Predictors of total mortality and their differential association on premature or late mortality in the SUN cohort

Several studies have tried to analyse the association between all-cause mortality and different risk factors, (especially those which are modifiable, such as smoking, diet or exercise), to develop public health preventive strategies. However, a specific analysis of predictors of premature and late mortality is needed to give more precise recommendations. Considering that there are risk factors which exert an influence on some diseases and not on others, we expect that, similarly, they may have a different impact depending on the timing of mortality, separating premature (≤65 years) from late mortality (>65 years). Thus, we prospectively followed-up during a median of 12 years a cohort of 20,272 university graduates comprising an ample range of ages at inception. Time-dependent, covariate-adjusted Cox models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and their 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for each predictor. The strongest independent predictor of mortality at any age was physical activity which was associated with reduced risk of total, premature and late mortality (range of HRs when comparing the highest vs. the lowest level: 0.24 to 0.48). Specific strong predictors for premature mortality were smoking, HR: 4.22 (95 % CI: 2.42-7.38), and the concurrence of ≥2 metabolic conditions at baseline, HR: 1.97 (1.10-3.51). The habit of sleeping a long nap (≥30 min/d), with HR: 2.53 (1.30-4.91), and poor adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (≤3 points in a 0 to 8 score vs. ≥6 points), with HR: 2.27 (1.08-4.76), were the strongest specific predictors for late mortality. Smoking, diet quality or lifestyles, probably should be differentially assessed as specific predictors for early and late mortality. In the era of precision medicine, this approach will allow tailored recommendations appropriate to each person's age and baseline condition.

Clinical frailty, and not features of acute infection, is associated with late mortality in COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with excess mortality after hospital discharge. Identification of patients at increased risk of death following hospital discharge is needed to guide clinical monitoring and early intervention. Herein, we aimed to identify predictors of early vs. late mortality in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

A total of 471 patients with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 were followed up for 9 months [median (inter-quartile range) of follow-up time: 271 (14) days] after hospital admission. COVID-19-related signs and symptoms, laboratory features, co-morbidities, Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (4C) mortality and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) scores were analysed by logistic regression for association with early (28 day) vs. late mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the discriminative value of 4C and CFS scores for early vs. late mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 120 patients died within 28 days from hospital admission. Of the remaining 351 patients, 41 died within the next 8 months. Respiratory failure, systemic inflammation, and renal impairment were associated with early mortality, while active cancer and dementia were associated with late mortality, after adjustment for age and sex. 4C mortality score and CFS were associated with both early [odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval-CI): 4C: 1.34 (1.25-1.45); CFS: 1.49 (1.33-1.66)] and late [OR (95% CI): 4C: 1.23 (1.12-1.36); CFS: 2.04 (1.62-2.56)] mortality. After adjustment for CFS, the association between 4C and late mortality was lost. By ROC analysis, 4C mortality score was superior to CFS for 28 day mortality [area under the curve (AUC) (95% CI): 0.779 (0.732-0.825) vs. 0.723 (0.673-0.773), respectively; P = 0.039]. In contrast, CFS had higher predictive value for late mortality compared with 4C mortality score [AUC (95% CI): 0.830 (0.776-0.883) vs. 0.724 (0.650-0.798), respectively; P = 0.007].

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort, late mortality in COVID-19 patients is more strongly associated with premorbid clinical frailty than with severity of the acute infection phase.

