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Anderson DL, Ruggiero P, Mendez FJ, Barnard PL, Erikson LH, O’Neill AC, Merrifield M, Rueda A, Cagigal L, Marra J. Projecting Climate Dependent Coastal Flood Risk With a Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Model. Earths Future 2021; 9:e2021EF002285. [PMID: 35864860 PMCID: PMC9286665 DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2021] [Revised: 10/27/2021] [Accepted: 11/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nuisance flooding during the 21st century. A surrogate modeling framework of waves, winds, and tides is developed in this study to efficiently predict spatially varying nearshore and estuarine water levels contingent on any combination of offshore forcing conditions. The surrogate models are coupled with a time-dependent stochastic climate emulator that provides efficient downscaling for hypothetical iterations of offshore conditions. Together, the hybrid statistical-dynamical framework can assess present day and future coastal flood risk, including the chronological characteristics of individual flood and wave-induced dune overtopping events and their changes into the future. The framework is demonstrated at Naval Base Coronado in San Diego, CA, utilizing the regional Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS; composed of Delft3D and XBeach) as the dynamic simulator and Gaussian process regression as the surrogate modeling tool. Validation of the framework uses both in-situ tide gauge observations within San Diego Bay, and a nearshore cross-shore array deployment of pressure sensors in the open beach surf zone. The framework reveals the relative influence of large-scale climate variability on future coastal flood resilience metrics relevant to the management of an open coast artificial berm, as well as the stochastic nature of future total water levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- D. L. Anderson
- College of EngineeringNorth Carolina State UniversityRaleighNCUSA
| | - P. Ruggiero
- College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric SciencesOregon State UniversityCorvallisORUSA
| | - F. J. Mendez
- Dpto Ciencias y Tecnicas del Agua y del Medio AmbienteUniversidad de CantabriaSantanderSpain
| | - P. L. Barnard
- Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterUnited States Geological SurveySanta CruzCAUSA
| | - L. H. Erikson
- Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterUnited States Geological SurveySanta CruzCAUSA
| | - A. C. O’Neill
- Pacific Coastal and Marine Science CenterUnited States Geological SurveySanta CruzCAUSA
| | - M. Merrifield
- Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California San DiegoLa JollaCAUSA
| | - A. Rueda
- Dpto Ciencias y Tecnicas del Agua y del Medio AmbienteUniversidad de CantabriaSantanderSpain
| | - L. Cagigal
- Dpto Ciencias y Tecnicas del Agua y del Medio AmbienteUniversidad de CantabriaSantanderSpain
- School of EnvironmentFaculty of ScienceUniversity of AucklandAucklandNew Zealand
| | - J. Marra
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationHonoluluHIUSA
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Dykstra SL, Dzwonkowski B. The Role of Intensifying Precipitation on Coastal River Flooding and Compound River-Storm Surge Events, Northeast Gulf of Mexico. Water Resour Res 2021; 57:e2020WR029363. [PMID: 35864887 PMCID: PMC9286652 DOI: 10.1029/2020wr029363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Revised: 08/09/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Destructive coastal floods are commonly increasing in frequency and may be caused by global precipitation intensification. Such connections through climate, watershed, and river processes are poorly understood because of complex interactions in transitional fluvial-marine environments where flooding is caused by rivers, marine storm surge, or both in compound events. To better understand river floods along the fluvial-marine transition, we study watersheds of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico using long-term observations. Results show intensifying precipitation decreased precipitation-discharge lag times, increasing river-flood frequency and the likelihood of compound events in fluvial-marine transitions. This reduction in lag time occurred when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation began strongly affecting river discharge through the advection of moist air, intensifying precipitation. Along the fluvial-marine transition, compound events were largest in inland reaches. However, for inland reaches, compound event water levels did not exceed the floods caused solely by river flooding, the largest flood hazard in these systems. Our results demonstrate precipitation and river discharge play critical roles in coastal flooding and will likely escalate flooding as the climate continues to warm and intensify precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- S L Dykstra
- Department of Marine Sciences University of South Alabama Dauphin Island Sea Lab Dauphin Island AL USA
