Construction of China's food security evaluation index system and spatiotemporal evolution

Food security is a vital material foundation for a nation's development and has been a topic of significant concern on the international stage in recent years. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, China is not only a major producer but also a substantial consumer of food. Ensuring food security in China is not only a top priority for its socio-economic development but also a driving force in maintaining the stability of the global food supply chain and reducing the number of hungry people worldwide. However, a lack of comprehensive research into the Chinese food security system remains. This study addresses this gap by constructing a comprehensive evaluation framework encompassing four dimensions: food supply, accessibility, production stability, and sustainability. Utilizing the Moran's Index and generating LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) maps, we analyze the spatial correlations of food security. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are applied to assess heterogeneity and spatial disparities. Furthermore, this research employs the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model to forecast food security trends. The findings reveal that the overall composite food security score exhibited fluctuations, initially increasing and reaching its peak of 0.407 in 2003, followed by a subsequent sharp decline after 2019. Spatially, food security exhibits correlations, with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Northeast regions consistently showing high-high clustering. In contrast, the Western and Southern regions exhibit low-low clustering at specific periods. The Dagum Gini coefficient indicates that overall food security disparities are relatively small. However, these disparities have gradually expanded in recent years, with inter-group differences becoming predominant after 2005. As indicated by the kernel density estimation, the dynamic distribution of food security initially widens and then narrows, suggesting a shift from dispersed to concentrated data distribution. This phenomenon is accompanied by polarization and convergence trends, particularly evident after 2015. According to the ETS model, the study forecasts a substantial risk of declining food security in China over the next decade, largely influenced by the ongoing pandemic. In conclusion, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of the changing status of food security in China. It offers early warnings through predictive analysis, addressing the existing research gaps in the field of food security.

China's sustainable carbon neutral supply chain management: a reference to global emission reduction

Carbon emissions are a critical concern in the realm of energy consumption, with many nations committed to curbing them and striving for carbon neutrality. This research addresses a specific gap in the literature by focusing on carbon emission reduction in the industrial sector through the application of supply chain management (SCM) principles under a monopolistic competition context and by utilizing carbon neutral indicators. Specifically, we develop a mathematical model integrated into an agent-based simulation framework and employ experimental design methods to determine the most optimal decision-making processes for incorporating supply chain carbon neutral indicators. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of two specific carbon neutral indicators within SCM: green-credit policies and the promotion of green products. These measures contribute significantly toward reducing global carbon emissions. This paper offers insights for government decision-makers regarding ideal implementation levels and strategies for green credit policies and the promotion of green products within supply chain environments. It also provides guidance to manufacturers on how to achieve profit maximization while progressing towards carbon neutrality.