with collaborative follow-up. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome, all cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between the hospital and collaborative follow-up groups (31.6% vs. 29.6%, P = 0.51, 13.1% vs, 13.9%, P = 0.35, 8.4% vs. 8.2%, P = 0.96). Even after adjusting for confounders, the difference in risk for patients in the hospital follow-up group relative to those in the collaborative follow-up group remained insignificant for the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27, P = 0.14, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.91-1.33, P = 0.33, HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.05, P = 0.33). The cumulative 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (25.5% vs. 21.3%, P = 0.02). The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39, P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients hospitalized for AHF, 41.5% received collaborative follow-up after discharge. The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up, although risk of the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between groups.

Safety of Intravenous Autologous Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Cell Transplantation in 5 Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction

Background: Although intracardiac injection or intracoronary delivery of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) has been reported, there have been few studies on the intravenous injection of MSCs, particularly in Japan.

Methods and Results: Five patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% received 1.0×10⁸ MSCs intravenously. The procedure did not induce significant changes in vital signs. One patient had an elevated body temperature after 1 day, but recovered spontaneously. Laboratory tests remained normal for 1 month after cell delivery. Computed tomography was performed after 1–2 years, and there was no evidence of malignancy.

Conclusions: In this pilot study of patients with reduced LVEF, intravenous MSC delivery had no adverse effects.

Temporal trends of a vasopressin V2 receptor antagonist in heart failure using a nationwide database in Japan

AIMS

Real-world data on the use of tolvaptan, an oral selective vasopressin 2 receptor antagonist, for patients with heart failure (HF) are not available in Western countries because tolvaptan is not indicated in the Western countries for volume overload in HF. This study aimed to investigate the current status and recent trends of tolvaptan use for HF in Japan by analysing a nationwide Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively identified 257 812 patients hospitalized because of HF between 1 April 2008 and 30 November 2018. The diagnosis of HF at admission was based on the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, and in-hospital treatment. We investigated patient characteristics, in-hospital diuretic treatment, and tolvaptan treatment after discharge. The proportion of patients who were prescribed with tolvaptan for HF increased from 3.2% in 2011 to 39% in 2018. Since 2015, tolvaptan was prescribed within 2 days of hospitalization in >50% of HF cases. At discharge of a patient who was prescribed with tolvaptan, the rate of oral loop diuretic prescription at a dose ≥80 mg decreased, while the rate of diuretic prescription at a dose <40 mg increased. After discharge, the rate of tolvaptan prescription gradually increased from 34.0% in 2011 to 69.7% in 2018; however, tolvaptan prescriptions lasting >14 days decreased after 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale survey indicated an increased rate of tolvaptan prescription and an early shift to tolvaptan treatment in patients with HF in Japan. The prognostic effects of this change in HF treatment remain unclear.

P1650Clinical significance of uNGAL, uKIM-1, and uL-FABP in patients with acute pulmonary edema

Introduction

Novel urinary biomarkers such as urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (u-NGAL),urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (u-KIM-1), and urinary liver-type fatty acid-binding protein (uL-FABP) are proposed to be reliable markers for acute heart failure (AHF). Acute pulmonary edema (APE) is one of the vascular phenotypes of AHF, such as `vascular failure”, often with high blood pressure at admission. We aimed to investigate the differences in the clinical impact and prognostic utility of urinary biomarkers in AHF patients with and without APE.

Methods and results

This prospective observational study included 203 AHF patients (mean age: 77 years, 52% male). uL-FABP, u-NGAL, and u-KIM-1 were measured at admission and before discharge, with correction for urinary creatinine. APE was defined as acute-onset dyspnea and radiographic alveolar edema requiring non-invasive positive pressure ventilation. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death and AHF rehospitalization for 1 year. The median uL-FABP levels at admission were higher in APE (n=42) than in non-APE patients (n=161; 10.8 [4.5–23.7] vs. 20.7 [5.9–63.5] μg/gCr, p=0.017), whereas u-KIM-1, u-NGAL, and serum creatinine did not significantly differ between AHF patients with and without APE. The primary outcome did not differ between patients with and without APE. However, among patients with APE, Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that higher uL-FABP (≥median: 20.7 μg/gCr) was associated with adverse events (log-rank: p=0.019). After adjusting for age, sex, serum creatinine, and brain natriuretic peptide, multivariable Cox hazard analysis showed that higher uL-FABP is an independent predictor of adverse events (HR: 4.0 [1.2–18.2], p=0.023).