Reduction in Late Mortality Among Patients With Multiple Myeloma Treated With Autologous Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation-A Blood or Marrow Transplant Survivor Study Report

Therapeutic practices for multiple myeloma (MM) have evolved, such that novel-agent-based therapy and autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation (aPBSCT) is the current standard. Whether cause-specific mortality has changed with time remains unclear. We examined late cause-specific mortality among patients with MM receiving aPBSCT from 1989 to 2014. We conducted a prospective cohort study using participants enrolled in the enrolled in the Blood or Marrow Transplant Survivor Study. We created 3 eras to reflect changing MM therapy: <2000 (pre-thalidomide); 2000-2005 (thalidomide); 2006-2014 (lenalidomide). We used Kaplan-Meier techniques and Cox regression for examining all-cause mortality, and subdistribution hazards models for cause-specific mortality. In total, 1906 patients were followed up for a median of 9.2 years. Conditional on surviving 2 years, the 10-year overall survival was 45%. The 10-year cumulative incidence of myeloma- and non-myeloma-related mortality was 33% and 13%, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed declining MM-specific mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]_2000-2005 = 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-1.07; SHR_2006-2014 = 0.46, 95% CI, 0.34-0.62; referent group: <2000), infection-related mortality (SHR_2000-2005 = 0.50, 95% CI, 0.29-0.85; SHR_2006-2014 = 0.35, 95%CI 0.21-0.60; referent group: <2000) and cardiovascular disease-related mortality (SHR_2000-2005 = 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-0.99; SHR_2006-2014 = 0.41, 95% CI 0.18-0.93; referent group: <2000). Although primary disease remains the major cause of late mortality, we observed a significant temporal decline in myeloma-, infection-, and cardiac-related late mortality over the past 25 years.

Mortality at 5 Years Among Very Elderly Patients Undergoing High Sensitivity Troponin T Testing for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndromes

BACKGROUND

Patients aged ≥80 years old often present to Emergency Departments (ED) with symptoms potentially due to an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This study aimed to evaluate associations between baseline level(s) of high sensitivity troponin T (HsTnT), adjudicated diagnoses and outcomes.

METHODS

Consecutive patients aged ≥80 years were studied, who presented to the ED at Liverpool Hospital, NSW, Australia during the 4 months period March to June 2014 (inclusive) with symptoms suggestive of an ACS, and who had at least one HsTnT assay performed. Diagnoses were based on the fourth universal definition of MI (myocardial infarction) including type-1 MI, type-2 MI, acute myocardial injury, chronic myocardial injury; the rest were termed "other diagnoses". Patients were categorised by baseline HsTnT levels 1) ≤14 ng/L, 2) 15-29 ng/L, 3) 30-49 ng/L and 4) ≥50 ng/L.

RESULTS

Of 2,773 patients screened, 545 were aged ≥80 years (median age 85 [IQR 82-88]); median follow-up was 32 months (IQR 5-56). The respective rates of adjudicated diagnoses were type-I MI 3.1%, type-2 MI 13%, acute myocardial injury 9.5%, chronic myocardial injury 56% and 18.6% had other diagnoses. Mortality rates increased, irrespective of adjudicated diagnoses with increasing HsTnT levels (ng/L): 17% (16/96) for ≤14; 35% (67/194) for 15-29; 51% (65/127) for 30-49; and 64% (82/128) for ≥50 ng/L; log rank p≤0.001. On multi-variable analyses, after adjusting for potential confounding factors including age, hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), MI type was not associated with late mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients aged ≥80 years higher HsTnT levels, irrespective of adjudicated diagnoses, were associated with increased mortality. Most very elderly patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of an ACS undergoing HsTnT testing in EDs had elevated levels most commonly due to chronic myocardial injury. Whether any interventions can modify outcomes require prospective evaluation.

Late mortality and causes of death among long-term survivors after autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

