The Hidden Economic Consequences of Migraine to the UK Government: Burden-of-Disease Analysis Using a Fiscal Framework

Background: Migraine is a highly prevalent and incapacitating neurological disorder associated with the highest global disability burden in people aged 15 to 49 years. Europe has the fourth-highest prevalence of migraine, after North America, South America, and Central America, and above Asia and Africa. Migraine leads to relatively modest direct healthcare expenditure but has substantial indirect costs due to reduced productivity. Methods: The economic burden of migraine was estimated in comparison with the general population of the United Kingdom (UK) using an analytical fiscal modeling framework applying the government cost perspective. Published measures of migraine's impact on labor participation were applied to rates of economic activity/inactivity of the general population. The model estimates lifetime changes to earnings from employment, direct and indirect taxes paid, and financial support requirements over the life course. Incremental differences between those affected and unaffected by migraine are reported as net fiscal consequences to public accounts. Fiscal costs are reported as the discounted average per capita over a 20-year time horizon and for the entire annual UK cohort with prevalent migraine. Results: People affected by migraine are more likely to be absent from work, unemployed, and disabled, and to retire early. A 44-year-old individual affected by migraine was associated with £19 823 in excess fiscal costs to the UK government, £1379 per year living with the condition, compared with someone not affected by the disease. Annually, migraine was estimated to represent £12.20 billion to the public economy, approximately £130.63 per migraine episode. The model predicted annual productivity losses in the health and social care workforce to be £2.05 billion and total annual productivity losses to be over £5.81 billion. Conclusions: This fiscal analysis monetizes the occupational consequences of migraine to the UK government, both in terms of lost tax revenue and transfer payments. The findings are substantial and useful to characterize disease severity and to inform the body of evidence considered by decision makers appraising the cost-effectiveness of health technologies.

A review on the current application of light-emitting diodes for microalgae cultivation and its fiscal analysis

Microalgae are the promising source of products having a low and high economic value that include feedstock and vitamin supplements. Presently, their cultivation is being carried out by using sunlight in the open raceway ponds. However, this process has disadvantages like fluctuations in irradiance of the sunlight due to climatic changes and bad weather. Artificial lights, exploiting light-emitting diodes are beneficial in increasing the volumetric productivity of the microalgal biomass as it provides continuous illumination in the photobioreactors and assist in the external and internal design. However, the application of light-emitting diodes accrues high input costs. Though the cost of light-emitting diodes was estimated long ago, there is no recent economic analysis of the same. This study aims to enlist the applications of light-emitting diodes in microalgal cultivation with reference to internally illuminated photobioreactors coupled with the evaluation of the cost and energy balance of the artificial lights. The calculation shows that the electrical energy cost incurred during the application of light-emitting diodes for microalgae cultivation is approximately USD 15.19 kg^-1 DW. The collective fraction of electrical energy transformed into chemical energy (microalgae biomass) is around 6-8%. The cost of the light-emitting diodes can be decreased by the application of an Arduino-based automated control system to control the power supply to LEDs, photovoltaic powered photobioreactors and additional light. These techniques of input cost reduction have also been explored deeply in the present study. As estimated, they can reduce the cost of light-emitting diodes by 50%.HighlightsDiscussion on the current application of light-emitting diodes for microalgae cultivationA broad discussion on internally illuminated photobioreactors and their modificationsMicroalgae cultivation cost exploiting LEDs' is around USD 15.19 kg^-1 DWNet conservation of electrical energy during the cultivation process is 6-8%Photovoltaic powered PBRs and Arduino microcontrollers will decrease cultivation cost.

