How the EU Soil Observatory contributes to a stronger soil erosion community

New policy developments have emerged in relation to soil conservation after 2020. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023-2027, the proposal for a Soil Monitoring Law and the mission 'A Soil Deal for Europe' have shaped a new policy framework at EU level, which requires updated assessments on soil erosion and land degradation. The EU Soil Observatory (EUSO) successfully organised a scientific workshop on 'Soil erosion for the EU' in June 2022. The event has seen the participation of more than 330 people from 63 countries, addressing important topics such as (i) management practices, (ii) large scale modelling, (iii) the importance of sediments in nutrient cycle, (vi) the role of landslides and (v) laying the foundations for early career scientists. As a follow up, among the 120 abstracts submitted in the workshop, we received fifteen manuscripts, out of which nine were selected for publication in the present special issue. In this editorial, we summarize the major challenges that the soil erosion research community faces in relation to supporting the increasing role of soils in the EU Green Deal.

survey

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is considering a policy to reduce nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels. Although current evidence supports the public-health benefits of a reduced-nicotine policy, almost half of people who smoke (~ 40%) do not support the policy. This study estimates the factors most strongly associated with support or opposition toward the policy, including tobacco use status, perceived effects of a reduced nicotine policy, trust in the FDA, and psychological distress. The study aims to inform messaging campaigns and policy makers.

METHODS

Data were collected in 2021 with nationally representative samples of U.S. adults (n = 1763). After receiving information about the reduced nicotine policy, participants indicated their beliefs and support for or opposition to the policy, along with other individual difference characteristics. Univariate population parameters and multinomial logistic regression coefficients were estimated.

RESULTS

In adjusted models, people who formerly or never smoked were less likely to oppose the policy compared to those who currently smoke; people with higher psychological distress and those who believe the policy will promote switching to e-cigarettes were more likely to oppose the policy. In addition, people were more likely to support the policy if they believed it would make quitting easier or that the FDA is trustworthy.

CONCLUSIONS

Educational campaigns about reduced nicotine policy should expect higher impact by targeting prevalent perceptions and those more strongly associated with policy sentiment. In anticipation of the policy rollout, there may be a critical window to shape public opinion.

The role of collectivism, liberty, COVID fatigue, and fatalism in public support for the zero-COVID policy and relaxing restrictions in China

BACKGROUND

China was the last country in the world to relax COVID-19 restrictions. A successful public health policy requires public support. This analysis examined the factors associated with Chinese support for zero-COVID and relaxing COVID-19 restrictions in China.

METHOD

Two online surveys were conducted among Chinese participants in mainland China on June 10-13 (N = 460) and December 2, 2022 (N = 450). These two samples were similar based on the participants' demographics.

RESULTS

The results revealed that the perceived health consequences of a COVID-19 policy, perceived norms of approving a COVID-19 policy, and hope positively predicted the participants' support for the COVID-19 policy. The results further showed that collectivism and fatalism positively predicted support for zero-COVID and negatively predicted support for relaxing restrictions. COVID fatigue was negatively associated with support for zero-COVID and positively associated with support for relaxing restrictions. Liberty positively predicted support for relaxing restrictions in June and negatively predicted zero-COVID in December 2023. It did not positively or negatively predict support for the policy adopted by the government.

CONCLUSION

Collectivism, liberty, COVID fatigue, and fatalistic beliefs are important considerations connected to public support for a COVID-19 policy. The role of liberty was more nuanced and depended on the survey's time and whether the government adopted the policy.

The public's knowledge about child sexual abuse influences its perceptions of prevention and associated policies

BACKGROUND

Child sexual abuse (CSA) prevention requires efforts from all members of society.

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to examine factors associated with (1) perceptions of CSA as unpreventable and (2) support for policies to prevent CSA and to punish people who perpetrated CSA. We focused on the roles of knowledge and misperceptions about child sexual abuse.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

We collected survey data online from a large (N = 5068), nationally representative sample of adults in the United States.

RESULTS

Analyses revealed factors promoting perceptions of CSA as unpreventable. Support for or against policies that aim to prevent CSA or to punish perpetrators of CSA were associated with individual factors such as older age (B = 0.08, -0.13), Republican political affiliation (B = 0.10, 0.07), and misperceptions about CSA (B = 0.15, 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings highlight malleable factors that could be targeted to collectivize calls for CSA prevention and to promote support for effective policies to prevent CSA. In particular, ensuring accurate knowledge about CSA, and collective responsibility and government efficacy specific to CSA prevention, were identified as helping shape views of CSA as preventable.

