Mapping potential effects of proposed roads on migratory connectivity for a highly mobile herbivore using circuit theory

Migration is common worldwide as species access spatiotemporally varying resources and avoid predators and parasites. However, long-distance migrations are increasingly imperiled due to development and habitat fragmentation. Improved understanding of migratory behavior has implications for conservation and management of migratory species, allowing identification and protection of seasonal ranges and migration corridors. We present a technique that applies circuit theory to predict future effects of development by analyzing season-specific resistance to movement from anthropogenic and natural environmental features across an entire migratory path. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by examining potential effects of a proposed road system on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) and subsistence hunters in northern Alaska. Resource selection functions revealed migratory selection by caribou. We tested five scenarios relating habitat selection to landscape resistance using Circuitscape and GPS telemetry data. To examine the effect of potential roads on connectivity of migrating animals and human hunters, we compared current flow values near communities in the presence of proposed roads. Caribou avoided dense vegetation, rugged terrain, major rivers, and existing roads in both spring and fall. A negative linear relationship between resource selection and landscape resistance was strongly supported for fall migration while spring migration featured a negative logarithmic relationship. Overall patterns of caribou connectivity remained similar in the presence of proposed roads, though reduced current flow was predicted for communities near the center of current migration areas. Such data can inform decisions to allow or disallow projects or to select among alternative development proposals and mitigation measures, though consideration of cumulative effects of development is needed. Our approach is flexible and can easily be adapted to other species, locations and development scenarios to expand understanding of movement behavior and to evaluate proposed developments. Such information is vital to inform policy decisions that balance new development, resource user needs, and preservation of ecosystem function.

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat.

Plant growth, biomass partitioning and soil carbon formation in response to altered lignin biosynthesis in Populus tremuloides

We conducted a glasshouse mesocosm study that combined (13)C isotope techniques with wild-type and transgenic aspen (Populus tremuloides) in order to examine how altered lignin biosynthesis affects plant production and soil carbon formation. Our transgenic aspen lines expressed low stem lignin concentration but normal cellulose concentration, low lignin stem concentration with high cellulose concentration or an increased stem syringyl to guaiacyl lignin ratio. Large differences in stem lignin concentration observed across lines were not observed in leaves or fine roots. Nonetheless, low lignin lines accumulated 15-17% less root C and 33-43% less new soil C than the control line. Compared with the control line, transformed aspen expressing high syringyl lignin accumulated 30% less total plant C - a result of greatly reduced total leaf area - and 70% less new soil C. These findings suggest that altered stem lignin biosynthesis in Populus may have little effect on the chemistry of fine roots or leaves, but can still have large effects on plant growth, biomass partitioning and soil C formation.

Reduction of soil carbon formation by tropospheric ozone under increased carbon dioxide levels

In the Northern Hemisphere, ozone levels in the troposphere have increased by 35 per cent over the past century, with detrimental impacts on forest and agricultural productivity, even when forest productivity has been stimulated by increased carbon dioxide levels. In addition to reducing productivity, increased tropospheric ozone levels could alter terrestrial carbon cycling by lowering the quantity and quality of carbon inputs to soils. However, the influence of elevated ozone levels on soil carbon formation and decomposition are unknown. Here we examine the effects of elevated ozone levels on the formation rates of total and decay-resistant acid-insoluble soil carbon under conditions of elevated carbon dioxide levels in experimental aspen (Populus tremuloides) stands and mixed aspen-birch (Betula papyrifera) stands. With ambient concentrations of ozone and carbon dioxide both raised by 50 per cent, we find that the formation rates of total and acid-insoluble soil carbon are reduced by 50 per cent relative to the amounts entering the soil when the forests were exposed to increased carbon dioxide alone. Our results suggest that, in a world with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, global-scale reductions in plant productivity due to elevated ozone levels will also lower soil carbon formation rates significantly.