[Carcinoma in situ arising in adenomyomatous hyperplasia of the ampulla of Vater: the first case report]

A man in his 70s was admitted to our hospital due to jaundice and upper abdominal pain. Laboratory findings indicated elevated serum hepatobiliary enzyme and amylase levels. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography revealed smooth wall thickening of the terminal bile duct (tBD) with a faintly enhanced inner line. ERCP revealed stenosis from the tBD to the ampulla of Vater (AV) with upstream dilatation. Intraductal ultrasound (IDUS) circumferentially revealed a thickened wall preserving a three-layered structure throughout the same region. Furthermore, a thick innermost hyperechoic layer was identified in the bile duct portion of the AV (Ab). Findings suggestive of adenocarcinoma were obtained from the tissue samples from the biliary stricture using biopsy forceps. Thus, pancreatoduodenectomy was performed. A pathological examination revealed a thickened AV wall spreading over the tBD with hyperplasia of the glands and smooth muscle fibers. In addition, low-grade biliary intraepithelial neoplasia (BilIN) was scattered throughout the lesion, and high-grade BilIN was partly observed in the peribiliary glands of the Ab. Based on these results, a diagnosis of carcinoma in situ arising in adenomyomatous hyperplasia (ADMH) of the AV was made. To date, there are no reports on ADMH-associated carcinoma of the BD or AV. We here report this original case with the IDUS findings, which are presumed to reflect the histologic features of ADMH showing ductal proliferation surrounded by smooth muscle fibers. Also, we discuss the process through which carcinoma arises from ADMH in AV.

Indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of non-COVID-19 infectious diseases: a region-wide, patient-based database study in Japan

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced people to change many behaviours, including physical distancing, hygiene measures and lifestyles. This study aimed to evaluate the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of non-COVID-19 infections and medical care costs/visits using health insurance claims.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an observational study using patient-based administrative claims covering approximately 800,000 insured persons and their dependents in the Mie Prefecture in Japan.

METHODS

This study identified non-COVID-19 infectious disease incidences, number of outpatient visits and healthcare costs between 2017 and 2021. Each year was divided into quarters. The adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) during the pandemic (January 2020 to September 2021) and during the prepandemic period (January 2017 to December 2019) were determined using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The adjusted influenza IRRs from April 2020 were close to zero. The incidence of upper respiratory tract infections and bacterial pneumonia was significantly reduced (IRRs range: 0.39-0.73 and 0.43-0.84, respectively). Gastrointestinal and urinary tract infection incidences decreased by approximately 30% and 10%, respectively. In contrast, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including syphilis, gonococcal infection and Chlamydia trachomatis infection, did not decrease during the pandemic but increased significantly between April and June 2021 (adjusted IRR, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-1.60). The adjusted IRRs for outpatient visits and healthcare costs were 0.86-0.93 and 0.91-0.97, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to other infections, STIs did not decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic. The IRR of STIs during the pandemic period is an area of public health concern. Appropriate screening and medical consultations are strongly recommended.

Association between the Mediterranean Diet Score and Healthy Life Expectancy: A Global Comparative Study

OBJECTIVES

Extending healthy life expectancy (HALE), defined as the average number of years that a person can expect to live in "full health" by taking into account years lived in less than full health due to disease and/or injury, is a common topic worldwide. This study aims to clarify the relationships between the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) and life expectancy (LE) and HALE globally using publicly available international data.

SETTING

Analyses were conducted on 130 countries with populations of 1 million or more for which all data were available. Individual countries were scored from 0 to 9 to indicate adherence to the Mediterranean diet according to the MDS scoring method. The supply of vegetables, legumes, fruits and nuts, cereals, fish, and olive oil per 1,000 kcal per country was calculated based on the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database, with a score of 1 for above the median and 0 for below. The same method was used to calculate scores of presumed detrimental components (meat and dairy), with consumption below the median given a value of 1, and consumption above the median given a value of 0. For ethanol, a score of 1 was given for 10g to 50 g of consumption. We investigated the cross-sectional associations between the MDS and LE and HALE at birth in 2009, and the longitudinal associations between the MDS in 2009 and LE and HALE between 2009 and 2019, controlling for covariates at baseline using linear mixed models.

