Modelling changes in vegetation productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios in southeastern Australia

Australia, characterized by extensive and heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and in efforts to mitigate climate change. Prior research has quantified vegetation productivity and carbon balance within the Australian context over preceding decades. Nonetheless, the responses of vegetation and carbon dynamics to the evolving phenomena of climate change and escalating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide remain ambiguous within the Australian landscape. Here, we used LPJ-GUESS model to assess the impacts of climate change on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Biome Productivity (NBP) of carbon for the state of New South Wales (NSW) in southeastern Australia. LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of 27 global climate models under different emission scenarios. We investigated the change of GPP for different vegetation types and whether NSW ecosystems will be a net sink or source of carbon under climate change. We found that LPJ-GUESS successfully simulated GPP for the period 2003-2021, demonstrating a comparative performance with GPP derived from upscaled eddy covariance fluxes (R2 = 0.58, nRMSE = 14.2 %). The simulated NBP showed a larger interannual variation compared with flux data and other inversion products but could capture the timing of rainfall-driven carbon sink and source variations in 2015-2020. GPP would increase by 10.3-19.5 % under a medium emission scenario and 19.7-46.8 % under a high emission scenario. The mean probability of NSW acting as a carbon sink in the future showed a small decrease with a large uncertainty with >8 of the 27 climate models indicating an increased potential for carbon sink. These findings emphasize the significance of emission scenarios in shaping future carbon dynamics but also highlight considerable uncertainties stemming from different climate projections. Our study represents a baseline for understanding natural ecosystem dynamics and their key role in governing land carbon uptake and storage in Australia.

Drivers of carbon flux in drip irrigation maize fields in northwest China

BACKGROUND

Under the escalating threat to sustainable development from the global increase in carbon dioxide concentrations, the variations in carbon flux in the farmland ecosystem and their influencing factors have attracted global attention. Over the past few decades, with the development of eddy covariance technology, the carbon fluxes of farmlands have been determined in many countries. However, studies are very limited for drip irrigation maize the arid regions in northwestern China, which covers a large area where a mixed mode of agriculture and grazing is practiced.

RESULTS

To study the effects of drip irrigation on the net ecosystem productivity (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER), gross primary production (GPP) and net biome productivity (NBP) in the arid regions of northwestern China, we measured the carbon flux annually from 2014 to 2018 using an eddy covariance system. Our results showed that the maize field carbon flux exhibited single-peak seasonal patterns during the growing seasons. During 2014-2018, the NEE, ER and GPP of the drip-irrigated maize field ranged between - 407 ~ - 729 g C m^-2, 485.46 ~ 975.46 g C m^-2, and 1068.23 ~ 1705.30 g C m^-2. In four of the 5 study years, the ER released back to the atmosphere was just over half of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis. The mean daily NEE, ER and GPP were significantly correlated with the net radiation (Rn), air temperature (Ta), leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture (SWC). The results of path analysis showed that leaf area index is the main driving force of seasonal variation of carbon flux. When harvested removals were considered, the annual NBP was - 234 g C m^-2, and the drip-irrigated maize field was a carbon source.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the variation and influencing factors of NEE, ER and GPP in the growth period of spring maize under film drip irrigation in arid areas of northwest China. The ecosystem was a carbon sink before maize harvest, but it was converted into a carbon source considering the carbon emissions after harvest. The variation of carbon flux was influenced by both environmental and vegetation factors, and its leaf area index was the main driver that affects the seasonal variation of carbon flux.

Estimating agro-ecosystem carbon balance of northern Japan, and comparing the change in carbon stock by soil inventory and net biome productivity

Soil C sequestration in croplands is deemed to be one of the most promising greenhouse gas mitigation options for agriculture. We have used crop-level yields, modeled heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and land use data to estimate spatio-temporal changes in regional scale net primary productivity (NPP), plant C inputs, and net biome productivity (NBP) in northern Japan's arable croplands and grasslands for the period of 1959-2011. We compared the changes in C stocks derived from estimated NBP and using repeated inventory datasets for each individual land use type from 2005 to 2011. For the entire study region of 2193 ha, overall annual plant C inputs to the soil constituted 37% of total region NPP. Plant C inputs in upland areas (excluding bush/fallow) could be predicted by climate variables. Overall NBP for all land use types increased from -1.26MgCha(-1)yr(-1) in 1959-0.26 Mg Cha(-1)yr(-1) in 2011. However, upland and paddy fields showed a decreased in NBP over the period of 1959-2011, under the current C input scenario. From 1988, an increase in agricultural abandonment (bush/fallow) and grassland cover caused a slow increase in the regional C pools. The comparison of carbon budgets using the NBP estimation method and the soil inventory method indicated no significant difference between the two methods. Our results showed C loss in upland crops, paddy fields and sites that underwent land use change from paddy field to upland sites. We also show C gain in grassland from 2005 to 2011. An underestimation of NBP or an overestimation of repeated C inventories cannot be excluded, but either method may be suitable for tracking absolute changes in soil C, considering the uncertainty associated with these methods.