Comparing the Fiscal Consequences of Controlled and Uncontrolled Osteoarthritis Pain Applying a UK Public Economic Perspective

Background: Individuals experiencing osteoarthritis (OA) pain can pose significant costs for governments due to reduced work activity in these individuals and increasing reliance on public support benefits. In this analysis we capture the broader economic impact of OA pain by applying a government perspective, public economic framework to assess controlled and uncontrolled pain. Methods: We used a Markov model to compare labour market participation in people with uncontrolled OA hip or knee pain compared to a cohort with controlled OA pain. The likelihood of employment, long-term sickness, disability, and early retirement in those with controlled pain used publicly available UK data. The relative effect of uncontrolled OA pain on fiscal outcomes is drawn from peer reviewed publications reporting reduced work activity and reliance on public benefits for people with uncontrolled OA pain. Lost tax revenue was derived using UK tax rates and national insurance contributions applied to annual earnings. Social benefit rules were applied to calculate government financial support to individuals. Health-care costs were calculated based on estimates from an UK observational study. The base case analysis compared the projected lost tax revenue and transfer payments for a 50-year-old cohort with severe OA pain, retiring at age 65. Results: For a 50-year-old individual with moderate uncontrolled OA pain with 15-years remaining work expectancy, the model estimated a £62 383 reduction in employment earnings, a £24 307 reduction in tax contributions and a need for £16 034 in government benefits, compared to a person with controlled OA pain. In people with severe uncontrolled OA pain incremental foregone earnings were estimated to be £126 384, £44 925 were not paid through taxation and £25 829 were received in public benefits, compared to the controlled pain cohort. Health-care costs represented 13% and 12% of all OA-related fiscal cost in the moderate uncontrolled OA pain and severe uncontrolled OA pain comparison, respectively. Conclusions: For governments, maintaining an active workforce is paramount to maintaining economic growth and reducing spending on government programs. The approach described here can be used to augment cost-effectiveness models to inform a range of stakeholders of benefits attributed to controlled OA pain.

Estimating the government public economic benefits attributed to investing in assisted reproductive technology: a South African case study

Limited resources and high treatment costs are arguments often used in many public health systems in low- and middle-income countries to justify providing limited treatments for people with infertility. In this analysis, we apply a government public economic perspective to evaluate public subsidy for in-vitro fertilization (IVF) in South Africa. A fiscal model was developed that considered lifetime direct and indirect taxes paid and government transfers received by a child conceived by IVF. The model was constructed from public data sources and was adjusted for mortality, age-specific educational costs, participation in the informal economy, proportions of persons receiving social grants, and health costs. Based on current proportions of individuals receiving social grants and average payments, including education and health costs, we estimate each citizen will receive ZAR513,165 (USD35,587) in transfers over their lifetime. Based on inflated age-specific earnings, we estimate lifetime direct and indirect taxes paid per citizen of ZAR452,869 (USD31,405) and ZAR494,521 (USD34,294), respectively, which also includes adjustments for the proportions of persons participating in the informal economy. The lifetime net tax after deducting transfers was estimated to be ZAR434,225 (USD31,112) per person. Based on the average IVF investment cost needed to achieve one live birth, the fiscal return on investment (ROI) for the South African Government is 5.64. Varying the discount rate from 4% to 7%, the ROI ranged from 9.54 to 1.53, respectively. Positive economic benefits can emanate from public financing of IVF. The fiscal analytic framework described here can be a useful approach for health services to evaluate future public economic benefits.

Estimating the public economic consequences of cardiovascular disease-attributable events and evolocumab treatment in Australia

BACKGROUND

Following cardiovascular events, individuals often make choices about their working life that pose fiscal costs for the government in relation to lost tax revenue, increasing disability or early retirement. We evaluate the fiscal consequences for the Australian Government in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with low-density lipoprotein >3.3 mmol/L after the maximum tolerated doses of a statin or when contraindicated or intolerant to statins, compared to evolocumab added to the standard of care.

METHODS

The natural history of patients with ASCVD was evaluated using a multi-state Markov cohort model comparing evolocumab with current treatment practices. Published rates for the likelihood of being disabled and retiring prematurely in patients experiencing stroke or myocardial infarction were modeled. Reported government costs for annual disability payments and lost tax revenues from the nationally representative STINMOD + data set were used to estimate the fiscal consequences associated with attributable ASCVD events.