Tobacco-control policy support among people from low socioeconomic positions in Massachusetts

People from low socioeconomic positions (SEP) are at a higher risk of smoking, face greater barriers to smoking cessation, and have lower access to health information. To improve tobacco-related health outcomes, policies requiring altering labeling on cigarette packs could be implemented. However, public support is needed to influence the policymaking process. We assessed factors associated with supporting tobacco-control communication policies. We analyzed data from Project CLEAR, a study conducted in Massachusetts. The analytic sample included participants who answered questions on their support for three policies: 1) graphic health warnings (GHWs), 2) Quitline number, and 3) smoking cessation information on cigarette packs (n = 357). Binomial logistic regression modeling was conducted by policy. Independent variables included demographic characteristics and smoking status. We found that younger vs. older individuals (aOR = 0.41, 95 %CI:0.23-0.72), males vs. females (aOR = 0.58, 95 %CI:0.35-0.96), and people who smoke vs. those who don't smoke (aOR = 0.41, 95 %CI:0.24-0.70) were less likely to support a law requiring GHWs. Participants with a low vs. higher level of education (aOR = 0.55, 95 %CI:0.32-0.95) were less likely to support a law requiring a Quitline number. Younger (18-39) vs. older individuals (aOR = 0.53, 95 %CI:0.29-0.94), males vs. females (aOR = 0.57, 95 %CI:0.34-0.96), and participants with a low vs. higher level of education (aOR = 0.56, 95 %CI:0.32-0.98) were less likely to support a law requiring cessation information on cigarette packs. Findings suggest that targeted theory-based public health and communication strategies should be developed to increase awareness and support towards policies that would help reduce cigarette smoking among people from low SEP to eliminate tobacco-related health inequities in the US.

Preferences for policy measures to regulate urban vehicle access for climate change mitigation

In cognisance of the urgent need to decarbonise the transport sector to limit its impact on climate change and to internalise other negative transport externalities, regulating vehicle access in urban areas is essential. However, urban areas often struggle to implement these regulations due to concerns relating to social acceptability, heterogeneity of citizen preferences, lack of information on preferred measure attributes, and other factors that can boost the acceptance of urban vehicle access regulations. This study explores the acceptability and willingness to support Urban Vehicle Access Regulations (UVAR) in Budapest, Hungary to reduce transportation emissions and promote sustainable urban mobility. Using a structured questionnaire, which includes a choice-based conjoint exercise, the study finds that 42% of respondents were willing to support a car-free policy measure. Results were analysed to elicit preferences for specific UVAR measure attributes, identify population subgroups, and assess factors influencing willingness to support UVAR implementation. Access fee and proportion of revenue earmarked for transport development were the most important attributes to respondents. The study also identified three distinct subgroups of respondents with differing preferences, which could be characterised based on access to passenger cars, age, and employment status. The findings suggest that for effective UVAR, access fees for non-compliant vehicles should be excluded from measure designs, and the attribute preference approach highlights the importance of considering the heterogeneity of residents' preferences in UVAR measure planning.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00745-0.

Perceptions of environmental problems and solutions in Florida across sectors: A survey of key stakeholders and the public

We build on environmental attitude research to provide a foundation for considering policies making economic and environmental trade-offs. We conducted a large online survey of Florida public attitudes (n = 829), a state grappling with trade-offs between economic development and environmental quality. Findings provide the first baseline understanding of Floridian perceptions of relationships between key economic drivers and the environment. Environmental problems were generally considered important and pro-environmental policy options are highly supported. The environment was considered more important to Florida's culture and future than key industries, with only tourism considered more important to the economy. Development was considered least important. Individual differences, including gender, political party, and industry affiliation, predicted policy support and attitudes toward trade-offs. Modeled together, attitudes toward government involvement and the importance of the environment to Florida predicted additional variance in policy support. Results highlight the intersection of social identities and ideological attitudes in shaping environmental policy attitudes.

