Carbon emissions changes of animal husbandry in China: Trends, attributions, and solutions: A spatial shift-share analysis

China is a major livestock producer confronting the dual challenges of rising demand for animal-based food consumption and decreasing carbon emissions. To effectively address these issues, it is crucial to understand the trends of carbon emissions from animal husbandry and the competitive advantages of carbon emission reduction in different regions. This study uses panel data from 31 provinces from 2004 to 2020 to investigate the contributing factors to carbon emissions and explore ways to reduce carbon intensity in animal husbandry. The analysis employs spatial shift-share analysis and the spatial Durbin model. Our findings indicate that life-cycle carbon emissions associated with animal husbandry in China decreased from 572.411 Mt CO2eq to 520.413 Mt CO2eq over time, with an average annual decline of 0.568 %. The annual contribution of output value and internal industry-mix adjustment to carbon emission growth is 22.639 MT CO2eq and 6.226 MT CO2eq, respectively. On the other hand, the annual contribution of carbon efficiency improvement to carbon emission reduction is much higher, at 36.316 MT CO2eq. However, there is significant regional heterogeneity in the spatial decomposition of the carbon efficiency change component. The Northeastern region, Northwest and along the Great Wall demonstrate neighborhood advantages in enhancing carbon efficiency. In contrast, the South China and Southwest regions rely more on local carbon efficiency advantages to reduce the carbon intensity of animal husbandry. Furthermore, the carbon intensity in local and neighboring areas can be reduced through environmental regulations and industrial agglomeration. While technical progress significantly negatively impacts carbon intensity in neighboring regions, it does not contribute to reducing the carbon intensity of local animal husbandry. The findings provide valuable insights for local governments, aiding them in recognizing the pros and cons of carbon reduction in animal husbandry and strengthening regional cooperation in emission reduction management.

Quantifying the contribution of local drivers to observed weakening of spring dust storm frequency over northern China (1982-2017)

Recent studies have suggested that spring dust storm (SDS) events in northern China (NC) have exhibited substantial decline over the past 30 years. However, it is unclear which local factors are most responsible for the decline in SDS events, and the contribution of each dominant factor remains to be determined. This study utilized high-density DS records and collocated homogenized surface meteorological observations from 1982 to 2017, in conjunction with land surface products, to examine the local drivers that influence the long-term variation in SDS frequency (SDSF) over the entire NC area and its three dust-source areas: northwestern China (NWC), north-central China (NCC), and northeastern China (NEC). Results indicated that the observed SDSF averaged over NC, NWC, NCC, and NEC has decreased by 144.4 %, 109.3 %, 166.4 %, and 92.2 %, respectively, during 1982-2017. The variation in SDSF is largely explained by variation in wind speed (WS), precipitation, volumetric soil moisture, and surface bareness. A multivariable linear regression model incorporating these local drivers accounted for 81.0 %, 74.0 %, and 46.9 % of the variance in SDSF in NWC, NCC, and NEC, respectively. Statistical analyses on the local drivers suggested that weakening of WS was the dominant factor in the reduction in SDSF over recent decades, contributing 76.9 %, 54.7 %, and 33.6 % of the variation in NWC, NCC, and NEC, respectively. More importantly, we revealed that the interannual variation in regional SDSF was not only controlled by local drivers, but also influenced by cross-regional transport of dust aerosols emitted from upstream source areas.