- Dauphin Island Sea Lab Dauphin Island AL USA
- Now at School of the Earth, Ocean and Environment University of South Carolina Columbia SC USA
| | - B Dzwonkowski
- Department of Marine Sciences University of South Alabama Dauphin Island Sea Lab Dauphin Island AL USA
- Dauphin Island Sea Lab Dauphin Island AL USA
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3
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Hinkel J, Feyen L, Hemer M, Le Cozannet G, Lincke D, Marcos M, Mentaschi L, Merkens JL, de Moel H, Muis S, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis AT, van de Wal RSW, Vousdoukas MI, Wahl T, Ward PJ, Wolff C. Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk. Earths Future 2021; 9:e2020EF001882. [PMID: 34435072 PMCID: PMC8365640 DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2020] [Revised: 05/12/2021] [Accepted: 06/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3-5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2-3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6-3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6-2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Hinkel
- Global Climate Forum (GCF)BerlinGermany
- Division of Resource EconomicsAlbrecht Daniel Thaer‐Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social‐Ecological Systems (WINS)Humboldt‐UniversityBerlinGermany
| | - L. Feyen
- European CommissionJoint Research Centre (JRC)IspraItaly
| | - M. Hemer
- CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart TASAustralia
| | | | - D. Lincke
- Global Climate Forum (GCF)BerlinGermany
| | - M. Marcos
- Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA)PalmaSpain
- Department of PhysicsUniversity of the Balearic IslandsPalmaSpain
| | - L. Mentaschi
- European CommissionJoint Research Centre (JRC)IspraItaly
- Department of Physics and Astronomy Augusto RighiUniversity of BolognaBolognaItaly
| | - J. L. Merkens
- Institute of GeographyChristian‐Albrechts University KielKielGermany
| | - H. de Moel
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamNetherlands
| | - S. Muis
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamNetherlands
- DeltaresDelftNetherlands
| | - R. J. Nicholls
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
| | - A. T. Vafeidis
- Institute of GeographyChristian‐Albrechts University KielKielGermany
| | - R. S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht and Department of Physical GeographyUtrecht UniversityUtrechtNetherlands
| | | | - T. Wahl
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction EngineeringNational Center for Integrated Coastal ResearchUniversity of Central FloridaOrlandoFLUSA
| | - P. J. Ward
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamNetherlands
| | - C. Wolff
- Institute of GeographyChristian‐Albrechts University KielKielGermany
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4
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Rasmussen DJ, Buchanan MK, Kopp RE, Oppenheimer M. A Flood Damage Allowance Framework for Coastal Protection With Deep Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise. Earths Future 2020; 8:e2019EF001340. [PMID: 32715011 PMCID: PMC7375071 DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2019] [Revised: 01/04/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Deep uncertainty describes situations when there is either ignorance or disagreement over (1) models used to describe key system processes and (2) probability distributions used to characterize the uncertainty of key variables and parameters. Future projections of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss remain characterized by deep uncertainty. This complicates decisions on long-lived coastal protection projects when determining what margin of safety to implement. If the chosen margin of safety does not properly account for uncertainties in sea level rise, the effectiveness of flood protection could decrease over time, potentially putting lives and properties at a greater risk. To address this issue, we develop a flood damage allowance framework for calculating the height of a flood protection strategy needed to ensure that a given level of financial risk is maintained. The damage allowance framework considers decision maker preferences such as planning horizons, protection strategies, and subjective views of AIS stability. We use Manhattan-with the population and built environment fixed in time-to illustrate how our framework could be used to calculate a range of damage allowances based on multiple plausible scenarios of AIS melt. Under high greenhouse gas emissions, we find that results are sensitive to the selection of the upper limit of AIS contributions to sea level rise. Design metrics that specify financial risk targets, such as expected flood damage, allow for the calculation of avoided flood damages (i.e., benefits) that can be combined with estimates of construction cost and then integrated into existing financial decision-making approaches (e.g., benefit-cost analysis).
