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Gupta RK, Calderwood CJ, Yavlinsky A, Krutikov M, Quartagno M, Aichelburg MC, Altet N, Diel R, Dobler CC, Dominguez J, Doyle JS, Erkens C, Geis S, Haldar P, Hauri AM, Hermansen T, Johnston JC, Lange C, Lange B, van Leth F, Muñoz L, Roder C, Romanowski K, Roth D, Sester M, Sloot R, Sotgiu G, Woltmann G, Yoshiyama T, Zellweger JP, Zenner D, Aldridge RW, Copas A, Rangaka MX, Lipman M, Noursadeghi M, Abubakar I. Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings. Nat Med 2020; 26:1941-1949. [PMID: 33077958 PMCID: PMC7614810 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1076-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rishi K Gupta
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Alexei Yavlinsky
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maria Krutikov
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matteo Quartagno
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Neus Altet
- Unitat de Tuberculosis, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron-Drassanes, Barcelona, Spain
- Unitat de TDO de la Tuberculosis 'Servicios Clínicos', Barcelona, Spain
| | - Roland Diel
- Institute for Epidemiology, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Campus Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- Lung Clinic Grosshansdorf, Airway Research Center North (ARCN), Großhansdorf, Germany
| | - Claudia C Dobler
- Institute for Evidence-Based Healthcare, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Liverpool Hospital, Sydney, Australia
| | - Jose Dominguez
- Institut d'Investigació Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Enfermedades Respiratorias, Badalona, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Badalona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joseph S Doyle
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Alfred and Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Connie Erkens
- KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Steffen Geis
- Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hospital Hygiene, Philipps University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Pranabashis Haldar
- Respiratory Biomedical Research Centre, Institute for Lung Health, Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | | | - Thomas Hermansen
- International Reference Laboratory of Mycobacteriology, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - James C Johnston
- British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Christoph Lange
- Division of Clinical Infectious Diseases, Research Center Borstel, Borstel, Germany
- German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Clinical Tuberculosis Center, Borstel, Germany
- Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Berit Lange
- Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany
| | - Frank van Leth
- Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany
- Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Global Health, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Laura Muñoz
- Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Christine Roder
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Alfred and Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Kamila Romanowski
- British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - David Roth
- British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Martina Sester
- Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany
- Department of Transplant and Infection Immunology, Saarland University, Homburg, Germany
| | - Rosa Sloot
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Giovanni Sotgiu
- Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medical, Surgical and Experimental Sciences, Uniiversity of Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | - Gerrit Woltmann
- Respiratory Biomedical Research Centre, Institute for Lung Health, Department of Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | | | - Jean-Pierre Zellweger
- Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group (TBnet), Borstel, Germany
- Swiss Lung Association, Berne, Switzerland
| | - Dominik Zenner
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert W Aldridge
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Andrew Copas
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Molebogeng X Rangaka
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, UK
- Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa, Institute of Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Marc Lipman
- UCL-TB and UCL Respiratory, University College London, London, UK
- Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | | | - Ibrahim Abubakar
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
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Hermansen T, Lillebaek T, Hansen ABE, Andersen PH, Ravn P. QuantiFERON–TB Gold In-Tube test performance in Denmark. Tuberculosis (Edinb) 2015; 94:616-21. [PMID: 25448289 DOI: 10.1016/j.tube.2014.09.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2014] [Revised: 09/17/2014] [Accepted: 09/23/2014] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Little is known about the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube Test (QFT) in extreme age groups. The test performance has been reported to be impaired in children and elderly, but reports are diverging. The aim of this study was to evaluate QFT performance in patients with and without Tuberculosis (TB). METHODS A retrospective study analysing the results of 18,850 QFT performed in Denmark 2005-2010. The effect of age, sex, localisation of TB, and result of culture on QFT performance (positive, negative and indeterminate results) was determined. RESULTS Among 383 patients with TB, indeterminate rate was low (3.9%, 15/383). Sensitivity was high (86.1%, 317/368) and not affected by sex or localization of TB disease, but declined with increasing age (p < 0.0001). In children 1-4 years old, sensitivity was high (100%, 9/9). Among 15,709 persons without TB, the indeterminate rate was 5.1% (804/15,709) and significantly higher in infants <1 year (15.6%, 5/32) and elderly >65 years (8.1%, 219/2715) compared to the adult population 15-64 years (4.5%, 552/12,317). Indeterminate results were due to a low positive control in 99.6% (801/804). CONCLUSION In Denmark, a TB low incidence country, the overall QFT performance was good. The sensitivity in children (≥ 1) was high although few children were included, whereas sensitivity declined with increasing age. Indeterminate rates were higher in infants and elderly. In contrast to current guidelines, our data suggest that the QFT performs well in children ≥ 1 years in low endemic regions but that the test should be used with care among the elderly.
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