A change of direction for family policy in Italy: some reflections on the general family allowance (GFA)

We present and discuss the General Family Allowance (GFA), in Italian: Assegno Unico Universale, a measure that the Italian Government and Parliament have put in place from March 2022 addressing the persistent low fertility in Italy. The GFA modernizes monetary transfers in favor of families with children in Italy, covering large groups of families that were previously excluded from full benefits. Even if the aim of the GFA is to support fertility rather than to alleviate child poverty, it is likely that this measure will help to reduce poverty, especially for families with children previously excluded from significant cash contributions, such as recently resident foreigners and the unemployed. In addition, as GFA amounts are modest for wealthier couples, its potential effect on fertility-if there will be any-should be limited to couples with modest incomes. The GFA is also compared with the different systems of monetary transfers in favor of families with children of developed countries.

Responses of rhizosphere bacterial communities in newly reclaimed mudflat paddies to rice genotype and nitrogen fertilizer rate

The rhizosphere microbiome plays a vital role in crop growth and adaptation. However, the effects of rice genotype, nitrogen (N) fertilization, and their interactions on the rhizosphere bacterial communities in low fertility soil remain poorly understood. In this study, a two-factor field experiment was performed in newly reclaimed mudflat paddies characterized by poor fertility to analyze bacterial communities in the rhizosphere of Yongyou 2640 (japonica/indica hybrid rice, JIH) and Huaidao No.5 (japonica conventional rice, JC) under different N fertilizer rates. Results showed that genotype, followed by N fertilizer rate, was the primary factor affecting rhizobacteria diversity. Rhizobacteria diversity was higher in JIH than in JC and that of JIH and JC did not significantly change overall as N fertilizer rates but increased and decreased at N fertilizer rates of over 300 kg N ha^-1, respectively. The inconsistent response was probably attributed to the difference in the increase of ammonium and/or nitrate in the rhizosphere of JIH and JC. Genotype explained approximately 26% of the variation in rhizosphere bacterial communities. Rhizosphere bacterial communities with N fertilizer rates of over 300 kg N ha^-1 were more dissimilar to those without N fertilization relative to those with N fertilizer rates of below 300 kg N ha^-1, which was mainly attributed to changes in the concentration of ammonium and/or nitrate. The relative abundances of some potential beneficial genera such as Salinimicrobium, Salegentibacter, Gillisia, and Anaerolinea in the rhizosphere of JC and Salegentibacter, Lysobacter, Nocardioides, and Pontibacter in the rhizosphere of JIH were increased under N fertilizer rates of less than 300 kg N ha^-1 and positively correlated with rice yields, which indicate that changes in bacterial communities caused by N fertilization might be strongly associated with the improvement of rice yield. Overall, rhizosphere bacterial communities were more sensitive to genotype in newly reclaimed mudflat paddies and showed a consistent response to N fertilizer rates.

Later, Fewer, None? Recent Trends in Cohort Fertility in South Korea

South Korea and other developed regions in East Asia have become forerunners of prolonged lowest-low fertility. South Korea's total fertility rate has been below 1.3 for two decades, the longest duration among OECD countries. Using vital statistics and census data, I study recent trends in the country's cohort fertility covering women born before the 1960s to those born in the 1980s. Analyzing outcomes at both the intensive margin of fertility (i.e., timing and number of children) and the extensive margin of family formation (i.e., marriage and childlessness), I document three novel patterns. First, the driver of low fertility has evolved across birth cohorts, from married women having later and fewer childbirths, to fewer women getting married, and finally to fewer women having children even if married. Second, a decomposition analysis of marriage and fertility changes indicates that the marriage and fertility decline was driven by changes within educational groups rather than by changes in women's educational composition. Third, the relationship between women's educational attainment and marriage or fertility was negative for the 1960s cohort, but an inverted U-shaped education gradient emerged beginning with the 1970s cohort.

