Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs

Forecasting research in the humanitarian context is scarce. In this literature review, our goal is not only to show why forecasting research is important for the humanitarian sector, but also to identify what has been done so far, and where are the needs for further research. We conducted a structured literature search in Scopus, Web of Science, ABI Inform, and Google Scholar resulted in only 38 papers published between 1990 and 2018. Based on our findings we highlight three case studies as exemplary research in forecasting within the humanitarian context and list seven future research streams with specific research needs identified in each stream.

Measuring the impact of donations at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) amid the COVID-19 pandemic

The governments' isolation measures to contain the transmission of COVID-19 imposed a dilemma for the people at the bottom of the pyramid. Since these people have very unreliable sources of income, a dilemma arises: they must either work under risky conditions or refrain from work and suffer from income cuts. Emergency donations of food and cleaning supplies in a pandemic context might be overlooked by government and civil society actors. This paper aims to model the effects of donations on mitigating the negative effects of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities. Applying the system dynamics method, we simulated the behaviour of the pandemic in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) communities and the impacts that donations of food and cleaning supplies have in these settings. We administered surveys to the beneficiaries and local organisations responsible for the final distribution of donations to gather information from the field operations. The results show that increasing access to cleaning supplies in communities through donations can significantly reduce coronavirus transmission, particularly in high-density and low-resource areas, such as slums in urban settings. In addition, we also show that food donations can increase the vulnerable population's ability to afford necessities, alleviating the stress caused by the pandemic on this portion of the population. Therefore, this work helps decision-makers (such as government and non-governmental organisations) understand the impacts of donations on controlling outbreaks, especially under COVID-19 conditions, in a low-resource environment and, thus, aid these hard-to-reach populations in a pandemic setting.

Social media effectiveness as a humanitarian response to mitigate influenza epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic

Influenza and COVID-19 are infectious diseases with significant burdens. Information and awareness on preventative techniques can be spread through the use of social media, which has become an increasingly utilized tool in recent years. This study developed a dynamic transmission model to investigate the impact of social media, particularly tweets via the social networking platform, Twitter on the number of influenza and COVID-19 cases of infection and deaths. We modified the traditional Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR-V) model with an additional social media component, in order to increase the accuracy of transmission dynamics and gain insight on whether social media is a beneficial behavioral intervention for these infectious diseases. The analysis found that social media has a positive effect in mitigating the spread of contagious disease in terms of peak time, peak magnitude, total infected, and total death; and the results also showed that social media's effect has a non-linear relationship with the reproduction number R 0 and it will be amplified when a vaccine is available. The findings indicate that social media is an integral part in the humanitarian logistics of pandemic and emergency preparedness, and contributes to the literature by informing best practices in the response to similar disasters.

Intellectual structure and trends in the humanitarian operations field

Humanitarian Operations (HO) have attracted the interest of professionals and academics, mainly due to their potential to reduce human suffering in disaster situations, leading to consolidation as a research field. With the evolution of the HO research field, synthesis of the knowledge and previous discoveries has become an important task for its advancement. In this study, a literature review based on bibliometric mapping techniques was carried out in order to identify the HO intellectual structure. As main results, we visually present the general emerging structure of the HO field using the VOS viewer software to devise the networks of the principal articles. The seminal research in this field is organized into two clusters: Humanitarian Supply Chain Management, and Distribution Optimization in Humanitarian Logistics. Regarding the emerging intellectual structure, three clusters were identified: Relationship Management and Big Data, Healthcare facility location, and Network flow restoration optimization. Finally, some gaps and questions for future research are presented.

Data on knowledge management and natural disaster preparedness: A field survey in East Lombok, Indonesia

Knowledge management is a vital part of disaster preparedness in reducing the disaster impacts. This article presents data based on a field survey of 200 people in East Lombok, Indonesia. The data taken from the survey is presented to examine how the community utilized the knowledge created and transferred during the preparedness phase into actions during the response phase. This article's data can be served as a starting point to examine knowledge management topics in humanitarian operations literature further and to reveal more novel insights from the survey results. This data-in-brief article accompanies the paper “Knowledge management and natural disaster preparedness: A systematic literature review and a case study of East Lombok, Indonesia” by Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti, A. Arviansyah, N. Nurmala, and Sigit S. Wibowo.

An integrated socially responsible-efficient approach toward health service network design

Despite the fact that medical responses are crucial for saving precious lives during any humanitarian crisis (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic), healthcare infrastructure in many communities are partially covered or are not covered yet. In order to strengthen the health system response to such crisis, especially in low- to middle-income communities, this paper extends a novel multi-objective model for designing a health service network under uncertainty which simultaneously considers efficiency, social responsibility, and network cost. For efficiency, a modified data envelopment analysis model is introduced and inserted into the proposed model to decrease the inefficiency of healthcare facilities belonging to the different tiers of the health system. For social responsibility, two measures of job creation and balanced development are incorporated into the extended model. This is not only considered to cope with the increased numbers of patients and disaster victims to healthcare facilities but also to deal with the challenge of the economy and the livelihoods of people during the crisis. Moreover, a novel mixed possibilistic-flexible robust programming (MPFRP) approach is developed to protect the considered network against uncertainty. To show the applicability of the extended model, a real-world case study is presented. The results reveal that contrary to fuzzy programming models, the MPFRP performs well in terms of social responsibility (72%), cost (8%), and efficiency (28%) and is able to make a trade-off between these three measures. In this study, the resilience level of the designed network is not addressed while disregarding any short-term stoppage owing to internal or external sources of disruption in designing may bring about a considerable loss.

Quality management in humanitarian operations and disaster relief management: a review and future research directions

Quality management has been widely discussed in the literature, and recent special issues on humanitarian supply chains and relief operations have emphasized the increasing importance of quality management in this key emerging area. In this paper, we provide an extensive literature review in the field of quality management in humanitarian operations and disaster relief management. Our comprehensive review, comprising 61 articles published from 2009 to 2018, leads to the identification of enablers (e.g., transparency, policy framework), challenges (e.g., financial services, identity protection), and theory development approaches, as well as numerous research gaps that must be addressed.