A modified Ranson score to predict disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and pancreatic infection in patients with acute pancreatitis

Background

Although there are several scoring systems currently used to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis, each of them has limitations. Determine the accuracy of a modified Ranson score in predicting disease severity and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

AP patients admitted or transferred to our institution were allocated to a modeling group (n = 304) or a validation group (n = 192). A modified Ranson score was determined by excluding the fluid sequestration parameter and including the modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI). The diagnostic performance of the modified Ranson score was compared with the Ranson score, modified CTSI, and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in predicting disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection.

Results

The modified Ranson score had significantly better accuracy that the Ranson score in predicting all four outcome measures in the modeling group and in the validation group (all p < 0.05). For the modeling group the modified Ranson score had the best accuracy for predicting disease severity and organ failure, and second-best accuracy for predicting pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection. For the verification group, it had the best accuracy for predicting organ failure, second-best accuracy for predicting disease severity and pancreatic necrosis, and third-best accuracy for predicting pancreatic infection.

Conclusion

The modified Ranson score provided better accuracy than the Ranson score in predicting disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection. Relative to the other scoring systems, the modified Ranson system was superior in predicting organ failure.

Accuracy of emergency physician bedside ultrasonography compared with private teleradiologist for acute appendicitis diagnosis

BACKGROUND

Acute appendicitis (AA) is a common cause of abdominal pain resulting in admission to the emergency room. Imaging methods such as ultrasonography and CT are usually used for diagnosing acute appendicitis. Reports regarding CT scans conducted during night shifts are prepared by private teleradiologists.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound performed by an emergency medicine specialist and private teleradiologists in the diagnosis of AA.

METHODS

This study was conducted prospectively and in a single center in the emergency department of a tertiary hospital. Patients who were admitted to the study between 15.09.2020 and 15.09.2021 and were diagnosed with AA who met the study criteria were included. A total of 134 patients diagnosed with AA, who met the inclusion criteria, out of 158 operated patients were included in the study.

RESULTS

In the study, 77 were male and 57 were female. The mean age of patients with histopathologically positive AA was 31 and 31.5 in negative patients. The sensitivity and specificity of POCUS performed by the emergency physician and private teleradiology for the diagnosis of AA were 78.4% and 59.3% and 58.8% and 53.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

POCUS performed by an emergency medicine specialist showed a higher sensitivity for the diagnosis of AA compared with private teleradiology. Hence, POCUS is more successful in diagnosing AA than private teleradiology. In conclusion, we recommend the concurrent use of AS and POCUS in emergency departments rather than private teleradiology for the diagnosis of AA.

Revisiting the Ranson score in acute pancreatitis: Is the drop in hematocrit a worrisome sign?

BACKGROUND

The Ranson score has 11 parameters that are complex and laborious to implement. In this study, we aimed to create a revised Ranson score by modifying the parameters in Ranson.

METHODS

A total of 938 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) between 2014 and 2021 were included in the study. The parameters of the Ranson score were included in the univariate and multivariate analyses. According to the results, some of these parameters were modified, and then the revised Ranson score was created.

RESULTS

The revised Ranson system was created with nine parameters by modifying the hematocrit parameter at 48 hours and excluding the aspartate aminotransferase parameter from the scoring system. For in-hospital mortality, the area under the curve value of the revised Ranson was 0.959 (95% CI: 0.931-0.986), and it was significantly higher compared to the three scoring systems evaluated. At a cut-off value of 3.5, the revised Ranson had a sensitivity and specificity of 91.7% and 89.1%, respectively, for mortality.

CONCLUSION

The revised Ranson scoring system had better predictive ability for all clinical outcomes compared to the original Ranson in our large sample of 938 patients. However, the revised version should be further validated by prospective and multicenter studies.

Predictive value of the C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis

Aim

To investigate the predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) to serum albumin (ALB) ratio in the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP), and compare the predictive value of the CRP/ALB ratio with the Ranson score, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI) score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score.

Methods

This cohort study retrospectively analyzed clinical data of AP patients from August 2018 to August 2020 in our hospital. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the effects of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score on severe AP (SAP), pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and death. The predictive values of CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score were examined with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. DeLong test was used to compare the AUCs between CRP/ALB ratio, Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP score.

Results

Totally, 284 patients were included in this study, of which 35 AP patients (12.32%) developed SAP, 29 (10.21%) organ failure, 30 (10.56%) pancreatic necrosis and 11 (3.87%) died. The result revealed that CRP/ALB ratio on day 2 was associated with SAP [odds ratio (OR): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32 to 2.29], death (OR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.24 to 2.41), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.28, 95%CI: 1.08 to 1.50), and organ failure (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.18 to 1.73) in AP patients. Similarly, CRP/ALB on day 3 was related to a higher risk of SAP (OR: 1.50, 95%CI: 1.24 to 1.81), death (OR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.34 to 2.65), pancreatic necrosis (OR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.42), and organ failure (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.04 to 1.41). The predictive value of CRP/ALB ratio for pancreatic necrosis was lower than that of MCTSI, for organ failure was lower than that of Ranson and BISAP, and for death was higher than that of MCTSI.