By evaluating risks of late mortality and causes of death among long-term survivors after autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in Japan, we clarified what we should focus on during follow-up to reduce them. The study cohort included 6,780 patients who had survived for ≥2 years after the first autologous HSCT performed from 1974 to 2012 for hematological diseases. With a median follow-up of 6.0 years among survivors, overall survival probabilities at 5 and 10 years after HSCT were 92% and 83%, respectively. Eight hundred thirty deaths occurred: 451, recurrent primary diseases; 87, subsequent solid cancers; 57, subsequent hematological malignancies; 55, infections; 41, respiratory diseases; 19, cardiovascular diseases; 15, liver diseases; 10, neurological diseases; and 7, kidney/genitourinary diseases (Except small numbers of other causes and missing). According to the log-rank test, the risk of overall mortality was remarkably increased among HSCT recipients compared with the that in the general Japanese population (observed/expected ratio [O/E]=5.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.0-5.8). The risks of cause-specific mortality increased with infection (O/E=6.8; 95% CI, 5.1-8.8), subsequent solid cancers (O/E=1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7), subsequent hematological malignancies (O/E=14.3; 95% CI, 10.8-18.5), kidney/genitourinary diseases (O/E=3.4; 95% CI, 1.4-7.1), respiratory disease (O/E=9.0; 95% CI, 6.5-1.2), and liver diseases (O/E=2.6; 95% CI, 1.4-4.2). Long-term survivors after autologous HSCT are at an increased risk of death due to secondary cancers, infections, and any organ diseases as well as recurrence compared to the general population. When monitoring these patients in the outpatient clinic, it is important for physicians to predict a change in the patient's condition and to start treatment earlier.

Seventeen-Year Mortality following the Acute Coronary Syndrome: Gender-Specific Baseline Variables and Impact on Outcome

BACKGROUND

Gender differences in outcome and its predictors in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) continue to be debated.

OBJECTIVES

To assess long-term mortality and explore its association with the baseline variables in women and men.

METHODS

We followed 2,176 consecutive patients (665 women and 1,511 men) with ACS admitted to a single hospital and still alive after 30 days for a median of 16 years 8 months.

RESULTS

At the end of the follow-up, 415 (62.4%) women and 849 (56.2%) men had died (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] for women/men 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.33, p =0.005). After adjustment for age, the HR was reversed to 0.88 (95% CI, 0.78-1.00, p =0.04). Additional adjustment for potential confounders yielded a HR of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.76-0.98, p = 0.02). Using multivariable Cox regression, previous heart failure, previous or new-onset atrial fibrillation, and psychotropic drugs at discharge were significantly associated with increased long-term mortality in men only. Known hypertension, elevated creatinine, and inhospital Killip class >1/cardiogenic shock were significantly associated with mortality only in women. For late mortality, hypertension and inhospital Killip class >1/cardiogenic shock interacted significantly with gender.

CONCLUSION

For patients with ACS surviving the first 30 days, late mortality was lower in women than in men after adjusting for age. The effects of several baseline characteristics on late outcome differed between women and men. Gender-specific strategies for long-term follow-up of ACS patients should be considered.

Late Mortality after Allogeneic Bone Marrow Transplantation in Childhood for Bone Marrow Failure Syndromes and Severe Aplastic Anemia

Children with bone marrow failure syndromes and severe aplastic anemia (SAA) are treated with allogeneic blood or marrow transplantation (BMT). However, there is a paucity of studies examining late mortality risk after allogeneic BMT performed in childhood for bone marrow failure syndromes and SAA and evaluating how this risk differs between these diseases. We investigated cause-specific late mortality in 2-year survivors of allogeneic BMT for bone marrow failure syndromes and SAA performed before age 22years between 1974 and 2010 at 2 US transplantation centers. Vital status information was collected from medical records, the National Death Index, and Accurint databases. Overall survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier techniques. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated using age- sex-, and calendar-specific mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Among the 2-year survivors of bone marrow failure syndromes (n = 120) and SAA (n = 147), there were 15 and 19 deaths, respectively, yielding an overall survival of 86.4% for bone marrow failure syndromes and 93.1% for SAA at 15years post-BMT. Compared with the general population, patients with bone marrow failure syndromes were at a higher risk for premature death (SMR, 22.7; 95% CI, 13.1 to 36.2) compared with those with SAA (SMR, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.8 to 7.0) (P < .0001). The elevated relative risk persisted at ≥15years after BMT for both diseases. The hazard of all-cause late mortality was 2.9-fold (95% CI, 1.1 to 7.3) higher in patients with bone marrow failure syndromes compared with those with SAA. The high late mortality risk in recipients of allogeneic BMT in childhood for bone marrow failure syndromes calls for intensified life-long follow-up.