Insights into parents' and teachers' support for policies promoting increased plant-based eating in schools

Global environmental and public health challenges related to current food systems call for large-scale shifts towards increasingly plant-based diets, especially in Western meat-centric societies. School meal systems can play a role in these changes due to their widespread prevalence and multi-sectoral impact. However, there is a lack of evidence about how adults involved in the school meals system perceive school-based pro-environmental food policies, which limits the ability to align those policies with the needs and expectations of the school community. This study aimed to address this knowledge gap by exploring parents' (n = 104) and teachers' (n = 252) support for policies to promote increased plant-based eating in public schools in a highly meat-centric EU country (Portugal). Overall, teachers seemed to be slightly more supportive of such policies and displayed more favorable (injunctive and dynamic) norms toward plant-based eating, more negative appraisals of meals with meat (i.e., perceived healthiness, naturalness, and sustainability), and lower attachment to meat consumption. Furthermore, injunctive norms in favor of plant-based meals were linked with higher support for measures promoting plant-based meals in schools, in both samples (parents, teachers). Lower meat attachment and favorable perceived meal attributes (e.g., perceptions about plant-based and fish meals) were associated with teachers' support for measures promoting plant-based meals in schools. These findings suggest that future efforts and research with parents and teachers to enable less meat-centric and more flexitarian food practices in schools should consider social and motivation variables relevant to plant-forward transitions.

Can counter-advertising exposing alcohol sponsorship and harms influence sport spectators' support for alcohol policies? An experimental study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to alcohol advertising and sponsorship through elite sport is associated with harmful use of alcohol. Owing to strong financial and cultural ties between alcohol and sport in Australia, policy action to restrict alcohol sport sponsorship is unlikely to occur without strong public support for change. This study tested whether exposure to counter-advertising exposing industry marketing of harmful products-a technique shown to be effective in tobacco control-promotes higher support for policy change and less favourable beliefs about the alcohol industry among sport spectators.

METHODS

A sample of 1,075 Australian adults aged 18-49 years who planned to watch an National Rugby League (NRL) State of Origin series game, featuring prominent alcohol sponsorship, was recruited through an online panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions: control (neutral advertisement); counter-advertisement exposing alcohol harms; counter-advertisement exposing alcohol sponsorship and harms. Participants completed a pre-test questionnaire and viewed their assigned counter-advertisement multiple times in the 5-7 days before the NRL game. Within four days of watching the game, participants completed post-test measures.

RESULTS

Compared to both the control advertisement and the counter-advertisement exposing alcohol harms, participants who viewed the counter-advertisement exposing alcohol sponsorship and harms were significantly more likely to indicate support for each of four policies aimed at restricting sports-related alcohol marketing, including the complete removal of alcohol sponsorship from sport (51% vs. 32% and 37%). They were also significantly less likely to agree with statements such as "alcohol companies should be allowed to sponsor sport since their products are legal" (39% vs. 63% and 60%) and significantly less likely to report liking alcohol companies in general (38% vs. 59% and 54%). There were no significant differences in policy support or industry beliefs between participants who saw the counter-advertisement exposing alcohol harms and those who saw the control advertisement.

CONCLUSION

Counter-advertising employing messages that expose and critique the intent and impact of pervasive alcohol sponsorship in sport has potential to bolster public support for policies targeting alcohol sport sponsorship, diminish beliefs supportive of alcohol industry marketing strategies and enhance negative views of alcohol companies and their marketing practices.

Economic openness, innovation and economic growth: Nonlinear relationships based on policy support

Whether economic openness (EO) is conducive to promoting economic growth has become a common concern of many scholars and policymakers in China. Based on the panel sample data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018, this paper adopts an empirical model to test the relationship between EO and regional economic growth. The study identifies that expanding EO increases regional economic growth. After dealing with endogeneity issues, the results remain robust. The results of the mediation effect model show that technological innovation is an important channel for EO to accelerate economic growth. With the improvement of regional economic development, the benefits of EO will increase. However, its positive effect has slowed down in regions with very high levels of economic development. The outbreak of the financial crisis has weakened the driving force of EO on economic growth, while the Belt and Road Initiative has strengthened the positive impact of EO. In addition, when introducing the threshold variable of policy support to examine the nonlinear relationship between variables, it is found that deepening the policy intensity will significantly improve economic growth due to the benefits of EO.

