Clinical Epidemiology and Risk Factors for Critical Outcomes Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19-VISION Network, 10 States, June 2021-March 2023

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to develop with emerging variants, expanding population-level immunity, and advances in clinical care. We describe changes in the clinical epidemiology of COVID-19 hospitalizations and risk factors for critical outcomes over time.

METHODS

We included adults aged ≥18 years from 10 states hospitalized with COVID-19 June 2021-March 2023. We evaluated changes in demographics, clinical characteristics, and critical outcomes (intensive care unit admission and/or death) and evaluated critical outcomes risk factors (risk ratios [RRs]), stratified by COVID-19 vaccination status.

RESULTS

A total of 60 488 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were included in the analysis. Among those hospitalized, median age increased from 60 to 75 years, proportion vaccinated increased from 18.2% to 70.1%, and critical outcomes declined from 24.8% to 19.4% (all P < .001) between the Delta (June-December, 2021) and post-BA.4/BA.5 (September 2022-March 2023) periods. Hospitalization events with critical outcomes had a higher proportion of ≥4 categories of medical condition categories assessed (32.8%) compared to all hospitalizations (23.0%). Critical outcome risk factors were similar for unvaccinated and vaccinated populations; presence of ≥4 medical condition categories was most strongly associated with risk of critical outcomes regardless of vaccine status (unvaccinated: adjusted RR, 2.27 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.14-2.41]; vaccinated: adjusted RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.56-1.92]) across periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 who experienced critical outcomes decreased with time, and median patient age increased with time. Multimorbidity was most strongly associated with critical outcomes.

No Critical Ultrasound, No Life: The Value of Point-of Care Critical Ultrasound in the Rescue of Critically Ill Infants

Point-of-care critical ultrasound (POC-CUS) screening plays an increasingly important role in the treatment of critically ill infants. Without POC-CUS, the lives of many infants would not be saved in time and correctly. A premature infant with systemic multiple organ system dysfunction caused by fungal sepsis was treated and nursed under the guidance of POC-CUS monitoring, and the infant was ultimately cured. This premature infant had systemic multiple organ system dysfunction and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) caused by fungal sepsis. In the hypercoagulable state of early-stage DIC, cardiac thrombosis could be found using ultrasound screening. For this case, right renal artery thrombosis was found via renal artery Doppler ultrasound examination. Due to the severity of this disease, ultrasound-guided peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) insertion and ultrasound checks of the PICC tip's position were performed, which ensured the success of this one-time catheterization and shortened the catheterization time. Lung ultrasound is used for the diagnosis and differential diagnosis of pulmonary diseases, and to guide the application of mechanical ventilation. Because the abdominal circumference of the patient's markedly enlarged abdominal circumference, bloody stool, and absence of bowel sounds, abdominal ultrasonography was performed, which revealed a markedly enlarged liver, significant peritoneal effusion, and necrotizing enterocolitis. Guided by POC-CUS monitoring, we had the opportunity to implement timely and effective treatment that ultimately saved this critically ill patient's life. The successful treatment of this newborn infant fully reflects the importance of carrying out POC-CUS screening.

Serum Selenium-Binding Protein 1 (SELENBP1) in Burn Injury: A Potential Biomarker of Disease Severity and Clinical Course

Oxidative stress, systemic inflammation, and metabolic derangements are hallmarks of burn pathophysiology. Severely burned patients are highly susceptible to infectious complications. Selenium-binding protein 1 (SELENBP1) modulates intracellular redox homeostasis, and elevated serum concentrations have been associated with adverse clinical outcomes in trauma patients. We hypothesized that serum SELENBP1 at hospital admission and during hospitalization may constitute a meaningful biomarker of disease severity and the clinical course in burn injury, with pulmonary infection as primary endpoint. To this end, we conducted a prospective cohort study that included 90 adult patients admitted to the Burn Center of the University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland. Patients were treated according to the local standard of care, with high-dose selenium supplementation during the first week. Serum SELENBP1 was determined at nine time-points up to six months postburn and the data were correlated to clinical parameters. SELENBP1 was initially elevated and rapidly declined within the first day. Baseline SELENBP1 levels correlated positively with the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) (R = 0.408; p < 0.0001). In multiple logistic regression, a higher ABSI was significantly associated with increased pulmonary infection risk (OR, 14.4; 95% CI, 3.2-88.8; p = 0.001). Similarly, baseline SELENBP1 levels constituted a novel but less accurate predictor of pulmonary infection risk (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 0.7-8.9; p = 0.164). Further studies are needed to explore the additional value of serum SELENBP1 when stratifying patients with respect to the clinical course following major burns and, potentially, for monitoring therapeutic measures aimed at reducing tissue damage and oxidative stress.

