Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of residual low back pain after tubular microdiskectomy of lumbar disk herniation

OBJECTIVE

Tubular microdiskectomy (tMD) is one of the most commonly used for treating lumbar disk herniation. However, there still patients still complain of persistent postoperative residual low back pain (rLBP) postoperatively. This study attempts to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of rLBP after tMD.

METHODS

The patients were divided into non-rLBP (LBP VAS score < 2) and rLBP (LBP VAS score ≥ 2) group. The correlation between rLBP and these factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic analysis. Then, a nomogram prediction model of rLBP was developed based on the risk factors screened by multivariate analysis. The samples in the model are randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the diskrimination, calibration and clinical value of the model, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 14.3% (47/329) of patients have persistent rLBP. The multivariate analysis suggests that higher preoperative LBP visual analog scale (VAS) score, lower facet orientation (FO), grade 2-3 facet joint degeneration (FJD) and moderate-severe multifidus fat atrophy (MFA) are risk factors for postoperative rLBP. In the training and validation sets, the ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCAs suggested the good diskrimination, predictive accuracy between the predicted probability and actual probability, and clinical value of the model, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This nomogram including preoperative LBP VAS score, FO, FJD and MFA can serve a promising prediction model, which will provide a reference for clinicians to predict the rLBP after tMD.

Establishment of a risk prediction model for residual low back pain in thoracolumbar osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures after percutaneous kyphoplasty

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify potential independent risk factors for residual low back pain (LBP) in patients with thoracolumbar osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) following percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) treatment. Additionally, we aim to develop a nomogram that can accurately predict the occurrence of residual LBP.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of thoracolumbar OVCFs patients who underwent PKP treatment at our hospital between July 2021 and December 2022. Residual LBP was defined as the presence of moderate or greater pain (VAS score ≥ 4) in the low back one day after surgery, and patients were divided into two groups: the LBP group and the non-LBP group. These patients were then randomly allocated to either a training or a validation set in the ratio of 7:3. To identify potential risk factors for residual LBP, we employed lasso regression for multivariate analysis, and from this, we constructed a nomogram. Subsequently, the predictive accuracy and practical clinical application of the nomogram were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a calibration curve, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Our predictive model revealed that five variables-posterior fascial oedema, intravertebral vacuum cleft, time from fracture to surgery, sarcopenia, and interspinous ligament degeneration-were correlated with the presence of residual LBP. In the training set, the area under the ROC was 0.844 (95% CI 0.772-0.917), and in the validation set, it was 0.842 (95% CI 0.744-0.940), indicating that the model demonstrated strong discriminative performance. Furthermore, the predictions closely matched actual observations in both the training and validation sets. The decision curve analysis (DCA) curve suggested that the model provides a substantial net clinical benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

We have created a novel numerical model capable of accurately predicting the potential risk factors associated with the occurrence of residual LBP following PKP in thoracolumbar OVCFs patients. This model serves as a valuable tool for guiding specific clinical decisions for patients with OVCFs.

A nomogram for predicting residual low back pain after percutaneous kyphoplasty in osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures

To establish a risk prediction model for residual low back pain after percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures. We used retrospective data for model construction and evaluated the model using internal validation and temporal external validation and finally concluded that the model had good predictive performance.

INTRODUCTION

The cause of residual low back pain in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) after PKP remains highly controversial, and our goal was to investigate the most likely cause and to develop a novel nomogram for the prediction of residual low back pain and to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.

METHODS

The clinical data of 281 patients with OVCFs who underwent PKP at our hospital from July 2019 to July 2020 were reviewed. The optimal logistic regression model was determined by lasso regression for multivariate analysis, thus constructing a nomogram. Bootstrap was used to perfomance the internal validation; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive performance and clinical utility of the model, respectively. Temporal external validation of the model was also performed using retrospective data from 126 patients who underwent PKP at our hospital from January 2021 to October 2021.

RESULTS

Lasso regression cross-validation showed that the variables with non-zero coefficients were the number of surgical vertebrae, preoperative bone mineral density (pre-BMD), smoking history, thoracolumbar fascia injury (TLFI), intraoperative facet joint injury (FJI), and postoperative incomplete cementing of the fracture line (ICFL). The above factors were included in the multivariate analysis and showed that the pre-BMD, smoking history, TLFI, FJI, and ICFL were independent risk factors for residual low back pain (P < 0.05). The ROC and calibration curve of the original model and temporal external validation indicated a good predictive power of the model. The DCA curve suggested that the model has good clinical practicability.

CONCLUSION

The risk prediction model has good predictive performance and clinical practicability, which can provide a certain basis for clinical decision-making in patients with OVCFs.

Characteristics of relief and residual low back pain after discectomy in patients with lumbar disc herniation: analysis using a detailed visual analog scale

Background

Several authors have reported favorable results in low back pain (LBP) for patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH) treated with discectomy. However, detailed changes over time in the characteristics and location of LBP before and after discectomy for LDH remain unclear. To clarify these points, we conducted an observational study to determine the detailed characteristics and location of LBP before and after discectomy for LDH, using a detailed visual analog scale (VAS) bilaterally.

Methods

We included 65 patients with LDH treated by discectomy in this study. A detailed VAS for LBP was administered with the patient under 3 different conditions: in motion, standing, and sitting. Bilateral VAS was also administered (affected versus opposite side) for LBP, lower extremity pain (LEP), and lower extremity numbness (LEN). The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was used to quantify clinical status. Changes over time in these VAS and ODI were investigated. Pfirrmann grading and Modic change as seen by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were reviewed before and 1 year after discectomy to determine disc and endplate condition.

Results

Before surgery, LBP on the affected side while the patients were in motion was significantly higher than LBP while they were sitting (p = 0.025). This increased LBP on the affected side in motion was improved significantly after discectomy (p < 0.001). By contrast, the residual LBP while sitting at 1 year after surgery was significantly higher than the LBP while they were in motion or standing (p = 0.015). At 1 year following discectomy, residual LBP while sitting was significantly greater in cases showing changes in Pfirrmann grade (p = 0.002) or Modic type (p = 0.025).

Conclusions

Improvement of LBP on the affected side while the patient is in motion suggests that radicular LBP is improved following discectomy by nerve root decompression. Furthermore, residual LBP may reflect increased load and pressure on the disc and endplate in the sitting position.