Limited increase in asynchrony between the onset of spring green-up and the arrival of a long-distance migratory bird

For many migrant bird species around the world, climate change has been shown to induce changes in the timings of arrival and the onset of spring food availability at breeding sites. However, whether such changes enlarged asynchrony between the timings of spring arrival of long-distance migratory birds and onset of vegetation greenness increase remain controversial. We used a 29-year phenological dataset to investigate the temporal changes in spring first-sighting date (FSD) of a long-distance migratory bird (barn swallow, Hirundo rustica), from observations at 160 local breeding sites across northern China, and the vegetation green-up onset date (VGD), determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness. We found that both FSD and VGD trended earlier at over two-thirds of the breeding sites. FSD significantly advanced at 26.9% of the sites, and VGD significantly advanced at 23.8% of the sites. The degree of asynchrony between FSD and VGD changed significantly at one-third of the breeding sites (22.5% with an increase versus 11.3% with a decrease), leading to a limited increase of phenological mismatch. We speculated that climate change did not disrupt the climatic connections between most breeding sites and corresponding non-breeding sites (wintering grounds and migration routes). Our findings suggest that climate change may not greatly increase phenological mismatch between first arrival date of barn swallows and VGD at breeding sites. Importantly, this study should serve as a cue to encourage ecologists and conservation biologists to expand the context under which to explore the ecological consequences of phenological shifts beyond asynchrony, such as individual survival, population demography and ecosystem-level consequences.