A Simple Prognostic Score for Critical COVID-19 Derived from Patients without Comorbidities Performs Well in Unselected Patients

We aimed to search for laboratory predictors of critical COVID-19 in consecutive adults admitted in an academic center between 16 September 2020−20 December 2021. Patients were uniformly treated with low-molecular-weight heparin, and dexamethasone plus remdesivir when SpO2 < 94%. Among consecutive unvaccinated patients without underlying medical conditions (n = 241, 49 year-old median, 71% males), 22 (9.1%) developed critical disease and 2 died (0.8%). White-blood-cell counts, neutrophils, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, CRP, fibrinogen, ferritin, LDH and γ-GT at admission were each univariably associated with critical disease. ROC-defined cutoffs revealed that CRP > 61.8 mg/L, fibrinogen > 616.5 mg/dL and LDH > 380.5 U/L were each associated with critical disease development, independently of age, sex and days from symptom-onset. A score combining higher-than-cutoff CRP (0/2), LDH (0/1) and fibrinogen (0/1) predicted critical disease (AUC: 0.873, 95% CI: 0.820−0.926). This score performed well in an unselected patient cohort (n = 1228, 100% unvaccinated) predominantly infected by the alpha variant (AUC: 0.718, 95% CI: 0.683−0.753), as well as in a mixed cohort (n = 527, 65% unvaccinated) predominantly infected by the delta variant (AUC: 0.708, 95% CI: 0.656−0.760). Therefore, we propose that a combination of standard biomarkers of acute inflammatory response, cell death and hypercoagulability reflects the severity of COVID-19 per se independently of comorbidities, age and sex, being of value for risk stratification in unselected patients.

Progression Risk in People with HIV and COVID-19: Predictive Performance of Current Risk Scores

People with HIV (PWH) might have a higher risk of adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. Several scores were developed to predict COVID-19 progression to critical disease and are often used among PWH. We assessed the performance of two commonly used risk equations among PWH and COVID-19. Participants were identified from a multicenter cohort of 6,361 PWH on regular follow-up at 2 university hospitals. Of 99 HIV-infected individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, 63 had complete data and were included in this analysis. CALL and COVID-GRAM scores were calculated and participants were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups for each. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Calibration was evaluated using observed versus expected (O:E) ratios and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² goodness-of-fit statistic. Scores were adjusted by increasing one category level in individuals with nadir CD4 lymphocyte count <200/μL. Participants had a median nadir and current CD4 counts of 207 [interquartile range (IQR) 119-345] and 440 (IQR 280-719) cells/μL. Ten (15.9%) individuals progressed to critical disease and 4 (6.3%) died. Assessed scores showed acceptable discrimination (area under the curve 0.701-0.771) and were overall calibrated (O:E ratio 1.01). However, both overestimated the risk of progression among individuals in the low- and high-risk categories, whereas they underestimated the risk in the intermediate category (O:E 1.20-1.21). Thus, 50% of critically ill individuals were not identified as high risk. Assigning PWH with low nadir CD4 counts a higher risk of progression reduced the proportion of individuals not identified to 20%. COVID-19 risk scores had lower performance in PWH compared with that described in the general population and failed to adequately identify individuals who progressed to critical disease. Adjustment for nadir CD4 partially improved their accuracy. Risk equations incorporating HIV-related factors are needed.

Pregnant women with severe or critical coronavirus disease 2019 have increased composite morbidity compared with nonpregnant matched controls

Background

In March 2020, as community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 became increasingly prevalent, pregnant women seemed to be equally susceptible to developing coronavirus disease 2019. Although the disease course usually appears mild, severe and critical cases of coronavirus disease 2019 seem to lead to substantial morbidity, including intensive care unit admission with prolonged hospital stay, intubation, mechanical ventilation, and even death. Although there are recent reports regarding the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on pregnancy, there is a lack of information regarding the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnant vs nonpregnant women.

Objective

We aimed to describe the outcomes of severe and critical cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnant vs nonpregnant, reproductive-aged women.

Study Design

This is a multicenter, retrospective, case-control study of women with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection hospitalized with severe or critical coronavirus disease 2019 in 4 academic medical centers in New York City and 1 in Philadelphia between March 12, 2020, and May 5, 2020. The cases consisted of pregnant women admitted specifically for severe or critical coronavirus disease 2019 and not for obstetrical indications. The controls consisted of reproductive-aged, nonpregnant women admitted for severe or critical coronavirus disease 2019. The primary outcome was a composite morbidity that includes the following: death, a need for intubation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, or a need for high-flow nasal cannula O₂ supplementation. The secondary outcomes included intensive care unit admission, length of stay, a need for discharge to long-term acute care facilities, and discharge with a home O₂ requirement.