Conclusion

The CRP/ALB ratio may be a novel but promising, easily measurable, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score that can be used to predict SAP, death, pancreatic necrosis, and organ failure in AP patients, which can be a supplement of Ranson, MCTSI, and BISAP scores.

Comparison of the Efficacy of Balthazar Score and C-Reactive Protein-Albumin Ratio for Determination of Acute Pancreatitis Severity

Acute pancreatitis (AP) clinic has a wide spectrum ranging from asymptomatic cases to mortality. Early diagnosis and prediction are of great importance to prevent mortality in AP patients. Many prognostic scoring systems have been developed for AP to date. At the time of the initial assessment of attendance to the emergency department (ED), it is impractical to use existing prognostic scoring systems for patients with a diagnosis of AP in most patients. The prognostic performances of radiological and clinical scoring systems of 329 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were compared in terms of C-reactive protein-albumin ratio (CAR) levels, mortality and severity according to Balthazar score. It was observed that the CAR value increased as the AP severity increased. For mortality estimation, the ROC curve was used for sensitivity, specificity, and cut-off values for each scoring system for CAR. When mild pancreatitis and severe pancreatitis were compared according to Balthazar score, the differences between CAR were statistically significant and positive correlations were present. The CAR value has been shown to be a useful clinical tool that can be used with its high predictive value. CAR has the advantages of being easily accessible, inexpensive, and having moderately high diagnostic power to predict AP severity.

Role of Extrapancreatic Necrosis Volume in Assessing the Severity and Predicting the Outcomes of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Objective

To observe the relationship between the extrapancreatic necrosis volume and outcomes in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 125 patients with SAP admitted to Severe Acute Pancreatitis Treatment Center of Guizhou Province from August 2013 to August 2018. All patients had extrapancreatic necrosis. The general clinical data of patients, C-reactive protein (CRP) value within 72 hours of onset, Ranson score, organ failure within 3 days after onset, complications, outcomes, CT severity index (CTSI), extrapancreatic necrosis volume and other information were collected. The correlation between extrapancreatic necrosis volume and hospitalization time, ICU stay, hospitalization cost, and CRP value was analyzed. The incidence of complications was obtained from the electronic medical record system.

Results

The mean extrapancreatic necrosis volume was 680 ± 473 mL. The median length of hospital stay was 18.2 (3–76) days, and the ICU stay was 13.5 (3–66) days. The extrapancreatic necrosis volume was positively correlated with hospitalization time, ICU stay time, cost of hospitalization and CRP (P < 0.05). The extrapancreatic necrosis volume in organ failure group was significantly higher than that in non-organ failure group (P < 0.05). The extrapancreatic necrosis volume in patients with death was also higher than that in survival (P < 0.05). With the increase of extrapancreatic necrosis volume, the incidence of complications increased significantly. On the basis of extrapancreatic necrosis volume, the ROC curves yielded an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.83, 0.99) in predicting the mortality, which was higher than Ranson score (0.90, 95% CI 0.82–0.96) and CTSI (0.85, 0 95% CI 0.77–0.91).

Conclusion

With the increase of extrapancreatic necrosis volume, the incidence of complications increased significantly. The extrapancreatic necrosis volume has the potential to be used as a valuable tool to predict the poor outcome of acute pancreatitis.

Ranson score to stratify severity in Acute Pancreatitis remains valid - Old is gold

Introduction: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common gastrointestinal disease with a wide spectrum of severity and morbidity. Developed in 1974, the Ranson score was the first scoring system to prognosticate AP. Over the past decades, while the Ranson score remains widely used, it was identified to have certain limitations, such as having low predictive power. It has also been criticized for its 48-hour requirement for computation of the final score, which has been argued to potentially delay management. With advancements in our understanding of AP, is the Ranson score still relevant as an effective prognostication system for AP?Areas covered: This review summarizes the available evidence comparing Ranson score with other conventional and novel scoring systems, in terms of prognostic accuracy, benefits, limitations and clinical applicability. It also evaluates the effectiveness of Ranson score with regard to the Revised Atlanta Classification.Expert opinion: The Ranson score consistently exhibits comparable prognostic accuracy to other newer scoring systems, and the 48-hour timeframe for computing the full Ranson score is an inherent strength, not a weakness. These aspects, coupled with relative ease of use, practicality and universality of the score, advocate for the continued relevance of the Ranson score in modern clinical practice.