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Affiliation(s)
- D. J. Rasmussen
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
| | | | - Robert E. Kopp
- Department of Earth and Planetary SciencesRutgers UniversityPiscatawayNJUSA
- Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric SciencesRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickNJUSA
| | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
- Department of GeosciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
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5
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Lorie M, Neumann JE, Sarofim MC, Jones R, Horton RM, Kopp RE, Fant C, Wobus C, Martinich J, O'Grady M, Gentile L. Modeling Coastal Flood Risk and Adaptation Response under Future Climate Conditions. Clim Risk Manag 2020; 29:100233. [PMID: 32832376 PMCID: PMC7433032 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
The National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) simulates flood damages resulting from sea level rise and storm surge along the contiguous U.S. coastline. The model also projects local-level investments in a set of adaptation measures under the assumption that these measures will be adopted when benefits exceed the costs over a 30-year period. However, it has been observed that individuals and communities often underinvest in adaptive measures relative to standard cost-benefit assumptions due to financial, psychological, sociopolitical, and technological factors. This study applies an updated version of the NCPM to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior. The updated NCPM is tested for two multi-county sites: Virginia Beach, VA and Tampa, FL. Sub-optimal adaptation approaches slow the implementation of adaptation measures throughout the 100-year simulation and they increase the amount of flood damages, especially early in the simulation. The net effect is an increase in total present value cost of $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), representing about a 10% increase compared to optimal adaptation approaches. Future calibrations against historical data and incorporation of non-economic factors driving adaptation decisions could prove useful in better understanding the impacts of continued sub-optimal behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Lorie
- Abt Associates, 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO 80302, USA
| | - James E Neumann
- Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - Marcus C Sarofim
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA
| | - Russell Jones
- Abt Associates, 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO 80302, USA
| | | | - Robert E Kopp
- Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
| | - Charles Fant
- Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - Cameron Wobus
- Lynker Technologies, 3002 Bluff Street, Suite 101, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA
| | - Megan O'Grady
- Lynker Technologies, 3002 Bluff Street, Suite 101, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
| | - Lauren Gentile
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA
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6
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Lemée C, Fleury-Bahi G, Navarro O. Impact of Place Identity, Self-Efficacy and Anxiety State on the Relationship Between Coastal Flooding Risk Perception and the Willingness to Cope. Front Psychol 2019; 10:499. [PMID: 30915001 PMCID: PMC6421279 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 02/20/2019] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Inhabitants of coastal areas are constantly confronted with minor or major events such as storms, erosion or flooding. This article investigates the predictors of coping willingness among citizens exposed to coastal flooding. Coping can be defined as a set of cognitive and behavioral efforts to master, reduce or tolerate a given risk and these strategies are generally regrouped into two different categories: active coping strategies oriented toward the risk to reduce or master it, and passive coping strategies focused on the reduction of internal tensions such as anxiety or fear. In this paper, we focus especially on how place identity, perceived self-efficacy, anxiety-state and coastal flooding risk perception shape both active and passive coping willingness. Data were obtained from different areas at risk of coastal flooding located in France. The sample is composed of 315 adult participants (mean age = 47; SD = 15). Two competing models were tested using path modeling. We expected a direct relation between risk perception and the willingness to cope actively and that a higher perceived self-efficacy would increase active coping willingness. Concerning passive coping strategies, we expected that a higher anxiety-state increases passive coping willingness, and that place identity would act as a mediator and increases the relation between anxiety-state and passive coping willingness. Results suggest that place identity increased when the living place is threatened and that the use of passive coping strategies also increased. Also, we demonstrated a direct relation between risk perception and active coping willingness but it appeared that self-efficacy has no effect on this relation. Model fit indices suggest the good fit of our model and Bayesian model comparison reveals a very strong evidence of the best fit of this model compared to its saturated and independent equivalents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin Lemée
- Laboratoire de Psychologie des Pays de la Loire, University of Nantes, Nantes, France
| | - Ghozlane Fleury-Bahi
- Laboratoire de Psychologie des Pays de la Loire, University of Nantes, Nantes, France
| | - Oscar Navarro
- Laboratoire de Psychologie des Pays de la Loire, University of Nantes, Nantes, France
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Garner AJ, Mann ME, Emanuel KA, Kopp RE, Lin N, Alley RB, Horton BP, DeConto RM, Donnelly JP, Pollard D. Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:11861-6. [PMID: 29078274 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1703568114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse.