RESULTS

In the cross-sectional analysis, the MDS was significantly positively associated with LE (β=0.906 [95% confidence interval, 0.065-1.747], p=0.037) and HALE (β=0.875 [0.207-1.544], p=0.011) after controlling for all covariates. The longitudinal analysis also revealed significantly positive associations between the MDS and LE (0.621 [0.063-1.178], p=0.030) and HALE (0.694 [0.227-1.161], p=0.004) after controlling for all covariates.

CONCLUSION

The present study, based on an analysis using 10 years of international data, showed that countries with a higher MDS showed a positive association with HALE.

Roles of cytokines and T cells in the pathogenesis of myasthenia gravis

Myasthenia gravis (MG) is characterized by muscle weakness and fatigue caused by the presence of autoantibodies against the acetylcholine receptor (AChR) or the muscle-specific tyrosine kinase (MuSK). Activated T, B and plasma cells, as well as cytokines, play important roles in the production of pathogenic autoantibodies and the induction of inflammation at the neuromuscular junction in MG. Many studies have focused on the role of cytokines and lymphocytes in anti-AChR antibody-positive MG. Chronic inflammation mediated by T helper type 17 (Th17) cells, the promotion of autoantibody production from B cells and plasma cells by follicular Th (Tfh) cells and the activation of the immune response by dysfunction of regulatory T (T_reg ) cells may contribute to the exacerbation of the MG pathogenesis. In fact, an increased number of Th17 cells and Tfh cells and dysfunction of T_reg cells have been reported in patients with anti-AChR antibody-positive MG; moreover, the number of these cells was correlated with clinical parameters in patients with MG. Regarding cytokines, interleukin (IL)-17; a Th17-related cytokine, IL-21 (a Tfh-related cytokine), the B-cell-activating factor (BAFF; a B cell-related cytokine) and a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL; a B cell-related cytokine) have been reported to be up-regulated and associated with clinical parameters of MG. This review focuses on the current understanding of the involvement of cytokines and lymphocytes in the immunological pathogenesis of MG, which may lead to the development of novel therapies for this disease in the near future.

A bolus of saline injection leads to increase in coronary flow based on the viscosity reduction effect: the mechanism of saline induced Pd/Pa ratio

Background

In conjunction with fractional flow reserve (FFR), our previous study has shown the accuracy and utility of saline induced Pd/Pa ratio (SPR) for the assessment of myocardial ischemia. However, the potential mechanism how saline injection leads to increase in coronary flow remains speculative.

Purpose

This study aimed to clarify the underlying mechanism of SPR by using swine models.

Methods

The study was conducted in four swine models, and bolus of 25°C saline, 40°C saline, and 25°C dextran was injected at rates of 40mL/5sec through a catheter inserted into the superior mesenteric artery. Its peripheral arterioles were observed and recorded by a digital microscope, and transit time of each fluid and a luminal diameter of arterioles before and after injection were measured.

Results

The result from arterioles diameters of pre- and post-injection (0.049±0.016mm vs. 0.050±0.016mm; P=0.636) indicated that luminal diameters remained unchanged regardless of fluid administration. The transit time of 25°C saline was significantly shorter than 25°C dextran (3.19±0.68sec vs. 6.15±1.19sec; P<0.0001). Although the result showed no significance, the transit time of 40°C saline with lower viscosity was shorten compared to 25°C saline (3.1±0.43sec vs. 3.65±0.46sec; P=0.088).

Conclusions

Compared to 25°C dextran (viscosity of 4.991mPa·s) having the same viscosity as 37°C whole blood, 25°C saline (viscosity of 1.012mPa·s) caused increasing to double the intravascular flow volume without dilating arterioles. The results strongly suggested that the potential mechanism of SPR was viscosity reduction effect. Combined with FFR which is based on vasodilation-mediated hyperemia, these findings may contribute to clarifying the pathophysiology and especially the microcirculation in coronary artery diseases.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

The developing mechanism of atherosclerotic lesion in coronary side branch on the ventricular free wall differs by the location of lesion

Background

The effective treating method of coronary side branch lesions such as ostial stenosis or thin arteries has not been established. On the other hand, tortuous side branch rarely has stenotic lesions.

