Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of residual low back pain after tubular microdiskectomy of lumbar disk herniation

OBJECTIVE

Tubular microdiskectomy (tMD) is one of the most commonly used for treating lumbar disk herniation. However, there still patients still complain of persistent postoperative residual low back pain (rLBP) postoperatively. This study attempts to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of rLBP after tMD.

METHODS

The patients were divided into non-rLBP (LBP VAS score < 2) and rLBP (LBP VAS score ≥ 2) group. The correlation between rLBP and these factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic analysis. Then, a nomogram prediction model of rLBP was developed based on the risk factors screened by multivariate analysis. The samples in the model are randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the diskrimination, calibration and clinical value of the model, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 14.3% (47/329) of patients have persistent rLBP. The multivariate analysis suggests that higher preoperative LBP visual analog scale (VAS) score, lower facet orientation (FO), grade 2-3 facet joint degeneration (FJD) and moderate-severe multifidus fat atrophy (MFA) are risk factors for postoperative rLBP. In the training and validation sets, the ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCAs suggested the good diskrimination, predictive accuracy between the predicted probability and actual probability, and clinical value of the model, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This nomogram including preoperative LBP VAS score, FO, FJD and MFA can serve a promising prediction model, which will provide a reference for clinicians to predict the rLBP after tMD.

Risk Factors of Low Back Pain Aggravation After Tubular Microdiscectomy of Lumbar Disc Herniation

BACKGROUND

Although lumbar disc herniation (LDH) patients' sciatic symptoms such as leg pain can be improved by decompressive surgery, some patients report postoperative aggravated low back pain (LBP). However, the exact reason for this phenomenon remained unknown.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected LDH data of patients who underwent tubular microdiscectomy between December 2015 and December 2020. The patients were divided into aggravated and non-aggravated group according to whether the postoperative LBP visual analogue scale (VAS) score was higher than the preoperative score. We analyzed the relationship of the clinical and radiologic parameters with aggravated LBP.

RESULTS

Postoperative aggravated LBP cases accounted for 14.1% (57 of 404) of this series. Of the 57 patients, 88% (50 of 57) had mild postoperative LBP aggravation (1-2), and 12% (7 of 57) had severe LBP aggravation (>2). The preoperative LBP VAS score of the aggravated group was significantly lower than that of the non-aggravated group (P < 0.001), while the LBP VAS score and Oswestry Disability Index at final follow-up was significantly higher in the aggravated group (P < 0.05). Additionally, the proportion of preoperative moderate-to-severe multifidus fatty atrophy (MFA) and lumbar facet joint degeneration (LFJD) was significantly higher in the aggravated group. A multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis indicated that the preoperative LBP VAS score (P < 0.001, odds ratio 0.266, 95% CI 0.161-0.439) and MFA (P < 0.001, odds ratio 4.491, 95% CI 2.092-9.640) were the risk factors for postoperative aggravated LBP.

CONCLUSIONS

A preoperative lower LBP VAS score and moderate-to-severe MFA were associated with postoperative aggravated LBP. This will provide important guidance for patient's preoperative assessment and education.

Moderate to Severe Multifidus Fatty Atrophy is the Risk Factor for Recurrence After Microdiscectomy of Lumbar Disc Herniation

OBJECTIVE

We attempted to investigate the potential risk factors of recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) after tubular microdiscectomy.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of patients who underwent tubular microdiscectomy. The clinical and radiological factors were compared between the patients with and without rLDH.

RESULTS

This study included 350 patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH) who underwent tubular microdiscectomy. The overall recurrence rate was 5.7% (20 of 350). The visual analogue scale (VAS) score and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at the final follow-up significantly improved compared with those preoperatively. There was no significant difference in the preoperative VAS score and ODI between the rLDH and non-rLDH groups, while the leg pain VAS score and ODI of the rLDH group were significantly higher than those of the non-rLDH group at final follow-up. This suggested that rLDH patients had a worse prognosis than non-rLDH patients even after reoperation. There were no significant differences in sex, age, body mass index, diabetes, current smoking and drinking, disc height index, sagittal range of motion, facet orientation, facet tropism, Pfirrmann grade, Modic changes, interdisc kyphosis, and large LDH between the 2 groups. Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that rLDH was associated with hypertension, multilevel microdiscectomy, and moderate-severe multifidus fatty atrophy (MFA). A multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that MFA was the sole and strongest risk factor for rLDH after tubular microdiscectomy.

CONCLUSION

Moderate-severe MFA was a risk factor for rLDH after tubular microdiscectomy, which can serve as an important reference for surgeons in formulating surgical strategies and the assessment of prognosis.