Results

A total of 38 pregnant women with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed infections were admitted to 5 institutions specifically for coronavirus disease 2019, 29 (76.3%) meeting the criteria for severe disease status and 9 (23.7%) meeting the criteria for critical disease status. The mean age and body mass index were markedly higher in the nonpregnant control group. The nonpregnant cohort also had an increased frequency of preexisting medical comorbidities, including diabetes, hypertension, and coronary artery disease. The pregnant women were more likely to experience the primary outcome when compared with the nonpregnant control group (34.2% vs 14.9%; P=.03; adjusted odds ratio, 4.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2–18.2). The pregnant patients experienced higher rates of intensive care unit admission (39.5% vs 17.0%; P<.01; adjusted odds ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.5–17.5). Among the pregnant women who underwent delivery, 72.7% occurred through cesarean delivery and the mean gestational age at delivery was 33.8±5.5 weeks in patients with severe disease status and 35±3.5 weeks in patients with critical coronavirus disease 2019 status.

Conclusion

Pregnant women with severe and critical coronavirus disease 2019 are at an increased risk for certain morbidities when compared with nonpregnant controls. Despite the higher comorbidities of diabetes and hypertension in the nonpregnant controls, the pregnant cases were at an increased risk for composite morbidity, intubation, mechanical ventilation, and intensive care unit admission. These findings suggest that pregnancy may be associated with a worse outcome in women with severe and critical cases of coronavirus disease 2019. Our study suggests that similar to other viral infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, pregnant women may be at risk for greater morbidity and disease severity.

Post-intensive care syndrome

Thanks to advances in intensive care, number of patients discharged from intensive care units is increasing. Along with that, there is also growing interest in long-term outcomes monitoring. A large proportion of patients suffers from cognitive, psychiatric and physical disabilities after discharge from intensive care unit. A set of these disabilities is called Post-intensive care syndrome (PICS). Along with patients, also their relatives could be affected, especially by mental disorders (PICS-Family, PICS-F). Long term or permanent consequences can lead to the loss of self-sufficiency, reduced quality of life, frequent rehospitalizations and numerous other health and economical consequences. A set of preventive procedures, applied during ICU hospitalization, is essential in preventing the development of PICS. In particular, prevention of extensive sedation, delirium management and early mobilization and thorough rehabilitation is needed. A much discussed topic is further outpatient monitoring of discharged patients in various post-intensive care facilities.

Early clinical factors predicting the development of critical disease in Japanese patients with COVID-19: A single-center, retrospective, observational study

The factors predicting the progression of coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) from mild to moderate to critical are unclear. We retrospectively evaluated risk factors for disease progression in Japanese patients with COVID‐19. Seventy‐four patients with laboratory‐confirmed COVID‐19 were hospitalized in our hospital between February 20, 2020, and June 10, 2020. We excluded asymptomatic, non‐Japanese, and pediatric patients. We divided patients into the stable group and the progression group (PG; requiring mechanical ventilation). We compared the clinical factors. We established the cutoff values (COVs) for significantly different factors via receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and identified risk factors by univariate regression. We enrolled 57 patients with COVID‐19 (median age 52 years, 56.1% male). The median time from symptom onset to admission was 8 days. Seven patients developed critical disease (PG: 12.2%), two (3.5%) of whom died; 50 had stable disease. Univariate logistic analysis identified an elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level (COV: 309 U/l), a decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; COV: 68 ml/min), lymphocytopenia (COV: 980/μl), and statin use as significantly associated with disease progression. However, in the Cox proportional hazards analysis, lymphocytopenia at admission was not significant. We identified three candidate risk factors for progression to critical COVID‐19 in adult Japanese patients: statin use, elevated LDH level, and decreased eGFR.

To evaluate risk factors for disease progression in Japanese patients with COVID‐19, we examined seventy‐four patients with laboratory‐confirmed COVID‐19.

Seven patients (12.2%) developed critical disease requiring mechanical ventilation, two (3.5%) of whom died.

We identified three candidate risk factors for progression to critical COVID‐19 in adult Japanese patients: statin use elevated LDH level and decreased eGFR.

Critically-ill pediatric patients with COVID-19. An update

The COVID-19 pandemic has grabbed worldwide attention. The different national governments are making an effort to optimize resources and provide effective treatments inasmuch as they are supported by the evidence, at a rate of production in line with the pressing needs. In the field of pediatrics, COVID-19 has a low severity rate compared to the adult population. Approximately 6 % of cases present with a severe course, accounting for patients younger than 1 year and/or with underlying conditions. The therapeutic approach to pediatric patients with COVID-19 is unclear. The small number of pediatric cases hinders the possibility of making evidence-based recommendations for criticallyill patients. The objective of this review is to summarize the different current publications about the clinical course of COVID-19 and its management in critically-ill pediatric patients.