The Positive Effect of Women's Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women's fertility. This study presents new evidence of the causal effect of women's education on fertility from China, where fertility has remained below the replacement level since the early 1990s. To account for endogeneity, the study exploits the timing and varying intensity of China's higher education expansion as exogenous sources of increase in women's education. Using data from China General Social Survey (2010-2012), findings show that each year of women's education induced by the higher education expansion increases the number of children ever born by 10%. According to the average marginal effects, each additional year of women's education increases the number of children ever born by 0.14, decreases the probability of having no children by 3 percentage points, and increases the probability of having two or more children by 4 percentage points. Two mechanisms drive the positive effect of education: first, education does not cause an increase in the mean age at first marriage; second, among ever-married women, education increases their demand for children. Findings from this study have important implications for China and other low-fertility developing countries.

After 20 years of low fertility, where are the obstetrician-gynecologists?

Korea has entered a stage of low fertility, with a total fertility rate of 1.178 in 2002 and 0.92 in 2019. The low birth rate has led to the closure of obstetric hospitals and clinics from 1,371 maternity health facilities in 2003 to 541 in 2019, which is 39.5% compared to 2003. Since 2011, the Ministry of Health and Welfare has been operating an “Obstetrically Underserved Areas Support Project,” however, a shortage of obstetrician-gynecologists (OB/GYNs) who can participate in labor and delivery is a major problem. In 2019, there were 5,800 OB/GYNs practicing. Of these, 4,225 (72.8%) were working in obstetrics-gynecology hospitals, each responsible for 2,855 fertile women. Their average age was 51.8 years. A total of 2,659 (45.9%) worked in clinics and 3,110 (73.6%) were working in metropolitan districts. Only 124 OB/GYNs (2.9%) worked in vulnerable rural areas. OB/GYNs working in obstetric hospitals were responsible for 113.8 newborns in 2019. Their average age was 50.1 years. Of them, 67.4% were working in hospitals, 74.1% in urban areas, and only 60 specialists (2.3%) were working in rural areas. To establish a safe childbirth environment during an era of low fertility, it is important to have obstetricians in charge of childbirth. The government should establish a comprehensive long-term plan to resolve the shortage of OB/GYNs.

Fertility Drain or Fertility Gain? Emigration and Fertility During the Great Recession in Italy

How does emigration affect fertility in the country of origin? We address this question by estimating counterfactual fertility during the Great Recession in order to understand what the effect of the recession on fertility would be in the absence of emigration. Between 2009 and 2014, Southern European countries suffered from harsh economic instability, which triggered a sharp drop in fertility and a spike in emigration. We focus on Italy, exploiting the richness of the Italian Administrative Registry of Italians Residing Abroad (AIRE), which records information about all Italian citizens moving their residence abroad, as well as Italian birth records. Using an instrumental variable approach, which helps overcome endogeneity issues in the fertility-migration relationship, we find a positive impact of emigration on the total fertility rate at the Italian province level. This result suggests that emigrants are selected among those individuals who have a lower risk of having children. Therefore, in the absence of emigration, counterfactual fertility would have been lower than it actually is. Such a positive effect of out-migration on fertility in the area of origin could thereby lead to an underestimation of the effect of the recession on fertility.

Costly children: the motivations for parental investment in children in a low fertility context

While the literature has documented a general increase in parental investment in children, both in terms of financial and time investment, the motives for this increase remain unclear. This paper aims at shedding light on these motives by examining parents' own narratives of their parenting experiences from the vantage point of three theoretical perspectives. In doing so, the paper brings side-by-side the goal of providing children with human and social capital to improve their future labour market prospects, the pressures on parents to conform to new societal standards of good and intensive parenting, and the experience of parenting as part of self-development. The data come from a qualitative study of middle-income parents in Canada and the USA. The results provide some support for each of these perspectives, while also revealing how they jointly help explain parents' large investment in their children as well as the tensions and contradictions that come with it.