Late Mortality after Allogeneic Blood or Marrow Transplantation for Inborn Errors of Metabolism: A Report from the Blood or Marrow Transplant Survivor Study-2 (BMTSS-2)

Allogeneic blood or marrow transplantation (BMT) is currently considered the standard of care for patients with specific inborn errors of metabolism (IEM). However, there is a paucity of studies describing long-term survival and cause-specific late mortality after BMT in these patients with individual types of IEM. We studied 273 patients who had survived ≥2 years after allogeneic BMT for IEM performed between 1974 and 2014. The most prevalent IEM in our cohort were X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD; 37.3%), Hurler syndrome (35.1%), and metachromatic leukodystrophy (MLD; 10.2%). Conditional on surviving ≥2 years after BMT, the overall survival for the entire cohort was 85.5 ± 2.4% at 10 years and 73.5 ± 3.7% at 20 years. The cohort had a 29-fold increased risk of late death compared with an age- and sex-matched cohort from the general US population (95% CI, 22- to 38-fold). The increased relative mortality was highest in the 2- to 5-year period after BMT (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 207; 95% confidence interval [CI], 130 to 308) and declined with increasing time from BMT, but remained elevated for ≥21 years after BMT (SMR, 9; 95% CI, 4 to 18). Sequelae from the progression of primary disease were the most common causes of late mortality in this cohort (76%). The use of T cell-depleted grafts in patients with ALD and Hurler syndrome was a risk factor for late mortality. Younger age at BMT and use of busulfan and cyclosporine were protective in patients with Hurler syndrome. Our findings demonstrate relatively favorable overall survival in ≥2-year survivors of allogeneic BMT for IEM, although primary disease progression continues to be responsible for the majority of late deaths.

Late mortality after cardiac interventions over 10-year period in two Cameroonian government-owned hospitals

Background

Cardiac surgery is a growing activity in Sub-Saharan Africa, however, data related to long-term mortality are scarce. We aimed to analyze outcome data of cardiac interventions in two hospitals in Cameroon over 10 years' period.

Methods

we conducted a retrospective analytical and descriptive study at the Douala General Hospital and Yaoundé General Hospital. All patients operated between January 2007 and December 2017, or their families were contacted by phone between January and April 2018 for a free of charges medical examination.

Results

Of a total of 98 patients operated during the study period, 8 (8.2%) were lost to follow-up. Finally, 90 patients [49 (54.4%) women and 41 (45.6%)] men were included. The mean age was 49±22 years (range, 13-89 years). The surgical indications were valvular heart diseases in 37 (41.1%) cases, congenital heart diseases in 11 (12.2%) cases, chronic constrictive pericarditis in 4 (4.4%) cases, and intra cardiac tumor in 1 (1.1%) case. Valve replacement was the most common type of surgery carried out in 37 (41.1%) cases-mostly with mechanical prosthesis. Pacemaker-mostly dual-chambers were implanted in 36 (40.0%) patients. The median follow-up was 26 months. The overall late mortality was 5.7%, and the overall survival rates at 5 and 10 years were 95.5% and 94.4% respectively. The overall survival rates at 5 and 10 years for mechanical valve prosthesis were 93.3% and 90% respectively. The survival at 10 years was 100% for patients with bioprosthesis. The survival rates at 10 years were 94.1% and 100% respectively for dual and single chamber pacemaker.

Conclusions

Long-term outcome of cardiac surgery in hospitals in Cameroon are acceptable with low mortality rate. However, outcome metrics beyond mortality should be implemented for a prospective data collection.

