Hybrid off-grid energy systems optimal sizing with integrated hydrogen storage based on deterministic balance approach

The transition to sustainable power infrastructure necessitates integrating various renewable energy sources efficiently. Our study introduces the deterministic balanced method (DBM) for optimizing hybrid energy systems, with a particular focus on using hydrogen for energy balance. The DBM translates the sizing optimization problem into a deterministic one, significantly reducing the number of iterations compared to state-of-the-art methods. Comparative analysis with HOMER Pro demonstrates a strong alignment of results, with deviations limited to a 5% margin, confirming the precision of our method in sizing determinations. Utilizing solar and wind data, our research includes a case study of Cairo International Airport, applying the DBM to actual energy demands.

Comparative risk assessment studies estimating the hazard posed by long-term consumption of PPCPs in river water

This study assesses the risk due to Emerging Contaminants (ECs), present in Indian rivers - Ganga (650 million inhabitants), Yamuna (57 million inhabitants), and Musi (7,500,000 inhabitants), 13 ECs in total, have been used for risk assessment studies. Their concentrations (e.g., Fluconazole: 236950 μg/l, Ciprofloxacin: 31000 μg/l, Caffeine: 21.57 μg/l, etc.) were higher than the threshold concentrations for safe consumption (e.g. Fluconazole allowable level is 3.8 μg/l, and Ciprofloxacin allowable level is 0.51 μg/l). Three different pathways of emerging contaminants (ECs) transfer (oral water ingestion, oral fish ingestion, and dermal water contact) have been considered and the study is carried out in 2 ways: (i) deterministic and (ii) probabilistic approaches (using Monte Carlo iterative methods with 10000 simulations) with the aid of a software - Risk (version 7.5). The risk value, quantified by Hazard Quotient (HQ) is higher than the allowable limit of 1 for several compounds in the three rivers like Fluconazole (HQ = 18276.713), Ciprofloxacin (HQ = 278.675), Voriconazole (HQ = 14.578), Cetirizine (HQ = 1006.917), Moxifloxacin (HQ = 8.076), Caffeine (HQ = 55.150), and Ibuprofen (HQ = 9.503). Results show that Fluconazole and Caffeine pose the maximum risk in the rivers via the "oral pathway" that allows maximum transfer of the ECs present in the river (93% and 82% contribution to total risk). The risk values vary from nearly 25 times to 19000 times the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) threshold limit of 1 (e.g., Caffeine Infant Risk = 25.990 and Fluconazole Adult Risk = 18276.713). The most susceptible age group, from this study, is "Adults" (19-70 years old), who stand the chance of experiencing the adverse health hazards associated with prolonged over-exposure to the ECs present in the river waters. Musi has the maximum concentration of pollutants and requires immediate remediation measures. Further, both methods indicate that nearly 60-70% of the population in all the three study areas are at risk of developing health hazards associated with over-exposure to ECs regularly, making the areas inhabitable.

Estimating the Jordanian population dietary exposure to pesticides residues: An exploratory deterministic approach

The Jordanian population's exposure to pesticides may have never been estimated. This study uses a deterministic approach as a screening method to determine the population's likelihood of daily dietary exposure to pesticide residues and identify pesticides that require further investigation. We investigated the data from surveillance programs to assess pesticide contamination in food. We also obtained data about the population's estimated consumption of different food items. The daily exposure to pesticide residues through food was estimated with two scenarios (Lu et al., 2006): the lower bound (LB) scenario and (Luo and Zhang, 2009) the upper bound (UB) scenario. The data provided the concentration of pesticides in 8085 food samples. In 15.7% of the samples, 134 pesticides were identified. The levels of quantified pesticides exceeded MRL in 41.7% of the samples. Under the LB, mean estimated daily exposures were higher than the acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) for 27 investigated residues. Using the UB scenario, which tends to overestimate exposure, the mean estimated daily exposures were above the ADIs for 111 residues. The study concludes that the population's dietary exposure to pesticide residues is noteworthy and provides a list of pesticides that could be consumed at levels higher than the relevant ADI value and thus require further assessment.

