Factors influencing public participation behavior relating to government microblogs on COVID-19 updates

Introduction

During the global COVID-19 pandemic, densely populated megacities engaged in active international exchanges have faced the most severe impacts from both the disease and the associated infodemic. This study examines the factors influencing public participation behavior on government microblogs in these megacities during the pandemic. It guides megacities in disseminating epidemic information, promoting knowledge on epidemic prevention, managing public opinion, and addressing related matters.

Methods

Utilizing the elaboration likelihood model's central and peripheral routes, drawing on an empirical analysis of 6,677 epidemic-related microblogs from seven Chinese megacities, this study analyses the influence mechanisms influencing public participation behavior and reveals the regulatory role of confirmed case numbers. Meanwhile,a qualitative comparative analysis examines and discusses diferent confgurations of ixn fuential factors.

Results

The study reveals that microblog content richness demonstrates a U-shaped impact on public participation behavior. Conversely, content interaction, content length, and the number of fans positively impact participation, while update frequency has a negative impact. Additionally, the number of new confrmed cases positively regulates the impact of microblog content and publisher characteristics on public participation behavior. Public participation behavior also varies based on publishing time and content semantic features. This study further revealed the different confgurations of influential factors by QCA method.

Conclusion

This study reveals the impact mechanism of the microblog content and publisher characteristics on public participation behavior. It also demonstrates the regulatory role of newly confrmed cases in the way content and publishers' characteristics influence public participation behavior. This study is of great significance for the operation of government microblogs, the release of emergency information, and the promotion of public participation.

Lassa fever cases and mortality in Nigeria: Quantile Regression vs. Machine Learning Models

Lassa fever (LF) is caused by the Lassa fever virus (LFV). It is endemic in West Africa, of which % of the infections are ascribed to Nigeria. This disease affects mostly the productive age and hence a proper understanding of the dynamics of this disease will help in formulating policies that would help in curbing the spread of LF. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of quantile regression models with that of Machine Learning models in. Data between between 7th January 2018 2018 and 17th December, 2022 on suspected cases, confirmed cases and deaths resulting from LF were retrieved from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). The data obtained were fitted to quantile regression models (QRM) at 25, 50 and 75% as well as to Machine learning models. The response variable being confirmed cases and mortality due to Lassa fever in Nigeria while the independent variables were total confirmed cases, the week, month and year. Result showed that the highest monthly mean confirmed cases (56) and mortality (9) from LF were reported in February. The first quarter of the year reported the highest cases of both confirmed cases and deaths in Nigeria. Result also revealed that for the confirmed cases, quantile regression at 50% outperformed the best of the MLM, Gaussian-matern5/2 GPR (RMSE=10.3393 vs. 11.615), while for mortality, the medium Gaussian SVM (RMSE=1.6441 vs. 1.8352) outperformed QRM. Quantile regression model at 50% better captured the dynamics of the confirmed cases of LF in Nigeria while the medium Gaussian SVM better captured the mortality of LF in Nigeria. Among the features selected, confirmed cases was found to be the most important feature that drive its mortality with the implication that as the confirmed cases of Lassa fever increases, is a significant increase in its mortality. This therefore necessitates a need for a better intervention measures that will help curb Lassa fever mortality as a result of the increase in the confirmed cases. There is also a need for promotion of good community hygiene which could include; discouraging rodents from entering homes and putting food in rodent proof containers to avoid contamination to help hart the spread of Lassa fever in Nigeria.

The age structure of cases as the key of COVID-19 severity: Longitudinal population-based analysis of European countries during 150 days

AIMS

Over a million confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across 16 European countries were observed during the first wave of the pandemic. Epidemiological measures like the case fatality rate (CFR) are generally used to determine the severity of the illness. The aim is to investigate the impact of the age structure of reported cases on the reported CFR and possibilities of its demographic adjustment for a better cross-country comparison (age-standardized CFRs, time delay between cases detection and death).

METHODS

This longitudinal study uses prospective, population-based data covering 150 days, starting on the day of confirmation of the 100th case in each country. COVerAGE-DB and the Human Mortality Database were used in this regard. The age-standardized CFRs were calculated with and without the time delay of the number of deaths after the confirmation of the cases.

RESULTS

The observed decline in the CFRs at the end of the first wave is partly given by the changes in the age structure of confirmed cases. Using the adjusted (age-standardized) CFRs with time delay, the risk of death among confirmed cases is much more stable in comparison to crude (observed) CFRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventing the spread of COVID-19 among the elderly is an important way to positively influence the overall fatality rate, decrease the number of deaths, and not overload the health systems. The crude CFRs (still often presented) are not sufficient for a proper evaluation of the development across populations nor as a means of identifying the influencing factors.

