Assessment of rotavirus and norovirus emitted from water spray park: QMRA, diseases burden and sensitivity analysis

A quantitative model on exposure to pathogenic viruses in air of recreational area and their corresponding health effects is necessary to provide mitigation actions in content of emergency response plans (ERP). Here, the health risk associated with exposure to two pathogenic viruses of concern: Rotavirus (RoV) and Norovirus (NoV) in air of water spray park were estimated using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. To this end, real-time Reverse Transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR) was employed to measure the concentration levels of RoV and NoV over a twelve-month period. The probability of infection, illness and diseases burden of gastrointestinal illness (GI) caused by RoV and NoV for both workers and visitors were estimated using QMRA and Monto-Carlo simulation technique. The annual mean concentration for RoV and NoV in sampling air of water spray park were 20and 1754, respectively. The %95 confidence interval (CI) calculated annual DALY indicator for RoV (Workers: 2.62 × 10⁻⁴–2.62 × 10⁻¹, Visitors: 1.50 × 10⁻⁵–2.42 × 10⁻¹) and NoV (Workers: 5.54 × 10⁻³–2.53 × 10⁻¹; Visitors: 5.18 × 10⁻⁴–2.54 × 10⁻¹) were significantly higher the recommended values by WHO and US EPA (10⁻⁶–10⁻⁴ DALY pppy). According to sensitivity analysis, exposure dose and disease burden per case (DBPC) were found as the most influencing factors on disease burden as a consequences of exposure to RoV and NoV, respectively. The comprehensive information on DALY and QMRA can aid authorities involved in risk assessment and recreational actions to adopt proper approach and mitigation actions to minimize the health risk.