Development of human health criteria in China for benzo[a]pyrene: A comparison of deterministic and probabilistic approaches

Human health water quality criteria (HHWQC) for benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in Chinese rivers and lakes were established using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Results showed that the national bioaccumulation factor (BAF) values for BaP at trophic levels 2, 3, and 4 were 342 L/kg, 199 L/kg, and 196 L/kg, respectively. The probabilistic HHWQC for BaP was 0.00407 μg/L for both water and organisms consumption and 0.00488 μg/L for organisms consumption only, which provide a more adequate protection than the deterministic HHWQC. Approximately 32.1% of the studied waters in China exceeded the derived HHWQC, which is likely to have adverse health effects and need be considered more attention. The derived HHWQC for BaP is soly based on Chinese exposure-related activity patterns and field-measured BAFs in surface freshwaters in China, which is important to provide a scientific basis for establishing or revising water quality standards (WQS) and risk management of BaP in water.

Groundwater characterization and non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risk assessment of nitrate exposure in the Mahanadi River Basin of India

Agriculture is the mainstay of India's economy and chemical fertilizers have been extensively used to meet increasing demands. Anthropogenic interventions at the soil surface, especially the application of nitrogenous fertilizers in agricultural fields, provide essential nutrients but become major pollutant sources in terrestrial ecosystems and aquatic environments. Groundwater samples from phreatic aquifers of the Mahanadi River Basin, Chhattisgarh, India, showed that the Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO₃^- freshwater type dominates, followed by the Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-Cl- and Na⁺-HCO₃^- types. Increasing trends in the ionic ratios of (NO₃-+Cl-)/HCO₃- over TDS and of NO₃-/Cl- over Cl- indicated the significant impact of anthropogenic pollution on groundwater contamination. Deterministic and probabilistic approaches were used to assess the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks of nitrate to children and adults. Both approaches produced the same results and indicated children were more prone to non-carcinogenic health risk than adults. An excess gastric cancer risk (ER) exposure model showed that approximately 42% of the groundwater samples had a non-negligible ER (1.00 × 10^-4 to 1.00 × 10^-5). Sensitivity analysis indicated groundwater nitrate concentration, ingestion rate, and the percentage of nitrite from nitrate were the most significant variables in determining HI and ER. It is suggested to adopt proper management of control policies for reducing the elevated groundwater nitrate concentration in the present study area.

Deriving convincing human health ambient water quality criteria for benzo[a]pyrene and providing basis for the water quality management: The impacts of national bioaccumulation factors and probabilistic modeling

Science-based water quality criteria are the cornerstone of water quality standards. This paper improved the methodology for the derivation of human health water quality criteria (HHWQC) and applied it for benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) to provide a scientific basis for the management of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface waters. First, the national bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) for BaP were derived using field-measured BAFs and field-measured biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) across China, respectively, which results were comparable and demonstrated the reliability of the obtained national BAFs for BaP. The HHWQC for BaP derived using the probabilistic approach were 3.98-4.70 ng/L and were comparable with those derived by the deterministic approach, suggesting the accuracy of derived HHWQC for BaP. Through the probabilistic approach, the probability distributions of lifetime incremental cancer risk from BaP in water were provided and the consumption rates of aquatic products at trophic level 2 and 3 were identified as factors influencing risks of BaP significantly. The derived HHWQC for BaP in China are approximately 33-36 times higher than those in the United States because of the high national BAFs and cancer slope factor of BaP used for the United States. In addition, the recommended HHWQC for BaP conform to the situation in China and are approximately 1.5 times higher than the standard value of BaP in the current National Surface Water Quality Standard (GB 3838-2002) in China (2.80 ng/L), which will play an important role in the amendment of National Surface Water Quality Standard in the future. Approximately 36% of the studied surface freshwater in China contains BaP with levels exceeding the recommended HHWQC, suggesting the pollution of BaP in surface freshwater is severe and needs to be given more attention. This study is significant for the scientific development of HHWQC worldwide and the management of pollutants in water.