Protracted immune disorders at one year after ICU discharge in patients with septic shock

Background

Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality and critical illness worldwide and is associated with an increased mortality rate in the months following hospital discharge. The occurrence of persistent or new organ dysfunction(s) after septic shock raises questions about the mechanisms involved in the post-sepsis status. The present study aimed to explore the immune profiles of patients one year after being discharged from the intensive care unit (ICU) following treatment for abdominal septic shock.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, single-center, observational study in the surgical ICU of a university hospital. Eighty-six consecutive patients admitted for septic shock of abdominal origin were included in this study. Fifteen different plasma biomarkers were measured at ICU admission, at ICU discharge and at one year after ICU discharge. Three different clusters of biomarkers were distinguished according to their functions, namely: (1) inflammatory response, (2) cell damage and apoptosis, (3) immunosuppression and resolution of inflammation. The primary objective was to characterize variations in the immune status of septic shock patients admitted to ICU up to one year after ICU discharge. The secondary objective was to evaluate the relationship between these biomarker variations and patient outcomes.

Results

At the onset of septic shock, we observed a cohesive pro-inflammatory profile and low levels of inflammation resolution markers. At ICU discharge, the immune status demonstrated decreased but persistent inflammation and increased immunosuppression, with elevated programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) levels, and a counterbalanced resolution process, with elevated levels of interleukin-10 (IL-10), resolvin D5 (RvD5), and IL-7. One year after hospital discharge, homeostasis was not completely restored with several markers of inflammation remaining elevated. Remarkably, IL-7 was persistently elevated, with levels comparable to those observed after ICU discharge, and PD-1, while lower, remained in the elevated abnormal range.

Conclusions

In this study, protracted immune disturbances were observed one year after ICU discharge. The study results suggested the presence of long-lasting immune illness disorders following a long-term septic insult, indicating the need for long-term patient follow up after ICU discharge and questioning the use of immune intervention to restore immune homeostasis after abdominal septic shock.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1934-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Addressing the causes of late mortality in infants with congenital diaphragmatic hernia

INTRODUCTION

Despite improvements of neonatal intensive care, mortality among patients born with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH), remains high, and there is a significant late mortality in this cohort.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the causes of death among 251 consecutive CDH patients treated at our institution during the last 26years period.

METHODS

Retrospective review of all causes of death between 1990 and 2015 of the CDH cohort prospectively collected in a database.

RESULTS

Of the 251 CDH patients treated in our department since 1990, 49 were not alive by the end of 2015. Thirty-six patients (14%) died before discharge, and 13 (5%) after the first care event. The mean age at death was 262days (±653days, median 34days). Eighty six % (42 cases) of the fatalities occurred during the first year of life, more than half of the patients died before 1month of age and only 13% after the age of 1year (7 patients) (late mortality). The causes of early mortality (before 1year of age) were mainly cardio-respiratory, whereas GI complications occurred in the late mortality group.

CONCLUSION

The most common cause of death among CDH patients is respiratory insufficiency and associated pulmonary hypertension, and most of the fatalities occur before 1year of age. Among older patients, gastrointestinal morbidity as cause of death is highly represented.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

II.

A clinical and ethical review on late results and benefits after EVAR

Introduction

The aim of this review is to assess if late mortality after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is a real problem, and whether it could be an issue in the case of medical litigation.

Material and methods

A review of all English language literature was performed on PubMed web-site, looking for all papers reporting EVAR long-term mortality rate. EVAR performances were reviewed also from an ethical and medico-legal point of view, based on current Italian laws.

Results

Mono-centric studies, and international registers suggest that today EVAR offers similar (if not better) results than open repair (OR) in the treatment of AAAs with standard and complex anatomies, even if performed outside the devices-specific instructions for use. In contrast, large randomized trials, and consequently current guidelines, suggest that EVAR still has an ancillary role compared to OR, only to be used for highly selected patients.

