Construction and validation of a nomogram for cancer specific survival of postoperative pancreatic cancer based on the SEER and China database

BACKGROUND

The recurrence rate and mortality rate among postoperative pancreatic cancer patients remain elevated. This study aims to develop and validate the cancer-specific survival period for individuals who have undergone pancreatic cancer surgery.

METHODS

We extracted eligible data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided all patients into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort. External validation was performed using a separate Chinese cohort. The nomogram was developed using significant risk factors identified through univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. The effectiveness of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the time-dependent curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were utilized to visualize the risk stratification of nomogram and AJCC stage.

RESULTS

Seven variables were identified through univariate and multivariate analysis to construct the nomogram. The consistency index of the nomogram for predicting overall survival was 0.683 (95% CI: 0.675-0.690), 0.689 (95% CI: 0.677-0.701), and 0.823 (95% CI: 0.786-0.860). The AUC values for the 1- and 2-year time-ROC curves were 0.751 and 0.721 for the training cohort, 0.731 and 0.7554 for the internal validation cohort, and 0.901 and 0.830 for the external validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrated favorable consistency between the predictions of the nomogram and actual observations. Moreover, the decision curve analysis indicated the clinical utility of the nomogram, and the risk stratification of the nomogram effectively identified high-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram guides clinicians in assessing the survival period of postoperative pancreatic cancer patients, identifying high-risk groups, and devising tailored follow-up strategies.

Construction and validation of a SEER-based prognostic nomogram for young and middle-aged males patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common digestive tumor, and we aimed to develop and validate nomogram models, predicting the overall survival (OS) of young and middle-aged male patients with HCC.

METHODS

We extracted eligible data from relevant patients between 2000 and 2017 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. In addition, randomly divided all patients into two groups (training and validation = 7:3). The nomogram was established using effective risk factors based on univariate and multivariate analysis. The area under the time-dependent curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the effective performance of the nomogram. The risk stratifications of the nomogram and the AJCC criteria-based tumor stage were compared.

RESULTS

11 variables were selected by univariate and multivariate analysis to establish the nomogram of HCC. The AUC values of 3, 4, and 5 years of the time-ROC curve are 0.858, 0.862 and 0.859 for the training cohort, and 0.858, 0.877 and 0.869 for the validation cohort, respectively, indicating that the nomogram has a good ability of discrimination. The calibration plots showed favorable consistency between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observations in both the training and validation cohorts. In addition, the decision curve DCA showed that the nomogram was clinically useful and had better discriminative ability to recognize patients at high risk than the AJCC criteria-based tumor stage.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic nomogram of young and middle-aged male patients with HCC was developed and validated to help clinicians evaluate the prognosis of patients.