Purpose

We focused on coronary side branches on the ventricular free wall, and examined coronary risk factors and bending and stretching motion of branch which can contribute to the development of atherosclerotic lesion.

Methods

In elective and first-time coronary angiograms, we included side branches on the ventricular free wall (>2mm in diameter) and excluded previously treated ones. Study A; we divided arteries into proximal, middle, and distal segment, and examined the presence of tortuosity and stenotic lesions exceeding 50% diameter stenosis (DS) for each segment. A score of 1 was assigned to tortuous segment, and 0 to non-tortuous one. Study B; we included stenotic lesion (>50% DS) in side branch ostium and excluded those extended across main coronary arteries. Relation between lesions and patients' characteristics was examined.

Results

Study A; in 1,828 side branches from 472 patients, middle and distal segments had significantly higher tortuosity score than proximal (0.68, 0.78 vs. 0.34; p<0.0001). On the contrary, proximal segments had more stenotic lesions except ostial stenosis (230 vs. 69, 5; p<0.0001). Study B; in 1,740 side branches from 465 patients, 122 ostial stenotic lesions were found (7.0%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed diabetes mellitus and age as independent contributors to development of ostial stenosis (Table).

Conclusions

Side branch stenosis developed less frequently in middle and distal segments, where stronger ventricular wall motion reinforces bending and stretching motion and tortuosity of arteries. This fact indicates that those characteristics may prevent developing atherosclerosis through increasing shear stress. On the other hand, diabetes mellitus strongly contributes to the development of ostial stenosis. Thus, the developing mechanism of atherosclerotic lesion in side branch on the ventricular free wall differs by the location of lesion.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Understanding the impact of gamma irradiation of epoxy titania nanocomposites on surface and bulk charge characteristics

Epoxy titania nanocomposites were prepared under optimum process conditions through shear mixing of titania nanoparticles in to epoxy resin, for its potential application as insulant in nuclear power plants and space applications. The complex intrinsic nature of properties, its characteristic variation due to ageing of nanocomposite insulating material upon its continuous exposure to gamma irradiation, and their charge trap and space charge characteristics are explored. Surface potential variation studies were carried out under DC voltage. In the present study, the charge trap performance was assessed under switching impulse voltage. It is observed that surface potential decay and shallow trap formation are high with gamma irradiated specimen. In addition, the potential decay is high under switching impulse voltage compared to DC voltage. Also, the trap depth formed is less under switching impulse voltage compared to DC voltage and it is high under negative DC voltage. The space charge analysis through Pulsed electro acoustic (PEA) studies has shown increase in accumulation of space charge and enhancement of electric field with increase in dosage of gamma-irradiation. Polarity reversal tests have revealed that the electric field enhancement is high before reversal of polarity, irrespective of level of gamma irradiation dosage. The direct correlation between characteristic variation in trap depth values with the gamma irradiated specimen and its contact angle was observed.

Cubic Rashba Effect in the Surface Spin Structure of Rare-Earth Ternary Materials

Spin-orbit interaction and structure inversion asymmetry in combination with magnetic ordering is a promising route to novel materials with highly mobile spin-polarized carriers at the surface. Spin-resolved measurements of the photoemission current from the Si-terminated surface of the antiferromagnet TbRh_{2}Si_{2} and their analysis within an ab initio one-step theory unveil an unusual triple winding of the electron spin along the fourfold-symmetric constant energy contours of the surface states. A two-band k·p model is presented that yields the triple winding as a cubic Rashba effect. The curious in-plane spin-momentum locking is remarkably robust and remains intact across a paramagnetic-antiferromagnetic transition in spite of spin-orbit interaction on Rh atoms being considerably weaker than the out-of-plane exchange field due to the Tb 4f moments.

