Research on cross-platform dissemination of rational and irrational information based on a two-layer network

Numerous social media platforms have evolved into fertile grounds for the proliferation of irrational information, expanding the avenues of information dissemination. This paper initially utilized the Weibo and Bilibili social platforms as exemplars and devised a cross-platform two-layer network SEIaIbR-FXYaYbZ dissemination model grounded in classical infectious disease models. Subsequently, this research computed the model equilibrium point, basic reproduction number, and information entropy through dynamic equations. Finally, the model equations were fitted to real cases to determine optimal parameter solutions and conduct simulation analysis. The simulation results reveal that: (i) information entropy values on both platforms are low, with irrational information predominantly influencing public opinion; (ii) concerning various types of information, the augmentation of rational information results in a reduction of irrational information, while the quantity of rational information remains largely unaffected by changes in the quantity of irrational information; (iii) examining different platforms for information dissemination, alterations in the circulation rate and quantity of rational information on the Weibo platform impact the quantity of rational and irrational information on the Bilibili platform, while those changes on the Bilibili platform exert minimal influence on public opinion information on the Weibo platform. The results and corresponding strategies obtained from this study on the cross-platform dissemination of rational and irrational information on Weibo and Bilibili can provide a reference for relevant departments to guide the rational development of online information and enhance the effective management of public opinion in social media platforms.

Modelling the impact of human behavior using a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network for transmission and control of Mpox

PURPOSE

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies and analyze the impact of human behavior on the transmission of Mpox. The results can provide guidance to public health authorities on comprehensive prevention and control for the new Mpox virus strain in the Democratic Republic of Congo as of December 2023.

METHODS

We develop a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network model. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm is used to fit Mpox cases in Canada into the network model. Numerical simulations are used to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and human behavior on the final epidemic size.

RESULTS

Our results show that the contact transmission rate of low-risk groups and susceptible humans increases when the contact transmission rate of high-risk groups and susceptible humans is controlled as the Mpox epidemic spreads. The contact transmission rate of high-risk groups after May 18, 2022, is approximately 20% lower than that before May 18, 2022. Our findings indicate a positive correlation between the basic reproduction number and the level of heterogeneity in human contacts, with the basic reproduction number estimated at 2.3475 (95% CI: 0.0749-6.9084). Reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week effectively reduces the reproduction number to below one.

CONCLUSION

We need to pay attention to the re-emergence of the epidemics caused by low-risk groups when an outbreak dominated by high-risk groups is under control. Numerical simulations show that reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week is effective in slowing down the rapid spread of the epidemic. Our findings offer guidance for the public health authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo in developing effective mitigation strategies.

Impacts of social distancing on the spread of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infection: A mathematical model

Social distancing can be divided into two categories: spontaneous social distancing adopted by the individuals themselves, and public social distancing promoted by the government. Both types of social distancing have been proved to suppress the spread of infectious disease effectively. While previous studies examined the impact of each social distancing separately, the simultaneous impacts of them are less studied. In this research, we develop a mathematical model to analyze how spontaneous social distancing and public social distancing simultaneously affect the outbreak threshold of an infectious disease with asymptomatic infection. A communication-contact two-layer network is constructed to consider the difference between spontaneous social distancing and public social distancing. Based on link overlap of the two layers, the two-layer network is divided into three subnetworks: communication-only network, contact-only network, and overlapped network. Our results show that public social distancing can significantly increase the outbreak threshold of an infectious disease. To achieve better control effect, the subnetwork of higher infection risk should be more targeted by public social distancing, but the subnetworks of lower infection risk shouldn't be overlooked. The impact of spontaneous social distancing is relatively weak. On the one hand, spontaneous social distancing in the communication-only network has no impact on the outbreak threshold of the infectious disease. On the other hand, the impact of spontaneous social distancing in the overlapped network is highly dependent on the detection of asymptomatic infection sources. Moreover, public social distancing collaborates with infection detection on controlling an infectious disease, but their impacts can't add up perfectly. Besides, public social distancing is slightly less effective than infection detection, because infection detection can also promote spontaneous social distancing.