Climate concern and policy acceptance before and after COVID-19

It remains unclear how COVID-19 has affected public engagement with the climate crisis. According to the finite-pool-of-worry hypothesis, concern about climate change should have decreased after the pandemic, in turn reducing climate-policy acceptance. Here we test these and several other conjectures by using survey data from 1172 Spanish participants who responded before and after the first wave of COVID-19, allowing for both aggregate and within-person analyses. We find that on average climate concern has decreased, while acceptance of most climate policies has increased. At the individual-level, adverse health experiences are unrelated to these changes. The same holds for negative economic experiences, with the exception that unemployment is associated with reduced acceptance of some policies. Complementary to the finite-pool-of-worry test, we examine three additional pandemic-related issues. As we find, (1) higher climate concern and policy acceptance are associated with a belief that climate change contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak; (2) higher policy acceptance is associated with a positive opinion about how the government addressed the COVID-19 crisis; (3) citizens show favorable attitudes to a carbon tax with revenues used to compensate COVID-19-related expenditures. Overall, we conclude there is support for addressing the global climate crisis even during a global health crisis.

Social norms explain prioritization of climate policy

Most people in the United States recognize the reality of climate change and are concerned about its consequences, yet climate change is a low priority relative to other policy issues. Recognizing that belief in climate change does not necessarily translate to prioritizing climate policy, we examine psychological factors that may boost or inhibit prioritization. We hypothesized that perceived social norms from people's own political party influence their climate policy prioritization beyond their personal belief in climate change. In Study 1, a large, diverse sample of Democratic and Republican participants (N = 887) reported their prioritization of climate policy relative to other issues. Participants' perceptions of their political ingroup's social norms about climate policy prioritization were the strongest predictor of personal climate policy prioritization-stronger even than participants' belief in climate change, political orientation, environmental identity, and environmental values. Perceptions of political outgroup norms did not predict prioritization. In Study 2 (N = 217), we experimentally manipulated Democratic and Republican descriptive norms of climate policy prioritization. Participants' prioritization of climate policy was highest when both the political ingroup and the outgroup prioritized climate policy. Ingroup norms had a strong influence on personal policy prioritization whereas outgroup norms did not. These findings demonstrate that, beyond personal beliefs and other individual differences, ingroup social norms shape the public's prioritization of climate change as a policy issue.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03396-x.

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.

An Empirical Analysis of Japan's Drug Development Lag Behind the United States

The "Drug lag" (i.e., the approval lag for new drugs) hinders patients' access to innovative, new medicines. The drug lag had been heavily debated in Japan from the late 2000s to the early 2010s. It consists of "development lag" (i.e., the submission date lag for new drug applications) and "review lag" (i.e., the difference in review periods). As the two lags have different causes and display significantly different recent trends in Japan, we focus on the development lag-in contrast with most previous literature-between Japan and the United States, based on a database we created for all new drugs from 2008 to 2018 using publicly available data sources. First, we found that Japan's development lag relative to the United States did not shrink in terms of the overall distribution rather than the median, which was the focus of most prior studies. Second, we examined the factors (product characteristics) that significantly affected the development lag and found that products that underwent multi-regional clinical trials and those that were certified as "breakthrough therapies" in the United States had significantly shorter development lags with high robustness, whereas products receiving price premiums did not. Finally, we discussed the policy implications of these results. For instance, innovative new drugs that are presumed to receive price premiums require enhanced policy support for early application from the initial stages of clinical trials. It is also essential to promote information-sharing regarding evaluations by foreign reviewing authorities for efficient utilization in the home country. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Incentivizing household recycling crowds out public support for other waste management policies: A long-term quasi-experimental study

Waste management is a prototypical issue that requires multiple policy measures to function together. Yet, the compatibility between waste management policies is vastly understudied. In this paper, we used a longitudinal quasi-experimental methodology to identify the effect of an incentivized household recycling program in Anji, China on public support for other waste management policies. The program was evaluated six and fifteen months after it was implemented, respectively. We found that, despite its positive influence on residents' self-reported recycling behavior, the program reduced support for policy measures concerning waste prevention and harmless disposal. Consistent with the theoretical propositions, such crowding-out was driven by the decrease in personal commitment to pro-environmental goals, perceived issue importance of environmental sustainability, and perceived importance of individual contribution to environmental goods. Further evidence suggests that the crowding-out effect attenuated but did not disappear in the long run. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the holistic relationships between waste management policies, indicating that incentive-based recycling policies can interact negatively with other waste policies by reducing public support for them.