Correlation between neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and Ranson score in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is characterized by inflammation of the pancreas, elevated pancreatic enzymes, and abdominal pain. The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is used as a marker of inflammation. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate novel early prognostic predictors of AP, such as NLR and its correlation with the Ranson score.

METHODS

A total 435 patients (Male: 152; 34.9%, Age: 63.53 ± 17.22 years) were included in the study. Data were collected by two clinicians scanning the registered hospital records.

RESULTS

Classification of the patients according to the aetiologies revealed gallstone(s) 58.6% (n = 255), hyperlipidaemia 2.2% (n = 9), viruses 0.7% (n = 3), malignancies 0.5% (n = 2), and alcohol 0.2% (n = 1). No reason was discovered in 37.9% (n = 165) of patients. Age, duration in the intensive care unit, serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, and the NLR were greater in the group with a Ranson score ≥3 than the group with a Ranson score <3.

DISCUSSION

Quick diagnosis is essential in AP. Current scoring systems for AP diagnosis are complicated, whereas NLP is a simple, practical, and effective marker.

Are traditional scoring systems for severity stratification of acute pancreatitis sufficient?

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

Ranson's score (RS) and Glasgow score (GS) have been utilized to stratify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to validate RS and GS for stratifying the severity of acute pancreatitis and audit our experience of managing AP.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of patients treated for AP from July 2009 to September 2016. Final severity was determined using the revised Atlanta classification. Mortality and complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

From July 2009 to September 2016, a total of 675 patients with a diagnosis of AP were admitted at the hospital. Of them, 669 patients who had sufficient data were analyzed. Their average age±SD was 58.7±17.4 years (range, 21-98 years). There was a male preponderance (n=393, 53.8%). A total of 82 (12.3%) patients had eventual severe pancreatitis. RS demonstrated a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 52.8% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 21.5% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.1%. GS demonstrated a sensitivity of 76.8% and a specificity of 69.2% with a PPV of 25.8% and a NPV of 95.5%. For severity prediction, areas under the curve (AUCs) for RS and GS were 0.848 (95% CI: 0.819-0.875) and 0.784 (95% CI: 0.750-0.814), respectively (p=0.003). Twelve (1.6%) patients died in the hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

RS has higher sensitivity, NPV and AUC for predicting severity of AP than GS.

A New Marker to Determine Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: PLR and NLR Combination

Background

We aimed to investigate the prognostic importance of platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutro - phil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) combination for patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis and its relationship with mortality.

Methods

This retrospective study was included 142 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Ranson, Atlanta and BISAP 0h, 24h and 48h scores of the patients were calculated by examining their patient files. The patients were divided into three groups as low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk patients according to their PLR and NLR levels.

Results

The number of patients with acute pancreatitis complications such as necrotizing pancreatitis, acute renal failure, sepsis and cholangitis was significantly higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. Mortality rate was found to be 90% in the high-risk group, 16% in the medium-risk group, and 1.9% in the low-risk group. The number of patients with a Ranson score of 5 and 6, a severe Atlanta score, a BISAP 0h score of 3 and 4, a BISAP 24h and 48h score of 4 and 5 was higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. PLR-NLR combination, Atlanta and Ranson scores, and C-reactive protein level were determined to be independent risk factors predicting mortality in stepwise regression model. PLR-NLR combination had the highest area under curve value in terms of predicting acute claspancreatitis prognosis and had a similar diagnostic discrimination with other scoring systems.

Conclusion

In our study it was found that PLR-NLR combination had a similar prognostic importance with other scoring systems used to determine acute pancreatitis prognosis.

Predictive value of C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) increases and albumin decreases in patients with inflammation and infection. However, their role in patients with acute pancreatitis is not clear. The present study was to investigate the predictive significance of the CRP/albumin ratio for the prognosis and mortality in acute pancreatitis patients.

METHODS

This study was performed retrospectively with 192 acute pancreatitis patients between January 2002 and June 2015. Ranson scores, Atlanta classification and CRP/albumin ratios of the patients were calculated.

RESULTS

The CRP/albumin ratio was higher in deceased patients compared to survivors. The CRP/albumin ratio was positively correlated with Ranson score and Atlanta classification in particular and with important prognostic markers such as hospitalization time, CRP and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. In addition to the CRP/albumin ratio, necrotizing pancreatitis type, moderately severe and severe Atlanta classification, and total Ranson score were independent risk factors of mortality. It was found that an increase of 1 unit in the CRP/albumin ratio resulted in an increase of 1.52 times in mortality risk. A prediction value about CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 was found to be a significant marker in predicting mortality with 92.1% sensitivity and 58.0% specificity. It was seen that Ranson and Atlanta classification were higher in patients with CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 compared with those with CRP/albumin ratio ≤16.28. Patients with CRP/albumin ratio >16.28 had a 19.3 times higher chance of death.

