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Bellis J, Osazuwa-Peters O, Maschinski J, Keir MJ, Parsons EW, Kaye TN, Kunz M, Possley J, Menges E, Smith SA, Roth D, Brewer D, Brumback W, Lange JJ, Niederer C, Turner-Skoff JB, Bontrager M, Braham R, Coppoletta M, Holl KD, Williamson P, Bell T, Jonas JL, McEachern K, Robertson KL, Birnbaum SJ, Dattilo A, Dollard JJ, Fant J, Kishida W, Lesica P, Link SO, Pavlovic NB, Poole J, Reemts CM, Stiling P, Taylor DD, Titus JH, Titus PJ, Adkins ED, Chambers T, Paschke MW, Heineman KD, Albrecht MA. Identifying predictors of translocation success in rare plant species. Conserv Biol 2024; 38:e14190. [PMID: 37768181 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2023] [Revised: 08/10/2023] [Accepted: 09/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
The fundamental goal of a rare plant translocation is to create self-sustaining populations with the evolutionary resilience to persist in the long term. Yet, most plant translocation syntheses focus on a few factors influencing short-term benchmarks of success (e.g., survival and reproduction). Short-term benchmarks can be misleading when trying to infer future growth and viability because the factors that promote establishment may differ from those required for long-term persistence. We assembled a large (n = 275) and broadly representative data set of well-documented and monitored (7.9 years on average) at-risk plant translocations to identify the most important site attributes, management techniques, and species' traits for six life-cycle benchmarks and population metrics of translocation success. We used the random forest algorithm to quantify the relative importance of 29 predictor variables for each metric of success. Drivers of translocation outcomes varied across time frames and success metrics. Management techniques had the greatest relative influence on the attainment of life-cycle benchmarks and short-term population trends, whereas site attributes and species' traits were more important for population persistence and long-term trends. Specifically, large founder sizes increased the potential for reproduction and recruitment into the next generation, whereas declining habitat quality and the outplanting of species with low seed production led to increased extinction risks and a reduction in potential reproductive output in the long-term, respectively. We also detected novel interactions between some of the most important drivers, such as an increased probability of next-generation recruitment in species with greater seed production rates, but only when coupled with large founder sizes. Because most significant barriers to plant translocation success can be overcome by improving techniques or resolving site-level issues through early intervention and management, we suggest that by combining long-term monitoring with adaptive management, translocation programs can enhance the prospects of achieving long-term success.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joe Bellis
- Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
- Center for Plant Conservation, Escondido, California, USA
| | - Oyomoare Osazuwa-Peters
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Joyce Maschinski
- Center for Plant Conservation, Escondido, California, USA
- Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Coral Gables, Florida, USA
| | - Matthew J Keir
- Department of Land and Natural Resources, Hawai'i Division of Forestry and Wildlife, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Elliott W Parsons
- Pacific Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Management Network, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Thomas N Kaye
- Institute for Applied Ecology, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
- Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
| | - Michael Kunz
- North Carolina Botanical Garden, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Eric Menges
- Archbold Biological Station, Venus, Florida, USA
| | - Stacy A Smith
- Archbold Biological Station, Venus, Florida, USA
- Agronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Daniela Roth
- New Mexico Energy, Minerals, and Natural Resources Department, Forestry Division, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
| | - Debbie Brewer
- Fort Huachuca Environmental and Natural Resources Division, Fort Huachuca, Arizona, USA
| | | | - James J Lange
- Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Coral Gables, Florida, USA
| | | | | | - Megan Bontrager
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Richard Braham
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Karen D Holl
- Environmental Studies Department, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Paula Williamson
- Department of Biology, Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, USA
| | | | - Jayne L Jonas
- Department of Biology, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, Nebraska, USA
| | - Kathryn McEachern
- U.S. Geological Survey, WERC-Channel Islands Field Station, Ventura, California, USA
| | | | | | - Adam Dattilo
- Tennessee Valley Authority, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
| | - John J Dollard
- Croatan National Forest, Forest Service, New Bern, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Wendy Kishida
- Department of Land and Natural Resources, Hawai'i Division of Forestry and Wildlife, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Peter Lesica
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Steven O Link
- Department of Natural Resources, Energy and Environmental Sciences Program, Pendleton, Oregon, USA
| | - Noel B Pavlovic
- U.S. Geological Survey, GLSC - Lake Michigan Ecological Research Station, Chesterton, Indiana, USA
| | - Jackie Poole
- Texas Parks & Wildlife Department, Austin, Texas, USA
| | | | - Peter Stiling
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
| | - David D Taylor
- Daniel Boone National Forest, USDA Forest Service, Winchester, Kentucky, USA
| | - Jonathan H Titus
- Biology Department, Science Center, State University of New York, Fredonia, New York, USA
| | | | - Edith D Adkins
- Pacific Cooperative Studies Unit, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Timothy Chambers
- U.S Army Natural Resources Program on Oahu, Schofield Barracks, Hawaii, USA
| | - Mark W Paschke
- Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Matthew A Albrecht
- Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
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