Low fertility may be a significant determinant of ovarian cancer worldwide: an ecological analysis of cross- sectional data from 182 countries

BACKGROUND

Ageing, socioeconomic level, obesity, fertility, relaxed natural selection and urbanization have been postulated as the risk factors of ovarian cancer (OC56). We sought to identify which factor plays the most significant role in predicting OC56 incidence rate worldwide.

METHODS

Bivariate correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationships between country-specific estimates of ageing (measured by life expectancy), GDP PPP (Purchasing power parity), obesity prevalence, fertility (indexed by the crude birth rate), opportunity for natural selection (Ibs) and urbanization. Partial correlation was used to compare contribution of different variables. Fisher A-to-Z was used to compare the correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression (Enter and Stepwise) was conducted to identify significant determinants of OC56 incidence. ANOVA with post hoc Bonferroni analysis was performed to compare differences between the means of OC56 incidence rate and residuals of OC56 standardised on fertility and GDP respectively between the six WHO regions.

RESULTS

Bivariate analyses revealed that OC56 was significantly and strongly correlated to ageing, GDP, obesity, low fertility, Ibs and urbanization. However, partial correlation analysis identified that fertility and ageing were the only variables that had a significant correlation to OC56 incidence when the other five variables were kept statistically constant. Fisher A-to-Z revealed that OC56 had a significantly stronger correlation to low fertility than to ageing. Stepwise linear regression analysis only identified fertility as the significant predictor of OC56. ANOVA showed that, between the six WHO regions, multiple mean differences of OC56 incidence were significant, but all disappeared when the contributing effect of fertility on OC56 incidence rate was removed.

CONCLUSIONS

Low fertility may be the most significant determining predictor of OC56 incidence worldwide.

Associations of gender role attitudes with fertility intentions: A Japanese population-based study on single men and women of reproductive ages

OBJECTIVES

Japan has been experiencing low fertility for many years. In this study, I investigated the relationship between gender role attitudes and fertility intentions among Japanese single men and women of reproductive ages.

STUDY DESIGN

Utilizing the Longitudinal Survey of Adults in the 21st Century data, 8944 men and 7924 women aged 20-34 years with single, childless status were analyzed. Gender role attitudes were assessed by participants' preferences for the division of labor between a man and a woman: income earning, housework, and childcare. Those who preferred men to earn income and women to perform housework and childcare were considered to have traditional attitudes, whereas those who preferred women and men to share these responsibilities were considered to have egalitarian attitudes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes were fertility intentions measured by a desire to have children and ideal number of children. Logistic regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Egalitarian attitudes about income earning and housework were associated with low fertility intentions (a lesser desire for children) compared to traditional attitudes: adjusted odds ratios were 1.56 [1.36, 1.80] for men and 1.47 [1.26, 1.72] for women with income earning. Men's preference for sharing childcare responsibility was associated with high fertility intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

Japanese society has not shifted away from the traditional division of labor despite the increase in female labor force participation. Low fertility intentions among Japanese men and women with egalitarian attitudes suggest that institutional support for balancing work and family may be necessary to improve the low fertility trend.

Children's Sex and the Happiness of Parents

Demographers are interested in sex preferences for children because they can skew sex ratios and influence population-level fertility, parenting behavior, and family outcomes. Based on parity progression ratios, in most European countries, there are no sex preferences for a first child, but a strong preference for mixed-sex children. We hypothesize that mixed-sex preferences also influence parental happiness. Parents' disappointment with a second child of the same sex as the first could have negative effects for parents and children. We use longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and the British Household Panel Study to examine parental happiness by the children's sex and analyze whether these effects differ by parent's sex, age, nativity, and educational attainment. The results are only partially consistent with predictions from parity progression ratios. As expected, parental happiness does not depend on the sex of the first child. We find weak evidence suggesting that two boys decrease happiness, but the findings are not consistent across German and British data or across subpopulations. Moreover, two girls do not reduce happiness. Although sex preferences influence fertility, they appear to have little impact on happiness, perhaps because of unobserved positive factors associated with having same-sex children.