Interpreting the link value of similarity scores between illicit drug specimens through a dual approach, featuring deterministic and Bayesian frameworks

Illicit drug trafficking and in particular amphetamine-type stimulants continue to be a major problem in Australia. With the constant evolution of illicit drugs markets, it is necessary to gain as much knowledge about them to disrupt or reduce their impact. Illicit drug specimens can be analysed to generate forensic intelligence and understand criminal activities. Part of this analysis involves the evaluation of similarity scores between illicit drug profiles to interpret the link value. Most studies utilise one of two prominent score evaluation approaches, i.e. deterministic or Bayesian. In previous work, the notion of a dual approach was suggested, which emphasised the complementary nature of the two mentioned approaches. The aim of this study was to assess the operational capability of a dual approach in evaluating similarity scores between illicit drug profiles. Utilising a practical example, link values were generated individually from both approaches, then compared in parallel. As a result, it was possible to generate more informed hypotheses, relating to specimen linkage, due to the greater wealth of information available from the two approaches working concurrently. Additionally, it was shown that applying only one approach led to less information being generated during analysis as well as potentially important links between illicit drug specimens being missed.

Bayesian approach in estimating flood waste generation: A case study in South Korea

Accurate estimations of flood waste generation are a crucial issue in disaster waste management. Multilinear regression of related parameters has been recognized as a promising technique for flood waste estimation. There are two types of flood waste estimation methods: pre-event predictions using factors related to regional properties and rainfall hazards, and post-event predictions using damage variables due to floods, such as the number of damaged buildings. Previous attempts to establish these models used deterministic approaches; however, probabilistic methods have never been applied. Considering the large degrees of uncertainty in waste generation from floods, a probabilistic approach can provide a more accurate model compared to models developed by the conventional deterministic approach. This study applied Bayesian inference to develop a flood waste regression model in South Korea. The aims of the study are as follows: (1) to analyze the characteristics of coefficients estimated by the Bayesian approach; (2) evaluate the performance of the prediction model by Bayesian inference; and (3) assess the effectiveness of Bayesian updating in a flood waste estimation. According to the results, the coefficients obtained via Bayesian inference showed a more significant p-value compared to those developed through the deterministic approach. Bayesian inference with a null prior distribution was effective in error reduction, specifically for post-event prediction. Bayesian updating did not effectively increase the accuracy of the model, while iterative updating required a complex calculation process. These results reveal the potential of the Bayesian approach in flood waste estimations, which can be transferred to other countries.

Industrial metal pollution in water and probabilistic assessment of human health risk

Concentration of eight heavy metals in surface and groundwater around Dhaka Export Processing Zone (DEPZ) industrial area were investigated, and the health risk posed to local children and adult residents via ingestion and dermal contact was evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Metal concentrations (except Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn) in Bangshi River water were above the drinking water quality guidelines, while in groundwater were less than the recommended limits. Concentration of metals in surface water decreased as a function of distance. Estimations of non-carcinogenic health risk for surface water revealed that mean hazard index (HI) values of As, Cr, Cu, and Pb for combined pathways (i.e., ingestion and dermal contact) were >1.0 for both age groups. The estimated risk mainly came from the ingestion pathway. However, the HI values for all the examined metals in groundwater were <1.0, indicating no possible human health hazard. Deterministically estimated total cancer risk (TCR) via Bangshi River water exceeded the acceptable limit of 1 × 10^-4 for adult and children. Although, probabilistically estimated 95th percentile values of TCR exceeded the benchmark, mean TCR values were less than 1 × 10^-4. Simulated results showed that 20.13% and 5.43% values of TCR for surface water were >1 × 10^-4 for adult and children, respectively. Deterministic and probabilistic estimations of cancer risk through exposure to groundwater were well below the safety limit. Overall, the population exposed to Bangshi River water remained at carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health threat and the risk was higher for adults. Sensitivity analysis identified exposure duration (ED) and ingestion rate (IR) of water as the most relevant variables affecting the probabilistic risk estimation model outcome.