Individual response of humans to ionising radiation: governing factors and importance for radiological protection

Tissue reactions and stochastic effects after exposure to ionising radiation are variable between individuals but the factors and mechanisms governing individual responses are not well understood. Individual responses can be measured at different levels of biological organization and using different endpoints following varying doses of radiation, including: cancers, non-cancer diseases and mortality in the whole organism; normal tissue reactions after exposures; and, cellular endpoints such as chromosomal damage and molecular alterations. There is no doubt that many factors influence the responses of people to radiation to different degrees. In addition to the obvious general factors of radiation quality, dose, dose rate and the tissue (sub)volume irradiated, recognized and potential determining factors include age, sex, life style (e.g., smoking, diet, possibly body mass index), environmental factors, genetics and epigenetics, stochastic distribution of cellular events, and systemic comorbidities such as diabetes or viral infections. Genetic factors are commonly thought to be a substantial contributor to individual response to radiation. Apart from a small number of rare monogenic diseases such as ataxia telangiectasia, the inheritance of an abnormally responsive phenotype among a population of healthy individuals does not follow a classical Mendelian inheritance pattern. Rather it is considered to be a multi-factorial, complex trait.

Surgical approaches for condylar fractures related to facial nerve injury: deep versus superficial dissection

The aim of this study was to investigate the probability of facial nerve injury (FNI) in the treatment of condylar neck and subcondylar fractures (CN/SCFs) with percutaneous approaches and to identify factors predicting FNI. The data of 80 patients with 87 CN/SCFs were evaluated retrospectively. The primary outcome was FNI occurrence. The predictor variables were age, sex, aetiology, alcohol consumption, fracture site and pattern (dislocation or not), concomitant fractures, time interval to surgery, surgeon experience, plate type, and the dual classification of percutaneous approaches. The approaches were classified based on whether subcutaneous dissection traversed the marginal mandibular branch (MMB) deeply (deep group: submandibular and retroparotid approaches) or superficially (superficial group: transparotid, transmasseteric anteroparotid (TMAP), and high cervical-TMAP approaches). Twenty-two patients (27.5%) suffered FNI, of whom two in the deep group had permanent paralysis of the MMB. In the multivariate logistic regression model, deeply traversing surgery approaches (odds ratio 12.4, P=0.025) and the presence of a dislocated fracture (odds ratio 6.66, P=0.012) were associated with an increased risk of FNI. These results suggest that percutaneous approaches in the superficial group should be recommended for the treatment of CN/SCFs to reduce the risk of FNI.

Frequency and risk factors of thoracic metastases and optimisation of the use of cross-sectional chest imaging in follow-up patients with cervical cancer

AIM

To optimise cross-sectional chest imaging usage by identifying frequency and risk factors associated with thoracic metastases in cervical cancer patients after initial definitive treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study, conducted during 2004-2015, examined 361 consecutive patients with histopathologically proven cervical carcinoma with at least 1 year of follow-up. Electronic medical records and all available imaging modes were used to record and assess patient and tumour characteristics and timing of thoracic metastases. Associations with these characteristics and thoracic metastases were assessed using univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modelling.

RESULTS

Of the 361 patients, 31 developed thoracic metastases. Multivariate regression results showed that adeno/adenosquamous carcinomas (hazard ratio [HR], 2.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 5.72), other histology (HR, 5.61; 95% CI, 1.81 to 17.42), high International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage (HR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.09 to 7.37), and presence of initial intra-abdominal lymph node metastases (HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.02 to 5.90) were associated significantly and independently with thoracic metastases. The second analysis among the subgroup of surgical treatment identified intermediate-high risk classification of recurrence (HR, 5.12; 95% CI, 1.14 to 22.94), high FIGO stage (HR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.05 to 7.13), and other histology (HR, 11.51; 95% CI, 3.66 to 36.19) as independent predictors of thoracic metastases. Two of the 361 and 2/313 patients with thoracic metastases who did not correspond to the conditions above were in the respective evaluation groups.

CONCLUSION

Assessment of negative prognostic factors for thoracic metastases might contribute to reduced need for chest cross-sectional chest computed tomography examinations.