The Parenthood Happiness Puzzle: An Introduction to Special Issue

Contrary to conventional wisdom, recent studies argue that parenthood is not necessarily related to higher parental subjective well-being (SWB). However, parenthood remains an important aspect of adults' lives, also in highly developed societies where childbearing has become optional, financially expensive and affecting other goals in life. Whereas a great deal of effort has been put into answering why fertility is low in so many developed countries, one may even ask why is it not even lower. The answer is not obvious but stems from the fact that, to date, the relationship between fertility and SWB has been understudied and the mechanisms at work are not well understood. This special issue makes a step forward in this line of research, providing a coherent set of papers addressing different dimensions of the relationship between fertility and SWB and its mechanisms, starting from a demographic perspective, but integrating theories and research results from other disciplines. The collection of papers assesses the effect of the birth of a child on the individual SWB from angles still unexplored with the idea that the effects of fertility on individuals' SWB are diverse depending on individual, couple and country contextual factors.

Old Habits Die Hard? Lingering Son Preference in an Era of Normalizing Sex Ratios at Birth in South Korea

South Korea was among the first countries to report both an abnormally high sex ratio at birth (SRB) and its subsequent normalization. We examine the role of son preference in driving fertility intentions during a period of declining SRB and consider the contribution of individual characteristics and broader social context to explaining changes in intentions. We employ data from the National Survey on Fertility, Family Health and Welfare that span 1991–2012. We find that reported son preference declined to a great extent but remained substantial by the end of the observation period, and that the intention to have a third child still differed by sex of existing children. Change in individual-level factors does not explain the decline in son preference, suggesting that broad social changes were also important. This study provides a better understanding of how son preference evolves in the post-transitional context of very low fertility.

Gender Equity, Opportunity Costs of Parenthood, and Educational Differences in Unintended First Births: Insights from Japan

We examine educational differences in the intendedness of first births in Japan using data from a nationally representative survey of married women (N = 2,373). We begin by describing plausible scenarios for a negative, null, and positive educational gradient in unintended first births. In contrast to well-established results from the U.S., we find evidence of a positive educational gradient in Japan. Net of basic demographic controls, university graduates are more likely than less-educated women to report first births as unintended. This pattern is consistent with a scenario emphasizing the high opportunity costs of motherhood in countries such as Japan where growing opportunities for women in employment and other domains of public life have not been accompanied by changes in the highly asymmetric roles of men and women within the family. We discuss potential implications of this suggestive finding for other low-fertility settings.

Education Fever and the East Asian Fertility Puzzle: A case study of low fertility in South Korea

Fertility throughout East Asia has fallen rapidly over the last five decades and is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 in every country in the region. Using South Korea as a case study, we argue that East Asia's ultra-low fertility rates can be partially explained by the steadfast parental drive to have competitive and successful children. Parents throughout the region invest large amounts of time and money to ensure that their children are able to enter prestigious universities and obtain top jobs. Accordingly, childrearing has become so expensive that the average couple cannot afford to have more than just one or two children. The trend of high parental investment in child education, also known as 'education fever', exemplifies the notion of 'quality over quantity' and is an important contributing factor to understanding low-fertility in East Asia.

Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research: La fécondité dans les sociétés avancées: un examen des recherches

This paper provides a review of fertility research in advanced societies, societies in which birth control is the default option. The central aim is to provide a comprehensive review that summarizes how contemporary research has explained ongoing and expected fertility changes across time and space (i.e., cross- and within-country heterogeneity). A secondary aim is to provide an analytical synthesis of the core determinants of fertility, grouping them within the analytical level in which they operate. Determinants are positioned at the individual and/or couple level (micro-level), social relationships and social networks (meso-level); and, by cultural and institutional settings (macro-level). The focus is both on the quantum and on the tempo of fertility, with a particular focus on the postponement of childbearing. The review incorporates both theoretical and empirical contributions, with attention placed on empirically tested research and whether results support or falsify existing theoretical expectations. Attention is also devoted to causality and endogeneity issues. The paper concludes with an outline of the current challenges and opportunities for future research.