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Moftakhari HR, Salvadori G, AghaKouchak A, Sanders BF, Matthew RA. Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:9785-90. [PMID: 28847932 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1620325114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 204] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.
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Abstract
Evidence-based information on household-level adaptation is an important element of integrated management of vulnerable coastal regions. A growing number of empirical studies deal with household-level adaptation at the coast in different regions. This article provides a systematic review of these studies. We analyze studies according to how households in different parts of the world are currently adapting, or how they are intending to adapt, and identify explanatory factors for adaptation behavior and intention. We find that households implement a broad range of adaptation measures and that adaptation behavior is explained by individual factors such as socioeconomic and cognitive variables, experience, and perceived responsibilities. Nonpersonal characteristics have also been used to explain adaptation behavior and intention but have not been extensively investigated. Few studies employ qualitative research methods and use inductive approaches as well as models stemming from behavioral economics. Our findings suggest that coastal risk management policies should communicate the efficacy of household-level adaptation, in addition to information about flood risk, in order to encourage coastal households in their adaptation activities. In this context, we discuss the role of resources and responsibility of households for their adaptation behavior. We describe the lessons learnt and formulate a research agenda on household-level adaptation to coastal flood risk. In practice, coastal risk management policies should further promote individually driven adaptation by integrating it in adaptation strategies and processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jana Koerth
- Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Institute of Geography, University of Kiel, 24098, Kiel, Germany
| | - Athanasios T Vafeidis
- Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Institute of Geography, University of Kiel, 24098, Kiel, Germany
| | - Jochen Hinkel
- Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10829, Berlin, Germany
- Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin
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10
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Beier D, Brzoska P, Khan MMH. Indirect consequences of extreme weather and climate events and their associations with physical health in coastal Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study. Glob Health Action 2015; 8:29016. [PMID: 26477878 PMCID: PMC4609650 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v8.29016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2015] [Revised: 09/11/2015] [Accepted: 09/13/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world which is most prone to natural disasters. The overall situation is expected to worsen, since extreme weather and climate events (EWCE) are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. Indirect consequences caused in the events’ aftermath widen the range of possible adverse health outcomes. Objective To assess the association of indirect consequences of EWCE and physical health. Design We used recent cross-sectional self-reported data from 16 coastal villages in Bangladesh. A total of 980 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The outcome of physical health was categorized into three groups, reflecting the severity of reported diseases by the respective source of treatment as a proxy variable (hospital/clinic for severe disease, other source/no treatment for moderate disease, and no disease). The final statistical analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression. Results Severe diseases were significantly associated with drinking water from open sources [odds ratio (OR): 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.25–8.09] and tube wells (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.43–4.01), moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 2.76–14.11), food scarcity (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16–3.40), and the perception of increased employment problems (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.18–4.07). Moderate diseases were significantly associated with moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.28–5.48) and fully experienced food scarcity (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.16–2.63). For both categories, women and the elderly had higher chances for diseases. Conclusions Indirect consequences of EWCE were found to be associated with adverse health outcomes. Basic needs such as drinking water, food production, and employment opportunities are particularly likely to become threatened by EWCE and, thus, may lead to a higher likelihood of ill-health. Intervention strategies should concentrate on protection and provision of basic needs such as safe drinking water and food in the aftermath of an event.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Beier
- Department of Anesthesiology and Surgical Intensive Care Medicine, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Patrick Brzoska
- Unit of Epidemiology, Institute of Sociology, Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Chemnitz University of Technology, Chemnitz, Germany
| | - Md Mobarak Hossain Khan
- Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany;
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Hinkel J, Lincke D, Vafeidis AT, Perrette M, Nicholls RJ, Tol RS, Marzeion B, Fettweis X, Ionescu C, Levermann A. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2014; 111:3292-7. [PMID: 24596428 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222469111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 184] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.
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