Traditional Japanese Diet Score - Association with Obesity, Incidence of Ischemic Heart Disease, and Healthy Life Expectancy in a Global Comparative Study

OBJECTIVES

We created a Traditional Japanese Diet Score (TJDS), and to clarify the relationship between TJDS and obesity, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and healthy life expectancy (HALE).

DESIGN

Ecological study.

SETTING

Food (g/day/capita) and energy (kcal/day/capita) supply was determined using the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division database. The sum of characteristic traditional Japanese foods (beneficial food components in the Japanese diet: rice, fish, soybeans, vegetables, eggs, and seaweeds; food components rarely used in the Japanese diet: wheat, milk, and red meat) was divided as tertiles (beneficial food components: -1, 0, 1; rarely used food components: 1, 0, -1). Obesity rate was determined using the World Health Organization database. Incidence of IHD, HALE and smoking rate were determined using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 database. Gross domestic product per capita, percentage of population > 65 years old, and health expenditure were determined using the World Bank database. Education years were obtained from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics. Associations between TJDS and obesity, IHD and HALE were examined in 132 countries with a population of 1 million or greater using a general linear model controlled for co-variables.

RESULTS

TJDS was distributed from -6 to 7. TJDS was inversely correlated to obesity (β±SE; -0.70±0.19, p<0.001), IHD (-19.4±4.3, p<0.001), and positively correlated to HALE (0.40±0.14, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

TJDS is a good indicator of a healthy diet, and applies to preventing obesity, IHD and extending HALE.

Relationship between the administration of nicardipine hydrochloride and the development of delirium in patients on mechanical ventilation

A history of hypertension is a known risk factor for delirium in patients in intensive care units, but the effect of antihypertensive agents on delirium development is unclear. Nicardipine, a calcium channel blocker, is widely used in ICU as a treatment agent for hypertensive emergency. This study investigated the relationship between the administration of nicardipine hydrochloride and delirium development in patients under mechanical ventilation. We conducted a medical chart review of 103 patients, who were divided into two groups according to the use of nicardipine hydrochloride. The prevalence of delirium was compared with respect to factors such as age, sex, laboratory data, and medical history, by multivariate analysis. 21 patients (20.4 %) were treated with nicardipine hydrochloride in 103 patients. The treatment and non-treatment groups differed significantly in age (72 vs. 65 years) and history of high blood pressure (57% vs. 11%). Multivariate analysis revealed that patients in the treatment group developed delirium significantly less often than those in the non-treatment group (19% vs. 48%). These results suggested that treatment of high blood pressure with nicardipine hydrochloride is a possible method for preventing the development of delirium.

Circadian Rhythm Estimation by Core Body Temperature Filtered with Simultaneously Recorded Physiological Data

In field measurements, monitoring of core body temperature is influenced by physical activities; therefore, the estimation of circadian rhythm from the data may not be exact. The purpose of this study is to design a core body temperature filter in order to reduce artifacts induced by physical activities using simultaneously recorded physiological data such as heart rate data.

The effects of physical activities on core body temperature and heart rate are assessed through three experiments. Based on the above knowledge, a core body temperature filter was designed. The filter removes part of rectal temperature data as artifact when heart rate rises above a predetermined threshold. As a result, most of the spike-like noise was removed and the filtered temperature data showed sinusoidal variation more than the unfiltered data. The mesor of the estimated rhythm significantly decreased. This filtering method can provide more precise information about circadian rhythm, especially in field measurements.

Age-Related 12-Year Changes in Dietary Diversity and Food Intakes among Community-Dwelling Japanese Aged 40 to 79 Years

OBJECTIVES

This study describes trends in dietary diversity and food intake over 12 years according to age at first participation in the study.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The National Institute for Longevity Sciences - Longitudinal Study of Aging, a community-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants included 922 men and 879 women who participated in the first study-wave (age, 40-79 years) and also participated in at least one study-wave from the second to seventh study-wave. Study-waves were conducted biennially.