Conclusion

Unlike u-NGAL and u-KIM-1, uL-FABP was higher in APE patients than in non-APE patients. Further, among patients with APE, higher uL-FABP was predictive for poor prognosis.

Acknowledgement/Funding

None

External validation of pooled cohort equations using systolic blood pressure intervention trial data

Objective

The risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is estimated using the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs). However, the accuracy of this tool remains controversial, particularly among patients who are recommended statin therapy according to the ACC/AHA guidelines. We performed external validation of PCEs among patients eligible for statin therapy using data from the systolic blood pressure intervention trial (SPRINT).

Results

Our study included 4057 patients from among the 9361 patients in SPRINT. The mean patient age was 64.5 years, and the median predicted 10-year risks of ASCVD were 17.2% and 12.3% for men and women, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 3.3 years, 133 primary events (including 23 cardiovascular deaths) were noted, whereas 304 events were predicted by the PCEs. The PCEs demonstrated poor calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p < 0.001) and overestimated the probability consistently. Additionally, they showed moderate discrimination [area under the curve: 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.60–0.69)]. This study demonstrates that PCEs might overestimate the risk of ASCVD in patients who are recommended statin therapy.

Dynamic changes of serum microRNA-122-5p through therapeutic courses indicates amelioration of acute liver injury accompanied by acute cardiac decompensation

AIMS

Recent studies have shown that serum microRNA (miR) abundance is informative for the diagnosis or prognosis of heart failure. However, the dynamics and kinetics of miRs in acute heart failure are largely unknown. Serial measurement and analysis of serum miRs changes in individuals along their therapeutic course could reduce inter-individual variation and should detect potentially important serum miRs related to disease mechanisms. Based on this concept, we profiled serum miR signatures of blood samples that were obtained sequentially on the day of admission and on hospital Day 7.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective, observational study included 42 consecutive acute heart failure patients (74 ± 1 years old, 24 male). From admission to Day 7, most of the patients showed clinical improvement. In such a cohort, we detected several fluctuations of serum miRs by two distinct screening methods (quantitative PCR and high-throughput sequencing). One of these fluctuating serum miRs, miR-122-5p, decreased significantly from Day 1 to Day 7 [median arbitrary unit (1st:3rd quantile value); 4.62 [2.39:12.3] to 3.07 [1.67:5.39], P = 0.007]. This fluctuation was significantly correlated with changes in serum liver function markers (estimated coefficient and 95% confidence interval; vs change in aspartate aminotransferase 1.69, 0.890-2.484, P < 0.001 and r = 0.560, vs change in alanine aminotransferase 1.09, 0.406-1.771, P = 0.007 and r = 0.428).

CONCLUSIONS

The serum miR signature of patients with acute heart failure might indicate the severity of the disease or patients' response to therapeutic intervention. Notably, serum miR-122-5p levels reflect liver damage in this condition.

Prognostic Value of Rising Serum Albumin During Hospitalization in Patients With Acute Heart Failure

Hypoalbuminemia is an important predictor of a poor long-term prognosis in acute heart failure (AHF). However, changes in serum albumin levels in AHF have not been described to date. Therefore, we investigated the changes in serum albumin levels in patients hospitalized for AHF. This observational study included 115 consecutive patients admitted with AHF. Serum albumin was measured on days 1, 2, 4, and 7 of their hospitalization, and the changes in its levels were assessed. Cox multivariate analysis was used to compare the long-term mortality and readmission rate between 2 groups defined according to whether their serum albumin changes showed a rising pattern (serum albumin level increased from day 2 to day 7) or not. The mean serum albumin levels were 3.51 mg/dl on day 1, 3.21 mg/dl on day 2, 3.23 mg/dl on day 4, and 3.35 mg/dl on day 7 (p <0.001 by multivariate analysis of variance). The rising pattern group including 66 patients (60.6%) was independently associated with a lower mortality and readmission rate (hazard ratios 0.450 and 0.522; p = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively). Furthermore, based on multiple linear regression analysis, the changes in hemoglobin and C-reactive protein levels during days 1 to 7 were independently correlated with the changes in serum albumin levels over the same period. In conclusion, a rising pattern of serum albumin change in a patient with AHF was correlated with a good long-term prognosis. Furthermore, the change in serum albumin levels was also associated with changes in cachectic factors.