Validation of Frail Scale and comparison with hospital frailty risk score to predict hospital use in a cohort of older Australian women

INTRODUCTION

With no standard frailty tool for clinical care, research and policymaking, identifying frail older people is a challenge.

AIMS

This study aimed to compare two validated scales, which are the Frail Scale and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) for their ability in identifying frailty in older Australian women and predicting hospital use.

METHODS

This study included older Australian women aged 75-95 years, who had unplanned overnight hospital admission as an index admission between 2001 and 2016. Data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were linked with administrative hospital data to calculate HFRS (using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Australia Modification (ICD-10-AM) diagnostic codes) and the Frail Scale (using the ALSWH self-reported survey).

RESULTS

The Frail Scale identified a higher proportion of older frail women (30.54%) compared to the HFRS (23.0%). Frail older women, classified by Frail Scale, were at higher risk of long hospital stay (adjusted odds ratio = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.02-1.60), repeated admission (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.03-1.41) and death (AHR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.45-2.01). HFRS was associated with longer hospital stay and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of older women classified as frail by the Frail Scale tool was higher than women classified as frail by HFRS. The Frail Scale and HFRS were not significantly associated with each other. While both tools were associated with the risk of long hospital stay and mortality, only the Frail Scale predicted the risk of repeated admission.

Age and cohort rise in diabetes prevalence among older Australian women: Case ascertainment using survey and healthcare administrative data

BACKGROUND

Due to the absence and or costliness of biological measures such as glycated haemoglobin, diabetes case ascertainment and prevalence studies are usually conducted using surveys or routine health service use databases. However, the use of each of these sources is associated with its limitations potentially impacting the quality of the case ascertainment and prevalence estimation. This study aimed at ascertaining diabetes cases and estimating prevalence among mid- and older-age women through simultaneous use of a longitudinal survey and multiple healthcare administrative data sources.

METHODS

Data were available for 12,432 and 13,714 women born in 1921-26 and 1946-51 from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH). Diabetes was ascertained using the ALSWH survey, health service use, and cause of death data. Parsimonious multiple logistic regression analyses tested associations between sociodemographic and health variables and the presence of diabetes.

RESULTS

In both cohorts, two or more of the sources captured more than 80% of the women with diabetes. The point prevalence of diabetes increased from 8.4% when the mean age of the women were aged 73, to 22.0% of surviving women at age 90 in the 1921-26 cohort; and from 2.6% at age 48 to 15.8% at age 68 in the 1946-51 cohort. In the 1921-26 cohort, women who were obese (OR: 3.56; 95 CI: 3.04-4.17) and women who were sedentary (OR: 1.18; 95 CI: 1.09-1.40) were more likely to have diabetes compared to those who had a normal weight and engaged in a moderate level of physical activity. In the 1946-51 cohort, the odds of diabetes increased three times (OR: 2.99; 95 CI: 2.54-3.52) for overweight women and nine times (OR: 8.78; 95 CI: 7.46-10.33) for obese women compared to those who had normal weight.

CONCLUSIONS

The simultaneous use of multiple data sources improved the validity of diabetes case ascertainment. Application of this methodology in future studies may have important benefits including estimation of disease burden, health service needs, and resource allocation with improved precision. Diabetes prevalence increased with age, was much higher in the 1946-51 cohort than in 1921-26 at similar ages, and was significantly associated with physical inactivity and obesity. Interventions to promote physical activity and a healthy weight are needed to prevent the rising prevalence of diabetes across successive generations.

The incomparability of cause of death statistics under "one country, two systems": Shanghai versus Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Valid and comparable cause of death (COD) statistics are crucial for health policy analyses. Variations in COD assignment across geographical areas are well-documented while socio-institutional factors may affect the process of COD and underlying cause of death (UCD) determination. This study examines the comparability of UCD statistics in Hong Kong and Shanghai, having two political systems within one country, and assesses how socio-institutional factors influence UCD comparability.

METHODS

A mixed method was used. Quantitative analyses involved anonymized official mortality records. Mortality rates were analyzed by location of death. To analyze the odds ratio of being assigned to a particular UCD, logistic regressions were performed. Qualitative analyses involved literature reviews and semi-structural interviews with key stakeholders in death registration practices. Thematic analysis was used.

RESULTS

Age-standardized death rates from certain immediate conditions (e.g., septicemia, pneumonia, and renal failure) were higher in Hong Kong. Variations in UCD determination may be attributed to preference of location of death, procedures of registering deaths outside hospital, perceptions on the causal chain of COD, implications of the selected UCD for doctors' professional performance, and governance and processes of data quality review.

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in socio-institutional factors were related to the process of certifying and registering COD in Hong Kong and Shanghai. To improve regional data comparability, health authorities should develop standard procedures for registering deaths outside hospital, provide guidelines and regular training for doctors, develop a unified automated coding system, consolidate a standard procedure for data review and validity checks, and disseminate information concerning both UCD and multiple causes of death.

Four Decades of Obesity Trends among Non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks in the United States: Analyzing the Influences of Educational Inequalities in Obesity and Population Improvements in Education

Both obesity (body mass index ≥ 30) and educational attainment have increased dramatically in the United States since the 1970s. This study analyzed the influences of educational inequalities in obesity and population improvements in education on national obesity trends between 1970 and 2010. For non-Hispanic white and black males and females aged 25-74 years, educational differences in the probability of being obese were estimated from the 1971-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, and population distributions of age and educational groups, from the 1970 Census and 2010 American Community Survey. In the total population, obesity increased from 15.7% to 38.8%, and there were increases in the greater obese probabilities of non-college graduates relative to four-year college graduates. The increase in obesity would have been lower by 10% (2.2 percentage points) if educational inequalities in obesity had stayed at their 1970 values and lower by one third (7.9 points) if obesity inequalities had been eliminated. Obesity inequalities were larger for females than males and for whites than blacks, and obesity did not differ by education among black males. As a result, the impact of obesity inequalities on the obesity trend was largest among white females (a 47% reduction in the obesity increase if obesity inequalities had been eliminated), and virtually zero among black males. On the other hand, without educational improvements, the obesity increase would have been 9% more in the total population, 23% more among white females and not different in the other three subpopulations. Results indicate that obesity inequalities made sizable contributions to the obesity trends, and the obesity reductions associated with educational improvements were more limited.