MEASUREMENTS

Dietary intake was calculated from 3-day dietary records with photographs. Dietary diversity was determined using the Quantitative Index for Dietary Diversity based on food intake. A mixed-effects model was used to estimate linear changes in dietary diversity and food intake over 12 years according to age at first study-wave.

RESULTS

Mean (standard deviation (SD)) follow-up time and number of study-wave visits were 9.5 (3.7) years and 5.4 (1.8), respectively. Mean (SD, range) dietary diversity score was 0.86 (0.06, 0.52-0.96) in men and 0.88 (0.04, 0.66-0.96) in women, respectively. Fixed effects for interactions of age and time with dietary diversity score were statistically significant (p<0.05). The slope of dietary diversity among men aged 40 to 55 years increased (40-year-old slope = 0.00093/year, p<0.01; 55-year-old slope = 0.00035/year, p=0.04), with a decreasing trend started at 65 years old, although this trend was not significant (65-year-old slope = -0.00003/year, p=0.88; 79-year-old slope = -0.00057/year, p=0.21). The slope of dietary diversity among women aged 40 to 44 years increased (40-year-old slope = 0.00053/year, p=0.02; 44-year-old slope = 0.00038/year, p=0.04), whereas the slope of dietary diversity among women aged 63 to 79 years decreased (63-year-old slope = -0.00033/year, p=0.03; 79-year-old slope = -0.00092/year, p<0.001). Fruit, milk and dairy intake decreased in men around their 60s; milk and dairy intake decreased in women around their 50s; and beans and fruit intake decreased in women from their 70s.

CONCLUSION

Twelve-year longitudinal data showed dietary diversity declined in women in their 60s. In terms of food intake, fruit, milk and dairy intake decreased in both sexes in their 50s and 60s; such declines would lower dietary diversity.

The significance of bromide in the Brust-Schiffrin synthesis of thiol protected gold nanoparticles

The mechanism of the two-phase Brust-Schiffrin synthesis of alkane thiol protected metal nanoparticles is known to be highly sensitive to the precursor species and reactant conditions. In this work X-ray absorption spectroscopy is used in conjunction with liquid/liquid electrochemistry to highlight the significance of Br^- in the reaction mechanism. The species [AuBr₄]^- is shown to be a preferable precursor in the Brust-Schiffrin method as it is more resistant to the formation of Au(i) thiolate species than [AuCl₄]^-. Previous literature has demonstrated that avoidance of the Au(i) thiolate is critical to achieving a good yield of nanoparticles, as [Au(i)X₂]^- species are more readily reduced by NaBH₄. We propose that the observed behavior of [AuBr₄]^- species described herein explains the discrepancies in reported behavior present in the literature to date. This new mechanistic understanding should enable nanoparticle synthesis with a higher yield and reduce particle size polydispersity.

Predictive models for conversion of prediabetes to diabetes

AIM

To clarify the natural course of prediabetes and develop predictive models for conversion to diabetes.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal study of 2105 adults with prediabetes was carried out with a mean observation period of 4.7years. Models were developed using multivariate logistic regression analysis and verified by 10-fold cross-validation. The relationship between [final BMI minus baseline BMI] (δBMI) and incident diabetes was analyzed post hoc by comparing the diabetes conversion rate for low (< -0.31kg/m²) and high δBMI (≥ -0.31kg/m²) subjects after matching the two groups for the covariates.

RESULTS

Diabetes developed in 252 (2.5%/year), and positive family history, male sex, higher systolic blood pressure, plasma glucose (fasting and 1h- and 2h-values during 75g OGTT), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and alanine aminotransferase were significant, independent predictors for the conversion. By using a risk score (RS) that took account of all these variables, incident diabetes was predicted with an area under the ROC curve (95% CI) of 0.80 (0.70-0.87) and a specificity of prediction of 61.8% at 80% sensitivity. On division of the participants into high- (n=248), intermediate- (n=336) and low-risk (n=1521) populations, the conversion rates were 40.1%, 18.5% and 5.9%, respectively. The conversion rate was lower in subjects with low than high δBMI (9.2% vs 14.4%, p=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes conversion to diabetes could be predicted with accuracy, and weight reduction during the observation was associated with lowered conversion rate.