RESULTS

The incremental tax gain associated with evolocumab in someone aged 40, 50 or 60 results in additional tax revenues of Aus$15,716, Aus$9,810 and Aus$4,217, respectively. Cost-savings attributed to disability payments of Aus$3,483, Aus$2,495 and Aus$4,619 were observed in those aged 40, 50 and 60, respectively. The ratio of evolocumab to fiscal benefits indicates that up to 52% of evolocumab costs are offset by future lifetime taxes paid and reduced social benefits payments in those treated aged 40. The ratio of fiscal benefits to costs in treating those aged 50 and 60 were 37% and 31%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Applying a cross-sectorial government perspective budget impact assessment improves our understanding of fiscal changes attributed to ASCVD based on changes in premature mortality and work activity and how this influences lifetime tax contributions and public benefits. The main cost driver observed was associated with reduced ASCVD events that enabled people to remain productive and paying taxes.

The fiscal consequences of public health investments in disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of multiple sclerosis in Sweden

Background and aims: The economic consequences of multiple sclerosis (MS) are broader than those observed within the health system. The progressive nature suggests that people will not be able to live a normal productive life and will gradually require public benefits to maintain living standards. This study investigates the public economic impact of MS and how investments in disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) influence the lifetime costs to government attributed to changes in lifetime tax revenue and disability benefits based on improved health status linked to delayed disease progression.Methods: Disease progression rates from previous MS Markov cohort models were applied to interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab using a public economic framework. The established relationship between expanded disability status scale and work-force participation, annual earnings, and disability rates for each DMT were applied. Subsequently, we assessed the effect of DMTs on discounted governmental costs consisting of health service costs, social insurance and disability costs, and changes in lifetime tax revenues.Results: Fiscal benefits attributed to informal care and community services savings for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were SEK340,387, SEK486,837, SEK257,330, and SEK958,852 compared to placebo, respectively. Tax revenue gains linked to changes in lifetime productivity for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were estimated to be SEK27,474, SEK39,659, SEK21,661, and SEK75,809, with combined fiscal benefits of cost savings and tax revenue increases of SEK410,039, SEK596,592, SEK326,939, and SEK1,208,023, respectively.Conclusion: The analysis described here illustrates the broader public economic benefits for government attributed to changes in disease status. The lifetime social insurance transfer costs were highest in non-treated patients, and lower social insurance costs were demonstrated with DMTs. These findings suggest that focusing cost-effectiveness analysis only on health costs will likely underestimate the value of DMTs.

Quantifying the broader economic consequences of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Germany applying a government perspective framework

HPV infections can cause substantial burden in females and males as it is associated with several genital cancers, in addition to genital warts. Traditional economic evaluations often focus on quantifying cost-effectiveness, however, it is increasingly recognized that vaccinations may generate broader benefits not captured in cost-effectiveness analysis. Τhe aim of this study was to evaluate the broader economic consequences associated with HPV vaccination in males and females and to conduct a lifetime cost-benefit analysis of investing in universal vaccination in Germany from the perspective of government. Methodologies from generational accounting, human capital and health economics were combined to estimate the broader economic consequences of HPV vaccination including the fiscal impact for the government. A cohort model was developed simulating the medical costs and average lifetime fiscal transfers between the government and 12-year-old immunized and non-immunized males and females. To estimate tax revenue attributed to vaccination-related changes in morbidity and mortality, direct and indirect tax rates were linked to differences in age- and gender-specific earnings. Based on HPV vaccination costs, the base case cost-benefit analysis demonstrated that investing <euro>1 in universal HPV vaccination could yield <euro>1.7 in gross tax revenue over the lifetime of the cohorts. After taking into consideration the governmental transfers, universal HPV vaccination in Germany could result in incremental positive net discounted taxes (i.e. tax revenue-transfers) from <euro>62 million for the German government. The vaccination of males and females with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine is likely to have positive effects on public finances.