Counting the lifetime cost of obesity: Analysis based on national England data

AIM

Obesity has a significant impact on all-cause mortality rate and overall health care resource use (HCRU). These outcomes are also strongly linked to age, sex and local deprivation of the population. We aimed to establish the lifetime costs of obesity by demographic group/geographic area using published mortality rates and HCRU use for integrated care boards (ICB) in England in the context of costs of therapeutic intervention.

METHODS

Population and expected mortality rates by age, sex and deprivation were obtained from national data. Obesity class prevalence was taken from the health of the nation study. The published impact of obesity by age, group, sex and deprivation on mortality and HCRU were applied to estimate life years lost and lifetime HCRU [by sex, age band and body mass index (BMI) class for each ICB]. The year 2019 was chosen as the study basis data to avoid influences of COVID-19 pandemic on obesity rates with application of 2022/23 HCRU values. Outcomes including prevalence, deaths, life years lost, HCRU and lifetime HCRU were compared by age and sex groups across four BMI classes normal/underweight (BMI <25 kg/m2 ), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2 ), obese class I and II (30-39.9 kg/m2 ), and obese class III (≥40), with benchmarking being set against all population being BMI <25 kg/m2 overall and by each of the 42 ICBs. We also associated future life with deaths to provide an estimate of 'future life years lost' occurring each year.

RESULTS

Total population aged >16 years was 45.4 million (51% female).

PREVALENCE

13.7 million (28% of the total adult population) had a BMI ≥30 mg/m2 and BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were 1.50 million (12%) of these 1.0 million (68%) were female and of these 0.6 million 40% were women aged 16-49 years. In addition, 35% of those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were in the top deprivation quintile (i.e. overall 20%). Mortality was based on expected deaths of 518K/year, and modelling suggested that if a BMI <25 kg/m2 was achieved in all individuals, the death rate would fall by 63K to 455K/year for the English population (12% reduction). For those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 the predicted reduction was 12K deaths (54% lower); while in those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 72% of deaths were linked to obesity. For future life years lost, we estimated 2.5 years were lost in people with BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 6.7 years when BMI ≥40 kg/m2 . However, for those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 , 8.3 years were lost. HCRU, for weight reduction, the annual HCRU decrease from BMI ≥40 kg/m2 to BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 was £342 per person and from BMI 30-39.9 to 25-29.9 kg/m2 the reduction was £316/person. However, lifetime costs were similar because of reduced life expectancy for obese individuals. In quality adjusted life years (QALY), overall, 791 689 future life years were lost (13.1% of all) in people with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and were related to excess weight. When the NICE £30 000 per QALY value was applied to the estimated total 791 689 future life years lost then the potential QALY value reduction lost was equivalent to £24 billion/year or £522/person in the obese population. For morbidly obese men and women the potential QALY value lost was £2864/person/year. Regarding geography, across the 42 ICBs, we observed significant variation in the prevalence of BMI ≥40 (1.8%-4.3%), excess mortality (11.6%-15.4%) and HCRU linked to higher BMI (7.2%-8.8%). The areas with the greatest impact on HCRU were in the north-west, north-east and Midlands of England, while the south shows less impact.

CONCLUSION

The expected increases in annual HCRU because of obesity, when considered over a lifetime, are being mitigated by the increased mortality of obese individuals. Our data suggest that simple short-term HCRU reduction brought about through BMI reduction will be insufficient to fund additional specialist weight reduction interventions. The HRCUs associated with BMI are not in most cases related to short-term health conditions. They are a cumulative result over a number of years, so for age 16-49 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £325/year for women and £80/year for men but this might not have immediately occurred within that year. For those aged >70 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £777/year for women and £796/year for men but also may not be manifest within that year. However, for the morbidly obese men and women, the potential QALY value lost was £2864 per person per year with the potential for these funds to be applied to intensive weight management programmes, including pharmacotherapy.

A theory of triage

This paper provides a general framework for conceptualizing triage for intensive care unit admissions in public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic. It applies this framework to some of the guidelines issued during the pandemic and addresses some controversial issues, including the role of age, the use of lives or life years, and the relevance of quality of life considerations. The paper defends a view on which triage protocols for public health emergencies should aim to maximize the number of life years saved, may take into account age as a proxy, and should ignore quality of life considerations.

Unequal Access to Newly Registered Cancer Drugs Leads to Potential Loss of Life-Years in Europe

Background. Many new cancer medicines have been developed that can improve patients’ outcomes. However, access to these agents comes later in Europe than in the United States (US). The aim of this study is to assess the access in Europe to newly registered cancer drugs and to get more insight in the implications of these variations for patients. Methods. A retrospective database study was conducted. Analyses involved 12 cancer drugs and 28 European countries in the period 2011–2018. Time to patient access, speed of drug uptake, and the potential loss of life years due to a delay in access have been studied. Results. Marketing approval for the cancer drugs came on average 242 days later in Europe than in the US, and actual patient access varied extensively across Europe. The average time to market in Europe was 403 days (range 17–1187 days). The delay in patient access of ipilimumab and abiraterone may have led to a potential loss of more than 30,000 life years. Conclusion. It takes a long time for patients to get access to newly registered cancer drugs and there is great variation in access. The health outcomes can be substantially improved by faster processes.

Disease burden of schizophrenia patients visiting a Chinese regional mental health centre

Aim & methods: A decision-analytic model was constructed to simulate a real-world cohort of Chinese patients visiting a Chinese regional mental health center for long-term health outcomes and direct medical costs. Results: When compared with age and gender-matched general population, the Chinese patients with schizophrenia were associated with reduced overall survival by 20.6 years (27.6 vs 48.2 years) and reduced quality-adjusted life years (QALY) by 18.4 QALY (18.4 vs 36.8 QALY), respectively, and increased lifetime direct medical costs by about three-times (US$84,324 vs 33,387 as of 31 December 2017) on average. Conclusion: The burden of schizophrenia was mainly driven by the mortality associated with relapsed schizophrenia and direct medical costs for schizophrenia in local mental health rehabilitation institutes.

Radiation risk and mammographic screening of women from 40 to 49 years of age: effect on breast cancer rates and years of life

The aim of this study was to evaluate the carcinogenic risks associated with radiation in mass mammographic screening. Assessment was in terms of breast cancer mortality and years of life for a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 women. Data were obtained on incidence, mortality and life expectancy for the female population of Stockholm. With a screening interval of 18 months at ages 40-49 years, a total absorbed dose to the breast of 13 mGy per invited woman; and an annual breast cancer reduction of 25% per year 7 years from screening start, the net number of years gained was at least 2800. However, using the highest absorbed dose reported in routine mammographic screening in Sweden (approximately 3 mGy per view), and the highest reported radiation risk in the literature, a programme entailing annual screening with 2 views would require at least a 20% annual reduction in breast cancer mortality to give a net benefit in both the number of years of life gained and number of breast cancer deaths avoided. This observation supports the conclusion that exposures with low absorbed dose are essential when performing mass screening with mammography among young women.