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Li Q, Zheng JX, Jia TW, Feng XY, Lv C, Zhang LJ, Yang GJ, Xu J, Zhou XN. Optimized strategy for schistosomiasis elimination: results from marginal benefit modeling. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:419. [PMID: 37968661 PMCID: PMC10652544 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-06001-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Poverty contributes to the transmission of schistosomiasis via multiple pathways, with the insufficiency of appropriate interventions being a crucial factor. The aim of this article is to provide more economical and feasible intervention measures for endemic areas with varying levels of poverty. METHODS We collected and analyzed the prevalence patterns along with the cost of control measures in 11 counties over the last 20 years in China. Seven machine learning models, including XGBoost, support vector machine, generalized linear model, regression tree, random forest, gradient boosting machine and neural network, were used for developing model and calculate marginal benefits. RESULTS The XGBoost model had the highest prediction accuracy with an R2 of 0.7308. Results showed that risk surveillance, snail control with molluscicides and treatment were the most effective interventions in controlling schistosomiasis prevalence. The best combination of interventions was interlacing seven interventions, including risk surveillance, treatment, toilet construction, health education, snail control with molluscicides, cattle slaughter and animal chemotherapy. The marginal benefit of risk surveillance is the most effective intervention among nine interventions, which was influenced by the prevalence of schistosomiasis and cost. CONCLUSIONS In the elimination phase of the national schistosomiasis program, emphasizing risk surveillance holds significant importance in terms of cost-saving.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qin Li
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Jin-Xin Zheng
- Ruijin Hospital Affiliated to The Shanghai Jiao Tong University Medical School, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Tie-Wu Jia
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Xin-Yu Feng
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Chao Lv
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research and Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, One Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University and The Edinburgh University, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Li-Juan Zhang
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Guo-Jing Yang
- School of Tropical Medicine, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, 571199, China
| | - Jing Xu
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China
| | - Xiao-Nong Zhou
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Shanghai, 200025, China.
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research and Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, One Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University and The Edinburgh University, Shanghai, 200025, China.
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