Epidemiological trends of Lassa fever in Nigeria from 2015-2021: A review

Introduction:

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever with non-specific symptoms that has shown an upward trend in Nigeria and other West African countries, which is depicted by high incidence and case fatality in recent years. There are different reports on the yearly case burden of Lassa fever from the Federal Ministry of Health in Nigeria, through the regulatory body – Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). Being the epicentre of the disease, Lassa fever has been exported from Nigeria to both neighbouring and distant countries.Methods: The aim of this review was to carry out a retrospective analysis from January 2015 to 26 September 2021 of the weekly and yearly outbreak of Lassa fever in Nigeria based on selected publications. The focus was on timely diagnosis, treatment option, public health interventions and progress of clinical trials for vaccine candidates, and to identify proactive measures that can be sustained to curb periodic outbreaks. The review was done using percentages, cross-tabulation and graphical charts.

Results:

The predominant age group infected was 21 to 40 years with a male to female ratio of 1:0.8. A total of 3311 laboratory-confirmed Lassa fever cases out of 20,588 suspected cases were identified from 29 states. Edo, Ondo, Taraba, Ebonyi, Bauchi, Plateau and Nasarawa had yearly Lassa fever incidence over the time frame considered. Contact tracing was done on over 33,804 individuals with about 90% completing follow-up. Case fatality rate within the period ranged from 9.3% to 29.2%. There is a sharp decline in the epidemiological trend of Lassa fever in the yearly seasonal peaks from weeks 1 to 13 with about 75% reduction in incidence between 2020 and 2021.

Conclusion:

The effective management of Lassa fever needs the implementation of preventive methods, prompt laboratory diagnosis, timely treatment, provision of personal protective equipment, cross-border surveillance, contact tracing, community awareness and vector control in order to minimise spread.

The COVID-19 shocks on the stock markets of oil exploration and production enterprises

Using daily data from January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, this research explores COVID-19 shocks on the stock market of 15 representative oil exploration and production enterprises from 7 countries. We measure the COVID-19 epidemic from two levels, government response stringency index and number of confirmed cases, and employ stock prices and stock market returns to reflect the stock market. Our research results confirm that both the government response stringency index and the number of confirmed cases have a significantly negative influence on stock prices. We further find that the negative reaction of the stock market to the government response stringency index is greater than that from confirmed cases. Finally, we conclude that the government response stringency index have a significantly positive effect on stock market returns of oil exploration and production enterprises. Similar findings arise from analyzing specific enterprises. Overall, our conclusions provide some useful information for the decision-making of oil exploration and production enterprises’ investors and policy makers.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Iraqi Community: a descriptive study based on data reported from the Ministry of Health in Iraq

INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus is a new pandemic disease that has emerged in Wuhan, China, and then spreads around the world. The cases number of the COVID-19, which have been daily reported in Iraq, has risen slowly. However, no confirmed study has been undertaken to evaluate the situation of the COVID-19 in concerning the confirmed cases, death cases, and recovered.

METHODOLOGY

The current study is undertaken to describe and assess the COVID-19 of the present situation in Iraq out of the range of the confirmed, deaths and recovered cases from the date 21 February to 30 April 2020 in Iraq.

RESULTS

The study findings have revealed that there is a gradual increase of COVID-19 cases onwards until the top peak in 7th Apr. in which the cases reach 684, then decrease regularly. The total infected people of the study scope is 2085 persons according to the Ministry of Health in Iraq, while the World Health Organization (WHO) states 2003 person. The spatial distribution quantile map showed the hot spots in the province of Babylon, Maysan, and Diyala. However, less was found in three provinces (Nineveh, Salahaddin, and Al Anbar). The result shows that 39% recovered and 3% death cases out of total infected people.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 in Iraq comes to be limited via the procedures of Iraqi government. However, the infected people will be increased gradually and many international reports that predict the end of this pandemic in the world will be doubtful as there are many vaccines developed and under development which led to reduce to effect of this pandemic.

Epidemiology of Lassa Fever and Factors Associated with Deaths, Bauchi State, Nigeria, 2015-2018

We report the epidemiology of Lassa fever in Bauchi State, a disease-endemic region, in Nigeria. Since 2015, major increases in Lassa fever attack rate and in the case-fatality rate have occurred in this state. A delay in seeking care by a case-patient for >7 days after symptom onset was the major predictor of death.

