Event simulation and external validation applied in published health economic models for obesity: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to determine methodological variations in the event simulation approaches of published health economic decision models, in the field of obesity, and to investigate whether their predictiveness and validity were investigated via external event validation techniques, which investigate how well the model reproduces reality.

AREAS COVERED

A systematic review identified a total of 87 relevant papers, of which 72 that simulated obesity-associated events were included. Most frequently simulated events were coronary heart disease (≈ 83%), type 2 diabetes (≈ 74%), and stroke (≈ 66%). Only for ten published model-based health economic assessments in obesity an external event validation was performed (14%; 10 of 72), and only for one the predictiveness and validity of the event simulation was investigated in a cohort of obese subjects.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

We identified a wide range of obesity related event simulation approaches. Published obesity models lack information on the predictive quality and validity of the applied event simulation approaches. Further work on comparing and validating these event simulation approaches is required to investigate their predictiveness and validity, which will offer guidance future modelling in the field of obesity.

Current process and future path for health economic assessment of pharmaceuticals in France

The Social Security Funding Law for 2012 introduced the Economic and Public Health Assessment Committee (Commission Evaluation Economique et de Santé Publique, or CEESP) in the Social Security Code as a specialised committee affiliated with the Haute Autorité de Santé in charge of providing recommendations and health economic opinions. This article provides an in-depth description of the CEESP's structure and working methods, and analyses the impact of health economic assessment on market access of drugs in France. It also points out the areas of uncertainty and the conflicting rules following the introduction of the health economic assessment in France. The authors also provide their personal opinion on the likely future of health economic assessment of drugs in France, including the possible merge of the CEESP and the Transparency Committee, the implementation of a French threshold, and the extension of health economic assessment to a larger number of products.