[Clinical features of severe or critical ill patients with COVID-19]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the clinical features of severe or critical ill adult patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

METHODS

The clinical data of 75 patients with severe or critical COVID-19 in Honghu People's Hospital from January to March in 2020 were collected.

RESULTS

Of the 75 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, 41 were male (54.67%) and 34 were female (45.33%) with a mean age of 67.53 ±12.37 years; 43 patients had severe and 32 had critical COVID-19, and 49.3% of the patients had underlying diseases. The main clinical manifestations included fever (78.67%) and coughing (70.67%). Compared with the severe patients, the critically ill patients had higher proportions of patients over 60 years old with elevated white blood cell count, increased prothrombin time, and higher levels of hsCRP, PCT, D-dimer, ALT, LDH, cTnI and NT-proBNP. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that an age over 60 years, leukocytosis, hs-CRP elevation, prolonged prothrombin time, and increased levels of D-dimer, NT-proBNP and cTnI were associated with severe COVID-19. Multivariate logistic regression showed that an age over 60 years (OR=8.165, 95% CI: 1.483-45.576, P=0.017), prolonged prothrombin time (OR=7.516, 95% CI: 2.568-21.998, P=0.006) and elevated NT-proBNP (OR=6.194, 95% CI: 1.305-29.404, P=0.022) were independent risk factors for critical type of COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

An age over 60 years, a prolonged prothrombin time and elevated NT-proBNP level are important clinical features of critically ill patients with COVID-19, and can be deemed as early warning signals for critical conditions of the disease.

[Prognostic model of small sample critical diseases based on transfer learning]

Aiming at the problem that the small samples of critical disease in clinic may lead to prognostic models with poor performance of overfitting, large prediction error and instability, the long short-term memory transferring algorithm (transLSTM) was proposed. Based on the idea of transfer learning, the algorithm leverages the correlation between diseases to transfer information of different disease prognostic models, constructs the effictive model of target disease of small samples with the aid of large data of related diseases, hence improves the prediction performance and reduces the requirement for target training sample quantity. The transLSTM algorithm firstly uses the related disease samples to pretrain partial model parameters, and then further adjusts the whole network with the target training samples. The testing results on MIMIC-Ⅲ database showed that compared with traditional LSTM classification algorithm, the transLSTM algorithm had 0.02-0.07 higher AUROC and 0.05-0.14 larger AUPRC, while its number of training iterations was only 39%-64% of the traditional algorithm. The results of application on sepsis revealed that the transLSTM model of only 100 training samples had comparable mortality prediction performance to the traditional model of 250 training samples. In small sample situations, the transLSTM algorithm has significant advantages with higher prediciton accuracy and faster training speed. It realizes the application of transfer learning in the prognostic model of critical disease with small samples.

Multicenter study on the prognosis associated with respiratory support for children with acute hypoxic respiratory failure

The objective of the present study was to explore the factors influencing the outcomes related to respiratory support of children with acute hypoxic respiratory failure (AHRF) in 30 hospitals. This was a non-controlled prospective and collaborative multicenter clinical study conducted from June, 2010 to May, 2011 (each hospital for 12 consecutive months). Children aged from 29 days to 6 years and who met the diagnostic standards of AHRF were enrolled as subjects for the study. After patients were enrolled, general parameters including disease diagnosis, treatment and prognosis were recorded. Then we analyzed the differences in prognosis and respiratory therapy of patients with AHRF. During the study period, 13,906 cases of AHRF were admitted among the 30 hospitals, accounting for 75.3% of the total number of patients with AHRF. The proportion in different hospitals ranged from 16 to 98%. A total of 492 children with hypoxic respiratory failure were admitted among the 30 hospitals. The prevalence rate was 3.54%, and the incidence of AHRF in each hospital was 4.54%. Tidal volume and respiratory support treatment were compared with the results from a 2006 study, and the differences were statistically significant in positive end-expiratory pressure (5 vs. 4, P=0.018), fraction of inspire O₂ (0.5 vs. 0.4, P<0.001), pressure of artery O₂ (70 vs. 60 mmHg, P<0.001) and peak inspiratory pressure (20 vs. 24 cm H₂Ο, P<0.001). In conclusion, academic background and the level of regional economic development are factors which influence the prognosis of children with AHRF. On the basis of unapparent differences between academic background and the level of regional economic development, there is a substantial difference in the prognosis from different forms of respiratory support management for AHRF. Therefore, it is essential to develop respiratory support and the level of critical management of pediatric intensive care units.