Global burden of COVID-19: Situational analyis and review

BACKGROUND

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the major public health burden in the world. The morbidity and mortality of the global community due to this disease is dramatically increasing from time to time.

OBJECTIVE

This situational analysis is aimed to analyse prevalence and incidence of COVID-19 and to provide clear information about this disease for the scientific community, stakeholders, healthcare practitioners and decision-makers.

METHODS

The literatures were identified by searching the key relevant and officially known online databases: medRxiv, Google scholar and PubMed. The online databases contain archives of most English biomedical journals and scientific papers published online from 31 December to 3 April 2020 were included. After the literature search, articles were screened independently by two reviewers for eligibility.

RESULTS

The world continents have confirmed a total of 1,202,320 confirmed COVID-19 cases: (51.2%) in Europe, (27.7%) in North America, (17.9%) in Asia, (1.96%) in South America and at less number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Africa and Australia which was accounted 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively. However, this review showed that there was a significant increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases by 109,555 in Asia, 8,658 in Africa, 332,866 in North America, 20,269 in South America, 568,894 in Europe, 5,051 in Australia and 1,045,403 in the whole world, with the exception of Antartica, during the review period. The overall results showed that there were 1,098,762 cases and 59,172 deaths recorded during the review period. The result zero number of deaths with COVID-19 was observed in 66 countries.

CONCLUSION

The review concluded that COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2 is the major public health burden in the world, the morbidity and mortality of global community is dramatically increasing from time to time. Strong collaboration among all sectors and the design of effective prevention and control strategies which include staying home, social/physical distancing, quarantine, testing of suspected patients, isolation and managing of the confirmed cases. Therefore, all countries should implement five major COVID-19 prevention and control programmes as soon as possible at community level.

Epidemics, Public Sentiment, and Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility

Background: This article studies the relationship between the COVID-19 epidemic, public sentiment, and the volatility of infectious disease equities from the perspective of the United States. We use weekly data from January 3, 2020 to March 7, 2021. This provides a sufficient dataset for empirical analysis. Granger causality test results prove the two-way relationship between the fluctuation of infectious disease equities and confirmed cases. In addition, confirmed cases will cause the public to search for COVID-19 tests, and COVID-19 tests will also cause fluctuations in infectious disease equities, but there is no reverse correlation. The results of this research are useful to investors and policy makers. Investors can use the number of confirmed cases to predict the volatility of infectious disease equities. Similarly, policy makers can use the intervention of retrieved information to stabilize public sentiment and equity market fluctuations, and integrate a variety of information to make more scientific judgments on the trends of the epidemic.

Forecasting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Using Empirical Data Analysis in Korea

From November to December 2020, the third wave of COVID-19 cases in Korea is ongoing. The government increased Seoul's social distancing to the 2.5 level, and the number of confirmed cases is increasing daily. Due to a shortage of hospital beds, treatment is difficult. Furthermore, gatherings at the end of the year and the beginning of next year are expected to worsen the effects. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of prediction timing rather than prediction of the number of confirmed cases. Thus, in this study, five groups were set according to minimum, maximum, and high variability. Through empirical data analysis, the groups were subdivided into a total of 19 cases. The cumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases is predicted using the auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and compared with the actual number of confirmed cases. Through group and case-by-case prediction, forecasts can accurately determine decreasing and increasing trends. To prevent further spread of COVID-19, urgent and strong government restrictions are needed. This study will help the government and the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) to respond systematically to a future surge in confirmed cases.

Environmental Indicator for COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused viral pneumonia worldwide, posing a major threat to international health. Our study reports that city lockdown is an effective way to reduce the number of new cases and the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration can be used as an environmental lockdown indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown measures. The airborne NO2 concentration steeply decreased over the vast majority of COVID-19-hit areas since the lockdown. The total number of newly confirmed cases reached an inflection point about two weeks since the lockdown and could be reduced by about 50% within 30 days of the lockdown. The stricter lockdown will help newly confirmed cases to decline earlier and more rapidly, and at the same time, the reduction rate of NO2 concentration will increase. Our research results show that NO2 satellite observations can help decision makers effectively monitor and manage non-pharmaceutical interventions in the epidemic.

Disparities in Age-specific Morbidity and Mortality From SARS-CoV-2 in China and the Republic of Korea

We analyzed age-/sex-specific morbidity and mortality data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in China and Republic of Korea (ROK). Data from China exhibit a Gaussian distribution with peak morbidity in the 50-59-year cohort, while the ROK data have a bimodal distribution with the highest morbidity in the 20-29-year cohort.