Recently, specific litigation cases on surgical options related to the treatment of aortic aneurysms has developed. The informed consent process needs to include not only mortality and major complications related to the procedure but also the chance of patients' outcomes. For those reasons, the generic nature of informed consent has been criticized.

Conclusions

No conclusive data is currently available to assess the initial question of late mortality after EVAR but results are still improving. In the meantime, widespread use of EVAR as first choice for treating AAA may only be acceptable in high-volume centres validating their results by a strict follow up protocol.

•

The long-term results after endovascular repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are still considered one of the main limitations of this treatment option.

•

This paper is a comprehensive review of the current literature on long-term mortality after EVAR procedures.

•

An analysis on informed consent for EVAR from a non-surgical point of view is reported for the very first time.

Late Mortality and Causes of Death among Long-Term Survivors after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation

We sought to assess the late mortality risks and causes of death among long-term survivors of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). The cases of 11,047 relapse-free survivors of a first HCT at least 2 years after HCT were analyzed. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated and specific causes of death were compared with those of the Japanese population. Among relapse-free survivors at 2 years, overall survival percentages at 10 and 15 years were 87% and 83%, respectively. The overall risk of mortality was significantly higher compared with that of the general population. The risk of mortality was significantly higher from infection (SMR = 57.0), new hematologic malignancies (SMR = 2.2), other new malignancies (SMR = 3.0), respiratory causes (SMR = 109.3), gastrointestinal causes (SMR = 3.8), liver dysfunction (SMR = 6.1), genitourinary dysfunction (SMR = 17.6), and external or accidental causes (SMR = 2.3). The overall annual mortality rate showed a steep decrease from 2 to 5 years after HCT; however, the decrease rate slowed after 10 years but was still higher than that of the general population at 20 years after HCT. SMRs in the earlier period of 2 to 4 years after HCT and 5 years or longer after HCT were 16.1 and 7.4, respectively. Long-term survivors after allogeneic HCT are at higher risk of mortality from various causes other than the underlying disease that led to HCT. Screening and preventive measures should be given a central role in reducing the morbidity and mortality of HCT recipients on long-term follow-up.

[Epidemiological profile of late mortality in severe polytraumatisms]

OBJECTIVE

A study is made of the epidemiology, chronogramand causes of late mortality in traumatized patients.

DESIGN

A prospective, observational cohort study of adult trauma patients was carried out.

SETTINGS

Province of Guipúzcoa (Basque Country, Spain). Intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital.

PATIENTS

Patients with severe trauma (Injury Severity Score > 15), admitted to the ICU from January 1995 to December 2009, with late death (> 7 days).

VARIABLES

Epidemiological, laboratory test, hemodynamic and transfusional data were collected. Severity scores: Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and ISS.

RESULTS

Patients: 2003; ISS: 24.3±14.2. Total deaths: 405 (20%). Late mortality (>7 days): 102 (25.2%) patients, 9 years older and with a lower (18 points) ISS score than the patients who died early (48 hours). Most frequent injuries: AIS-Head-Cervical spine ≥ 4 (52%); AIS-Abdomen ≥ 4 (19.6%); AIS-Chest ≥ 4 (11.7%); AIS-Extremities ≥ 4 (4.9%). Causes of death: 1) brain death (14.7%); 2) multiorgan failure (67.6%), in two injury contexts: a) severe brain trauma in the vegetative state and high spinal cord injuries with tetraplegia (35.3%); and b) non-neurological injuries (32.3%) with a high prevalence of hypovolemic shock, multiple transfusion and coagulopathy; 3) miscellaneous (10.7%): post-resuscitation anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, pulmonary embolism and massive stroke; 4) non-evaluable (7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Age, severity and type of injuries have an influence upon the time distribution and causality of late mortality. Brain death remains predominant, with multiorgan failure as the most frequent cause. This knowledge should contribute to the identification of problems, and to better organization of the structural and educational resources, thereby reducing the likely factors leading to death from trauma.