Experience or attribution? Exploring the relationship between personal experience, political affiliation, and subjective attributions with mitigation behavioural intentions and COVID-19 recovery policy support

Scholars argue that personal experience with climate change related impacts can increase public engagement, with mixed empirical evidence. Previous studies have almost exclusively focussed on individuals' experience with extreme weather events, even as scientific research on health impacts of climate change is burgeoning. This article extends previous research in the domain of public perceptions about climate-related public health impacts. Results from a nationally representative sample survey in New Zealand indicates that subjective attribution of infectious disease outbreaks to climate change and to human impact on the environment is positively associated with mitigation behavioural intentions and climate-focussed COVID-19 economic recovery policies. In contrast, knowledge about COVID-19 and self-reported economic impact due to COVID-19 is not associated with policy support. Moreover, significant interaction between political affiliation and subjective attribution to climate change on policy support indicate that learning about the links between health and climate change will particularly help increase mitigation engagement among right-leaning individuals. Subjective attribution may be the key to help translate personal experience to personal engagement.

"It's a war! It's a battle! It's a fight!": Do militaristic metaphors increase people's threat perceptions and support for COVID-19 policies?

At the beginning of the COVID‐19 pandemic, governments around the world employed militaristic metaphors to draw attention to the dangers of the virus. But, do militaristic metaphors truly affect individuals' perceived threat of the COVID‐19 virus and increase their support for corresponding restrictive policies? This study assessed the effects of fictitious newspaper articles that described COVID‐19 policies using similarly negatively valenced metaphors but with differing militaristic connotations (e.g., “war” vs. “struggle”). Overall, data from three framing experiments (N = 1114) in Germany and the United States indicate limited evidence on the effectiveness of the tested militaristic metaphors. In the U.S. context, the non‐militaristic concept of struggle was consistently more strongly associated with the desired outcomes than militaristic metaphors were. In Studies 2 and 3, we also tested whether reporting using a narrative or straightforward facts had additional influence on the framing effect. A congruency effect of the use of a narrative and of warfare metaphors was found in the German sample, but not in that of the United States. Results of post‐experimental norming studies (N = 437) in both countries revealed that the metaphor of war is associated with people ascribing greater responsibility to their governments, whereas the concept of struggle triggers a sense of individual responsibility. These results are discussed in terms of the usefulness and appropriateness of militaristic metaphors in the context of a pandemic.

Prevalence and correlates of US adult public opinion on restricting junk food advertising to children on social media: 2020 health information national trends survey

OBJECTIVE

To describe US adults' levels of support, neutrality and opposition to restricting junk food advertising to children on social media and explore associations with socio-demographic and health-related characteristics.

DESIGN

In 2020-2021, we used cross-sectional data from the National Cancer Institute's 2020 Health Information National Trends Survey to estimate the prevalence of opinions towards advertising restrictions and correlates of neutrality and opposition using weighted multivariable logistic regression.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 18+ years.

RESULTS

Among the analytic sample (n 2852), 54 % of adults were neutral or opposed to junk food advertising restrictions on social media. The odds of being neutral or opposed were higher among Non-Hispanic Black adults (v. non-Hispanic White; OR: 2·03 (95 % CI 1·26, 3·26)); those completing some college (OR: 1·68 (95 % CI 1·20, 2·34)) or high school or less (OR: 2·62 (95 % CI 1·74, 3·96)) (v. those with a college degree); those who were overweight (v. normal weight; OR: 1·42 (95 % CI: 1·05, 1·93)) and those reporting a moderate (OR: 1·45 (95 % CI 1·13, 1·88)) or conservative (OR: 1·71 (95 % CI 1·24, 2·35)) political viewpoint (v. liberal). Having strong (v. weaker) weight and diet-related cancer beliefs was associated with 53 % lower odds of being neutral or opposed to advertising restrictions (OR: 0·47 (95 % CI 0·36, 0·61)).

CONCLUSIONS

The current study identified subgroups of US adults for whom targeted communication strategies may increase support for policies to improve children's food environment.

