A new nomogram to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute decompensated chronic heart failure and diabetes after 48 Hours of Intensive Care Unit

BACKGROUND

The study set out to develop an accurate and clinically valuable prognostic nomogram to assess the risk of in-hospital death in patients with acute decompensated chronic heart failure (ADCHF) and diabetes.

METHODS

We extracted clinical data of patients diagnosed with ADCHF and diabetes from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. Risk variables were selected utilizing least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis, and were included in multivariate logistic regression and presented in nomogram. bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discriminative power and predictive accuracy of the nomogram were estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Among 867 patients with ADCHF and diabetes, In-hospital death occurred in 81 (9.3%) patients. Age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, red blood cell distribution width, shock, β-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, assisted ventilation, and blood urea nitrogen were brought into the nomogram model. The calibration curves suggested that the nomogram was well calibrated. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.873 (95% CI: 0.834-0.911), which was higher that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II [0.761 (95% CI: 0.711-0.810)] and sequential organ failure assessment score [0.699 (95% CI: 0.642-0.756)], and Guidelines-Heart Failure score [0.782 (95% CI: 0.731-0.835)], indicating that the nomogram had better ability to predict in-hospital mortality. In addition, the internally validated C-index was 0.857 (95% CI: 0.825-0.891), which again verified the validity of this model.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constructed a simple and accurate nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with ADCHF and diabetes, especially in those who admitted to the intensive care unit for more than 48 hours, which contributed clinicians to assess the risk and individualize the treatment of patients, thereby reducing in-hospital mortality.

Impact of NT-proBNP on prognosis of acute decompensated chronic heart failure versus de novo heart failure

BACKGROUND

NT-pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a powerful prognostic factor for acute heart failure. We investigated whether NT-proBNP levels differ based on the type of heart failure present.

METHODS

Using the Korean Acute Heart Failure Registry, a prospective, multicenter cohort, we categorized patients into two groups: de novo heart failure (DNHF, n = 1617) and acute decompensated chronic heart failure (ADHF, n = 1212). NT-proBNP levels were measured on admission. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcomes were re-hospitalization for heart failure and a composite of all-cause mortality or re-hospitalization for heart failure at 90 days and 1 year.

RESULTS

NT-proBNP levels were significantly lower in patients with DNHF than in those with ADHF (median 4213 vs. 5523 ng/L, p < 0.001). Compared to patients with DNHF, patients with ADHF had a significantly worse prognosis for 1-year all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-1.98], p = 0.017). A higher NT-proBNP level was associated with higher 1-year all-cause mortality for both heart failure types (adjusted HR = 2.00, p = 0.002 in ADHF; adjusted HR = 2.41, p = 0.003 in DNHF). However, all-cause mortality risk was always higher in patients with ADHF than in those with DNHF for any given NT-proBNP level.

CONCLUSION

NT-proBNP levels are an important prognostic factor for both DNHF and ADHF. Notably, patients with ADHF had consistently higher risks than those with DNHF with the same NT-proBNP level for 1-year all-cause mortality.

Vascular phenotypes of acute decompensated vs. new-onset heart failure: treatment implications

Aims

Acute heart failure (HF) is a frequent and life‐threatening syndrome with heterogeneous clinical, haemodynamic, and neurohormonal features. This article describes the vascular phenotypes associated with acute decompensated chronic HF (ADCHF), and new‐onset acute HF (NOAHF).

Data Synthesis

Worsening of chronic HF occurs with full activation of adaptive mechanisms that maintain blood pressure (BP) and systemic perfusion. Rapid onset of HF in the setting of previous normal functioning heart not only does not allow full activation of adaptive mechanisms but also generates inappropriate responses from systemic endothelium leading to low BP/hypotension. Consequently, the treatment of ADCHF is based on diuretics and vasodilators, while in NOAHF, vasoconstrictors may be required to maintain BP to allow the correction of the acute cardiac disease.

Conclusions

Patients with ADCHF and NOAHF present different vascular phenotypes with treatment implications.