CONCLUSION

The CRP/albumin ratio is a novel but promising, easy-to-measure, repeatable, non-invasive inflammation-based prognostic score in acute pancreatitis.

Analysis of factors influencing survival in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Acute pancreatitis (AP) ranges from a mild and self-limiting disease to a fulminant illness with significant morbidity and mortality. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is defined as persistent organ failure lasting for 48 h. We aimed to determine the factors that predict survival and mortality in patients with SAP.

METHODS

We reviewed a consecutive series of patients who were admitted with acute pancreatitis between January 2003 and January 2013. A total of 1213 cases involving 660 patients were evaluated, and 68 cases with SAP were selected for the study. Patients were graded based on the Computer Tomography Severity Index (CTSI), the bedside index for severity (BISAP), and Ranson's criteria.

RESULTS

The frequency of SAP was 5.6% (68/1213 cases). Among these patients, 17 died due to pancreatitis-induced causes. We compared several factors between the survivor (n = 51) and non-survivor (n = 17) groups. On multivariate analysis, there were significant differences in the incidence of diabetes mellitus (p = .04), Ranson score (p = .03), bacteremia (p = .05) and body mass index (BMI) (p = .02) between the survivor and non-survivor groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Bacteremia, high Ranson score, DM, and lower BMI were closely associated with mortality in patients with SAP. When patients with SAP show evidence of bacteremia or diabetes, aggressive treatment is necessary. For the prediction of disease mortality, the Ranson score might be a useful tool in SAP.

Predictive factors for severe evolution in acute pancreatitis and a new score for predicting a severe outcome

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an acute inflammation of the pancreas with an unpredictable evolution. The aim of this study was to assess the factors associated with severe evolution of AP and to create a new score for predicting a severe outcome.

METHODS

The initial group included 334 patients hospitalized in 2006-2009. The validation group included 195 patients admitted in 2010-2011. AP was classified according to the Atlanta criteria.

RESULTS

In the initial group, C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine, white blood count, body mass index (BMI), age and male gender were correlated with severe evolution of AP. Using only parameters available in emergency, by multiple regression analysis we obtained in the initial group the following score for predicting severe evolution of AP: Prediction pancreatic severity I score (PPS I score) = -1.038 + 0.119 × creatinine (mg/dL) + 0.012 × BMI (kg/m²) + 0.027xwhite blood count/1000 (cells/mm³) + 0.195 × gender (1-women, 2-men) + 0.005 × age (years). For a cut-off value >0.325, PPS I score had 71.8% accuracy (AUC=0.790) for predicting a severe evolution of AP. In the validation group the accuracy was 71.7%. Since CRP was proven to be a good predictor of severe evolution in AP, we calculated another score, PPS II, obtained using PPS I and CRP: PPS II score = -0.192 + 0.760 x PPS I + 0.003 x CRP (mg/L). For a cut-off value >0.397, PPS II score had 87.1% accuracy (AUROC=0.942) in the initial group and 75.3% accuracy in the validation group for predicting severe AP.

CONCLUSIONS

PPS I and especially PPS II score are accurate predictors of severe outcome in patients with AP.

Balthazar computed tomography severity index is superior to Ranson criteria and APACHE II scoring system in predicting acute pancreatitis outcome

AIM: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a process with variable involvement of regional tissues or organ systems. Multifactorial scales included the Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) systems and Balthazar computed tomography severity index (CTSI). The purpose of this review study was to assess the accuracy of CTSI, Ranson score, and APACHE II score in course and outcome prediction of AP.

METHODS: We reviewed 121 patients who underwent helical CT within 48 h after onset of symptoms of a first episode of AP between 1999 and 2003. Fourteen inappropriate subjects were excluded; we reviewed the 107 contrast-enhanced CT images to calculate the CTSI. We also reviewed their Ranson and APACHE II score. In addition, complications, duration of hospitalization, mortality rate, and other pathology history also were our comparison parameters.

RESULTS: We classified 85 patients (79%) as having mild AP (CTSI <5) and 22 patients (21%) as having severe AP (CTSI ≥5). In mild group, the mean APACHE II score and Ranson score was 8.61.9 and 2.41.2, and those of severe group was 10.22.1 and 3.10.8, respectively. The most common complication was pseudocyst and abscess and it presented in 21 (20%) patients and their CTSI was 5.91.4. A CTSI ≥5 significantly correlated with death, complication present, and prolonged length of stay. Patients with a CTSI ≥5 were 15 times to die than those CTSI <5, and the prolonged length of stay and complications present were 17 times and 8 times than that in CTSI <5, respectively.

CONCLUSION: CTSI is a useful tool in assessing the severity and outcome of AP and the CTSI ≥5 is an index in our study. Although Ranson score and APACHE II score also are choices to be the predictors for complications, mortality and the length of stay of AP, the sensitivity of them are lower than CTSI.