Soil erosion modelling: A global review and statistical analysis

To gain a better understanding of the global application of soil erosion prediction models, we comprehensively reviewed relevant peer-reviewed research literature on soil-erosion modelling published between 1994 and 2017. We aimed to identify (i) the processes and models most frequently addressed in the literature, (ii) the regions within which models are primarily applied, (iii) the regions which remain unaddressed and why, and (iv) how frequently studies are conducted to validate/evaluate model outcomes relative to measured data. To perform this task, we combined the collective knowledge of 67 soil-erosion scientists from 25 countries. The resulting database, named 'Global Applications of Soil Erosion Modelling Tracker (GASEMT)', includes 3030 individual modelling records from 126 countries, encompassing all continents (except Antarctica). Out of the 8471 articles identified as potentially relevant, we reviewed 1697 appropriate articles and systematically evaluated and transferred 42 relevant attributes into the database. This GASEMT database provides comprehensive insights into the state-of-the-art of soil- erosion models and model applications worldwide. This database intends to support the upcoming country-based United Nations global soil-erosion assessment in addition to helping to inform soil erosion research priorities by building a foundation for future targeted, in-depth analyses. GASEMT is an open-source database available to the entire user-community to develop research, rectify errors, and make future expansions.

Five-year changes in support for tobacco control policy options among students, faculty and staff at a public university

Over 2500 U.S. colleges and universities have instituted smoke-free (prohibiting combustible tobacco) or tobacco-free (prohibiting all tobacco) campus policies, and support for such policies by students, faculty and staff is an essential ingredient for successful implementation. Cross-sectional studies have found that these policies are well supported, but longitudinal studies that track change in support over time are rare. The present study reports on two campus-wide web-based surveys conducted five years apart, 2013 and 2018, at a public university campus for which a smoke-free policy was in effect. The 2013 samples included 5691 students (26% response rate) and 2051 faculty and staff (43% response rate); the 2018 samples included 4883 students (21% response rate) and 1882 faculty/staff (37% response rate). Question wordings and procedures were largely consistent across the two surveys. Changes in support among students and faculty/staff for both a smoke-free and a tobacco-free campus were measured, including separate analyses for past-month tobacco users and non-users. Chi-square tests revealed that support for both policy options by all respondent groups (student tobacco users and non-users; faculty/staff tobacco users and non-users) increased significantly and substantially, with the exception of student non-users' support of a smoke-free campus, which was already high in 2013 (83.7% support) and remained relatively unchanged. Increases in support for the tobacco-free option were particularly large. Results are discussed in light of theories of social norm change. These findings provide evidence from one university that tobacco control policies, especially those making a campus fully tobacco-free, increase in popularity over time.

Disease modeling for public health: added value, challenges, and institutional constraints

Public health policymakers face increasingly complex questions and decisions and need to deal with an increasing quantity of data and information. For policy advisors to make use of scientific evidence and to assess available intervention options effectively and therefore indirectly for those deciding on and implementing public health policies, mathematical modeling has proven to be a useful tool. In some areas, the use of mathematical modeling for public health policy support has become standard practice at various levels of decision-making. To make use of this tool effectively within public health organizations, it is necessary to provide good infrastructure and ensure close collaboration between modelers and policymakers. Based on experience from a national public health institute, we discuss the strategic requirements for good modeling practice for public health. For modeling to be of maximal value for a public health institute, the organization and budgeting of mathematical modeling should be transparent, and a long-term strategy for how to position and develop mathematical modeling should be in place.

Australians' support for alcohol price-based policies

BACKGROUND

Price-based policies are effective alcohol harm minimisation policy options. This paper examines public support for price-based policies based on patterns of consumption and expenditure, to determine if the extent to which an individual may be affected by a policy influences their support.

METHODS

The current study included 1,684 Australian residents (59.8% male, M_age 43.8 [SD=16.7]). Respondents who purchased and consumed alcohol in the past six months were asked about their support for potential changes in a series of price-based policies.

RESULTS

Increasing price was less likely to be supported than either implementing a minimum price or a tax-increase earmarked to pay for alcohol harms. Increasing price and taxing drinkers were more likely to be supported by older people and women. We found no relationship between income or perceived impact of price increases on purchasing and level of support.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to the idea that public support might be partly influenced by ability to pay for alcohol, support for a minimum unit price was not related to price paid per drink or income, only amount consumed. Thus, heavier drinkers may be inherently unlikely to support price-based policies even when these policies would have little impact on their actual purchasing.

A model of farmers intentions towards organic farming: A case study on rice farming in Thailand

Determining the factors that influence intentions towards organic farming (IOF) is a challenge. This research applied the theory of planned behaviour to determine factors which influence farmers'. There are six causal factors: attitudes towards farming behaviour, group-norm influences on farming behaviour, perceived behavioural control of farmers, comparative usefulness of behaviours, perceived of risk of farming and support of government policy. The purpose of this article is to explore the influential factors for conserving and cumulating organic farming behaviours, which are compared between organic and conventional rice farmers. The result provides government agencies an outline of how to increase organic farming, especially for smallholder farmers, and the long-term benefits will decrease poisonous contamination and increase human health.

Public trust and knowledge in the context of emerging climate-adaptive forestry policies

Effective governance of public forests depends, in part, on public support for changes in forest management, particularly those responding to changes in socio-ecological conditions driven by climate change. Trust in managing authorities and knowledge about forest management have proven influential in shaping public support for policy across different forest managemen contexts. However, little is known about the relationship between public trust and knowledge as it relates to policy support for emerging management strategies for climate adaptation in forests. We use the example of genomics-based assisted migration (within and outside of natural range) in British Columbia's (BC) forests to examine the relative roles of and interactions between trust in different forestry actors and knowledge of forestry in shaping public support for this new and potentially controversial management alternative. Our results, based on an online survey (n = 1953 BC residents), reveal low public trust in governments and the forest industry combined with low levels of public knowledge about forest management. We find that individuals who are more trusting of decision-makers and other important forestry actors hold higher levels of support for assisted migration. Higher levels of forestry knowledge are linked with support for assisted migration within native range, whereas no knowledge effect is observed for assisted migration outside of native range. We discuss the implications of these observations and provide recommendations to more fully engage with the challenges of low levels of trust and knowledge in this context.

Soil erosion modelling: The new challenges as the result of policy developments in Europe

New challenges and policy developments after 2015 (among others, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)) are opportunities for soil scientists and soil erosion modellers to respond with more accurate assessments and solutions as to how to reduce soil erosion and furthermore, how to reach Zero Net Land Degradation targets by 2030. This special issue includes papers concerning the use of fallout for estimating soil erosion, new wind erosion modelling techniques, the importance of extreme events (forest fires, intense rainfall) in accelerating soil erosion, management practices to reduce soil erosion in vineyards, the impact of wildfires in erosion, updated methods for estimating soil erodibility, comparisons between sediment distribution models, the application of the WaTEM/SEDEM model in Europe, a review of the G2 model and a proposal for a land degradation modelling approach. New data produced from field surveys such as LUCAS topsoil and the increasing availability of remote sensing data may facilitate the work of erosion modellers. Finally, better integration with other soil related disciplines (soil carbon, biodiversity, compaction and contamination) and Earth Systems modelling is the way forward for a new generation of erosion process models.

Food waste accounting methodologies: Challenges, opportunities, and further advancements

About one third of the food produced globally is wasted along the food chain, representing a burden for the environment and an inefficiency of the food system. Tackling food waste is a priority on the global political agenda to guarantee food security. Defining a methodology for food waste quantification is key to monitoring progress towards the achievement of reduction targets. This paper summarises the outcomes of a workshop on food waste accounting co-organised by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and Directorate-General on Health and Food Safety with the aim of stimulating harmonisation of methodologies, identifying challenges, opportunities, and further advancement for food waste accounting. The paper presents methodological aspects, e.g. system boundaries, reliability of data, accounting of water flows, to ensure better support to food waste policy design and interventions. It addresses all the actors of the food supply chain, governments, and research institutions.

Support for evidence-based alcohol policy in Ireland: results from the Community Action on Alcohol Pilot Project

In Ireland, the Public Health (Alcohol) Bill proposes introducing minimum unit pricing, health labelling, and advertising restrictions to tackle excessive consumption. The aim of this research was to examine the level of support for evidence-based alcohol control policy among the Irish population. We conducted a household survey using quota sampling in three pilot sites in Southern Ireland. Consumption, attitude, and behaviour questions were taken from previously validated instruments. In total, 1075 individuals completed the questionnaire. Hazardous alcohol consumption was reported by 51.1% of the population, 31.5% of women, and 69.8% of men. The majority of individuals (> 50%) supported alcohol policy measures. These individuals are more likely to be low-risk drinkers, older individuals, and report alcohol-related issues in their local area. In the context of Ireland's Public Health (Alcohol) Bill, this research signals support for evidence-based strategies including minimum unit pricing and a reduction and separation of alcohol sales outlets.

Are young Canadians supportive of proposed nutrition policies and regulations? An overview of policy support and the impact of socio-demographic factors on public opinion

OBJECTIVES

Many countries, including Canada, are considering nutrition policies that seek to improve dietary behaviour and related health outcomes. The current study examined support for policy measures among youth and young adults in Canada.

METHODS

Participants aged 16-30 years were recruited for online surveys using in-person intercept sampling in five Canadian cities as part of the Canada Food Study conducted in October-December, 2016 (n = 2729). Items included support for 21 specific policies in seven key areas: menu labelling, food package symbols and warnings, school policies, taxation and subsidies, zoning restrictions, marketing bans, and food formulation. Linear regression models examined support by age, sex, city, race/ethnicity, parental status, body mass index (BMI), and health literacy.

RESULTS

Very high levels of support were observed for menu labelling in restaurants and schools, as well as food package symbols and warnings. Taxation, zoning restrictions (e.g., fast food and convenience stores near schools), and bans on marketing to children received relatively lower levels of support. In general, policy support increased with age for all 21 policies (p < 0.01) and greater health literacy for 4 policies (p < 0.05). Males were less supportive than females for 5 policies (p < 0.01). There were significant differences in support for specific race/ethnicity groups for 4 policies (p < 0.05). Support for menu labelling policies increased with BMI (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Overall, youth and young adults in Canada reported high levels of support for menu labelling, food package symbols/warnings, and school policies. Levels of support were generally consistent across socio-demographic subgroups, with some exceptions.

Public support for pictorial warnings on cigarette packs: an experimental study of US smokers

BACKGROUND

Understanding factors that influence public support for "nudging" policies, like pictorial cigarette pack warnings, may offer insight about how to increase such support. We sought to examine factors that influence smokers' support for requiring pictorial warnings on cigarette packs.

METHODS

In 2014 and 2015, we randomly assigned 2149 adult US smokers to receive either pictorial warnings or text-only warnings on their cigarette packs for 4 weeks. The outcome examined in the current study was support for a policy requiring pictorial warnings on cigarette packs in the US.

RESULTS

Support for pictorial warnings was high at baseline (mean: 3.2 out of 4). Exposure to pictorial warnings increased policy support at week 4 (β = .05, p = .03). This effect was explained by increases in perceived message effectiveness (p < .001) and reported conversations about policy support (p < .001). Message reactance (i.e., an oppositional reaction to the warning) partially diminished the impact of pictorial warnings on policy support (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Exposing people to a new policy through implementation could increase public support for that policy by increasing perceived effectiveness and by prompting conversations about the policy. Reactance may partially weaken the effect of policy exposure on public support.

A sequential model to link contextual risk, perception and public support for flood adaptation policy

The economic damage from coastal flooding has dramatically increased over the past several decades, owing to rapid development in shoreline areas and possible effects of climate change. To respond to these trends, it is imperative for policy makers to understand individuals' support for flood adaptation policy. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data on flood risk, this study investigates coastal residents' support for two adaptation policy measures: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs on emergency planning and evacuation. Specifically, this study explores the interactive relationships among contextual flood risks, perceived flood risks and policy support for flood adaptation, with the effects of social-demographic variables being controlled. Age, gender, race and partisanship are found to significantly affect individuals' policy support for both adaptation measures. The contextual flooding risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge associated with the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, are shown to impact one's perceptions of risk, which in turn influence one's support for both policy measures. The key finding -risk perception mediates the impact of contextual risk conditions on public support for flood management policies - highlights the need to ensure that the public is well informed by the latest scientific, engineering and economic knowledge. To achieve this, more information on current and future flood risks and options available for mitigation as well as risk communication tools are needed.

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

TIME Impact - a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact's user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it informed the first South African HIV and TB Investment Cases and successfully leveraged additional resources from the National Treasury at a time of austerity. In Ghana, a long-term TIME model-centred interaction with the NTP provided new insights into the local epidemiology and guided resource allocation decisions to improve impact.

Eco-efficiency assessment of options for metal recovery from incineration residues: a conceptual framework

Residues from municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration in Switzerland have been a hot topic in recent years, both in the research and practice communities. Regarded by many as an economically and environmentally sound solution to this issue, technological retrofitting of existing grate incinerators has the dual purpose of enhancing the metal recovery of bottom and fly ashes and improving the inertization of residues to be landfilled. How does context influence the economic and environmental performance of this particular technological option? Under which conditions would this technological option be implemented nationwide in the future? What are stakeholders' views on sustainable transitions of MSW incineration? We propose a three-stage methodological procedure to address these questions.